Hey Fellow Inmates!!!!
It's February 1st.......one more calandar month until the greatest spectacle this side of Brett Favra's 6th comeback attempt in the fall of 2016......yep, we talkin' bout March Madness!!! Not the games, NOT THE GAMES!!.... But the entity known as March Madness!!!! Not, not the game that I die for, but the March Madness that we all live for!!!!
Getting slightly jacked, and accompanying this is perhaps a heavier trigger finger on the spreads. Here's some thoughts:
WAKE FOREST +18.5 @ FLORIDA STATEI've seen Wake play twice. Well, one and a half times. One time, Wake was on the tube and I was crochaying (spelling (?)) my commemorative Wayne Gretzky Turns 50 turltle neck. (Happy Birthday Wayner!!) But from what I saw, Wake is not as tragic as their record might dictate. They have some good prospects, and they do not choke away parts of the game away like FSU does. Also, FSU is not a given at home looking at their losses vs. the likes of Florida. FSU does have a W at home vs. Duke, but if anyone saw that game, they'd notice that FSU played great defense but choked offensively and missed opportunity after opportunity to run away from Duke like St. John's ran away from Duke on the weekend.
Big up's St. John's!!! I tell ya, I've always hated Steve Lavin. The only thing he has going for himself is his guinness book of world record as the longest interim head coach in history in staining the great coaching legacy of John Wooden at UCLA with his 6-7 year run there. I hated Lavin......until this past Sunday with their beat down of Duke in the MSG!!!! A thing of beauty. But Nolan Smith is still nails with his 32 points.
Back to Wake. They should cover, because they're young prospects will capitalize off the 2-3 spurts in the game where FSU will just hand them points. 18.5 points is way to much, but as the title states, I've been getting worked lately ATS, and my light trigger finger will stay away. But we monitor.....
KANSAS -13 @ TEXAS TECHBetting karma dictates that when you monitor a team and their current trend, and when you finally bet that trend, that the opposite will happen. It's part of the Costanza Phenomenon.
Texas Tech has been a tragic team the whole year and getting rolled ATS by an average of 6-7 points over the spread. Their sweat factor was as reliable as a Johnny Drama audition-call back. But ohhh noooooo, we lay some chee$e down on Nebraska +2 @ Texas Tech the other week, and TTech straight up wins!!!! OK, an anomaly I thought. So, next game Tech plays Iowa State who's been a pleasant ATS team surprise this year, and ISU should easily cover -10 at ISU. And friggin Tech wins straight up by 9 points! What the mutha-puss bucket!?!?!?!? Tech has won 3 straight games straight up to go with their 3 straight covers.
Something's gotta give v. Kansas tonight right? Well KU is 2-4 ATS in Big 12 action, and the Morris Twins are talented but can get out-physicaled (a for real good englished word) in the paint. At this very second, I've been swayed to Tech +13, so STAAAAAYYYY AWAY!!!!!!
BOSTON COLLEGE +2.5 vs. UNC
Rumor has it that UNC has snuck into the Top 25. As a fan, I say "yahoo". As a realist, I say,"don't matter, UNC is still tragic!!". I applaud the job and effort that Coach Roy Williams is doing with this group of tragic talents.
But my disdain for these band of misfits was culminated and during their game vs. Georgia Tech. John "Olive Oil" Henson was taking the ball to the hole and stopped at the low block. He pulled up and the Georgia Tech forward just reached and took the ball out of Olive's hands. Straight up took it from his hands better than Monty Burns took that lollipop from Maggie Simpson!!! Yes, the Tar Heels are winning ACC games. Yes they have improved once Roy inserted FR. PG Kendall Marshall into the starting lineup. But unless "Olive Oil" Henson takes a kilo of Barry Bonds "flaxeed oil", he will not get considerably stronger come tonight let alone the ACC tourney. And with this squad (outside of Tyler Zeller), you either have basketball IQ or you don't, and these past 2 recruiting classes DO NOT POSSESS BASKETBALL IQ!!!! And they won't attain it by tonight either!
I'll take the points on BC at BC everyday of the week and twice on Sunday!!!
PURDUE +8 @ WISCONSIN
Light trigger finger dictates to stay away. Wisconsin's home record dictates to stay away too.
But I can't shake Wisconsin's swing sets on offense. They have great forwards in Leuer, Nankivil, Jarmusz and even Mike Bruesewitz. (By the way, huge huge ups to the the Busy-Bee goggles from Sunset Park of SOPH. Ryan Evans. Coach Rhea Perlman would be proud.)
Back to Wisconsins offense. They play a 4 out, 1 in set where EVERYONE takes turns in the post, but they give minimal entry passes into the blocks. Their 4 talented bigs love to shoot the trey before commanding the paint. Purdue's JuJuan Johnson has been commanding the paint lately, and last time I talked Hoop Fundamentals with Bobby Knight, 60% of all hoops are scored in the paint.
Bill Raftery agrees, and he says, "I like Purdue with the points......in the paint.....playing Mahhh-de-maaahnnnn!!!!"
PENN STATE +8 @ ILLINOIS
D$ was elluding that the spread would not be as cushy with Penn State rolling over Wisconsin last week. But PSU is 7-2 ATS in the Big Ten with winning their last 5 ATS. Illinois is 4-4 ATS in the Big Ten going 1-4 in their last 5 conference games.
The kicker here is how Penn State is winning games and covering spreads. They have a legit Big Ten mini-me version of Jimmer Fredette in SR. Taylor Battle. Battle is good to score anywhere from 20-35 points in every game. But Penn State runs their offense through their bigs first. Battle will work within the offense and will find his shots when they present themselves, but not at the expense of the bigs.
Jeff Brooks, David Jackson and Andrew Jones have been versatile threats in the blocks, short corners and from down town!!! They keep the D honest from doubling Battle, as much as Battle keeps the D honest of doubling/tripling any of these bigs. Penn State can truly spread the floor, and they do so in a team oriented and efficient fashion. Not to mention their great block out boards, even from Battle.
Illinois' bigs? They're just ill-annoyingly over-rated!! I'm sick and tired of waiting for a bust out game from Mike Davis or Mike Tisdale. They will get the odd run of back to back hoops, and when this does happen, the announcers will add fuel to their over-rated fires!!! It disgusts me how over-rated Davis and Tisdale are. They offer no threats in the blocks and get garbage rebounds for put-backs.
Illinois super-PG, Demetri McCamey has finally bought in this year in sharing the ball. But he should go back to his Teenwolf days and jack 30-35 shots a game, because Davis and Tisdale lead the Big Ten in empty offensive possessions.
I'll take PSU's balance over Illinois' disorganized depth! Final point about the PSU Nittany Lions Nit-picking lack of bench. PSU relies on the above 4 players to play 35-36 minutes per game, but they rarely get in foul trouble and are conditioned anough to play these minutes night in and night out.
Great I just jinxed PSU via the Costanza Phenomenon.
But I still roll with the Nittany Lions, not the Sick Belly Buttons!!!!
Bring on March!!!
CrazyDavo out!
