Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #8

#1 Auburn, #2 Oregon, and #3 Boise State all took care of business this week and for the first time all month we won't see any changes atop the BCS Standing. 

Two minor surprises from Saturday action had #14 Nebraska take down #6 Missouri.and #5 Michigan State getting beat down by #18 Iowa.

Now it is time for the professionals to step on the field of play for an interesting week of action.  Lots changes at the QB position.  Romo (right) is out probably for the season, in comes Jon Kitna for the cowboys.  (side note: raise your hand if you knew Kitna was still in the league.... that's what I thought, hardly anyone.)

Matthew Stafford is back for the Lions, Vince Young should start for the Titans,  Troy Smith is starting for the 49ers, and old man Favre is scheduled to try out the ankle for the Vikings.

Here are the best bets heading into kickoff:

Bills @ Chiefs (-7)
As written earlier this week, we like the Chiefs to come out and be able to run the ball in the 2nd half and take control of this game.  The line has moved from -8 to -7 in our favour as people are believing the Bills are not as bad after a close loss to the Ravens.  Guess what, the Bills are 0-6!  They are scrappy, but they have no talent and can't win here.  Riding the favourite, take the Chiefs.   (Side Note:  Gus Johnson will be calling this game.)

Redskins @ Lions (-3)
Been reading this week that the line makers have set the line like this to get the public to back the Redskins.  As mentioned in our write up earlier this week, the Lions should be the fresher and healthier team in this contest and getting Stafford back can only help.  Take the home team and ride Detriot.

Panthers @ Rams (-3)
No Deangelo Williams for this game, means one less weapon for the Kitties to throw at the Rams.  This line is surprising me as the Panthers are not a good football team and are even worse when they go on the the road.  Rams are a strong play this week.

Dolphins (+1) @ Bengals
Cincinnati is coming off a bye, but just can't trust them with Carson Palmer at QB.  He has been great at padding his stats during 'junk' time, but when the game is on the line he has thown key interceptions and turned the ball over.  The Dolphins are 3-0 on the road and we like them to become 4-0.  Riding the fish here.

Packers @ Jets (-6)
The Packers are still pretty injured at the moment and are in a tough spot with the Jets fresh off a bye and healthy.  The Packers can't run the ball and will have a tough time throwing against a great secondary for the Jets.  The Jets will be able to the run the ball and wear down the Packers and by the fourth quarter should be able to establish dominance and put away the Pack. 

Other leanings this week....

• Steelers (+1) over Saints.  The Saints just lost to the Browns, a team that the Stealers beat by 20 two weeks ago.  Until the Saints get a running game, I can't trust them to beat a good team like the Steelers.
• Patriots (-5) over Vikings.  Can't see a banged up Favre leading this team to a victory here.

Good Luck in Week #8.
D$ Out.

NBA Season Begins Tonight

Tip off to the 2010-11 NBA Season is underway - hard to believe the regular season begins tonight as it feels like the finals just ended the other day. The season starts with a marquee matchup between the Celtics and the Heat.  Later on we see two other games with the Trail Blazers vs the Suns and the Lakers taking on the Rockets. 

As reported on ESPN, Lebron James better watch out as a Cleveland radio show has hired a witch doctor to put a curse on James.  No sour grapes from the Cavs fans at all eh?http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/truehoop/miamiheat/news/story?id=5730079

 Season win total bets are closed now, but it will be interesting to see if the Heat live up to all the hype and if the Lakers can repeat with 5-2 odds.

An early look at the NFL Week #8 games worth a best bet:

Panthers @ Rams (-3)
St. Louis has been under-rated all year.  This team almost pulled off a road upset against Tampa last week - leading for most of the game and ended up covering.  They get a fabulous matchup this week with the Kitties coming to town.  The Panthers barely beat a terrible 49ers squad at home.  With Steven Jackson expected to play this week this line should have been higher and we like Sam Bradford and his boys to win big this week.   Kitties 9  Rams 24

Bills @ Chiefs (-8)
At first glance this might be an opportunity to take the points and fad the favourite here, but the Bills this past week were a flukey cover against Baltimore.  The Ravens just came off a loss and were not 'up' for playing the worst team in the NFL.  The Chiefs won against Jacksonville and should have no problem beating the Bills here with a solid run game.  I see lots of points getting scored,  Bills 24, Chiefs 34

Redskins @ Lions (-3)
The Lions have covered nearly all their games this year.  Fresh off a bye, with their starting QB Stafford back in the lineup and more rest for Javid Best and Calvin Johnson to heal minor injuries, this team is prime to give a tired Redskins squad a hard time this week.  The Skins were extremely lucky to win against a turnover prone Bears squad.  Like the Lions to get win #2 this week.  Redskins 17  Lions 34

Othere early leans....

• Although they can't win at home, the Dolphins look interesting as dogs to against an over-rated Bengals team.
• The Broncos will be hungry to get their manhood back against the 49ers who are staring their backup QB.

With the world series starting tomorrow we are in gambling heaven.   NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB, and NCAA football all happening right now.  Enjoy!

D$ Out.

NFL Week #7 And Another #1 Falls in NCAA

Another Week of NCAA Football, and another #1 on the road falls.  Unbelievable!  This time Oklahoma gets beat by Missouri and it is party time in Columbia!

The BCS is wide open this year and the losses of the big name schools keep the door open for Boise State to make a case to be including in the BCS championship if they keep winning games.

Next #1 looks to be Oregon.  Let's see if they can last longer than a week at the top.

Now it is NFL kickoff time and here are the 5 best bets for Week #7:

Jacksonville @ Kansas City (-9.0)
As stated earlier this week, we really like the Chiefs here. Gotta like KC when Jacksonville is starting their 3rd string QB with Garrad out with an injury.

Cincinnati @ Atlanta (-3.5)
Another game we previewed earlier this week. The dirty birds are solid at home and will be hungry to get back on track after laying an egg last week. Carson Palmer is not a good QB anymore which makes us like this even more.

Cleveland (+13.5) @ New Orleans
Seriously think Cleveland could surprise New Orleans for an outright upset here. Take the points as don't think the Saints can cover 2 TDs here.

Washington (+3.0) @ Chicago
The bears O-line is terrible and can't keep Jay Culter upright. The Redskins have their flaws, but if McNabb doesn't turn the ball over too much here this should be a defensive struggle and like getting the points here. Redskins 20, Bears 17

Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Miami
The fish are 0-2 at home this year and don't like their chances against Big Ben and the Steelers. The Steelers D will allow Field Goals but don't see Miami being able to score too many TD here. Steelers 23 Fish 16

Other leanings this week...
Eagles +3 over Titans
Baltimore -14 over Bills
Rams +3 over Bucs
Patriots +3 over Chargers
Raiders +7.5 over Broncos

Good luck this week and lets cash some tickets!
D$

Yankess vs Phillies in the World Series... Not So Fast!!

MLB Roundup:  The Yankees starting pitching is being exposed and they will face elimination on Wednesday afternoon in Game #5.  At the start of the series there were some serious prop bets having the Phillies re-matching against the Yankees in the Series this year, but the smarter money may have been on the opposite futures bet with the Giants and Rangers clearly in the driver seat.  The Phillies still have a decent shot at making that series go seven, but I will be surprised if the Rangers don't wrap this series in 6 games at home with Cliff Lee on the mound. 

NFL Early Looks:  Lots of 3 point spreads for Week #7, we like a few of them already and couple others.

Jacksonville @ Kansas City (-4.5)
The Chiefs are under-rated and will be hungry after a loss against the Texans.  They had a good chance to win against some solid teams the past two weeks and now are moving into their softer part of their schedule and could easily go on a 4-1 run in their next five games.  (Bills, Raiders, & Arizona all coming up afterwards)  The Chiefs can run the ball and play decent defense and appear to be a team who should beat the mediocre squads but will have trouble beating the elite teams.  Watch the injury reports for this one and see where the spread ends up later this week.

Cincinnati @ Atlanta (-3.5)
The Bengals are not that good as Carson Palmer is not an elite QB anymore.  Atlanta holds a solid home record over the past two seasons of 11-3 when Matt Ryan is the QB.  I see this trend continuing and like the dirty birds to bounce back after a lackluster effort against the Eagles.

Cleveland (+13.5) @ New Orleans
Cleveland should have covered against the Steelers last week if not for junk touchdown late in their game.  New Orleans isn't playing as well as the Steelers, and having to cover this many points might be a struggle against the Browns. and a surprising poise Colt McCoy.

Buffalo @ Baltimore (-13)
The Bills are the worst team in the league and going on the road to face a Ravens D - that could cover this spread on their own - is not looking promising.  Definitely like Baltimore in a Survivor pool, teaser and ATS this week.  Dare I say... an easy cover.

More to come.  D$

NFL Week #6 Recap

Some quick takes from this past week of pro football action:

1) Best bets were 2-3. this week.  Gambling Rule #14:  No excuses - play like a champ, BUT losing by 0.5 points on two separate games sure hurts.  Easily could have been a nice profitable 4-1 week, but I guess we could have been 1-4 if Big Ben doesn't throw a late TD to cover the 14 against the Browns. 

2) Houston's defense is terrible.  They are only going to be able to win games by outscoring their opponents (see Exhibit A : vs Redskins during Week #2 or Exhibit B : vs KC in Week #6 as classic examples).  Don't think we can really trust them ATS for the rest of the season, but if the Texans are playing mediocre defenses we will have a leaning towards the OVER.

3) KC is good this year.  More to come tomorrow about this topic.

4) Detriot is 5-1 against the spread this year, with a 1-5 SU record.  They will be getting healthy after a bye and already looking at them for Week #8 in two weeks against the Redskins - especially if the Redskins win next week.

Best Bets - NFL Week 6

There certainly is a lot of jumping around happening in Wisconsin with the Badgers pulling the upset over #1 Ohio State.  Second week in a row we see the #1 team lose.  Looks like the Ducks from Oregon will take over the top spot and perhaps Boise State going to be #2.  Look out for Oklahoma though, but they first got a big matchup against Missouri next week - if they get through that they got a shot at BCS glory.  

Now it's time for kickoff to NFL Week #6.  The leaders of all the betting contests have been riding the underdogs hard this season.  Not much strategy to picking 14 underdogs but it seems to be working well.  Does the trend continue?  Lets see our 5 best bets:

1) Pittsburgh -14 vs Cleveland.   Hard to back a team that is starting a third round rookie QB (McCoy) in his first ever game in the NFL againist the #1 defense in the league.  (There could be a lot of moments like this picture on the right.) As long as Big Ben plays a solid game this should be a beat down. 

2) Atlanta +2.5 @ Philly.  Atlanta has a great running game which should be able to control the time of possession here and wear down an average Eagles defense. The Eagles will have trouble with pass pretection as their LT Jason Peters is out with injury and his replacement was a big reason the 49ers were able to crawl back in the 2nd half last week and make it close game. The dirty birds might be the better side here so like the fact we are getting points.

3) Houston -4.5 vs Kansas City.  Mostly just following CrazyDavo's Constanza theory here.  Kansas City is in a tough spot and Houston appears to be a zig - zag team who should be zigging with a healthier line up at home.  Kansas City QB doesn't have ability or the receivers to take advantage of the Texans weakness which is their secondary.  KC is still in good shape and like them with the upcoming schedule for future weeks.

4) Miami +3.5 vs Green Bay.  Way too many injuries for the Packers to overcome here especially playing a hungry team coming off the bye.  The Packers are too one demensional with no running game and have to rely heavily on Rodgers - Miami will be up to the challenge.

5)  Denver +3.5 vs NY Jets.  This is basically a bad spot for the Jets.  They have played 3 straight 'big' games and now have to travel across the country on a short week to play a team who also seems to zig-zag in the Broncos.  The Bronc catch a break with Revis and Pace not 100% and Kyle Orton is playing well.

If I was looking to add some games to make this a teaser, liking STL +15, DET +16, BAL +10, TB +11, and CHI -1 to the mix for an interesting 10 gamer.

Good Luck and lets win some money!

Saturday Morning News and Notes

NCAA College Basketball:  Hummel retears ACL
Robbie Hummel of Purdue re-tears his ACL on Saturday morning - out for the season.  Check out the story on ESPN.  http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=5691032


NFL:  Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest Week #6 Now Posted
Be sure to check out what the Vegas sharps are picking in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest before laying down your cheese this week.  Check out the details here:  http://www.lvhilton.com/Supercontest

NFL: Starting QBs for Week #6
Teams with QB issues due to injuries have listed their starters for Week #6...

Browns :  Colt McCoy

Eagles : Kevin Kolb

Raiders : Jason Cambell
Packers : Aaron Rodgers (probable)
(Source  ESPN)

Saturday Night Jump Around in Wisconsin

Saturday College Football has kicked off for another week. Canadians miss out on being able to watch one of the best college traditions in sports during the #1 OSU vs #18 Wisconsin Badgers. The 4th Quarter Jump Around. (As game is on ESPNU 7:00pm EST.)

Here's hoping that the Badgers can hang tough vs mighty #1 and then we can start cheering hard for the upset. (Badgers are listed as a 4.5 point underdawg at the moment.)

If you have no idea what the jump around is - then crawl out from under your rock and check out this video. Camp Randall goes crazy with the stadium jumping around to 'House of Pain'.  The Fans, Cheerleaders, Mascots, the band, and usually even the opponent join in on the fun. Crazy good atmosphee and definitely something I think may need to be added to my bucket list. Enjoy!

DOES THE UNDERDOG PREVAIL FOR YET ANOTHER WEEK??

Alrighty then, well….lets see if the run of the underdog will hold up again this week. Something's gotta give, cuz there are some rough and tumble spreads this week.

Are there ever any easy spreads any week???? As Herm Edwards said one time, "We gamble to win the bet!!!........Hellllloooooo!?!?!?!? Uhh, uhhmm uhhhh ahhhh this whole conversation bothers me!!" There's never any easy bets, we're gambling here folks!!! To the degenerate-mobile!

STL +8.5 vs. SD
San Diego's special teams are atrocious, but St. Louis is going through the 1988 Dallas Cowboy right of passage where they are in a rebuilding phase where they will get the tar beat out of them no matter how good they are or how much talent/potential they have.  But this is still a collision of 2 ugly's, and 8.5 is too much for either team to win by. Rams cover.

HOU -4.5 vs. KC
Every bone in my body tells me to bet KC….hard!!!! But this hunch is superseded by the borderline Law of Costanza that applies to the Houston Texans and my betting on them. First off, I've laid off betting on Texans games since Week 1, but regardless of whether I bet for or against or feel that they will or won't cover, the Texans do the exact opposite. So since I think KC will win this game, and that Houston will tank, the Law of Costanza states that the opposite will happen. Unfortunately Houston covers. Cohhhh-stan-zaahh!!!

BAL +3 @ NE
I'm not a real big fan of Baltimore, but I respect these old dogs. Plus they've had a harder schedule then the Pats and the Pats are reeling from their roster changes from trading Maroney to trading Moss the Baby. When the Big Hoodie is revamping his master plan mid-season, then the Pats are in a world of hurt.

TB +4.5 vs. Nawlins
As much respect I have for The Easy Bree-zy, and that they can't tank 2 straight games, the notion of a Super Bowl Hangover supersedes the East Bree-zy respeck. Plus, this has to be the coming out party for
under-rated QB, Josh Freeman and the under-valued Bucs.

PHI -3 vs. ATL
This can go either way. And the Vick Principle still rings true even if he doesn't play. And that is, stay away. I'm going to give the Eagles one more week to scout to see if I can get a hold of where they're coming from. The home field barrage of batteries and Micheal Irvin broken-neck-boo's should reign supreme over the inconsistent Yippe Ki-yay Mr. Falcons!!

DET +10 @ NYG
LOCK LOCK LOCK of the week!!!!!!!!!!!! Who cares about the new Meadowlands and the G-Men being at home. After watching full games of the Lions, the headlines read: "Lions actually pretty good". Their D-Line is sick, maybe even sicker then the G-Men's media-hyped D-Line and QB Shaun Hill actually doesn't suck. Up in the air whether Detroit will win this game, but they'll keep it close either way, and 10 points is a rare gift from the handicappers. I even bet a rare 2 units on the Lions for this one.

CLE +13.5 @ PIT
Cleveland not as shitty as people think. Actually, they are pretty well coached. Not nearly as well coached as the Steel Curtain. But this is a divisional game and 2 touch downs is a bit too much still. But either way, I'm staying away from this game. The return of Big Ben Rothless-corner-a-co-ed-er is too much of an unpredictable variable. He can either kill it on Sunday or flop. Stayin' away.

CHI -6.5 vs. SEA
Seattle is downright atrocious on the road. Consider this the number 2 gift from the handicappers this week.

DEN +3 vs. NYJ
NYJ are a fraud. Denver is rebuilding. And the only constant is the Mile High. Whether it's the altitude, no matter how shitty a Bronco's may be, the Mile High advantage should prevail or the inconsistent Jets and Fraudchise.

OAK +6.5 vs. SF
Gift #3 from the handicappers. Alex Smith is so bad at QB, that he is venturing into JaFarcus Russell territory!!!!!!!!! And Oakland W's have been due to capitalizing off takeaways which JaAlex Smith will giveth to the Raiders!!!

MIN -1.5 vs. DAL
2 desperate OVER-VALUED teams. Going with the home team, just cuz.

IND -3 @ WAS
Although Peyton covered last week (barely) vs. KC, he won't have 2 straight sub-par weeks in a row, and Washington can pull 2 W's outta their bum in consecutive weeks

TEN -3 @ JAX
Chris Johnson bust-out game the Monday Nighter!!!
PS. This Saturday…..Doc Halladay vs. Lincicum in Game of the NLCS. How is the run total not set at 0.5!?!?!? I'm taking under 6.0 runs this Saturday.

CrazyDavo Out!!!

Another Week... Another Reporter Scandel

Jets reporters are back in the news again.  Website Deadspin posted a story which included several voicemails allegedly sent by Brett Favre to Jenn Sterger (pictured below), who worked for the Jets while Favre was with the team

Sterger now is a TV personality for the Versus network and former Playboy Playmate.  Favre tried not to let all the extra attention affect his play, but he stepped up at the end of the Monday Night game to throw a pick six to seal the deal for the 1-3 Vikings.  Killing a cover the team was on pace for - a trend seen a few times during Week #5.  (See Cinn vs TB or KC vs IND.)

The 2010 season has been all about the underdawgs.  During Week #5, the afternoon games saw the dawgs not only cover, but win outright - CrazyDavo made some serious cheese off of that play.  NFL Dawgs have been 29-15 ATS the past three weeks.  Truly Amazing.

Will the trend continue.... lets have an early look at some key matchups heading into Week #6:

San Diego @ St. Louis (+8.5)
The Rams were hanging with the Lions for the first half, but with receiver Mark Clayton going down, Bradford looked a bit lost in the passing game.  The Rams will game plan a little better and be ready to rebound at home after a blowout loss.
San Diego just came off a loss to the Raiders and is now on the road favoured by more than a touchdown.  From our blog entries from Week #5, we like the trend of the dawg getting lots of points when playing a team who just lost.  Lots of points expected here.  Bolts 34, Rams 28

Kansas City @ Houston (-4.5)
Lots of money being won with the Chiefs this season as they have looked good against some respectable teams.  Gotta feel that this team might have thrown a lot into their matchup against the Colts in Week #5 and have a chance to come out a little flat here against the Texans.  Meanwhile the Texans will be looking to continue their zig-zap trend and rebound off a beat down by the Giants.  The Texans secondary is terrible, but don't think the Chiefs Matt Cassel has the arm or the receivers to exploit it.  (See exhibit A : Dwayne Bowe)  Houston gets back Jacoby Jones and Andre Johnson's ankle will be a week more rested and should have a big day here.  Liking the Texans to win big to keep pace in the competitive AFC South.  Texans 30, Chiefs 13.

Detriot +10 @ NY Giants
Pretty scary to pick either team right now.  The Lions have been covering their games, but might be missing Megatron which affects their passing game.  Seeing this game a pass at the moment pending further review.

Cleveland @ Pittburgh (-14)
Rookie QB Colt McCoy may get the start here because of injuries - gotta like the Steelers here to win big as Big Ben is back in the lineup at home coming off a bye.  Pittsburgh 38, Cleveland 3.

Other leanings so far this week....
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (+4.5)  - Gonna watch the line this week to see which way this goes as liking the Bucs +6 or +7 as the underdawg here.  Saints are not playing well at the moment.
Oakland (+6.5) @ San Francisco  -  a team that is 0-5 should not be favoured by a touchdown.
Atlanta (+1.0) @ Philly - the dirty birds seem to be underrated this season and quietly are now 4-1.

NFL Pre-game Kickoff - Week #5

Another crazy week of college football today with #1 Alabama getting taken down by South Carolina.  Love it!  Now time to move onto the NFL and getting ready for a big Sunday.

A few updates to report as Jay Culter now has been listed as doubtful and Todd Collins (half brother of J-Dawg's favourite drink, Tom Collins) will be starting QB for the Bears.  With this unexpected turn, this is no longer a best bet this week.  I still like the Bears defense to step up and win this for them, but not enough to lock this down.  Instead....

Atlanta -3 @ Cleveland
The more I look at this game, the more I like the dirty birds to cover.  With Delhome starting and Cleveland's primary offense, Peyton Hillis, banged up this should be good chance for the Falcons to get a road win here.   ATL 31, Cleveland 13

Philladelphia @ San Francisco (-3)
Keven Kolb at QB this week for the eagles, and the Niners are now super desparate for a win here.  They should come out strong during the Sunday Night game and take down the Eagles here.  49ers 23, Eagles 17

Vegas sharps have some love for Green Bay (-3) to cover over Washington, and Liking Arizona (+7) over New Orleans.  Thinking is New Orleans hasn't been anyone by 7 this year and Arizona plays well at home and will be motivated after getting knocked out of the playoffs last year by New Orleans.

Good Luck on Sunday.
D$ Out.

Behind the bets podcast - Oct 6th

Great gambling podcast today on behind the bets with ESPN's Chad Millman. Interviewing Vegas wise guy Bryan Leonard - definitely worth a listen.
http://search.espn.go.com/chad-millman/audio/7

Dogs Rule - NFL Week #3 & #4

NFL Week #3 and #4 were all about the dogs. Week #3 dogs were 11-5 ATS and the trend continued in Week #4 as dogs were 9-5. D$ has been leaning on the favs a bit too much leading to less than desirable results. Let's see if we get this straightened out heading into Week #5.

 

Gambling lesson learned from Week #4:
Teams coming off a straight-up loss who are being favoured by more than 14 points rarely cover.   (Especially if the dog is coming off a loss.)   Classic examples of this theory can be seen this past week with Green Bay +14.5 vs Lions and the Saints +14.5 vs Panthers.  In Week #3 it was the Bills being 15 point dogs to the Patriots.  The theory behind this play is that the favoured team is not playing that well at the moment, which is why they lost, and asking them to lay an enormous amount of points may be asking too much for them.

 

Looks like we have a very tough slate of games this week. New format has D$ picking his 5 best bets each week. The idea is similar to the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest which Bill Simmons mentions regularly in his podcast. Definitely worthy of checking out on Saturday morning if you are struggling with your picks. http://www.lvhilton.com/Supercontest

 

St. Louis (+3) @ Lions  - Total 42
Sam Bradford appears to be the real deal in his first month in the NFL as he has helped the Rams become respectable and already double their win total from last year. Last week they took the Seahawks to the woodshed and beat them - nothing flukey here folks. The RAM defense is not terrible now - and don't laugh - but they have an outside shot of winning the NFC West with a .500 record. The Lions play hard every game and I would like to back them here, but they don't deserve to be laying points to anyone until they have won a game or two. With Stafford out, the Rams got quite a bit of momentum, and I'll take the points in what should be a high scoring (read: OVER) affair. Rams 31, LIONS 28.

 

Chicago (-3) @ Carolina
Jay Culter's first half in the Monday night game exposed some major issues withe Bears offensive line who played terribly.  Teams with a good pass rush will cause Culter to have to reach for the Advil bottle on Monday morning - which is why the motivated Giants won that game.   The Kitties, simply don't have any pass rush and this means a motivated Culter (he is scheduled to start), will have more time to find his receivers.  We don't see the Kitties getting up for this game as they put everything into their big game the previous week against the Saints and came up short.  This line would have been Bears by 4 or 6 a week before and I like them to keep Carolina winless in 2010.   Bears 24,  Kitties 13

 

NY Giants @ Houston (-3)
The Giants will get some love after their impressive Sunday night Culter beat down but the fact remains this team has some significant flaws.  Vegas is saying these two teams are even with the Texans only being favoured by 3, which doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense.  The Texans will get back Defensive Rookie of the Year LB Cushing after serving his suspension for taking performance enhancing drugs.  He will be extremely motivated to stop the Giants strength which is their run game.  With the Giants being unable to run Mario Williams will be in Eli's face like he was against his brother Peyton in Week #1.   Giants 16 ,  Houston 31

 

New Orleans (-6.5) @ Arizona
This matchup is too hard to pass up if you get the right side of the spread here.  If you can get 6.5 I like the Saints who will have a QB mismatch as Arizona is now turning to undrafted rookie QB Max Hull to lead them into this game.  Arizona is lucky to be 2 and 2 and we'll see a motivated Saints squad after two less than stellar performances at home.  Saints 23,  Arizona 10

 

Last game still up in the air at the moment.....

• Kinda like ATL -3 @ Cleveland, especially if Delhome is expected to be the starter.
• The 49ers have been my kriptonite, but look juicy as favourites -3 over the wounded and travelling Eagles.
• But I really like Denver to cover 7.5 vs the Ravens.   Ravens are set for a let down game and if you can get on the 'right side' of the line this could be a strong play for Denver squad that is getting lots of love from the vegas sharps at the moment.

 We'll have to examine this last game as we get closer to the weekend.

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #4

Recovering after a wacky college football Saturday. Crazy finish to the LSU and Tennessee game yesterday afternoon. Now it's time to focus energy on the NFL and try to bounce back after a sub-par Week #3.

Best Bets for Week #4:

ATL -6.5 vs SFO
This was the first game I really liked this week. After watching the 49ers burn my money last week, time to get on the winning side here! The dirty birds have been at home the past two seasons and the 49ers are simply just not as good as everyone thought they were. Here's hoping walterfootball.com is incorrect with their prediction for this week. We like ATL big. ATL 31, SFO 10.

NYJ -5.5 vs BUF
Buffalo has given up on Trent Edwards and waived their starting quarterback. Wow! No wonder the Bills are the worst team in football with terrible management as they couldn't even muster a draft pick for opening day QB. As long as the Jets don't have a mental let-down after beating NE and MIA they should win this one easily. Jet 24, Bills 9.

IND -8.0 vs JAX
Jacksonville looks really bad to start the season, and with all the weapons Indy has for Peyton looks like another tough week for the 25,000 fans who will be watching this home game. Historically the last 5 meetings have been close (within 7 pts), but Jax had better teams back then and not too afraid to lay eight here. Colts 35, Jax 13


Also have leanings towards:
Ten -6.5 over Den : Not sold that Denver is good and CJ should break one.
GB -14.0 over Det : Detriot is about to run into GB buzz saw here.
STL +2.0 over Sea : Seattle not a good road squad, STL riding momentum.

Good luck this week.