Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Can Hardly Contain the Excitement!

If you haven't checked the calendar, guess what tomorrow is????? That's right MARCH!!!!  Buckle up, straight jacket time...... INSANITY IS HERE!!!!!!!!!!  
Every day from now until Selection Sunday is jammed with great games, all that homework you have been doing during the regular season NOW needs to be applied!!!   We got multiple conference tourneys kicking off today and money to make.  Time to get white hot and take a shot on some games!

Playing teasers has been a good play with oddmaker's lines being super sharp at this time of year.  Case in point, last night of the 18 games only 4 results did not fall within 10 points of the spread.  (i.e. a 10 point teaser had a 32/36 chance of winning or 89%!!!  With the home teams covering the four games that fell outside of 10pts of the spread)

We see a few games already to play.....
Alabama -12.5 vs Auburn: (5:00pm PST Tip)
With JaMychal Green back from suspension, Alabama is re-establishing themselves as a solid SEC team.  After winning their last three games, and upcoming winnable games vs Auburn and Ole Miss to finish the season, Alabama looks to get to a surprising 10-6 in the SEC and build some momentum heading into the tourney.  No doubt here, Auburn is a bottom feeder in the SEC.  Losers of 5 of their last 6 and 4-10 in conference play - this team lost to Alabama threes weeks ago by 18.  Expect more of the same tonight and love Alabama at home teased down to either -4.5 (8pt teaser) or -2.5 (10 pt teaser) as we expect them to cover the spread today.

Purdue -11.5 vs Penn State  (3:30pm PST tip)
This line opened up at -9.5 as was quickly bet up to 11.5, easy to see why.  Penn State is 1-11 on the road this year.  That one win was at the very bad Boston College on Nov 30th!!  Penn State is clearly the bottom of the Big 10 and looking forward to next year.  Purdue has caught fire as we approach march.  Winners of 4 of their last 5 including key victories against Michigan and Illinois on the road.  Their lone loss, was when DJ Bird and Barlow were suspended vs #5 ranked Michigan State on Feb 19th.  Purdue is now playing much better basketball when it counts, DJ Bird is back, and it has been addition by subtraction with Barlow being kicked off the team.  This is a bit of sandwich gaame after the big win @ Michigan and an upcoming matchup @ #20 Indiana on Sunday, but it is senior day for Robbie Hummel and expect Purdue to send him off as a winner tonight.  Love Purdue in a 8pt or 10pt teaser as they should roll Penn State.

Lehigh -21 vs Colgate (4:00pm PST tip)
No not the toothpaste, but Colgate the Patriot league bottom feeder (2-12 in conference, 8-21 overall), travels to Lehigh in what should be a complete mismatch.  These two teams have already played twice this year and Lehigh won by 20 and 22 points.  Lehigh is on a collison course with Bucknell for the Patriot League championship and the auto birth to the big dance.  Expect Lehigh to take care of business tonight in this Patriot League Quarterfinal - love them in a 10 pt tease.

New Mexico -16.5 vs Air Force (5:00pm PST tip)
Just a week ago New Mexico was the hottest team in college basketball, winners of 7 in row and back to back wins vs ranked San Diego State and UNLV.  What a difference a week makes.  Going on the road and losing to a fiesty Colorado State was not a suprise, and then a loss to TCU and suddenly New Mexico is no good anymore?  Expect them to get back on track tonight at home vs Air Force.  New Mexico beat this team by 39 points last time out - expect this one to be a little closer, but not that close.  New Mexico in a 8 or 10 pt teaser looks like a strong play today.

Some leans to.....
Belmont (-16) vs Jacksonville (tipping at 11:30am PST) - Atlantic Sun Quarterfinal

Bucknell (-17.5) vs Navy (tip at 4:00pm PST) - Patriot League Quarterfinal - Navy is winless in conference play this year.

Portland (-1) vs Santa Clara (tip at 9:00pm PST) - West Coast Conference Tourney - SC is 0-16 in conference play this year.


More research to come......

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Bracketology Report #1......get those straight-jackets to the drycleaners for the MaDneSs!!!!!!


Finally gotta break,......it's a bit mashed up, but this was an email to Insanity Report Staff...thought I'd share to the world. Here's our latest Bracketology Report

Check this out:

ACC:
- Virginia with OK wins but still SOS rank of 100
- Duke is Duke, high RPI/SOS but still suspect defense at best, and bet record plummets vs. other tourney teams. PLus it'll be a bit inflated with the win at UNC

BIG 10
- I think Northwestern is a lock for the Play-in game. It;ll be good tv and good rating with their storyline, and is they don't fuck up in their last couple games, they should deserve it
- Michigan State is #2 RPI and #1 SOS, with no mention of #1 overall in the country....best record in Big 10 which is the most legit conference in the country, check out the combined RPI's and especially SOS of the projected Big 10 tourney teams. Could make an argument that they deserve more berths than even the Big East. Prob won't happen though.

BIG 12
- Mizzou OK RPI, but 80th ranked SOS shows their fraud factor. Don't like their 4 guard set and Ratliffe not commanding enough as only forward. Plus Mizzou has no depth, no bench
- Baylor gets bad pub cuz of losses to Mizzou and KU, but overall a good RPI and SOS. Gonna be tough to keep up with the Jones'-zuzzzzzz, both PJ3 and Anthony.
- Watch out for Iowa State. Royce White is a sick double-double forward and Chris Allen ala Michiga State has tonnes o tourney experience. I like them. Coach Hoiberg has something going on.

BIG EAST
- D$ and I texted today about collective hate for UConn at this point. They've lost alot of games but have put themselves through the gauntlet with a 2nd ranked SOS. They probably get into the tourney. But wanna break down a game or two before I rush to their eventual judgement.
- Syracuse is real deal with their 2-3 zone, especially with Fab Melo in the middle. Also, their big 3 in Joseph, Jardine and Triche have tourney experience. Waiters and Fair are shizzo slashers to the hole. Not clutch scorers.
- Georgetown and Marquette's RPI and SOS show they are primed for at least Sweet 16 runs. GTown dismantled Notre Dental Damme last night. They have 4 rad rookies coming of the bench led by Otto Porter. He has an it factor on offense. Real good Hoop IQ but is a liability on defense, his youth shows. Slow recognition
- Seton Hall should get in, but West Virginia, and especially SoFlo should beat it straight to the NIT. Sorry Huggy Bear.

SEC
- Vandy has bad losses but an RPI/SOS similar to UConn's.....they've put themselves through the gauntlet like UConn to minimal avail. They could surprise some peeps. If their healthy, they might do some damage, but I wanna watch a game or two of these kats.
- Florida is Flori-shizzo
- Kentucky...3 RPI but 41 SOS? That reaks of a baaaaaaddddd SEC conference, plus Kentucky didn't have many road non-conference games. I say their youth will show in the tourney. Out by Elite Eight at latest.
- Alabama 41 RPI and 18 SOS...legit team or shizzo? Gotta see.

PAC 12
Worse then SEC
- Cal only tourney team in my eyes.
- UDub prob gets in due to committee's boner for BCS conferences.
- PLus Oregon/Arizona should duke it out for the play-in game
- Colorado has a shot with a deep tourney run.
- Too bad Stanford is so low, I like Josh Owens at forward

WCC
all three teams, Zags, St Mary's and BYU all earning at large berths, especially with St Mary's bracket buster W vs Murry Fraud State.

OVC
- Murray State with SOS of 208!?!?!?!?!?!?!???????? And Top 25 poll ranking? Ouch, upset city here.

Big West
- LB State, murderous row of non conference sked in pre season and only SOS of 108???? I think they win first game in tourney

IVY LEAGUE
- Harvard is slight smoke-n-mirrors team with 32 RPI but 188 SOS

HORIZON
Out of Cleveland State, Valpo and Butler, the highest RPI is Cleve State at 88 and highest ranking SOS is Butler at 125???? Fraud conference. Don't fall for this funk!!!

MAAC
- Iona with 44 RPI....how'd that happen. Gonna watch their conference tourney games to scout.

WAC
Not as wacky as we though. Nevada and New Mexico State with 57 and 67 ranked RPI respectively. One berth only still but wanna scout this conference tourney too.

ATL SUN
- Belmont...fear the belmont stakes here! 65 RPI, not bad. Bad SOS of course, but these players have 2 years of great tourney performaces for Belmont.....they get a 13 or 14 seed and depending on their draw, the 3 or 4 seed they're paired up could very well be a fraud team

SUMMIT LEAGUE
- Oral B Roberts and South Dakota State have surprisingly high RPI for their conference, 45 and 57 repsectively. Gotta watch this conference tourney!

Thoughts? Comments? Spit 'em out, the Madness is upon us!!!!

Commish out!!!!!

Friday, February 10, 2012

DUKE 85 @ UNC 84....TAR HEEL MELTDOWN

It's been a while! It's been a while since the Easycovers Staff have checked in, but even a longer while since last night's Tar Heel Meltdown! It has to be said...I have to get it off my chest. I can't sleep........I'm back chugging copious amounts of Goodhost Iced Tea! It's sickening how depressed myself and the whole Easycovers Staff is!

So let's break this instant ESPN Classic replay down first. Then after, we'll see how UNC and Duke will fair down the road come Madness time.

THE GAME!

It's simple. Complete Carolina meltdown!

The 1st half ended up a 43-40 lead for Carolina. It was all about Duke raining 3's like Ron Pettigrew's David "I make it Rain" Schmidt and the Tyler Zeller Show for Carolina. Zeller was as hot as a Jim Day heater at the craps table hitting post-up shots and running the floor like Terri McCarrell running after K-Smack's coach when he subbed off Kev from a game.

2nd half (pre-meltdown) was the Harrison Barnes Show. Barnes highlighted how Carolina can completely out-talent an opponent (despite some glaring weaknesses), and how Duke has no talent in relation to their Tobacco Road counterparts. (In relation, that is....eaaaasy Duke honks)

2nd half (meltdown) was how Duke has a Tebow-like intangible instilled from Coach K that find a way to win, demonstrated by the Austin Rivers 85-84 winning buzzer beater shot.

How? Here's the sit-ee-ation:

There's 3:30 left in second half. UNC is up 79-70. Barnes is at the line and goes 1-2 to go up 80-70. We're looking at a 4 possession lead for Carolina with friggin' 3 and a half minutes left.......IF ONLY CAROLINA COULD CONTROL THE EFFING CLOCK!

Disclaimer: This was a classic game. You can't script this shi..err schtuff. After Barnes' free throws, Seth Curry gets away with a stroll down Tobacco Road with a 4-5 step 3 pointer. Tyler Zeller tips in a Ryan Kelly 3 pointer, and Austin Rivers drops a buzzer-beater trey to silence the ruckus crowd in the Dean Dome!

Did Duke get lucky? Yes! Not by getting away with Curry's travel or Rivers' beater, but by UNC's horrible clock management!

Coming outta a timeout with 1:59 left, up by 7 points, UNC Point Guard, Kendall Marshall drops a horrible turnover 5 seconds into their possession with an entry pass softer then a John Henson post-move. Rather than eating the clock down to 1:30, Curry hits his 4-5 step 3 pointer with 1:44 on the clock. Come on Kendall!

Alright, so it's a 4 point lead for UNC and a 2 possession game with 1:30 to play. UNC can still eat clock.

Uhmmm no! This is followed by a Harrison Barnes charge with 17 frickin' seconds left on the shot clock!

Again the Tar Heels didn't eat the clock down! Tyler Zeller could have bailed Carolina by hitting his free throws down the stretch to keep a 2 possession cushion, but he goes 2-4 from the line. He shouldn't have had to bail out UNC. If Marshall's turnover and Barnes' charge are replaced by 30 second possessions, then there would be about 35-40 seconds left with UNC up 4-5 points. But instead, there's an extra 45 seconds left on the clock with plenty of time for what ensued.

so yadda yadda yadda, Austin Rivers hits a buzzer beater 3 pointer to give Duke an 85-84 win.

They should have ate up the clock! That's it! Eat clock...take care of the bloody ball and we're alone in first place in the ACC with a Florida State loss that same night!

F#@& !!!!!!! Carolina, you did a shit tonnes of great things tonight. You dominated the paint as usual with high percentage shots and 10 rebound advantage. You had 6 more assists then Duke and a better Turnover to Assist Ratio! You just melted the fudge down with a brain fart stinkier then Austin Rivers' post-game speech.

Rivers told Sideline Reporter and consummate pro, Erin Andrews that "God made the ball go in". Newsflash!.... Yo, Austin 3:16!....God does not give a flying Tyler Hansborough-elbow who wins the game!!!!!! You made a shot chalk full of stones, so give yourself some credit, cuz there is no version of "Angels in the Backcourt" and Kadeem Hardison's not going to come back from the dead to guide the ball in!

Anyways, what about the outlook for Duke?

They have no consistent play in the post from the Plumlee brothers or Ryan Kelly. Miles Plumlee can take over small parts of the game, but is rarely visible come clutch time. Mason Plumlee is still a major disappointment after showing promise in his first 2 years at Duke. And Ryan Kelly can shoot the pill, but offers little in the much needed physical play that the Plumlee brothers can't offer without getting into foul trouble.

In the backcourt, there is no true point guard, and overall, you know there's problems when Coach Crazy-face-after-River's-buzzer-beater-zewski is still shuffling the starting line-up this late in the season. Will this victory over UNC help turn things around? Does it give Duke it's stable line-up. We'll see.

The one glaring weakness that UNC exploited was Duke's horrible perimeter defence. They give up too many drives which leads to the Plumlee's/Kelly stepping out on the help-side giving up easy drive-n-dish lay-ups. Last night, the bigs didn't step out too much, leading to easy Kendall Marshall lay-ups. There looks to be no solution for Duke with this problem. Add this with Duke's huge reliance on the 3-pt shot, and it seems like it'll be tough to win many consecutive games come the Madness.

Coach K can sneak out a Sweet 16 performance, but their bad perimeter defence will do 'em in, as well as the liklihood that they'll be cold from downtown at least once out of a possible 6 tourney games.

UNC? They're outlook for March?

Pure and utter talent ala Kentucky, but with Madness experience. Zeller is so consistent on both ends of the court. Harrison Barnes has talent coming outta his ears and takes over games like he did in the 2nd half last night. But his streaky-ness goes both ways as he can be as quiet as a first-year HKIN Dave Adolph at the back of the class for big chunks of games, if not for entire games. Forget his hobbled ankle, because he looked pretty good during his 20-some-odd point 2nd half last night.

John Henson alters every opponents' game plans with his albatross arms with easy blocked shots and shot altering close-outs. He had a consistent 15 foot jumper vs. Duke, but it remains to be seen if he can pull that J off game in and game out. He needs that jumper to fall because, as a Junior, and 20 extra pounds added to his Olive Oil freshman frame, he is still pillowy soft with his post moves.

And Kendall Marshall has better vision in the open court then anyone in the nation, but he passes up more open jump shots then he makes. Those passed-up shots ruin many half-court possessions. Those half-court possessions, at this point of the season, are much needed, due to every opponent dropping 3-4 players back quickly to limit the feared UNC fast break.

With the decreased fast break opportunities for UNC comes more half-court defensive possessions. This exposes their horrible perimeter defence particularly with guarding the 3-pt shot. They lost to UNLV in November due to UNLV's barrage of 3's and did so last night with Duke's 36 friggin 3-pt attempts.

UNC! Here's an idea! You have John Henson, Tyler Zeller, and Harrison Barnes taking over space in the blocks, so why don't you get your friggin' feet outside the muther-effing 3-pt line to put more pressure on the 3-pt shooters!!!?!?!?!?!?! Every 3-pt shot last night was defended with both feet of the UNC defender inside the arc.

Again, with the 3 forwards in the blocks, step out and force the drive into John Henson's shot-blocking prowess or Tyler Zeller's knack for drawing charges.

Roy!!! Can you hear me!?!?!?!

These are fixable problems. UNC can still get hot. They have the talent and ability to make theses simple adjustments to make a deep run in March. But their lack of intangibles displayed in last nights meltdown or in their beatdown to Florida State 2 weeks back, could suggest they don't get out of the first weekend of the Madness.

Trust in Roy, he'll make the adjustments. And Coach K will get the Dukies to overachieve.....unfortunately!

I feel better now. Good night now!!!!!

Yours in MAdNeSs,
Crazy Davo