Christmas Eve for College Football Fans

Today is Christmas Eve for College Football fans as after a tumultous and scandal ridden off season, we can finally watch the sport we love on the field. I have to admit after reading The Gold Sheet's special ticker I thought I had just read the local crime blotter! It has been hard to igonore all of the off season issues and it has had its impact on betting lines as well.

After getting into a punch up at a Baton Rouge Bar LSU has seen their starting quarterback Jordan Jefferson and linebacker Joshua Johns be suspended for their opening game against Oregon at Texas Stadium. This line opened at LSU -3 and currently is back on the board at the LV Hilton at Oregon -3.5. Meanwhile with 13 current Miami (Florida) players being ruled ineligable, because of their dealings with booster/criminal Nevin Shapiro the line has had even more of a significant shift as it has moved from Miami -6 to Maryland as a 3 point favorite.

But tomorrow night when UNLV is led to the slaughter house in Madison, Wisconsin on ESPN, we can all finally put this behind us and watch some football. Tomorrow I will make my picks for Week 1 and will continue to do so throughout the college football season. Hopefully together we can have a profitable 2011 season!

Jdawg

NFL Season Win Totals

As expected, the landslide of player movement in the NFL has been fun to follow and gets everyone eager to place their first bets on the new season.  "Eager" is the key word as lots of casual bettors and fans have been reportedly heading to the betting windows and throwing down lots of action already.... we recommend that you proceed with caution.

A lot has happened over the past couple weeks which still needs some analysis.  Obviously some sexy moves were made by the Eagles (Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Cullen Jenkins, etc) grabbing attention, but do these moves necessary make the Eagles as good as they are being hyped now?  Chemistry and team play are vital to success.

Although the initial tidal wave of signings has pretty much subsided, there are still some minor moves being made and it is important right now to watch teams for key injuries before rushing in to make bets on games or on Super Bowl odds.  (In the first week alone there have been 10 torn achilles ending seasons for players like Detriot's 2nd Rounder Mikel Leshoure.)

We will instead take a quick look at the Season win totals and some plays we are leaning towards right now....

Cincinnati :
The Bengals started the season at 7.5 wins and that total was quickly bet down to 5.5 by Vegas sharps who smelled blood.  Starting a rookie QB, possessing a suspect running game, and a general loss of talent makes this a good UNDER play.  Having a hard time finding 6 wins in their schedule (which would be a two win improvement over last year).  Three or four wins seems much more realistic.

New Orleans :
The Saints are looking like a team who will be challenging to get back to the Super Bowl.  They were able to sign a majority of their free agents and add some new pieces, this roster is improved and loaded at each position. Drew Brees should be 100% healthy this year and have a solid running game to support him.  The Saints season win total is 10 and we like the OVER.  This looks like a 12 or 13 win squad.

Miami :
The Dolphins are going to have a great defense this year which should keep their games close, the offense and coaching staff are a mess though.  Starting QB Hanne is simply not good will have no confidence after the failed Orton trade. The running game looks to be suspect too with last years starting RBs (R. Williams & R. Brown) on different teams now and depeding on big production for Reggie Bush.  Vegas has this team at 7.5 wins for the seasons and we like the UNDER as it is going to be hard for them to get to 8 wins.

Washington :
The Redskins look like they are already making plans to select Stanford's Andrew Luck next year with the way they approached the offseason. Admire them for getting rid of problems McNabb and Hainesworth, but they didn't replace the talent level.  Weak QB play, washed up RBs, and no pass rush, have Vegas betting the total of 6.5 UNDER hard!  

San Diego
IF the Chargers can get off to strong start (big IF with Norv Turner at the helm), they should be the runaway winner in the AFC West and easily can go OVER the season win total of 10.  A renewed focus on Special Teams which cost them at least 2 games last season, Vincent Jackson in camp and playing a full season, plus some key additions and re-signing in the offseason (Spikes, Weddle), has this group poised to be a Superbowl dark horse.  Like this group to win 12 to 13 games.

A few other teams to consider taking the UNDER include:

• Kansas City (7.5) - Chiefs had the easiest schedule last year in the NFL and getting to 8 wins will be tougher this year.
• Minnesota (7.0) - Think McNabb may be washed up and the rest of the Vikings moves in the offseason doesn't inspire confidence in a tough division.
• NY Giants (9.5) - This team revamped its O-line, lost some key players, and has some bad mojo/karma going on right now. 

As for team to consider the OVER...

• Jacksonville (6.0) - With the Colts being weaker they have a chance to grab to AFC South and signed (overpaid) for some veterans to help the Jags at least maintain the 8-8 record from last year.
• St. Louis (7.5) - Count us on the bandwagon.  Solid QB. Improved depth at all positions.  A favourable schedule in the worst division. 

Enjoy pre-season Week #1 and get your notebooks ready to take notes!

Game ON!   D$ OUT