NFL Week 16 - Crunch Time

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 25 TIME
TITANS (-3) over Chargers (Loss)

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 27 TIME
FALCONS (-8.0) over Bills (WIN)
BENGALS (-14.0) over Chiefs (Loss)
BROWNS (-3.0) over Raiders (WIN)
Seahawks (+14.0) over PACKERS (Loss)
Ravens (+3.0) over STEELERS (Push)
DOLPHINS (-2.0) over Texans (Loss)
PATRIOTS (-10.0) over Jaguars (WIN)
SAINTS (-14.0) over Bucs (Loss)
GIANTS (-8.5) over Panthers (Loss)
EAGLES (-7.0) over Broncos (Loss)
CARDINALS (-14) over Rams (WIN)
NINERS (-14.0) over Lions (Push)
JETS (+4.5) over Colts (WIN)
Cowboys (-7.0) over REDSKINS (WIN)

MONDAY, DECEMBER 28 TIME (ET)
VIKINGS (-8.0) over Bears (Loss)

Records for NFL Week #16 ATS : 6-8-2

YTD Record ATS: 119-116-5

NFL Week 15 - Laying Down Your Cheese

Thursday December 17th - 8:20pm EST:
Colts (-3.0) over JAGUARS (WIN)

Saturday December 19th - 8:20pm EST:
SAINTS (-7.0) over Cowboys (Loss)

Sunday December 20th:
BILLS (+7.5) over Patriots (WIN)
Cardinals (-11.0) over LIONS (Loss)
TITANS (-4.0) over Dolphins (Loss)
CHIEFS (-3.0) over Browns (Loss)
JETS (-7.0) over Falcons (Loss)
RAVENS (-11.0) over Bears (WIN)
EAGLES (-10.0) over Niners (WIN)
RAMS (-14.0) over Texans (Loss)
Packers (+3.0) over STEELERS (WIN)
RAIDERS (+14.0) over Broncos (WIN)
Bengals (+7.0) over CHARGERS (WIN)
Bucs (+7.0) over SEAHAWKS (WIN)
Vikings (-7.0) over PANTHERS (Loss)

MONDAY, DECEMBER 21 TIME (ET)
REDSKINS (-10.0) over Giants (Loss)

Record ATS for Week #15 : 8-8-0

Record ATS for Season : 113-108-3

Laying Down Your Cheese - NFL Week 14

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 10 TIME (ET)
BROWNS (+13.0) over Steelers (WIN)

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 13 TIME (ET)
Broncos (+7.0) over COLTS 1:00 PM (Loss)
VIKINGS (+7.0) over Bengals 1:00 PM (Win)
Jets (-3.5) over BUCS 1:00 PM (Win)
Bills (-1.0) over CHIEFS 1:00 PM (Win)
Packers (-3.5) over BEARS 1:00 PM (Win)
Saints (-9.5) over FALCONS 1:00 PM (Loss)
Lions (+13.5) over RAVENS 1:00 PM (Loss)
Dolphins (+3.0) over JAGUARS 1:00 PM (Win)
Panthers (+13.0) over PATRIOTS 1:00 PM (Win)
TEXANS (-6.0) over Seahawks 1:00 PM (Win)
Rams (+13.0) over TITANS 1:00 PM (Loss)
RAIDERS (+1.0) over Redskins 4:05 PM (Loss)
Chargers (+3.0) over COWBOYS 4:15 PM (Win)
Eagles (+1.0) over GIANTS 8:20 PM (Win)

MONDAY, DECEMBER 14 TIME (ET)
Cardinals (-3.0) over NINERS 8:30 PM (Loss)

Record for NFL Week #14 ATS : 10-6
Record ATS for Season : 105-100-3

Laying Down Your Cheese - NFL Week 13

Thursday December 3rd:
BILLS (+3.0) over Jets (Loss)

And some early picks for the rest of the week...

Sunday December 6th:
Broncos (+5.0) over CHIEFS (WIN)
Raiders (+15.0) over STEELERS (WIN)
Texans (-1.0) over Jaguars (LOSS)
Titans (+7.0) over COLTS (LOSS)
EAGLES (-5.5) over FALCONS (WIN)
BENGALS (-13.0) over Lions (LOSS)
REDSKINS (+10.0) over Saints (WIN)
Bucs (+5.0) over PANTHERS (LOSS)
BEARS (-9.0) over Rams (LOSS)
Patriots (-5.5) over DOLPHINS (LOSS)
Chargers (-13.0) over BROWNS (LOSS)
SEAHAWKS (+1.0) over 49ers (-1.0) (WIN)
Cowboys (-2.0) over GIANTS (LOSS)
Vikings (-7.0) over CARDINALS (LOSS)

Monday December 7:
PACKERS (-3.0) over Ravens (WIN)

Week #13 ATS: 6-10

Laying Down Your Cheese - NFL Week 12

Turkey Day Games:
Packers (-12) over LIONS (WIN)
DALLAS (-14) over Raiders (WIN)
BRONCOS (+7) over Giants (WIN)

Sunday Games (EST):
TEXANS (+3.5) over Colts (Loss)
BENGALS (-14.0) over Browns (Loss)
EAGLES (-9.5) over Redskins (Loss)
Dolphins (-3.5) over BILLS (Loss)
Seahawks (-3.5) over RAMS (WIN)
FALCONS (-13.0) over Bucs (Loss)
Panthers (+3.0) over JETS (Loss)
49ers (-3.5) over Jaguars (WIN)
CHARGERS (-14.0) over Chiefs (WIN)
VIKINGS (-11.0) over Bears (WIN))
TITANS (-1.0) over Cardinals (WIN)
RAVENS (-3.0) over Steelers (PUSH)

Monday Night Football (EST):
SAINTS (-3.0) over Patriots (WIN)

Record ATS for Week #12: 9-7

Overal record ATS since Week #8: 32-38-3

Laying Down Your Cheese - NFL Week 11

Here is Cover the Spread's staff picks for this week.... good luck:

PANTHERS (-3) over Dolphins (LOSS)
LIONS (-3.5) over Browns (Loss)
JAGUARS (-9.0) over Bills (Loss)
Steelers (-11.0) over CHIEFS (Loss)
RAVENS (+2.5) over Colts (Win)
GIANTS (-7.0) over Falcons (Loss)
PACKERS (-6.0) over 49ers (PUSH)
VIKINGS (-11.0) over Seahawks (Win)
Redskins (+11.0) over COWBOYS (Win)
Saints (-11.0) over BUCS (Win)
Cardinals (-9.0) over RAMS (Loss)
PATRIOTS (-10.5) over Jets (Win)
Bengals (-10.0) over RAIDERS (Loss)
Chargers (-6.0) over BRONCOS (Win)
Eagles (-3.0) over BEARS (Win)
HOUSTON (-4.5) over Titans (Loss)

Record ATS for Week #11: 7-8-1

Teaser for the week: Steelers -3.0, Vikings -4.0, Cardinals -3.0, Patriots -4.5, Redskins +18.0, Bills +15.5
(5 for 6 - thanks to the Steelers! Crap!)

Cover the Spread ATS since NFL Week #8: 23-32-2

Early Lines & Predictions for NFL Week 11

Yikes! Another bad week for the Vegas Whale. Keeping my betting units consistent saved me some cheese after going a dissapointing 3 for 7 in week 10. Feeling a bit like Bill Belichick without the three Superbowls at the moment. Definitely he takes over for Andy Reid as goat of the week... baaah!

Back from a mini-vacation, and focused on delivering some good results this week. Here is the early vegas lines for NFL Week #11 and a prediction for the Thursday night game. Subject to change as the week progresses:

PANTHERS (-3) over Dolphins **Thursday Night
Ronnie Brown goes down with ankle injury - not sure how many points the Dolphins can score without him in the lineup. The Panthers have all the sudden become a good team. Could always run the ball and now Delholme isn't looking so terrible anymore along with a motivated defense. I know both teams are 4-5 but this matchup looks a little more one-sided - take the home team here.

The rest of the lines look like this....
Browns (+3) @ LIONS, O/U 38
Bills (+8.5) @ JAGUARS, O/U 43
Steelers (-10.0) @ CHIEFS, O/U 40
Colts (Pick) @ RAVENS, O/U 44
Falconts (+6.0) @ GIANTS, O/U 46
49ers (+7.0) @ PACKERS, O/U 42
Seahawks (+11.0) @ VIKINGS, O/U 46.5
Redskins (+11.0) @ COWBOYS, O/U 41.5
Saints (-11.0) @ BUCS, O/U 51
Cardinals (-9.0) over RAMS O/U 47
Jets (+10.5) @ PATRIOTS , O/U 45
Bengals (-10.0) @ RAIDERS, O/U 36
Chargers (-3.0) @ BRONCOS, O/U TBD
Eagles (-3.0) @ BEARS, O/U 45
Titans (+5.0) @ HOUSTON, O/U 48 **MNF

Laying Down Your Cheese - NFL Week 10

Here are the Vegas Whales Picks for NFL Week#10. Gonna be in Tofino for the weekend, so games going up a bit earlier. Nice to see Bill Simmon and I are pretty close in our thinking. He has the Jaguars, Chargers and his beloved Bengals pulling upsets, otherwise very similar thoughts. Here are the picks:

49ERS (-3.0) over Bears (WIN)
NY JETS (-7.0) over Jaguars (Loss)
Broncos (-3.5) over REDSKINS (Loss)
STEELERS (-7.0) over Bengals (Loss)
TITANS (-7.0) over Bills (Win)
VIKINGS (-17.0) over Lions (Push)
Saints (-14.0) over RAMS (Loss)
Falcons (-2.0) over PANTHERS (Loss)
DOLPHINS (-10.0) over Buccannears (Loss)
RAIDERS (-2.0) over Chiefs (Loss)
CARDINALS (-9.0) over Seahawks (Win)
Eagles (+3.0) over CHARGERS (Loss)
Cowboys (-3.0) over PACKERS (Loss)
COLTS (-3.0) over Patriots (Loss)
Ravens (-11.0) over BROWNS (Win)

Best 5 Bets: Falcons -2.0, Saints -14, Brocos -3.5, Cowboys -3.0, Ravens -11.0

The Vegas Whale's record ATS for Week 10: 4-10-1

Records for the season: 16-24-1 (YIKES!)

NFL Week 10 - Early Lines & Predictions

15 Games this week including the welcome addition of Thursday night football. Here are the Vegas Whales Picks for NFL Week #10 (Home teams are in caps)

49ERS (-3.0) over Bears
Like the home team in this matchup as mentioned in earlier post. The Bears on a short week having to travel to Candlestick and not convinced the Bears are very good at all. Expect a close game but only have to cover 3 points here.

NY JETS (-7.0) over Jaguars
The Jets will be at home coming off a bye which is a strong betting play. We've been burned way too much by the Jaguars this season so can't bet them anymore. They are not a great team this year and are 1-3 on the road so take the home team here.

Broncos (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Surprised at the lack of respect the Broncos are getting (a 6-2 team) gets versus a very poor Redskins squad (a 2-6 team). No Portis, no Samuels, and no chance of winning here. Take advantage of Vegas on this one.

STEELERS (-7.0) over Bengals
The Steelers are maybe the hottest team in football and with Polamalu back for this rematch, their defense is again one of the best in the league. The Bengals need to prove they can win this type of game and until they do, I ride the Super Bowl champs who will be up for this division contest.

TITANS (-7.0) over Bills
No bet here. The Bills are terrible and if they weren't coming off a bye I would lay money on the Titans in this matchup. Hard to expect a Vince Young run offense to win by at least a touchdown, so will probably stay away from this one with better plays out there this week.

VIKINGS (-17.0) over Lions
Expecting an absolute beat down here. 17 points is a lot to lay down, but if you have seen the Lions play the past couple weeks, you have to like your chances!

Saints (-14.0) over RAMS
Almost exact same type of game as the one above. I know the RAMS are at home and coming off a bye, but com'mon man, its the RAMS! Be surprised if this isn't a 30 point beat down.

Falcons (-2.0) over PANTHERS
I admit some love for the Falcons lately, and was shocked at the small vegas spread on this one. Stack to the box, put your best corner on Steve Smith, and force a Jake Deholme to beat you with his pop-gun arm. I'm hoping that the Falcons show they are solid team this week and will bet accordingly.

DOLPHINS (-10.0) over Buccannears
I am a little worried that the Dolphins could be down emotionally after throwing a lot at the Patriots and coming up short. 10 points is a lot, but TB is not that good so expect a cover, might be some better plays out there this week with 10+ points needed.

RAIDERS (-2.0) over Chiefs
Don't like either team, so not gonna bet the spread here. Probably the better bet would be to take the UNDER 37 on this one based on their last matchup. (Week 2 - Oakland won 13-10.)

CARDINALS (-9.0) over Seahawks
This is the make or break the season game for the Seahawks. I think they are a bad team this year and expect the Cardinals to show they are the class of the NFC West. (Yikes)

Eagles (+3.0) over CHARGERS
Mostly a gut feel on this one, but may change my mind before kickoff. The Chargers were not overly impressive against the Giants other than the last minute drive to win the game. (The Giants are pretty bad too.) Sad to see the dimise of LT. Eagles are such a shizzo team this year - hoping this is a good week for them. Line seems appropriate.

Cowboys (-3.0) over PACKERS
I'm a little scared about the Packers being mad after the embarrassing loss to the Bucs last week. A bit of a rivalry game here too. But I also believe the Pack are not that great of a team this year. Take the boys to cover the small 3 point spread as they seem to be hitting their stride and joining the elite squads in the NFC.

COLTS (-3.0) over Patriots
Watch this one as a fan and stay away from betting either team here. The Patriots want this one, but the Colts will be at home and are among the league's best.

Ravens (-11.0) over BROWNS
Ravens should easily cover against the worst team in football. Too bad ESPN has to show this one on Monday Night Football. Ugh.

NFL Week 10 - The Start of Thursday Night Football

Mid November means Thursday night football is finally back - gotta love being able to watch games three times a week!

This Thursday we got to see the Bears travel across the country to Candlestick Park to play a reeling 49ers squad. Coach Singletary will have his old team in town, and he needs to get his squad to start playing defense like he did back in the day. The 49er offense depends very heavily on Frank Gore as their quarterback play is very suspect and their offensive line is really banged up at the moment.

Opening line has the 49ers as an early 3 point favourite at home. Take the home team here, but don't bet the farm on this one. The Bears are proving they can't compete against any teams of quality - not sure if the 49ers qualify as one - but regardless thinking this contest is shaping up to be a close one.

Goat of the Week - Coach Andy Reid

Wow - A great Sunday Night game was shaping up tonight between the Cowboys and the Eagles. For all of those who believe coaching doesn't have a major affect on the outcome, this game is proof that it most certainly does. Coach Reid completely wasted two timeouts on some questionable challenges which turned out to be vitale down the stretch. Burning your final timeout with 8 minutes to go in a close game is just plain dumb!

Dude unless you got the call from the gambling sharks from Vegas, you certainly cost quite a few gamblers some money this weekend. For that reason you are the Goat of the Week. Baaaaaah to you!

NFL Week 9 - Laying Down Your Cheese

Here are my picks for NFL Week #9 - best bets and 6 game parlay to follow just before kickoff:

Chiefs (+7.0) over JAGUARS (Win)
Ravens (-3.0) over BENGALS (Loss)
Texans (+8.5) over COLTS (Win)
ATLANTA (-10.0) over Washington (Win)
Green Bay (-10.0) over BUCCANEERS (Loss)
Cardinals (+3.0) over BEARS (Win)
PATRIOTS (-11.0) over Dolphins (Loss)
SAINTS (-12.0) over Panthers (Loss)
SEAHAWKS (-10.0) over Lions (Win)
49ERS (-5.0) over Titans (Loss)
Chargers (+4.5) over GIANTS (Win)
EAGLES (-3.0) over Cowboys (Loss)
BRONCOS (+3.0) over Steelers (Loss)

Record ATS for the Week: 6-7
Overall Record ATS since Week #8: 12-14

5 Best Bets: ATLANTA -10, Green Bay -10, Cardinals +3.0, Chargers +4.5, Eagles -3.0
Result: 3-2

6 Game Teaser: JACKSONVILLE -1.0, Houston +14.0, ATLANTA -4.0, Green Bay -4, Arizona +9.0, & Miami (+17.0) Teaser result was 5 for 6 (It's official - GB sucks!)

Good Luck this week.

Bill Simmons Picks for NFL Week #9

Not only did the Cover the Spread staff have a tough week, but so did Bill Simmons. As Bill says in his recent column....

"My Best Record Ever. It's gone. Out the window. And all because my book tour prevented me from properly following football. Or, because I suck at picking games and was destined to go cold. It's one or the other.

Because I'm a glass-half-full kind of guy, I have decided to blame the tour for my picking woes. In 11 days, I went from Washington to Philly to Bristol to Manhattan to Boston to Los Angeles to Chicago to Phoenix to San Francisco to San Diego."

Much like Bill, we are coming back strong this week. Here is Bill's quick picks for NFL #9:


FALCONS (-10) over Redskins
"Most despised owner by his own fans" rankings for November: 1. Snyder; 2. Sterling; 3. Angelos; 4. Cohan; 5. Lerner; 6. Davis; 7. Sarver.

Cards (+3) over BEARS
Just when you think Zona will zig, they zag. And when you think they'll zag, they zig. By the way, Kurt Warner is one game away from passing Joe Namath as the Hall of Fame QB with the most "don't you feel dumb for gambling on me" stinkbombs in NFL history.

Ravens (-3) over BENGALS
A little AFC North revenge. There's a decent chance that Baltimore isn't losing again until Week 16 (at Pittsburgh). Not a reverse jinx, I swear.

Texans (+9) over COLTS
Seems a little high. Also, congrats to Steve Slaton for somehow edging LDT and Matt Forte as this year's biggest fantasy murderer. No small feat. There needs to be a fantasy awards show where these awards are actually handed out. Uh-oh, Erik Kuselias is buying a tux and renting out a banquet hall … somebody stop him! I was just kidding!

Chiefs (+6.5) over JAGS
Will there be 20,000 people at this game? It's a serious question. They should even black out this game from the Red Zone Channel.

Packers (-9.5) over BUCS
Mayday! Mayday! The Josh Freeman 2009 White Flag has been thrown. By the way, Aaron Rodgers is this year's Great Game Against A Bad Team MVP. His stats have no correlation with his actual effectiveness. Even Al Bundy didn't hold his balls this long.

Dolphins (+10) over PATS
When's the last time the Pats played a real team? A month ago? Expect a little rust from my boys. Also, this has all the makings of a classic Belichick "we have some big games coming up, I don't want to give too much away in this one, let's grind out an ugly home win" game. I hate those. Not good for my nervous system.

NINERS (-4) over Titans
The strangest line of the year. I don't get it. Vince Young on the road against a good defense getting just four? Really? We're afraid of Chris Johnson that much?

Panthers (+13) over SAINTS
Why do I feel like this is a good matchup for Carolina? And when will Jake Delhomme stop roping me in? This decade, has anyone either (a) murdered more suicide pools and three-team teasers than Jake, or (b) made more people feel dumb more times for picking him? He should wear the number 666.

SEAHAWKS (-10) over Lions
Look, I can't believe I'm laying this many points, either. Can you really take a team that's 2-29 in its last 31 games at Qwest Field? I say no.

Chargers (+4.5) over GIANTS
Phil Rivers, would you like some ketchup or A1 sauce with the Giants' secondary? And how would you like them cooked? Is medium rare good? I'm making this my Underdog Lock of the Week. Chargers 38, Giants 30. By the way, I watched the G-men self-destruct against Philly with my dad last Sunday. At one point he said sadly, "Why didn't we get this Eli for the [Giants-Pats] Super Bowl?" He's still not over it. And neither am I.

EAGLES (-3) over Cowboys
Tony Romo hasn't had one of those goofy, surreal, gambler-assassinating, "What the hell is he doing?" Tony Romo games in a while. He's overdue.

BRONCOS (+3) over Steelers
I am not buying the whole "Baltimore proved how to stop Denver's offense" thing. At all. Guarantee Josh McDaniels studied what the Ravens did for 75 hours this week and made all the necessary adjustments. Beware of the altitude; beware of Elvis and Knowshon; and most of all, beware of the Neck Beard.

Last week: 4-9
Season: 68-47-1
Underdog locks: 5-5

NFL Week 9 - Early Lines & Predictions

Go figure. Last week I start a new feature for the Cover the Spread Blog by adding my picks ATS for everyone to see and proceed to have my worst week of the season. 6-7 ATS is not completely disasterous, but if you are betting on the losing games, it can be. Like a prize fighter after losing an early round, I'm back and ready to go!

Here is The Vegas Whale's early picks for NFL Week 9 (home teams are in CAPS):

JAGUARS (-6.5) over Chiefs
Tough game - two really bad teams here. Won't be betting the spread on this one but may be tempted by the UNDER. Watch the weather report before laying down any cheese on that selection. Taking the under was the only lesson I got reminded of this past week when seeing two bad teams play each other like the Rams vs Lions. (See also Chiefs vs Raiders or Rams vs Redskins from Week #2 as further proof of this theory on the Under!)

Ravens (+3.0) over BENGALS
Ravens will be looking for some revenge after losing to the Bengals earlier this season. Cincinnati is coming off a BYE, but not convinced they are legit.

COLTS (-9.0) over Texans
The Texans lost stud TE Owen Daniels for the season to an ACL injury against the Bills. Be surprised if they can come up with two straight road wins - thought the opening line would be higher on this one, so this is looking like a strong play this week.

ATLANTA (-11.5) over Washington
Washington is a bad team that has lost their best O-lineman for the season. Portis looks slow and old and Atlanta is pretty dominate at home the past two years. Figured out who I like in this one yet?

Green Bay (-10.5) over BUCCANEERS
Tampa Bay might not win a game this year. Best chance will be Week 13 against the Panthers. At least with the Rams and Titans getting their first wins this means better chance at 1st overall pick in draft for them. Tim Tebow stays in Florida perhaps?

Cardinals (+3.0) over BEARS
The Cardinals looked really bad this past week against a below average Panthers team. Six turnovers will do that to you AND YET they still had a chance to make it close in the 4th quarter until turnover #6 happened. The Cards seem to be better on the road this year and the Bears have failed to impress against anyone good this year - an unmotivated Steelers team comes the closest. Not a strong play, but hard to take the Bears until they start beating above average teams like this on a consistent basis.

PATRIOTS (-11.0) over Dolphins
Dolphins got a lot of points last week off special teams - their offense was pretty bad and managed to do just enough not to lose the game against the Jets. (Way to go combine player of the year Ted Ginn Jr. You saved your starting job, but you still suck as a wide-receiver.) Patriots will be at home off a Bye, gotta like this pick.

SAINTS (-14.0) over Panthers
Panthers beat a team by getting six turnovers last week, that is not happening against the Saints. This should be a beat down. Keep riding the Saints as long as you can.

SEAHAWKS (-10.0) over Lions
Dangerous game. The Seahawks are so decimated by injuries, but play well at home against teams that have to fly across the country to play them. The Lions are pretty bad, as witnessed by their loss to the Rams last week. IF Megatron is back healthy I might reconsider this pick, otherwise the Hawks should roll.

49ERS (-5.0) over Titans
The 49ers are better with Gore in the lineup. The Titans will be happy to have won a game and will be more relaxed on the flight to Candlestick, but I'm not buying that they are decent team. They beat a bad Jaguars team and 49ers will be hungry to keep pace with the Cardinals in their division.

GIANTS (-3.5) over Chargers
The Chargers can put up points, but their once strong defense isn't what it used to be. Tough to put any money on this game though as the Giants haven't beaten any quality teams yet. (Not sure if the Chargers qualify as a quality team though.)

EAGLES (-3.5) over Cowboys
The Eagles are becoming a shizzo team this year. Lose to the Raiders a few weeks ago and then blow out the Giants is proof of that. Think the Eagles will be up for the NBC Sunday night game. Romo is due to throw some picks with the spotlight on him.

BRONCOS (+3.0) over Steelers
Good game. The Broncos may be coming back down to earth after a great start to the season, but will try riding them for one more time and see if I get bucked.

Let's hear what you got to say.

The Vegas Whale record ATS since Week #8: 6-7

Week 8 - Afternoon Recap

OAK 16 @ SD 24: As of now, JaFarcus Russell still remains the Worst Player in NFL History, but he does have a cannon of an arm, so he also over-takes Ted Ginn as the "Combine Player of the Year". Ted did some good today to warrant being an actual NFL player for one week. No matter how good or bad Russell is, please be aware that the OAKLAND RAIDERS are 4-4 this season against the spread!!!! Thought has to be be done in picking the remaining Raider games for the season. Also, the Chargers are tied with KC in the AFC West ATS Standings at 2-5.

JAX 13 @ TEN 30: We had this all wrong. Putting Vince Young was the right move to do for the 0-6 Titans. I mean they were 0-6!!!! So Vinny had nothing to lose. He didn't lose anything as Titans RB Chris Johnson outran JAX's MoJo Drew to take the game. Now, Vince has a whole week of media hype where he will face the pressure. Will Young answer the pressure or wilt like he has in the past? They're at a disappointing seemingly disappointing San Fran next week....or are they?

CAR 34 @ ARI 21: This caught everybody by surprise!!!! This surprise was due to Carolina Head Coach, John Fox instituting the best game plan of the year by taking the ball out of Jake Delhomme's hands. He went 7 for 14, he didn't have a chance to throw his regular 2-3 interceptions. That, plus the Panthers ran in down Arizona's throat and who knew Warner would throw 5, count 'em 5 INT's!!!!! Anyone who was crazy enough to lay a bet via moneyline won a a sweet +380.

MIN 38 @ GB 26: Before we dispense with the obvious Favra story arc, what was MIN head coach, Brad Childress wearing as a head set? an nfl coaching head set or was he singing back-up for Backstreet Sync!?!?!?!? Bottom line, everybody should be glad that this is all done. Listen, nobody wins and now both teams can go their separate ways. The Vikes are made for now and the Packers are made for not this year. They're close but not there yet.

Favre back at Lambeau: Closure for Cheeseheads

Hey I get it. Favra comes back to Lambeau today and 91% of Fox affiliates are airing this game. It's a huge huge game. I mean I framed Brett's SI Sportsman of the Year cover in his last year with the Pack Attack. Brett was my guy, and the Pack were my team. But now all it is, is that it's not the same.

He jogs onto the field with boos galore. NFL Countdown had a story where all former Packers just roasted him as some sort of traitor for coming back to Lambeau in a Vikings uniform. Holy, I love ESPN Countdown, but talk about a story reeking of hyperbole!!!!

But, I don't hate Brett for leaving. I mean, he could've handled his retirement/non-retirement roller coaster better. But the bottom line is that the Pack were one OT period vs. the NY Giants from going to the Super Bowl in his last year in GB. Does anyone in their right mind think Brett wanted to: A) Retire or B) Leave Green Bay after that amazing season?!?!?!? No and No. The Packer's brass said they didn't want him.

So he goes to the Jets and now the Vikings. Again, the Packers GM did not want him, and we all know how competitive Brett is and how much he loves playing football. So Packer fan, don't hate on Brett for coming back.

This is a bid-ness and the emotional bond of one icon with one team ended 21 years ago with Wayne going to the LA Kings!!!!!

So here comes todays game. And Packer fan, get it out.....boo your face off. That's alright. This is healthy closure to let those emotions out and to just get it over with. Because we all know the second that Favra retires and hands in his retirement papers into the League to STAY retired, Brett will return as a life-long Packer.

Week 8 - Morning Recap

Ouch, whatta beating for the easycovers staff!!!! The money laid down panned out and the games with no money laid down panned out with those teams who we thought would win. Well sorry to say fellas, Should-a's don't pay out!!!!!

DEN 7 @ BAL 30: Well the Tenacious D of the Junk-in-da-Bronc stayed in Denver and the Ravens didn't have their high powered passing offense. This was the George Costanza Opposite-Game-of-the-Week. Quoth the Ravens had ball control the whole game getting a solid 135 yards rushing along with a Special Teams touch down to boot. Wacko for Flacco had an efficient 175 yards passing and 109 passer rating. The Junk-in-da-Bronc were all trash today, and not the 6-0 junk they had to start the season, the sort of junk that could make a Sir Mixalot proud. Back to the drawing board with the Broncos, cuz their ATS/SU wave has come in.

CHI 30 @ CLE 6: Cleveland had another great day from their QB's with a 7/20 performance for 74 yards. Derek Anderson had a 10 passer rating. Drew Brees gets a 20 passer rating from just blinking!!!! Matt Forte finally woke up for da Bears with 2 TD's and the Bears Special Teams are still dangerous.

HOU 31 @ BUF 10: Yep, the HOU offense just finds a way. They score 31 points off of no TD's thrown by Shaub, Slaton benched with his fumble and Andre Johnson coughing up more blood for only 63 yards receiving. No-name Moats rushed for 126 yards for the Texans. No-name B-Lo QB Fitzpatrick did nothing for the Bills. Go balance a check book Harvard boy!!!! Great pick J-Dawg!!

SF 14 @ IND 18: Indy had way too many field goals. They should've covered if they could cash in some touch downs!!! But in looking at the silver lining, this may have tilted Vegas away from setting outragious spreads for one more week.

MIA 30 @ NYJ 25: This would've paid out well by taking the Fish +155, but it's a divisional rival game and anything can happen, and anything did happen. Ted Ginn decided to use his only Combine attribute and score 2 kick-off returns to the house. Who woulda thought!?!?!?

STL 17 @ DET 10: The Shams avoided relegation into the new United League with their first win of the year.

SEA 17 @ DAL 38: Dallas is getting into fine form in their new home. And Bill Simmons couldn't have put it better with the fact that Seattle has passed the point of no return with injuries.

NYG 17 @ PHI 40: Eli is hurting more than any of us know. Desean Jackson is for real.

Final Morning Tally:

STRAIGHT UP:

Favorites: 6-2

Underdogs:2-6

Home: 5-3

Away: 3-5

AGAINST THE SPREAD:

Favorites: 5-3

Underdogs: 3-5

Home: 4-4

Away: 4-4

Laying Down Your Cheese - NFL Week 8

Taking the wise advice from this week's Insanity Report, trusting your gut, here is The Vegas Whale's picks for NFL week 8 (home team in CAPS):

Broncos (+3.5) over RAVENS (Loss)
Texans (-3.5) over BILLS (Win)
BEARS (-13.5) over Browns (Win)
Dolphins (+3) over JETS (Win)
COLTS (-13.5) over Niners (Loss)
COWBOYS (-9.5) over Seahawks (Win)
LIONS (-4.0) over Rams (Loss)
EAGLES (+1) over Giants (Win)
CHARGERS (-16.5) over Raiders (Loss)
Jags (+3) over TITANS (Lose)
Vikings (+3) over PACKERS (Win)
CARDINALS (-10) over Panthers (Loss)
SAINTS (-11) over Falcons (Loss)

Of these games your best bets to lay your cheese on would be: COLTS (-13.5), Jags (+3), COWBOYS (-9.5), CARDINALS (-10), Broncos (+3.5), & SAINTS (-11). Keep riding the last two picks until they fail to cover this season. Both are 6-0 ATS.

The Cover The Spread staff feel confident to take the UNDER 44 points in the Eagles vs Giants game. Both offenses are struggling, feeling a game in the 'teens' is more likely to happen here.

This week our 7 game jackpot parlay ($5 to win $1000): DEN +180, HOU -3.5, IND -14, MIA +165, DET -4, DAL -10, & UNDER 44 for NYG vs EAG. We'll see if we're loaded with cheese by 1:00pm PST!

GOOD LUCK!

******************************

Record for NFL Week 8: 6-7
1:00pm - Apologies on the Giants vs Eagles UNDER. Didn't expect the Giants Defense to be as bad as they were. Denver's ride ATS is over, tough morning for the Cover The Spread staff, but expect a rebound this afternoon.

Bonus Afternoon 4 Game Teaser : SD -11, JAX +9, MIN +9, ARI -4.
(Yikes - we were 1 for 4 on that one... seems like the theme for this weekend.)

INSANITY REPORT - WEEK 8 #2 - Early picks....what do you think?

Alright, if anybody has read Bill Simmons' Week 8 picks, you can rest assured that the Easycovers Staff and Bill are on the same wavelength. Just like the "simbotics" of Bill in his column, Rule #1 of the Insanity Report is "stick with your gut"!!!! Well Rule #1 was that the Home team is the almighty tie-breaker, but in actuality for the past 4-5 years, I've been kicking myself with the ultimate Monday-Morning-Quarterback Hindsight of 1800-20.....and that is: TRUST THE INSANITY REPORT!!! That is, I'd get some takes in early with an Insaniy Report, and then over analyze the games and make some changes here and there. That sort of paralysis through analysis is as useless as breaking down a Marisa Miller-Kate Beckinsale match-up!!!! As the EA Sports guy says.....lets file that under: non-issue!!!!

Anyways, the point being is just like Bill's "simbotics": TRUST YOUR GUT. I should've trusted the original Insanity Reports and all would be good in the universe. Well all is good in the Universe....the UNC Tar Heels are defending College Hoops champs. Shit, stay off the tangents Adolph!!!

This weeks pick look as such:

(These aren't official until final consultation with the Easycovers Staff Sunday morning before kick-off, but here goes.....)

DEN +160 @ BAL: With this, I'm sticking to my gut. I've made some good money on Denver all season, and each time I've placed a bet for the Junk-in-da-Bronc, I've been scared constipation-ful AND the Broncs have pulled through. That is exactly what's going on this week: I have a hunch on da Bronc, betting them scares the be-Shuttlesworth outta me and they better pull through!!!!

JAX +145 @ TENN: Will Vince Young EVER be ready to start an NFL game? That's the question. One answer is: Not this week. He's never showed any signs of wanting to dig the Titans out of their hole during their oh-fer run, and by forcing him to start is doing no one any favors. This should make the GM of the Houston Texans look even more the genius by picking Mario Williams over Vince.

DAL-9.5 vs. SEA: Seattle made a call to Brian Bozworth and Cortez Kennedy this week to see if they were available. They are going too deep into their no-so-deep depth chart with these injuries. Plus, the new Jerry Jones Mausoleum is indeed a dangerous place to play for visiting teams. Also also, Tony Romo's new found relationship with Miles Austin has started the "Romo-stin Watch" in this past issue of US Weekly!!!! Enjoy the honeymoon bettors, and ride the 'Boys -9.5. Plus some spreads have the Cowboys at -10, so get your picks in early before the spread keeps rising like Jennifer's waistline. Uhhhh, too soooooon!!!!!

IND -13 vs. SF: The new found hook-up between Alex Smith and Vernon Davis last week vs. HOU won't happen this week vs. the Colts. Peyton's not gonna let this happen. Cue the 20 point spreads in 1-2 weeks for the Colts.

ARI -10 vs. CAR: It's nice to ride the Warner-Fitz-Anquan wave, but even better to ride their under-rated Defense. Cue up 2 pick sixes for the Cards secondary from Daylight-Come-and-Me-Wanna-Del-INT!!!!!

NO -11 vs. ATL: Nawlins took apart the NY Football Giants 2 weeks ago at home. What makes any of us think that the Yippe-ki-yay-Mr-Falcons are in the same stratosphere as the G-Men!!!! Plus like we should've done last week, and like it was written (so let it be so), keep riding the Saints-Covering-Every-Week Wave!!!! (NOTE: "Yippeee-ki-yay-Mr-Falcon" was a sorry attempt to cover the MF-er part in this classic line on the TV version of Die Hard 2, which made this even more of a classic)

SIDE NOTE: Does anyone find it extremely weird that Tim Tebow broke the SEC career rushing TD record today????? He's a QB and he broke Hershal Walker's record. Herschel Walker!!!! He was a pretty decent RB in a long list of killer SEC running backs and Tim friggin Tebow broke his record. I'm so rattled I have no idea how to spell Hershall!!!!!

INSANITY REPORT - WEEK 8 #1

Well, at first glance, the easycovers Staff was thinking that there are some tough games this week. That remains the case, but there are upset picks to be had this weekend, there has to be, look at some of these odds.........

DEN @ BAL: The Junk-in-the-Bronc are on fuego, and still 3 pt dogs at Baltimore. No shock though, as the Ravens are a good team. They have a high power offense and a statistically disappointing defense. Overall. they're D is disappointing, but their horses in Lewis and Reed can still dictate a game. The Broncos have a a steady O and a tenacious D. The easycovers gut says that the Tenacious D usually dictates the game more than the High Powered O. And at +160, betting the Broncos is never a bad bet.

CLE @ CHI: Da Bears are a disappointment, but they did cover against a shitty Lions team earlier this year. Chicago is indeed disappointing, but they're no Pittsburgh Steelers; they should cover at home against the Div II teams.

HOU @ BUF: B-lo's QB is a former Harvard "star". Wow, now that's a new lo for B-lo. HOU's offense is too dangerous over the Bills.

MIN @ GB: Staying away from this game due to pure emotion. But the easycovers gut feels that both teams are too good for any one team to sweep both games this season, so GB should take the game. The ghost of Vince Lombardi at the Frozen Tundra won't let Favra come back to win at his former home.

SF @ IND: I agree with Paulsen, in that inserting a 2nd chance QB in Alex Smith won't infuse enough mojo for the Niners, and especially not against Peyton at home in the new Hoosier Dome. The spread at 13 pts for Indy is not high enough, and once the Colts cover again this week, then Vegas should bite the bullet and insert a 20 point spread.

MIA @ NYJ: A Divisional Grudge match. Take the home team.

STL @ DET: Insert all jokes. They've all been said. But STL has nothing and I mean nothing going for them. One or both of Stafford and Johnson may return for the Lions. At least they have some young talent to build upon. If there was no Stafford or Johnson on the Lions roster, then this would be a Div III match up.

SEA @ DAL: We all know about the Seahawks' injury woes, especially with losing Lofa Tatupu for the season now. Regardless of the Seahawks' situation, the bottom line is that the Cowboys are establishing a comfort at home, and the new Cowboy Mausoleum is indeed a Cowboy haven for wins. Take the 'Boys. Plus, this is a game that the Cowboys should win, so Romo should not choke. Last week was a revelation with that performance vs. the ATL, but he still has a jekyl-n-hyde quality about him, but the Jekyl should be out this week.

OAK @ SD: A Div II team on the road. Take the Chargers of course. The NFL should look into some sort of relegation this year. The Rams, Raiders, Browns, Cheifs and Lions should be on some sort of 2 year probation after this season.

JAX @ TEN: So we have Vince Young who came into the league with all the hype in the world. He has tapped out every drop of that hype due to his case of 3rd Degree Mental Midgetry!!! So now you have the Titans forcing the return of Vince Young in the starting spot? Where he has done nothing to show that he is ready to take a snap without leaving his straight jacket!?!?!? Take the Jag's.......Jones-Drew will have a hay-day on the Titans anyways.

CAR @ ARI: Another case of a bum team on the road. And Arizona is no one shot deal. They are the real deal from their Super Bowl run of a year ago. Watching their games this year, they have the fire power in Warner, Fitx and Anquan (not Antwoin), but their Defense is this week's Sneaky Good Team of the week. They have the D-line to take over the ever important battle in the trenches, and they will surprise some teams again this year. But wallaping the Panthers this week will be no surprise.

NYG @ PHI: Another Divisional Grudge Match. Take the Giants. Wesbrook is hurting for the Eag's, and Eli has a great stable of receivers.

ATL @ NO: There is no breaking anything down on this match up. The Saints proved last week that they are on a roll. Ride this wave of covering games no matter the match up or the spread. Plus playing on Monday night and at home. Saints all the way.

That it. What are your thoughts.

Adolph out.

Gambling 101 - Money Management

Unless you are lucky enough to stumble upon a sports almanac like Biff does in Back to Future II, there are some basic principles which every wise gambler should follow for long term success. You can do an excellent job spending hours analyzing games, keeping up to date on injury news and betting trends, but all that work will be for not if you don't follow solid money management practices at the time you make your bet.

It is rare for someone with poor money management to consistently beat Vegas. This can be illustrated with a simple example involving some NFL bets on the spread from Week 7.

Imagine you and your buddy each have $500 to bet the spreads for five games. You both agree on the games you like - feeling the Bears will be an easy cover. Your friend makes the following bets:

Game #1 - Bet $77 to win $70 : Packers (-9) over the BROWNS (Win $70)

Game #2 - Bet $99 to win $90 : Colts (-15) over the RAMS (Win $90)

Game #3 - Bet $247 to win $224: Bears (-1) over the BENGALS (LOSE $247)

Game #4 - Bet $44 to win $40: Saints (-6) over the DOLPHINS (Win $40)

Game #5 - Bet $33 to win $30: Eagles (-7) over the REDSKINS (Win $30)

Your friend was an impressive 4 for 5 (80%) with his picks, but unfortunately his one bad pick was the Bears (Game #3). So instead of running to the bank to collect his winnings, he actually loses $17.00!

You are a little wiser than your friend and bet an equal amount on each game. And unlike your friend you decide to take the Dolphins last minute instead of the Saints as you become convinced that they have a strong chance to upset.

Betting $100.00 to win $90.91 on each game you go 3 for 5 or (60%) for the week, which is still pretty respectable. You WIN 3 x $90.91 - 2 x $100 = $72.73! Almost $90 better than your buddy who did a better job picking the games than you did!

This example is a bit extreme, but it does show the importance of keeping your betting unit consistent when you are gambling. An interesting note: If you had kept the same picks as your buddy in this example, that would add up to a tidy $260+ profit and very solid week of gambling. (Perhaps you might buy your buddy a few drinks to help console him with all your winnings! )

So remember, keeping your betting unit consistent is basic gambling strategy which should be followed when trying to take on Vegas. Whatever betting unit you decide on using (be it $10, $100, or $1000) make sure to stick with it for all bets. If you develop some handicapping skills you will have a much better chance to pull down profits over time by following this basic gambling principle.

Until next time....

thevegaswhale is out!

Afternoon Games Recap

So, the favourites for all of Sunday's games were 9-3 straight up and 9-2-1 against the spread (ATS). It was a tough day vig wise as no upset picks panned out.

CHI @ CIN: The understated grudge match for CIN RB, Cedric Benson panned out as a slap in da Bears face. Well the slap happened around the 3rd quarter when the Bears decided to show up. By that time, Cedric had 5 miles of rushing and the Bengals were up by 30. The Easycovers Staff were shooting themselves for betting this game as the original Insanity Report stated that this game should not be bet. Bah!!!!!

NYJ @ OAK: Didn't watch this game much but the Over-Paiders made their first good move of the season by FINALLY benching Crapmarcus Russell in the 3rd. He remains the worst player in NFL history.

BUF @ CAR: Stayed away from this game with a 10 foot pole. Apparently BUF won 20-9 with a no-name quarterback and Delhomme had 3 INT's. Man he blows. The only thing about this game is that only Gus Johnson can make a BUF/CAR game sound interesting. Without Gus on the mic, this game is as interesting as the Sunday Night Football Pre-game Show on NBC. Bring back NFL Primetime on ESPN!!!!!! And why does Gus get assigned to Bengals and BUF/CAR games!?!?!?!?!? When will CBS get their heads outta their a$$es and assign Gus as their lead announcer!!!! I mean Jim Nance??? Without Gus on the mic, the BUF/CAR game is as interesting as a Jim Nance called game!!!

NO @ MIA: 2 things happened here. First of all, an entertaining game. But happening #1 was that with a 24-3 lead, Miami flat out ran out of steam in the 2nd half. There was one play when the MIA receiver tried to run out of bounds and his knees buckled and he chucked the ball out of bounds trying to stop the clock. The penalty on this play was an "illegal forward pass", which was made because there is no "illegal chucking of the ball" penalty which it should have been called. Come on Stripes!!!!

Miami's Ted Ginn is the "Combine Player of the Year". This guy has great testing scores in the Combine which is evident in his lightning speed, but he has no football ability. He can't catch, he's not tough, that is, he hears footsteps and is not willing to take a bump to catch the ball. The guy has great physical skills but no "football talent". Beat it Ginn!!!

Oh and the 2nd thing that happened: Brees blew up MIA's D and did what ever he wanted in the 2nd half. This guys is a stud. Sorry Peyton, we have our MVP in Brees this year!!!!

ATL @ DAL: 2 things happened here: #1 is that Matt Ryan didn't have a Matt Ryan game. He was outta sync and had no rhythm. #2 is that Romo didn't go Romo and choke away a couple overthrown balls and costly INT's. Weird man!!! He's found a new receiver in Austin and they have more chemistry than he had with Jessica. Zing!!! Had to go there.

ARI @ NYG: Didn't see the game. Had to dominate my Div II Kerrisdale Co-ed Basketball League game. Adolph's line: 12 pts, 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 16 turnovers. A great improvement on the TO factor and his rebounding is as soft as Ginn running through the middle!!!!

That's it, great games. MIA/NO was the game of the day. A play here and there in the MIA/NO and/or the MIN/PIT game coulda gone MIA and NO's way. But shit.....any given sunday right!!!!

Adolph out.

Morning Games recap

Well, good games.........bad picks


SD @ KC: Shoulda listened to Paulsen on this one. He said, KC may be a not-bad team, but they have no offense and SD did put up 20 on Denver last week. This was such a bad pick, cuz KC is KC and how could they win 2 straight games!?!?!?!?!? Idiot!!!!

IND @ STL: Game was over by warm-up. Didn't watch much of it due to the fact it was STL.

GB @ CLEV: Talk about the bust out game for GB we were waiting for. I feel sorry for Cleveland fan having such a brutal team. They are so bad that the "Dawg Pound" in Cleveland is irrelevant. Somewhere, Arsenio Hall is spinning in his celebrity z-list grave.

MIN @ PIT: This was a break even in terms of shock/no-shock. THE SHOCK: Pitt covered for the first time this decade. NO SHOCK: Farve comes back down to earth. In Minn's defense, you gotta give credit to Troy Polamalu. I mean, he's the Deion Sanders of safety's. Favra passed only towards the sidelines and stayed away from Polamalu. That limited Minn the whole game, but Minn, you do know you have Adrian Peterson in the back field right???? Use the guy.

NE @ TB: This game was another fantasy league bust-out game for all owners that have Pats players. The game was as boring as 80% of the personalities of all the english fans in the stands.

SF @ HOU: The Texans squeaked out another win. Talk about a tale of 2 halves once again for HOU. SF is not as sexy of a pick anymore. And we still stay away from HOU in terms of point spreads. This week they pushed at -3.

That's it for the morning games, and early comments for the afternoon games: CHI didn't make the trip to CIN. NO SHOW on da Bears part!!!!!!!

NFL Week 7 - Laying Down Your Cheese

After a few emails going back and forth between the Cover The Spread correspondents, we like the following 6-pt Teaser for NFL Week 7:

IND -7 @ STL
GB -1 @ CLEV
NE -9 @ TB
NYJ +1 @ OAK
CHI +5 @ CIN
ATL +10 @ DAL
PHI -1 @ WASH
(7 Games with 10 to 1 odds)

Decided to add the Bears here. CHI didn't look bad against ATL on Sunday night and lost in the last minute while driving to tie the game. CIN hasn't blown anyone out in their wins and their defense was dealt a major blow this week with stud DT Antwan Odom now out for the season with an achilles injury.

Reluctant to add the Giants -1 in the teaser as their wins have been against some of the league bottom feeders - need to prove themselves a bit more before the cheese gets laid on them. That being said, the Cardinals don't have a strong track record of doing well in games when the have to travel across the country. Giants Defense should give Warner a hard time and Boldin may be not be 100% which is just another factor to consider.

Friday Roundup - Bill Simmons Picks for NFL Week 7

NFL: TWEETING WEEK 7

CHIEFS (+4.5) over Chargers
My buddy Gus (a DEN fan) e-mailed me during Monday's SD-DEN game: "Know what I just realized? I am no longer afraid of LaDainian Tomlinson."

TEXANS (-3) over Niners
Houston can throw on them. BTW, M. Crabtree is on pace to shatter the "most times picked up or waived" fantasy record. A 2001 Bonds HR pace.

Patriots (-14.5) over Bucs
TB/TEN secondaries back to back turn Brady into a fantasy stud again. Wouldn't it be fun if London's fans booed the "Patriots" like crazy?

Colts (-13) over RAMS
Definitely NFL's version of 1 vs. 16 March Madness matchup. Does anyone else think Austin Collie sounds like the coolest dog breed ever?

Vikings (+4) over STEELERS
Noah in Seattle: "Can we start a petition stopping announcers from saying Favre is having fun out there?" But he's having fun out there!

Packers (-7) over BROWNS
Nate from Cleveland proposes a new weekly wager: Josh Cribbs vs. Cleveland's offense. I have Cribbs laying 3.5 points this week.

PANTHERS (-7) over Bills
Yes to wagering against Fitzpatrick on the road + a Bills D that gave up 300+ yards rushing last week. No to throwing Delhomme in a tease.

Jets (-6) over RAIDERS
Emotional game for NYJ after the Sanchize Bandwagon's grisly crash injured 650k Jets fans last week. Hey JaMarcus, can I offer you a blitz?

Bears (+1.5) over BENGALS
Antwan Odom: crushing loss for Cincy. Great matchup for Bears' offense. Easy road win unless Lovie Smith blows it (and don't rule that out).

Falcons (+4) over COWBOYS
I don't trust Dallas even a little. Also, Texas reader P. Folta sent me a fake e-mail from Romo: "Do you think Kate Hudson has any sisters?"

DOLPHINS (+6.5) over Saints
The Underdog Lock of the Week. What better way to screw up a juggernaut's momentum than by throwing 470 goofy Wildcat formations at it?

Cardinals (+7) over GIANTS
Didn't last week prove you can throw on the Giants? And don't you worry about Eli's fluttering passes on a windy/cold Sunday night?

Eagles (-7) over REDSKINS
If you live in DC: Come to ESPN Zone to watch the Skins get slaughtered with me before my midnight book signing! We can boo them together.

Last Week: 9-5
Underdog Locks: 4-3
Season: 58-32

Thursday Review - The NBA is borderline UNWATCHABLE

After spending 20 of my hard earned dollars to watch a preseason game between the Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns last night, I have come to the obvious conclusion that the NBA is borderline unwatchable. The quality of game is so poor, give me college hoops any day instead.

The only reasons that I didn't completely waste my money here was Steve Nash is a solid dude (nice to see him playing in hometown) and more importantly the Phonenix Suns Dance Team made the trip up from Arizona!

By the way, I think that cheerleaders is something that NHL teams up here in Canada should seriously be looking at adding to enhance the in game experience. Canucks Mascot 'Fin' would seem to very much agree as he spent a large part of the night macking on the Phoenix girls at the game - can't say I blame him by the way!

Wednesday Review: Canucks Win, Big Hit by Mitchell!

Lots of talk about Willie Mitchell's massive hit on Jonathan Toews in Wednesday nights game versus the Blackhawks. Early candidate for hit of the year. This clean open ice smack down was definitely the TSN turning point in the Canucks comeback win. (See the hit by clicking on the picture to the right -->)

A good rivalry developing between the two clubs. These two teams next play each other on Sunday November 22nd, might want to circle that one on the old calendar.

The Canucks should be back to .500 on the season after a home game against my winless Leafs this Saturday. Seems like a no brainer if planning on throwing a few bucks down on the game.

NFL INSANITY REPORT Week 7 - #3‏

NOTE: This is Adolph's Insanity Report received via email

Ok, so, first off, D$, I love the easycovers blogspot.com site. It's a friggin keeper. I don't know how to say this, but I'm blog illiterate, and couldn't figure out how to post........Its probably staring me in the face, but for now I gotta get these picks off my chest. I'll add to the blog when I get my head outta my blog-tail. But for now, here's the last Insanity Email beore we go Blog.

Blog, it's better than bad, it's BLOG!!!!

So, there's 6 more games to go over for the team bets, but here's an update on the first games once again:

SD @ KC: Sticking to my guns. KC/SD is a divisional game and KC is at home. That is rule #1 from the first NFL Insanity Report: When in doubt, go with the home team. Lookin back at history, the past few years, SD has killed KC even in KC. But that was back when the Chiefs blew and LaDanian was LT (plus he had the facemask that had so many bars on it, it gave 6 out of every 10 people a seizure). But LaDanian Tomlinson is not LT anymore, he's just LaDanian, there's a difference. Things have changed this year. KC is not a contender by no means, but they're better then people think and SD is worse then people think. This doesn't have to be on the team Teaser Bet, but book Adolph betting money line on the Chiefs +180.

IND @ STL: Peyton with a 40th straight 300 yd game. Staying with the Colts to fold the Shams.

CHI @ CIN: Staying away from this game. Well, lets take a look: CIN is 1-2 at home. They lost to DEN in Week 1 when Gus lost his larynx. Then came back to beat PITT in Week 3 and then laid an egg last week to HOU. Da Bears by the way, on the road this year are 1-2 as well. They lost a tight game until the last 2-3 min in the Frozen Tundra of GB in Week 1, then beat the CFL version of the Seahawks in Week 3, and were in tight at ATL last week. I'd say CHI in this one, but the kicker is, CHI has a chance to come out at 1-1 in their 2 game swing on the road and the Bengals have a chance to salvage a .500 record at home in their 2 game home stand. 2 desperate teams. My gut says Da Bears, but my cold feet say stay away from putting money down on this game. Unless..........

GB @ CLEV: This was booked when Bill Simmons said the same thing on his podcast, in that GB is due to bust out from under their radar, and he also added that CLEV is due to have a Cleveland performance and come down to the status of the crappy teams with the other TB/OAK/STL/DET's of the world. GB covers. Book it.

MINN @ PITT: I wrote in my last email that it was this time last year that Favra came back down to earth, but the ol' gut says not yet this week. Maybe not at all. I may be inclined to stay with Paulsen's brother, Ryan "Turpentine" Paulsen's prediction of the Vikes as this years Super Bowl Champs. But that's been his prediction every year since we were playing Tecmo Bowl on the ol' school Nintendo game systems. My thumbs still have scars from those controllers!!!! But take the Turpentine Karma with J-Dawg's decree that Ben Rothlessthanaburger is the "Worst 2-time Super Bowl Winner" of all time and the fact that Pitt is riding a RB that has come outta no where. Favra's hot and AP is a RB that has come out of everyone's Fantasy League as the Top Pick........not a waiver wire pick-up like Rashard "Jake" Mendenhall. Oh and that Money Line pick is a juicy +170 for the Vikes. Me likey.

NE @ TB: stays the same. TB is a hapless team with no talent. Note, Billy Greene, our 2nd year UBC QB has Brady, Moss and Welker in his Fantasy League, and got 103 points alone from those 3 guys last week vs. 43 total points from the team he was matched up with!!! Whoa!!

SF @ HOU: Gonna stick with my gut on this this. SF has Frank "You're Mother's A" Gore coming back from injury against a HOU defense that can't defend the run. HOU has Andre "The Skinny Giant" Johnson against a SF D that can't defend the pass. Johnson is more of a game changer than Gore. Michael Crabtree may start for the Niners this week, and so once again, who do you take in that match-up? Johnson or Craptree? Plus HOU can stick in Steve Slaton who can get yards and keep a defense honest even though the Texans are close to the bottom of the league in Run Offense. San Fran shit the bed at home 2 weeks ago to the ATL, so even a bye-week won't help the Niners.

NYJ @ OAK: I agree with Bill Simmons, in that Mark "Dirty" Sanchez's 5 INT's last week made the spread 6 points from Vegas oddsmakers, rather than the usual 10 points vs. Oakland. But the kicker here, is that Oakland's JaFarcus Russell is still the worst football player in NFL history. He's even worse than "Batman" on Paulsen's and Adolph's bantam community football team back in Grade 10, and he was bad!!! Sanchez won't shit the bed like Donavan did last week, and NYJ's defense will have 1 maybe 2 Pick-Sixes off of Russell's ducks, to add insurance to any Sanchez miscues.

BUF @ CAR: The spreads aren't out yet as everyone waits for the report on BUF QB Trent Edwards' concussion. This game stinks, and with both teams stinking, I say just take the underdog in the teaser, as in whoever the winner is, either it'll be the underdog or the favorite but the fav won't win minus the spread and 6 pt's. NOTE: Carolina's Steve Smith said in the media this week that he's not "an asset" to Carolina anymore. And that doesn't bode well when you gotta differentiate Steve Smith who just 2-3 years ago was the best WR in football as "Carolina's Steve Smith" from the NYG's Steve Smith. With Steve Smith's gripe vs. T.O's weekly crap, this game is henceforth, THE SOUR GRAPES BOWL!!! Take the eventual underdog plus 6 points in the Teaser Bet.

NO @ MIA: It's a hunch, but I go with JDawg. Take the Fish at home. The Dolphin's Wildcat will be used to keep ball possession and Drew Brees on the bench. At +245 for the Fish, this is a juicy bet. Bill Simmon's had this take on his podcast and it sold me.

ATL @ DALL: Again, I stick to my guns here too. On sports.com, 99% of the moneyline bets are for the Falcons as well as 87% for the ATL on the spread. The Cowboys are the Bose Headphones, Ex-BOSE-ed Team of the Week. Romo will be on his choking-great passes rollercoaster and Matt Ryan will disect the heavily over-rated Cowboys D. The ATL is in at +170.

ARI @ NYG: People, and by people, that means Bill Simmon's podcast, think that the Giants secondary are all of a sudden bad because they got shellacked by the Saints last week. Well, that's not on the Football Giants' secondary being horrible, it's just that Naw'lins is that good. I know Arizona has a similar air attack in Fitz and Kurt, but not so much with the NYG at home. I'll take the NYG to cover. What do you guys think?

PHI @ WASH: Just like PHI gave OAK a win last week, WASH will give PHI an easy win this week with the whole play-calling fiasco in the Redskins' camp. Every player as well as Head Coach, Jim Zorn is saying their rattled by giving the play calling duties to Perfect Stranger, Balky Bartalkamous. It's no question that it'd rattle a head coach and team behind closed doors, but to blast one's rattled-ness in the media? This is too much of a circus for WASH to come out with a win.

So bets wise, I'm thinking of taking 4 seperate moneyline bets of KC +180, MINN +170, MIA +245, and ATL +170. It's not a lock for a parlay bet obviously, but cashing out on an upset pick has helped me these past 3 weeks with the DET winover WASH, DEN win over DALL and DEN win over SD. 4 bets is too much, so I really really like the home teams in MIA +245 v. NO and KC +180 v. SD.

Teaser-wise I'm thinking locks at:
IND -7 @ STL
CHI +7.5 @ CIN (This goes with D$'s take that CIN doesn't win big, which I agree with, so the extra half point at 7.5 helps alot)
GB -1 @ CLEV
NE -9 "@" TB
NYJ +1 @ OAK
PHI -1 @ WASH

Uhm, match-up wise these seem like locks, but EVERY friggin game is picking the road-team, that feels weird. Gimme some take fellas, What do you wanna do for the Team Teaser bet?

Other teaser games I'll go with:
KC +11 vs. SD
MINN +10 @ PITT
HOU +3.5 vs. SF
MIA + 12.5 vs. NO
ATL +10 @ DAL
NYG -1 vs. ARI
PHI -0.5 @ WAS

Holla back,
Adolph

NFL INSANITY REPORT Week 7 - #2

NOTE: This is Adolph's Insanity Report received via email

K, so looking at the games, as always there are some tough calls. BUT, it seems like that every week, and this next statement may seem like nexl level shit, but the reason it seems like tough picks is that we, well I (I can't speak for all you guys) tend to overthink the picks at this time of the week, and turn off the ol' hunch-o-meter. So the next level shit is: GO WITH YOUR GUT!!! Stats do help, same goes with streaks, but the bottom line is go with the gut.

With that being said:

SD @ KC: The odds came late, and I'm thinking of riding the Cheifs on the money-line. I may stick to the original take in the first Insanity Report, and take KC as a good value bet at +180. San Diego still has the worst run defense in the league and Larry Johnson has a big game or 2 left in the tank. Point spread wise, just like 8 points was too much to give the Cowboys on the road at KC 2 weeks back, 5 points is too much to give the Lack-of-Charge-ers at KC. There is something to be said for taking care of the ball, and that's what KC does.

And one thing is not known, how a team that loses on a Monday nighter responds the following Sun with a short practice week? Anyone? Well, I say it doesn't bode well for SD.

IND @ STL: Indy covers. STL has no heart. Bob Sanders may return for the Colts this week, he's listed as questionable.

CHI @ CIN: Tough spread. The Money line is not out yet, which may lead to a pick-em. Cin is scrappy but unpredictable and I have no take on the Bears yet. None. Cutler signed his 2 year extension at 15 mill per? Ouch, talk about confidence in medicrity.

GB @ CLEV: Doesn't seem like such a gimme game for GB, but they should cover. If it's bet, then the bettor will be sweating until the last whistle. The reason is that I agree with Bill Simmons, in that Derick Anderson can win ugly, and this week may seem like one of those weeks. If the under-rated defense of GB is ever gonna show up on the perverbial radar, it better be this week.

MINN @ PITT: JDawg likes Pitt. I might too. Favra is en fuego, there's no doubt, but it was around this time last year with the Jets that he strted to come down to earth. But the Vikes are a better team than the Jets.....why? one word: AP!!!! But back to Favra's streak, he had a killer last second comeback at home v. San Fran and then followed that the next week v. Green Bay. He gets a week off with the Lions game and then barely gets by the Ravens. 2 teams playing each other that didn't cover last week. PITT is 1-5 ATS? I honestly have nothing, what do you guys think?

NE @ TB: In England!!!! This gimme game turns into a maybe game because the game is in OLD England rather then NEW England. The spread is rising at NE -15. Right now I still take NE -15. They did it last week vs. a hapless TENN team that has some talent, and they play a hapless team in TB that has no talent. I think the roll we were waiting for the Pats to go one, is happening now.

SF @ HOU: I'm rethinking my original hunch of HOU goin on a bit of a run these next 2 weeks. SF is coming off a bye week and +150 is a not bad value bet. That pretty much f's up my early week 6-pt teaser.

Anyways, I gotta get back to work, more to come,
adolph out.

Bill Simmons - NFL Week #7 Lines

Take a listen to Bill Simmons predict the Week 7 NFL lines and his takes on the games.

Let's get this party started!

We have all talked about creating a website/blog about sports & gambling for a while now, so I'm hoping this might be the start of something cool we can play around with. No real rules here, just BRING IT!

Looking forward to creating some weekly columns such as Adolph's Insanity Report, J-Dawg's locks of the week, money management tips from D-Money, or other random fun.

So let's get things started here, and who knows maybe this will get big!

D$ Out!

A little Gus Johnson to get us fired up....

... NFL Week #1 - Stokely catch versus Cincinnati. An instant classic.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OneiEg7rm20