Gambling 101 - How winning at 52.5% rate will make you money

Discipline.  We have been constantly reminded of the importantance of this key gambling principle the past few weeks.  Time for D$ to apply his math degree to explain further.

Sports are played by humans beings with millions of variables during each game and it is next to impossible to handicap each game correctly.   A few key plays can dictate the entire outcome of a game.  Gambling well is not easy and winning at a 70-90% rate, regardless of what some jackoff tells you, just doesn't happen long term.  The really sexy number is 52.5%.   That is the winning rate a gambler needs to make profit.  That's right, pretty much a coin flip.  Don't believe me.... follow along.

Most experienced gamblers know to only make straight up bets using only 1%-5% of their bank roll per play.  Let's say you have a $5500.00 bank roll. and bet units of 2%.  This means your betting unit is $110.00 per play.  (2% x $5500).   We assume standard 10 cent vig on your bets - i.e. $110.00 to win $100.

If making plays on the NFL over the course of a 17 week season, or say 200 games, being correct on 52.5% of your plays will result in :

Winning 105 plays = $10,500.00       (200 plays x 52.5% x $100/play)
Losing     95 plays =  -$10,450.00      (200 plays x 52.5% x -$110/play)

Net Amount = +$50.00.  
We hope to help make your win percentage over 52.5%, but now you can understand why a good long term approach can result in profits.


Why stay away from big parlay and the sexy teaser bets?
Betting on parlays is tempting because of their huge potential payout, but they rarely win.  Putting down $20.00 each week would mean spending an additiona $340.00 for the season and result in a net loss unless one of the low percentage parlays actually wins.   Your winning % on straight up plays needs to jump to 53.5% or 107 wins to start profiting again on 200 plays.  Keeping the parlays at $5.00/week for the dream payoff drops the cost down to $85.00 for the season and likely keeps more cheese in your pocket.


Riding Bill Simmons Picks
If you have been following the ESPN Sport Guy, Bill Simmons, he is playing the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest picking NFL games.  Bill selects 5 games each week ATS and has an amazing 35-23-2 record so far (60.3%).  Betting $110 on each of his picks (60 plays) would have yielded :

35 wins x $100 = $3500.00
23 losses x $110 = $2,530.00
TOTAL NET PROFIT = $970.00!  
(or a 14.7% return on your investment which is better than the stock market over the past 3 months!)

For the season on all his plays he is currently 96-75-5 or 56.1%.  This would be a tidy $1350.00 profit on the season heading into Week #13.  Again, not to shabby.


The numbers have been thrown at you to understand that you don't need to win at 70% to make huge money.  Going 3-2 each week is good - 60% is an amazing number and results in a strong payout.  Chasing action and betting without doing your homework results in lost money over the long run.  The concepts mentioned here apply best to football and basketball, but similar theories exist for the other sports too.  You don't have to put huge risky plays out there to yield a solid return.  Stay Discliplined my friends, Stay Disciplined.

D$ Out.