Saturday, October 31, 2009

INSANITY REPORT - WEEK 8 #2 - Early picks....what do you think?

Alright, if anybody has read Bill Simmons' Week 8 picks, you can rest assured that the Easycovers Staff and Bill are on the same wavelength. Just like the "simbotics" of Bill in his column, Rule #1 of the Insanity Report is "stick with your gut"!!!! Well Rule #1 was that the Home team is the almighty tie-breaker, but in actuality for the past 4-5 years, I've been kicking myself with the ultimate Monday-Morning-Quarterback Hindsight of 1800-20.....and that is: TRUST THE INSANITY REPORT!!! That is, I'd get some takes in early with an Insaniy Report, and then over analyze the games and make some changes here and there. That sort of paralysis through analysis is as useless as breaking down a Marisa Miller-Kate Beckinsale match-up!!!! As the EA Sports guy says.....lets file that under: non-issue!!!!

Anyways, the point being is just like Bill's "simbotics": TRUST YOUR GUT. I should've trusted the original Insanity Reports and all would be good in the universe. Well all is good in the Universe....the UNC Tar Heels are defending College Hoops champs. Shit, stay off the tangents Adolph!!!

This weeks pick look as such:

(These aren't official until final consultation with the Easycovers Staff Sunday morning before kick-off, but here goes.....)

DEN +160 @ BAL: With this, I'm sticking to my gut. I've made some good money on Denver all season, and each time I've placed a bet for the Junk-in-da-Bronc, I've been scared constipation-ful AND the Broncs have pulled through. That is exactly what's going on this week: I have a hunch on da Bronc, betting them scares the be-Shuttlesworth outta me and they better pull through!!!!

JAX +145 @ TENN: Will Vince Young EVER be ready to start an NFL game? That's the question. One answer is: Not this week. He's never showed any signs of wanting to dig the Titans out of their hole during their oh-fer run, and by forcing him to start is doing no one any favors. This should make the GM of the Houston Texans look even more the genius by picking Mario Williams over Vince.

DAL-9.5 vs. SEA: Seattle made a call to Brian Bozworth and Cortez Kennedy this week to see if they were available. They are going too deep into their no-so-deep depth chart with these injuries. Plus, the new Jerry Jones Mausoleum is indeed a dangerous place to play for visiting teams. Also also, Tony Romo's new found relationship with Miles Austin has started the "Romo-stin Watch" in this past issue of US Weekly!!!! Enjoy the honeymoon bettors, and ride the 'Boys -9.5. Plus some spreads have the Cowboys at -10, so get your picks in early before the spread keeps rising like Jennifer's waistline. Uhhhh, too soooooon!!!!!

IND -13 vs. SF: The new found hook-up between Alex Smith and Vernon Davis last week vs. HOU won't happen this week vs. the Colts. Peyton's not gonna let this happen. Cue the 20 point spreads in 1-2 weeks for the Colts.

ARI -10 vs. CAR: It's nice to ride the Warner-Fitz-Anquan wave, but even better to ride their under-rated Defense. Cue up 2 pick sixes for the Cards secondary from Daylight-Come-and-Me-Wanna-Del-INT!!!!!

NO -11 vs. ATL: Nawlins took apart the NY Football Giants 2 weeks ago at home. What makes any of us think that the Yippe-ki-yay-Mr-Falcons are in the same stratosphere as the G-Men!!!! Plus like we should've done last week, and like it was written (so let it be so), keep riding the Saints-Covering-Every-Week Wave!!!! (NOTE: "Yippeee-ki-yay-Mr-Falcon" was a sorry attempt to cover the MF-er part in this classic line on the TV version of Die Hard 2, which made this even more of a classic)

SIDE NOTE: Does anyone find it extremely weird that Tim Tebow broke the SEC career rushing TD record today????? He's a QB and he broke Hershal Walker's record. Herschel Walker!!!! He was a pretty decent RB in a long list of killer SEC running backs and Tim friggin Tebow broke his record. I'm so rattled I have no idea how to spell Hershall!!!!!

Friday, October 30, 2009

INSANITY REPORT - WEEK 8 #1

Well, at first glance, the easycovers Staff was thinking that there are some tough games this week. That remains the case, but there are upset picks to be had this weekend, there has to be, look at some of these odds.........

DEN @ BAL: The Junk-in-the-Bronc are on fuego, and still 3 pt dogs at Baltimore. No shock though, as the Ravens are a good team. They have a high power offense and a statistically disappointing defense. Overall. they're D is disappointing, but their horses in Lewis and Reed can still dictate a game. The Broncos have a a steady O and a tenacious D. The easycovers gut says that the Tenacious D usually dictates the game more than the High Powered O. And at +160, betting the Broncos is never a bad bet.

CLE @ CHI: Da Bears are a disappointment, but they did cover against a shitty Lions team earlier this year. Chicago is indeed disappointing, but they're no Pittsburgh Steelers; they should cover at home against the Div II teams.

HOU @ BUF: B-lo's QB is a former Harvard "star". Wow, now that's a new lo for B-lo. HOU's offense is too dangerous over the Bills.

MIN @ GB: Staying away from this game due to pure emotion. But the easycovers gut feels that both teams are too good for any one team to sweep both games this season, so GB should take the game. The ghost of Vince Lombardi at the Frozen Tundra won't let Favra come back to win at his former home.

SF @ IND: I agree with Paulsen, in that inserting a 2nd chance QB in Alex Smith won't infuse enough mojo for the Niners, and especially not against Peyton at home in the new Hoosier Dome. The spread at 13 pts for Indy is not high enough, and once the Colts cover again this week, then Vegas should bite the bullet and insert a 20 point spread.

MIA @ NYJ: A Divisional Grudge match. Take the home team.

STL @ DET: Insert all jokes. They've all been said. But STL has nothing and I mean nothing going for them. One or both of Stafford and Johnson may return for the Lions. At least they have some young talent to build upon. If there was no Stafford or Johnson on the Lions roster, then this would be a Div III match up.

SEA @ DAL: We all know about the Seahawks' injury woes, especially with losing Lofa Tatupu for the season now. Regardless of the Seahawks' situation, the bottom line is that the Cowboys are establishing a comfort at home, and the new Cowboy Mausoleum is indeed a Cowboy haven for wins. Take the 'Boys. Plus, this is a game that the Cowboys should win, so Romo should not choke. Last week was a revelation with that performance vs. the ATL, but he still has a jekyl-n-hyde quality about him, but the Jekyl should be out this week.

OAK @ SD: A Div II team on the road. Take the Chargers of course. The NFL should look into some sort of relegation this year. The Rams, Raiders, Browns, Cheifs and Lions should be on some sort of 2 year probation after this season.

JAX @ TEN: So we have Vince Young who came into the league with all the hype in the world. He has tapped out every drop of that hype due to his case of 3rd Degree Mental Midgetry!!! So now you have the Titans forcing the return of Vince Young in the starting spot? Where he has done nothing to show that he is ready to take a snap without leaving his straight jacket!?!?!? Take the Jag's.......Jones-Drew will have a hay-day on the Titans anyways.

CAR @ ARI: Another case of a bum team on the road. And Arizona is no one shot deal. They are the real deal from their Super Bowl run of a year ago. Watching their games this year, they have the fire power in Warner, Fitx and Anquan (not Antwoin), but their Defense is this week's Sneaky Good Team of the week. They have the D-line to take over the ever important battle in the trenches, and they will surprise some teams again this year. But wallaping the Panthers this week will be no surprise.

NYG @ PHI: Another Divisional Grudge Match. Take the Giants. Wesbrook is hurting for the Eag's, and Eli has a great stable of receivers.

ATL @ NO: There is no breaking anything down on this match up. The Saints proved last week that they are on a roll. Ride this wave of covering games no matter the match up or the spread. Plus playing on Monday night and at home. Saints all the way.

That it. What are your thoughts.

Adolph out.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Gambling 101 - Money Management


Unless you are lucky enough to stumble upon a sports almanac like Biff does in Back to Future II, there are some basic principles which every wise gambler should follow for long term success. You can do an excellent job spending hours analyzing games, keeping up to date on injury news and betting trends, but all that work will be for not if you don't follow solid money management practices at the time you make your bet.

It is rare for someone with poor money management to consistently beat Vegas. This can be illustrated with a simple example involving some NFL bets on the spread from Week 7.

Imagine you and your buddy each have $500 to bet the spreads for five games. You both agree on the games you like - feeling the Bears will be an easy cover. Your friend makes the following bets:

Game #1 - Bet $77 to win $70 : Packers (-9) over the BROWNS (Win $70)
Game #2 - Bet $99 to win $90 : Colts (-15) over the RAMS (Win $90)
Game #3 - Bet $247 to win $224: Bears (-1) over the BENGALS (LOSE $247)
Game #4 - Bet $44 to win $40: Saints (-6) over the DOLPHINS (Win $40)
Game #5 - Bet $33 to win $30: Eagles (-7) over the REDSKINS (Win $30)

Your friend was an impressive 4 for 5 (80%) with his picks, but unfortunately his one bad pick was the Bears (Game #3). So instead of running to the bank to collect his winnings, he actually loses $17.00!

You are a little wiser than your friend and bet an equal amount on each game. And unlike your friend you decide to take the Dolphins last minute instead of the Saints as you become convinced that they have a strong chance to upset.

Betting $100.00 to win $90.91 on each game you go 3 for 5 or (60%) for the week, which is still pretty respectable. You WIN 3 x $90.91 - 2 x $100 = $72.73! Almost $90 better than your buddy who did a better job picking the games than you did!

This example is a bit extreme, but it does show the importance of keeping your betting unit consistent when you are gambling. An interesting note: If you had kept the same picks as your buddy in this example, that would add up to a tidy $260+ profit and very solid week of gambling. (Perhaps you might buy your buddy a few drinks to help console him with all your winnings! )

So remember, keeping your betting unit consistent is basic gambling strategy which should be followed when trying to take on Vegas. Whatever betting unit you decide on using (be it $10, $100, or $1000) make sure to stick with it for all bets. If you develop some handicapping skills you will have a much better chance to pull down profits over time by following this basic gambling principle.
Until next time....
thevegaswhale is out!

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Afternoon Games Recap

So, the favourites for all of Sunday's games were 9-3 straight up and 9-2-1 against the spread (ATS). It was a tough day vig wise as no upset picks panned out.

CHI @ CIN: The understated grudge match for CIN RB, Cedric Benson panned out as a slap in da Bears face. Well the slap happened around the 3rd quarter when the Bears decided to show up. By that time, Cedric had 5 miles of rushing and the Bengals were up by 30. The Easycovers Staff were shooting themselves for betting this game as the original Insanity Report stated that this game should not be bet. Bah!!!!!

NYJ @ OAK: Didn't watch this game much but the Over-Paiders made their first good move of the season by FINALLY benching Crapmarcus Russell in the 3rd. He remains the worst player in NFL history.

BUF @ CAR: Stayed away from this game with a 10 foot pole. Apparently BUF won 20-9 with a no-name quarterback and Delhomme had 3 INT's. Man he blows. The only thing about this game is that only Gus Johnson can make a BUF/CAR game sound interesting. Without Gus on the mic, this game is as interesting as the Sunday Night Football Pre-game Show on NBC. Bring back NFL Primetime on ESPN!!!!!! And why does Gus get assigned to Bengals and BUF/CAR games!?!?!?!?!? When will CBS get their heads outta their a$$es and assign Gus as their lead announcer!!!! I mean Jim Nance??? Without Gus on the mic, the BUF/CAR game is as interesting as a Jim Nance called game!!!

NO @ MIA: 2 things happened here. First of all, an entertaining game. But happening #1 was that with a 24-3 lead, Miami flat out ran out of steam in the 2nd half. There was one play when the MIA receiver tried to run out of bounds and his knees buckled and he chucked the ball out of bounds trying to stop the clock. The penalty on this play was an "illegal forward pass", which was made because there is no "illegal chucking of the ball" penalty which it should have been called. Come on Stripes!!!!

Miami's Ted Ginn is the "Combine Player of the Year". This guy has great testing scores in the Combine which is evident in his lightning speed, but he has no football ability. He can't catch, he's not tough, that is, he hears footsteps and is not willing to take a bump to catch the ball. The guy has great physical skills but no "football talent". Beat it Ginn!!!

Oh and the 2nd thing that happened: Brees blew up MIA's D and did what ever he wanted in the 2nd half. This guys is a stud. Sorry Peyton, we have our MVP in Brees this year!!!!

ATL @ DAL: 2 things happened here: #1 is that Matt Ryan didn't have a Matt Ryan game. He was outta sync and had no rhythm. #2 is that Romo didn't go Romo and choke away a couple overthrown balls and costly INT's. Weird man!!! He's found a new receiver in Austin and they have more chemistry than he had with Jessica. Zing!!! Had to go there.

ARI @ NYG: Didn't see the game. Had to dominate my Div II Kerrisdale Co-ed Basketball League game. Adolph's line: 12 pts, 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 16 turnovers. A great improvement on the TO factor and his rebounding is as soft as Ginn running through the middle!!!!

That's it, great games. MIA/NO was the game of the day. A play here and there in the MIA/NO and/or the MIN/PIT game coulda gone MIA and NO's way. But shit.....any given sunday right!!!!

Adolph out.

Morning Games recap

Well, good games.........bad picks


SD @ KC: Shoulda listened to Paulsen on this one. He said, KC may be a not-bad team, but they have no offense and SD did put up 20 on Denver last week. This was such a bad pick, cuz KC is KC and how could they win 2 straight games!?!?!?!?!? Idiot!!!!

IND @ STL: Game was over by warm-up. Didn't watch much of it due to the fact it was STL.

GB @ CLEV: Talk about the bust out game for GB we were waiting for. I feel sorry for Cleveland fan having such a brutal team. They are so bad that the "Dawg Pound" in Cleveland is irrelevant. Somewhere, Arsenio Hall is spinning in his celebrity z-list grave.

MIN @ PIT: This was a break even in terms of shock/no-shock. THE SHOCK: Pitt covered for the first time this decade. NO SHOCK: Farve comes back down to earth. In Minn's defense, you gotta give credit to Troy Polamalu. I mean, he's the Deion Sanders of safety's. Favra passed only towards the sidelines and stayed away from Polamalu. That limited Minn the whole game, but Minn, you do know you have Adrian Peterson in the back field right???? Use the guy.

NE @ TB: This game was another fantasy league bust-out game for all owners that have Pats players. The game was as boring as 80% of the personalities of all the english fans in the stands.

SF @ HOU: The Texans squeaked out another win. Talk about a tale of 2 halves once again for HOU. SF is not as sexy of a pick anymore. And we still stay away from HOU in terms of point spreads. This week they pushed at -3.

That's it for the morning games, and early comments for the afternoon games: CHI didn't make the trip to CIN. NO SHOW on da Bears part!!!!!!!

Saturday, October 24, 2009

NFL Week 7 - Laying Down Your Cheese

After a few emails going back and forth between the Cover The Spread correspondents, we like the following 6-pt Teaser for NFL Week 7:

IND -7 @ STL
GB -1 @ CLEV
NE -9 @ TB
NYJ +1 @ OAK
CHI +5 @ CIN
ATL +10 @ DAL
PHI -1 @ WASH
(7 Games with 10 to 1 odds)

Decided to add the Bears here. CHI didn't look bad against ATL on Sunday night and lost in the last minute while driving to tie the game. CIN hasn't blown anyone out in their wins and their defense was dealt a major blow this week with stud DT Antwan Odom now out for the season with an achilles injury.

Reluctant to add the Giants -1 in the teaser as their wins have been against some of the league bottom feeders - need to prove themselves a bit more before the cheese gets laid on them. That being said, the Cardinals don't have a strong track record of doing well in games when the have to travel across the country. Giants Defense should give Warner a hard time and Boldin may be not be 100% which is just another factor to consider.

Friday Roundup - Bill Simmons Picks for NFL Week 7

NFL: TWEETING WEEK 7

CHIEFS (+4.5) over Chargers
My buddy Gus (a DEN fan) e-mailed me during Monday's SD-DEN game: "Know what I just realized? I am no longer afraid of LaDainian Tomlinson."

TEXANS (-3) over Niners
Houston can throw on them. BTW, M. Crabtree is on pace to shatter the "most times picked up or waived" fantasy record. A 2001 Bonds HR pace.

Patriots (-14.5) over Bucs
TB/TEN secondaries back to back turn Brady into a fantasy stud again. Wouldn't it be fun if London's fans booed the "Patriots" like crazy?

Colts (-13) over RAMS
Definitely NFL's version of 1 vs. 16 March Madness matchup. Does anyone else think Austin Collie sounds like the coolest dog breed ever?

Vikings (+4) over STEELERS
Noah in Seattle: "Can we start a petition stopping announcers from saying Favre is having fun out there?" But he's having fun out there!

Packers (-7) over BROWNS
Nate from Cleveland proposes a new weekly wager: Josh Cribbs vs. Cleveland's offense. I have Cribbs laying 3.5 points this week.

PANTHERS (-7) over Bills
Yes to wagering against Fitzpatrick on the road + a Bills D that gave up 300+ yards rushing last week. No to throwing Delhomme in a tease.

Jets (-6) over RAIDERS
Emotional game for NYJ after the Sanchize Bandwagon's grisly crash injured 650k Jets fans last week. Hey JaMarcus, can I offer you a blitz?

Bears (+1.5) over BENGALS
Antwan Odom: crushing loss for Cincy. Great matchup for Bears' offense. Easy road win unless Lovie Smith blows it (and don't rule that out).

Falcons (+4) over COWBOYS
I don't trust Dallas even a little. Also, Texas reader P. Folta sent me a fake e-mail from Romo: "Do you think Kate Hudson has any sisters?"

DOLPHINS (+6.5) over Saints
The Underdog Lock of the Week. What better way to screw up a juggernaut's momentum than by throwing 470 goofy Wildcat formations at it?

Cardinals (+7) over GIANTS
Didn't last week prove you can throw on the Giants? And don't you worry about Eli's fluttering passes on a windy/cold Sunday night?

Eagles (-7) over REDSKINS
If you live in DC: Come to ESPN Zone to watch the Skins get slaughtered with me before my midnight book signing! We can boo them together.

Last Week: 9-5
Underdog Locks: 4-3
Season: 58-32

Friday, October 23, 2009

Thursday Review - The NBA is borderline UNWATCHABLE


After spending 20 of my hard earned dollars to watch a preseason game between the Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns last night, I have come to the obvious conclusion that the NBA is borderline unwatchable. The quality of game is so poor, give me college hoops any day instead.

The only reasons that I didn't completely waste my money here was Steve Nash is a solid dude (nice to see him playing in hometown) and more importantly the Phonenix Suns Dance Team made the trip up from Arizona!


By the way, I think that cheerleaders is something that NHL teams up here in Canada should seriously be looking at adding to enhance the in game experience. Canucks Mascot 'Fin' would seem to very much agree as he spent a large part of the night macking on the Phoenix girls at the game - can't say I blame him by the way!



Thursday, October 22, 2009

Wednesday Review: Canucks Win, Big Hit by Mitchell!


Lots of talk about Willie Mitchell's massive hit on Jonathan Toews in Wednesday nights game versus the Blackhawks. Early candidate for hit of the year. This clean open ice smack down was definitely the TSN turning point in the Canucks comeback win. (See the hit by clicking on the picture to the right -->)

A good rivalry developing between the two clubs. These two teams next play each other on Sunday November 22nd, might want to circle that one on the old calendar.

The Canucks should be back to .500 on the season after a home game against my winless Leafs this Saturday. Seems like a no brainer if planning on throwing a few bucks down on the game.



NFL INSANITY REPORT Week 7 - #3‏

NOTE: This is Adolph's Insanity Report received via email

Ok, so, first off, D$, I love the easycovers blogspot.com site. It's a friggin keeper. I don't know how to say this, but I'm blog illiterate, and couldn't figure out how to post........Its probably staring me in the face, but for now I gotta get these picks off my chest. I'll add to the blog when I get my head outta my blog-tail. But for now, here's the last Insanity Email beore we go Blog.

Blog, it's better than bad, it's BLOG!!!!

So, there's 6 more games to go over for the team bets, but here's an update on the first games once again:

SD @ KC: Sticking to my guns. KC/SD is a divisional game and KC is at home. That is rule #1 from the first NFL Insanity Report: When in doubt, go with the home team. Lookin back at history, the past few years, SD has killed KC even in KC. But that was back when the Chiefs blew and LaDanian was LT (plus he had the facemask that had so many bars on it, it gave 6 out of every 10 people a seizure). But LaDanian Tomlinson is not LT anymore, he's just LaDanian, there's a difference. Things have changed this year. KC is not a contender by no means, but they're better then people think and SD is worse then people think. This doesn't have to be on the team Teaser Bet, but book Adolph betting money line on the Chiefs +180.

IND @ STL: Peyton with a 40th straight 300 yd game. Staying with the Colts to fold the Shams.

CHI @ CIN: Staying away from this game. Well, lets take a look: CIN is 1-2 at home. They lost to DEN in Week 1 when Gus lost his larynx. Then came back to beat PITT in Week 3 and then laid an egg last week to HOU. Da Bears by the way, on the road this year are 1-2 as well. They lost a tight game until the last 2-3 min in the Frozen Tundra of GB in Week 1, then beat the CFL version of the Seahawks in Week 3, and were in tight at ATL last week. I'd say CHI in this one, but the kicker is, CHI has a chance to come out at 1-1 in their 2 game swing on the road and the Bengals have a chance to salvage a .500 record at home in their 2 game home stand. 2 desperate teams. My gut says Da Bears, but my cold feet say stay away from putting money down on this game. Unless..........

GB @ CLEV: This was booked when Bill Simmons said the same thing on his podcast, in that GB is due to bust out from under their radar, and he also added that CLEV is due to have a Cleveland performance and come down to the status of the crappy teams with the other TB/OAK/STL/DET's of the world. GB covers. Book it.

MINN @ PITT: I wrote in my last email that it was this time last year that Favra came back down to earth, but the ol' gut says not yet this week. Maybe not at all. I may be inclined to stay with Paulsen's brother, Ryan "Turpentine" Paulsen's prediction of the Vikes as this years Super Bowl Champs. But that's been his prediction every year since we were playing Tecmo Bowl on the ol' school Nintendo game systems. My thumbs still have scars from those controllers!!!! But take the Turpentine Karma with J-Dawg's decree that Ben Rothlessthanaburger is the "Worst 2-time Super Bowl Winner" of all time and the fact that Pitt is riding a RB that has come outta no where. Favra's hot and AP is a RB that has come out of everyone's Fantasy League as the Top Pick........not a waiver wire pick-up like Rashard "Jake" Mendenhall. Oh and that Money Line pick is a juicy +170 for the Vikes. Me likey.

NE @ TB: stays the same. TB is a hapless team with no talent. Note, Billy Greene, our 2nd year UBC QB has Brady, Moss and Welker in his Fantasy League, and got 103 points alone from those 3 guys last week vs. 43 total points from the team he was matched up with!!! Whoa!!

SF @ HOU: Gonna stick with my gut on this this. SF has Frank "You're Mother's A" Gore coming back from injury against a HOU defense that can't defend the run. HOU has Andre "The Skinny Giant" Johnson against a SF D that can't defend the pass. Johnson is more of a game changer than Gore. Michael Crabtree may start for the Niners this week, and so once again, who do you take in that match-up? Johnson or Craptree? Plus HOU can stick in Steve Slaton who can get yards and keep a defense honest even though the Texans are close to the bottom of the league in Run Offense. San Fran shit the bed at home 2 weeks ago to the ATL, so even a bye-week won't help the Niners.

NYJ @ OAK: I agree with Bill Simmons, in that Mark "Dirty" Sanchez's 5 INT's last week made the spread 6 points from Vegas oddsmakers, rather than the usual 10 points vs. Oakland. But the kicker here, is that Oakland's JaFarcus Russell is still the worst football player in NFL history. He's even worse than "Batman" on Paulsen's and Adolph's bantam community football team back in Grade 10, and he was bad!!! Sanchez won't shit the bed like Donavan did last week, and NYJ's defense will have 1 maybe 2 Pick-Sixes off of Russell's ducks, to add insurance to any Sanchez miscues.

BUF @ CAR: The spreads aren't out yet as everyone waits for the report on BUF QB Trent Edwards' concussion. This game stinks, and with both teams stinking, I say just take the underdog in the teaser, as in whoever the winner is, either it'll be the underdog or the favorite but the fav won't win minus the spread and 6 pt's. NOTE: Carolina's Steve Smith said in the media this week that he's not "an asset" to Carolina anymore. And that doesn't bode well when you gotta differentiate Steve Smith who just 2-3 years ago was the best WR in football as "Carolina's Steve Smith" from the NYG's Steve Smith. With Steve Smith's gripe vs. T.O's weekly crap, this game is henceforth, THE SOUR GRAPES BOWL!!! Take the eventual underdog plus 6 points in the Teaser Bet.

NO @ MIA: It's a hunch, but I go with JDawg. Take the Fish at home. The Dolphin's Wildcat will be used to keep ball possession and Drew Brees on the bench. At +245 for the Fish, this is a juicy bet. Bill Simmon's had this take on his podcast and it sold me.

ATL @ DALL: Again, I stick to my guns here too. On sports.com, 99% of the moneyline bets are for the Falcons as well as 87% for the ATL on the spread. The Cowboys are the Bose Headphones, Ex-BOSE-ed Team of the Week. Romo will be on his choking-great passes rollercoaster and Matt Ryan will disect the heavily over-rated Cowboys D. The ATL is in at +170.

ARI @ NYG: People, and by people, that means Bill Simmon's podcast, think that the Giants secondary are all of a sudden bad because they got shellacked by the Saints last week. Well, that's not on the Football Giants' secondary being horrible, it's just that Naw'lins is that good. I know Arizona has a similar air attack in Fitz and Kurt, but not so much with the NYG at home. I'll take the NYG to cover. What do you guys think?

PHI @ WASH: Just like PHI gave OAK a win last week, WASH will give PHI an easy win this week with the whole play-calling fiasco in the Redskins' camp. Every player as well as Head Coach, Jim Zorn is saying their rattled by giving the play calling duties to Perfect Stranger, Balky Bartalkamous. It's no question that it'd rattle a head coach and team behind closed doors, but to blast one's rattled-ness in the media? This is too much of a circus for WASH to come out with a win.

So bets wise, I'm thinking of taking 4 seperate moneyline bets of KC +180, MINN +170, MIA +245, and ATL +170. It's not a lock for a parlay bet obviously, but cashing out on an upset pick has helped me these past 3 weeks with the DET winover WASH, DEN win over DALL and DEN win over SD. 4 bets is too much, so I really really like the home teams in MIA +245 v. NO and KC +180 v. SD.

Teaser-wise I'm thinking locks at:
IND -7 @ STL
CHI +7.5 @ CIN (This goes with D$'s take that CIN doesn't win big, which I agree with, so the extra half point at 7.5 helps alot)
GB -1 @ CLEV
NE -9 "@" TB
NYJ +1 @ OAK
PHI -1 @ WASH

Uhm, match-up wise these seem like locks, but EVERY friggin game is picking the road-team, that feels weird. Gimme some take fellas, What do you wanna do for the Team Teaser bet?

Other teaser games I'll go with:
KC +11 vs. SD
MINN +10 @ PITT
HOU +3.5 vs. SF
MIA + 12.5 vs. NO
ATL +10 @ DAL
NYG -1 vs. ARI
PHI -0.5 @ WAS

Holla back,
Adolph

NFL INSANITY REPORT Week 7 - #2

NOTE: This is Adolph's Insanity Report received via email

K, so looking at the games, as always there are some tough calls. BUT, it seems like that every week, and this next statement may seem like nexl level shit, but the reason it seems like tough picks is that we, well I (I can't speak for all you guys) tend to overthink the picks at this time of the week, and turn off the ol' hunch-o-meter. So the next level shit is: GO WITH YOUR GUT!!! Stats do help, same goes with streaks, but the bottom line is go with the gut.

With that being said:

SD @ KC: The odds came late, and I'm thinking of riding the Cheifs on the money-line. I may stick to the original take in the first Insanity Report, and take KC as a good value bet at +180. San Diego still has the worst run defense in the league and Larry Johnson has a big game or 2 left in the tank. Point spread wise, just like 8 points was too much to give the Cowboys on the road at KC 2 weeks back, 5 points is too much to give the Lack-of-Charge-ers at KC. There is something to be said for taking care of the ball, and that's what KC does.

And one thing is not known, how a team that loses on a Monday nighter responds the following Sun with a short practice week? Anyone? Well, I say it doesn't bode well for SD.

IND @ STL: Indy covers. STL has no heart. Bob Sanders may return for the Colts this week, he's listed as questionable.

CHI @ CIN: Tough spread. The Money line is not out yet, which may lead to a pick-em. Cin is scrappy but unpredictable and I have no take on the Bears yet. None. Cutler signed his 2 year extension at 15 mill per? Ouch, talk about confidence in medicrity.

GB @ CLEV: Doesn't seem like such a gimme game for GB, but they should cover. If it's bet, then the bettor will be sweating until the last whistle. The reason is that I agree with Bill Simmons, in that Derick Anderson can win ugly, and this week may seem like one of those weeks. If the under-rated defense of GB is ever gonna show up on the perverbial radar, it better be this week.

MINN @ PITT: JDawg likes Pitt. I might too. Favra is en fuego, there's no doubt, but it was around this time last year with the Jets that he strted to come down to earth. But the Vikes are a better team than the Jets.....why? one word: AP!!!! But back to Favra's streak, he had a killer last second comeback at home v. San Fran and then followed that the next week v. Green Bay. He gets a week off with the Lions game and then barely gets by the Ravens. 2 teams playing each other that didn't cover last week. PITT is 1-5 ATS? I honestly have nothing, what do you guys think?

NE @ TB: In England!!!! This gimme game turns into a maybe game because the game is in OLD England rather then NEW England. The spread is rising at NE -15. Right now I still take NE -15. They did it last week vs. a hapless TENN team that has some talent, and they play a hapless team in TB that has no talent. I think the roll we were waiting for the Pats to go one, is happening now.

SF @ HOU: I'm rethinking my original hunch of HOU goin on a bit of a run these next 2 weeks. SF is coming off a bye week and +150 is a not bad value bet. That pretty much f's up my early week 6-pt teaser.

Anyways, I gotta get back to work, more to come,
adolph out.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Bill Simmons - NFL Week #7 Lines

Take a listen to Bill Simmons predict the Week 7 NFL lines and his takes on the games.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Let's get this party started!

We have all talked about creating a website/blog about sports & gambling for a while now, so I'm hoping this might be the start of something cool we can play around with. No real rules here, just BRING IT!

Looking forward to creating some weekly columns such as Adolph's Insanity Report, J-Dawg's locks of the week, money management tips from D-Money, or other random fun.

So let's get things started here, and who knows maybe this will get big!

D$ Out!

A little Gus Johnson to get us fired up....

... NFL Week #1 - Stokely catch versus Cincinnati. An instant classic.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OneiEg7rm20