College Hoops Scouting Report #1 - Calling you out Roy!!!!!

Alright, so the betting profits have dwindled as of late. Some drastically unadvised bets were made, but some bets based on pre-season intel were made that were thrown back into my face. i.e. UNC and Michigan. This goes to show that the pre-season mags and web reports do help, but to get the straight ups on intel, one must head into the basement and check out some games.

Lets get to it. For us Canadians, we have to rely on online streaming to catch some games, but it was not that shabby with the 3 games on the screen at the same time. Talk about Tuesday night heaven tonight!!! These are more team recaps with some game recaps. Enjoy.

MICHIGAN 69 @ CLEMSON 61

MICHIGAN:
Michigan is one of those teams that all the previews pointed to them blowing this year. If you recall the prognostication blog of Syracuse easily covering over Michigan last week, Michigan lost their 2 ONLY scorers last year. The whole offense revolved around Manny Harris and Deshawn Sims. Now that those two left the program, the preview intel stated that the remaining players are tragic as far as taking the reins, and they're recruiting class are very low rated.

Well, from the half I saw of this game, their returning players are still pretty tragic. But the first-year players for the Wolverines are pretty good. This was displayed in Michigan's redshirt freshman, Jordan Morgan. He is a wide bodied 6-8 post who took over a portion of the game to get 4 easy buckets off garbage boards. I texted the Insanity Staff about this, but looking at the box score, this was a Morgan short-led flurry of 8 points, as it was the only 8 points he had for the whole night. But there are more teams that wish they got garbage hoops than those that actually get it, so this is a good sign for the Wolverines.

Michigan may surprise many people by stealing a few games in the Big Ten and perhaps finishing in the middle of the pack rather than the basement as many thought. They run an OK spread-out half court O, and we'll see if they can keep the disciplined shot selection that have helped them out so far this young season.

CLEMSON
Clemson have some solid returning talent, but there was little it-factor displayed from them in this game. They have a solid starting 5, but they just don't have the mojo despite the glue-type guy in SR. Guard, Demontez Stitt.

(14) GEORGETOWN 111 @ (8) MISSOURI 102

By far, the best game viewed so far this year. Some Madness involved with Georgetown executing a mini-comeback by chipping away in the last minute, down by 4 to tie the game at the buzzer. The comeback was sparked by some key mistakes by Mizzou as they held the 4 point lead in the last minute:

Down by four, G-Town were switching hoops to Mizzou's free throws as G-Town had to foul. Mizzou's Guard, Michael Dixon did fauz-pas #1 by fouling Georgetown with 14 seconds left, to stop the clock and allow Chris Wright to hit 2 free throws for the Hoyas. Mizzou's now back up 2 points. G-Town immediately fouled the Missou inbounds to stop the clock. Then as Mizzou only hit 1 of 2 throws to cut the lead to 3 points, rather then a 2-possesion 4 point lead, a Mizzou player performed faux pas #2: THE CARDINAL SIN of cardinal sins by saving the ball as it was going out of bounds UNDER HIS OWN HOOP!!!!! Georgetown's possession started with a missed 3 pointer, and as the rebound was bobbled by both sides, the ball was going out of bounds, when the Mizzou player committed his deadly sin. The ball obviously went into the hands of Georgetown's Jason Clark and he hit a wide open Chris Wright for the game tying 3 to send it into overtime!!!! Boom, I was texting the Insanity Report Staff immediately with a Madness-Alert!!!!!

OT was dominated by Georgetown as Mizzou's sail was deflated from the last minute choke job.

GEORGETOWN HOYAS
A definite All-Adolph Top 10 team!! They have adequate big men, who can jump up for some athletic O and D rebounds, but there is no wide bodies to command any low post presence. And if there is anything to display that Georgetown is guard orientated, just look at the box score from their 3 starting guards: Austin Freeman 31 pts, Jason Clark 26 pts and Chris Wright 21 pts! If I carry a couple of zero's, I do believe that is 78 of Georgetown's 111 points!!! Yamma hamma!!! And that's with the 3 of them going 12-26 from down town!!! Can you say Cait Haggarty/K-Smack Alert!?!?!?

A previous blog stated that Georgetown is making a complete 180 in style/philosophy by becoming a guard oriented team from their traditional Center/Low Post Identity of Ewing/Mourning/Mutombo/Hibbert/Monroe's Past. The Senior guard trio in Freeman, Wright and Clark are the real deal. They will be flat out assasin's from downtown and out on the break!!!!

This is contrary to teams who live and die by the sword of 3-point shots, like an over-rated Florida Gators. Those teams will shoot themselves outta games more than they shoot themselves into W's, but not the Trey-town Hoyas......all Austin Freeman does is hit treys!!!! Even during team slumps during his previous 3 years, the only thing that stopped Freeman from hittin 3's was an illness in mid-December last year that sidelined him for 3-4 weeks. Even on the rare night that Freeman is cold, odds are that Clark and Wright will pick up the slack.

How do you beat the Hoya's? Slow the effing game down and eat clock on your offensive possessions to take the ball out of The Hoya Assassins' hands. If this is done first of all, then second of all, that team will need the big men to command the slight weakness in the post that Georgetown has. Georgetown's big guys, however are a relative weakness compared to the huge guard strength they have in the 3 Trey-ateers; The Hoya posts are not as useless as a Tar Heel front court (stay tuned for that rant); They do get the necessary O and D boards to keep a possession going or start the break.

One game, I'm looking forward to seeing is Georgetown v. Marquette, as Marquette plays a methodical half-court style O, and will slow the game down to limit Georgetown's under-rated fast break lay-ups and stop-on-a-dime 3's. That game won't happen until Feb. 13th, so stay tuned for their next test v. Temple on Dec. 9th!!!

MISSOURI

Two words: SPEED KILLS!!!

Missouri gets out on the break and almost has no transition from the D-board to the blistering fast lay-up on the other end. It seems like there is no transition if you blink after the rebound, that is!!!! Their speed will kill many teams this year!!!

But by being a fast team, and utilizing that speed as a huge strength, it will expose Mizzouri relying on more instinct than what will be desired from Missouri Head Coach, Mike Anderson. That instinct killed Mizzou tonight with both faux pas' in the last 15 seconds.

If Mizzou can learn to play at different speeds and learn to change those gears at the right time of the game, they may compete towards the top of the Big 12, rather then having their own speed kill them late in a game like it did tonight.

NORTH CAROLINA 67 @ (21) ILLINOIS 79

No real news from this game. Illinois held a 12-15 point cushion the whole 2nd half.

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
No real news here either. Illinois have all 5 starters returning. 4 of those 5 are seniors.

They're best player in SR. PG Demetri McCamey can be their top scorer, but must be their top passer and hence he must be their leading assist player. This was his M.O last year, as he led the Sick Belly Buttons (Fighting Illini.....as in Ill Inn-ie's.....no? Mm-kay) in scoring at 15 ppg, and he led them in assists at a healthy 7 apg. But he shouldn't have been their top scorer. By McCamey taking both roles on, made him dribble waaaayy too much in the half-court. He'd over-dribble for close to the 5 second violation during so many possessions last year, that the oppsoing D could stand pat and cover passing lanes and set up good block-out positions off of McCamey misses.

McCamey is a talented All-Adolph Pre-Season Honorable Mention team member, but the Illini can't afford for McCamey to take on both scoring and dime roles like a black-hole player in a pick-up game. The Illini's big men in Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis are waaay too talented and dominating in the blocks to ignore. McCamey HAS to sacrifice J's for entry passes into the blocks. If this happens, then Illinois will be the Sweet 16 favorites many are picking them to be.

NORTH CAROLINA
(sigh)

(deep breath)...........(sigh).......(head shake)

No new news here either. If you had the misfortune of watching this game you'd see the same mess from last year.

UNC comes in with arguably the best recruiting class again this year, with arguably the best freshmen. Last year it was John Henson. This year it's Harrison Barnes. In watching my first UNC game this year, I was fooled by the previews and over-rated ranking of the Tar Heels, just as I was last year. Fool me once, shame on UNC. Fool me twice? Shame on me.

Shame on me?!?!?!?

Let's take a deeper look into UNC. Their whole team played last year with absolutely no basketball IQ WHATSOEVER!!!! They displayed zero transition defense. They couldn't execute a full court press if their lives depended on it. They're only rebounds were off big bounces or due to their McDonald All-American jumping ability, and not due to any toughness, desire or body positioning. Their shooting percentage (in all aspects from 2 pt, 3 pt, and free throws) and turnover stats rivaled that of a Dave Adolph stat sheet.....low, and very high!!!!

I talked to Insanity Report North Correspondant, Marc Paulsen, and he mentioned that last year's freshmen class-led Tar Heel's may have been a sour batch of recruits. I thought the same thing at times.

Now take a look at this year. The exact same weaknesses were exposed in tonight's game from last year. I mean, 7 of the 11 scholarship players were friggin' McDonald All-American's coming out of high school. That is, they have displayed talents at one point in time. But tonight, they could not display any of those talents due to their turning the ball over before they could develop any half-court rhythm. They went through the motions of trying a double team, but Illinois broke them as easily as a soggy saltine cracker in a bowl of soup!!!

Fool us twice? Not shame on us! Shame on you Roy!!! I hate to say this, but some Tar Heel Tough-Love must be shown here. You have 2 huge recruiting classes from the past 2 years. You have 7 McDonald's All-American's out of 11 players on your bench. Yes, the bulk of these players have not physically developed yet (John Henson), and all of your players (except for Tyler Zeller) have displayed toughness as strong as a wet spagetti-noodle. But it's your job to recognize the lack in the aforementioned qualities while you recruit these players, and it's your job to DEVELOP these players! They are indeed highly rated players, but they are still high school players. Motivate them enough to show some toughness, and gawd-damn-it, develop a basketball IQ above a grade 10 level out of your players!!!

Many coaches do more with less rated recruits year in and year out (i.e. Mark Few from Gonzaga). And I cringe to say this, but the few coaches who are blessed with getting top rated recruits year in and year out (.....(sigh).....Duke's Coach Krazak-zew-ski) develop their recruits.

Roy, step your coaching game up!!!! You're stuck with these players. You recruited them. Find a way!!!!

Yes, this is a frustrated CrazyDavo, so cue the frustrated quick exit ala an Arizona Cardinal QB, Derek Anderson post game interview.

"This is not funny!!! I pour my heart and soul every week to gloss the Tar Heels in many a blog!!!! I take this shitty UNC hoops serious!!!! I don't want to see them go out there in the hallowed Dean Dome and embarrass themsleves!!!! It's not funny, it's not funny........I'm Done!!!!!"

Frustrated CrazyDavo out!

NCAA BBALL - AP Top 25

Check out this week's NCAA Basketball Rankings now posted on ESPN.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

We get a feature matchup on Wednesday night with #6 Michigan State hosting #1 Duke.  (ESPN - 9:30pm EST)

Stay Disciplined my friends, stay disciplined.

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #12

Broncos, ready to admit hiring this guy was a mistake?

Alright, after a 2-1 Thanksgiving Thursday, looking to build on a decent start heading into the Sunday games.

Here are the two other best bets to round out our top 5:

Minnesota (+2) @ Washington
Were betting that a new coach in Minny will mean better results on the field - as it did for Dallas.  Washington is not a super steller team this year and the motivated Vikings should be able to handle a team with 3rd string running backs.  Vikings 24,  Washington 13

Side note:  Line move on this game has been interesting, went from Min (+2) to (-2.5) before kickoff.  Evidently other people are feeling the same as we are.


Tampa Bay (+7.5)  @ Baltimore
The Bucs have proven they are a solid team who can beat up on the mediocre squads, but haven't yet beaten a quality opponent yet.  Thinking they may lose this game, but not by more than 7 so take the points and ride Jaaaaash Freeman here baby.   Tampa 20  Baltimore 24


Other games you may want to consider adding or putting in a teaser:
Giants (-7.5) vs Jacksonville  - Giants are banged up but are better and should be able to beat the Jaquars.
Green Bay (+2) @ Atlanta - Should be a close game and we will learn a lot about both teams here.
Oakland (-3) vs Miami - Oakland should be a little better this week at home and don't trust Miami.

Good Luck in Week #12 and remember to stay DISCIPLINED!

D$ Out

Back at it.......some picks and pointers: KEEP THE GAMBLING "BEER GOGGLES" AT HOME!!!!!!!!

Gotta hit work soon so some quick pointers before we get to some juicy spreads, otherwise known as (shameless plugs) EASY COVERS!!!!

QUICK BETTING POINTERS!!!

Before we hit this, these points are those Captian Obvious takes. I say this to J-Dawg, D$ or Paulsen, and they slap me, saying, "No sh*# Adolph!!!!!!!". As obvious and cliche as these pointers are, they must be said, as these are in the back of all our betting minds. The kicker is to not let these be overtaken by betting for the sake of action. Leave that for the College Height Pub or the Lamplighter will you fellas!!!!!!

#1 Discipline!!!!
The reason for the recent hot streak for CrazyDavo's profitable college basketball picks has been choosing a spread where the team you pick will (shameless plug) EASILY COVER. For instance, picking a favorite that is given only single digits to cover where you are certain that the game will end up as a double digit cover. Let's keep it real here folks, we are gambling, so there still is a chance the handicappers may have the correct spread, but based on good intel and scouting, those juicy spreads will definitely be a lay-up bet with, odds are, an EASY COVER result!!!

#2 Stick to your hunches!!!!
I did the math on my last second bets and I am literally 90% wrong on those bets. Stick to your hunches, and bet them. Those last second bets for action will only give you ugly action. It's 100% "beer goggles" for gambling. When you wake up with that bet after the game is finished and you begin your recovery from the last second betting hangover, you will scream and run away due to that Ugly Betty-Bet!!!!!!! Run!!!! Forget your sketchers at the scene, and just ruuunnnnnnn Forest, run!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh and if you're thinking about making an opposite bet from your last second bet, by choosing the opposite?......well during those last second bets you've already thought of betting back and forth that there is no opposite-"Costanza bet" since you've gone back and forth many times, and your bets goes from a logical, rational bet to a 50-50 coin flip. That coin flip may be a rush due to the gamble-gamble action, but that rush will include seeing your balance erode like an Adolph-hairline!!!!

So off to the bets:

SYRACUSE -6.5 vs. MICHIGAN (Neutral court location)

In Syracuse's last game, Jim Boeheim called this team, his 'most-over-rated team' ever. Ouch Jim! Tell us how you really feal. They may be over-rated. They are 1-3 ATS, but they still have solid guards in Scopp Jardine, Brandon Triche and Kris Joseph. Their forwards are typical long-reached posts that can grab boards and take up space in the Boeheim 2-3 zone in Rick Jackson, and 5-star recruit, Fab Melo.

Michigan on the other hand, has NOOOOOOO-body!!!!!!! Over half their scoring came from departed guard and forward, Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims who have since either graduated or declared for the draft and.....didn't get drafted. Oops. Either way, the returning players for Michigan are the un-Fab 5!!! Coach, John Beilein did nothing to restock his roster and the returning players are very low-rated players!!! They're going to rely on players that scored from 4-6 points per game last year. These are players that accustomed their entire game on getting Harris and Sims the ball. And now their needed to make plays!?!?!? Won't happen.

Syracuse may be an under-rated team, but Michigan is a no-rated team and are destined for dead last in the Big Ten Conferance this year. Syracuse should get an EASY COVER tonight vs. Michigan.

PURDUE -13 vs. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (Neutral court location)

Purdue has lost Robbie Hummel due to his 2nd ACL tear. That is not news to anyone, and neither has Purdue's reaction by rolling over their pre-season opponents. E-Twaun Moore and JAJuan Johnson have responded by taking the Purdue-bull by the horns and picking their games up.

The Saluki's of So.Ill are eons away from their Sweet 16 days. They have a new roster again this year and Purdue should easily cover the 13 points over the Saluki squad of JUCO's

One feeler pick if you choose to play:

DETROIT -15 vs. ALBANY
Detroit has McDonald AllAmerican, Ray McCallum and a killer forward Eli Holman. Ray McCallum will be a semi-replacement surprise coming out of the Horizon Conferance ala Gordan Hayward from the Butler last year. The Horizon Conferance will be the the 7th major conferance this year due to the Butler's, Detroit's and Wright States. Detroit is a bit undervalued, as Albany is Albany and are coming off their worst season this decade. An Albany team coming off their worst season should not be a 15 point dog, but rather a 25 point dog. I like Detroit.

Good luck, stick to your hunches and stay disciplined. No "Gambling-beer goggles"!!!!!! Don't go Method Man, when (as he says) you can't get yourself a 10, the least you can do is get five 2's. No Method Man!!!! Not with the betting, sorry brah!!!

CrazyDavo out!!!!

American Thanksgiving Extravaganza

Happy Thanksgiving Pilgrims! 

Thursday brings the annual three game NFL Thursday drumstick.  Here's an early look at the matchups:





12:30pm EST CBS:
New England (-7) @ Detriot
Sometimes it is best not to over think these things.  The Patriots are playing much better the past few weeks and are 8-2 on the season.  The Lions are on the rise, but have some key injuries at the moment. (QB Stafford - shoulder, QB Hill - banged up arm, RB Best - turf toe, TE Tony Scheffler - Ribs, and DT Corey Williams - shoulder.)  The Lions are a 2-8 team who can 't run the ball and hasn't been quite the same since losing in OT to the Jets.  We know that the Lions have been great this year at the back door cover and will be "up" for this prime time game, but I like the Patriots to cover if the spread remains a touchdown or less and see this as good line value.  Patriots 38  Lions 30


4:15pm EST FOX:
New Orleans (-4) @ Dallas
The Saints seem to be waking up from their Super Bowl hangover and are playing better football the past few weeks and will continue to get healthier with Reggie Bush maybe back for this game and Pierre Thomas expected back in Week 13 or 14.  The Cowboys are responding positively to the Wade Philips firing and are playing better, but this week they will be playing against better competition which will be a true test.  Definitely the toughest of the three game to predict, but liking the Saints to keep it rolling against a team that features Jon Kitna as their starting QB and a below average pass defense.   Saints 35  Cowboys 24



8:00pm EST NFL Net.
Cincinnati @ NY Jets (-9)
Warning - this breakdown is a little longer than the others. 

The Jets have been very lucky the past 5 weeks, finding ugly ways to win and could easily be 5-5 right now instead of 8-2.  Winning two in OT and coming from behind late against Denver in Week #6 and Houston this past week.  But to their credit the Jets simply find way to win games and their two losses are against quality opponents. 
The Bengals are a mess.   Their secondary lost 4 players in the Bills game and was forced to sign CB Jonathan Wade on Monday who was cut by the Lions a couple week ago.  (Side note: You know your team is desparate when you are picking up discards from the Lions!)  The D-Line lost a starter to injured reserve and is banged up too.  Carson Palmer has been a terrible QB, throwing interceptions at the worst times and costing his team games.  It is no surpise the Bengals are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS.  This team continues to be overrated by Vegas perhaps this is because they have well known fantasy players like Owens and Ochocinco - who by the way will be defended by two top corners this week.  (Revis and Cromartie) 
Do you think the Bengals will play hard after an embarassing loss against the Bills, on the road, short week to prepare,  and cover 9 points or do the Jets get up early and roll to an easy victory?    We are guessing the latter and expect a repeat of last years playoffs.   Bengals 10  Jets 31

D$ Out

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #11

East and West finals in the CFL happening today, (like the Alouettes to cover the -10 by the way), but today is all about the real pros in the NFL.

After a surprisingly tough week last week, we come back strong with our best bets heading into kickoff.

5 Best Bets for NFL Week #11:

Ravens (-12) @ Panthers.
The Kitties are starting their third string QB (Brian St. Pierre - pictured to the right throwing one of his 8 career NFL passes) wasn't with the team in training camp and was pretty much out of the league 2 week ago as a stay at home dad.  The Kitties can hand the ball off to their stud running backs, oh wait, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are injured and out.  Look for Baltimore to get down to business here, get up big, and win this going away as the Kitties won't be able to move the ball on Offense.   Ravens 38  Panthers 3.

Bills (+6) @ Bengals
The Bengals really look like a team with a bunch of stars that are self distructing.  Carson Palmer looks terrible and Cedric Benson is injured but will play today.  The Bills have some confidence after winning their first game of the year last week and have played close games the past five weeks (all within 3 points).  The Bills have a chance to win this game and definitely have a shot at keeping it within 6 points - take the points here.   Bill 20  Bengals 21.

Raiders (+7.5) @ Steelers
The Steelers O-Line is really banged up with Max Starks out for the season and Chris Kemoeatu also not playing this week.  Add to the fact that the Steelers Defense got exposed against the Patriots and you gotta like the Raiders chances to possibly pull the outright upset in this game.  Raiders are coming off the bye and and have won three straight, if not for a shanked field goal earlier this season they would be 6-3 right now.   Take the points and take the dog here.   Raiders 23  Steelers 20.

Falcons @ Rams (+3)
The Rams are good at home (3-1) and the Falcons are average on the road (2-2).  It will be interesting to see if the dirty birds get up for this game - we are thinking the RAMs keep this close and pull off the upset to gain a share of the lead in the NFC West.   Falcons 20  Rams 24

Giants @ Eagles (-3)
Based on the Monday night performance alone, we like the Eagles at home against an over-rated Giants squad  Take the home team here.  Giants 20  Eagles 31.

Good Luck this week.  D$ Out

Football at Wrigley & Yankee Stadium

Yankee Stadium is ready for Notre Dame Football

With the weather getting ugly, time to sit back and watch some NCAA football this week as we feature games at two classic baseball stadiums.  First at 12:30pm PST Illinois will play Northwestern at Wrigley Field.  Later on at 4:00pm PST Army will take on Navy at Yankee Stadium,

The fun at Wrigley is being spoiled by safety concerns in the West end zone as the classic IVY walls are too close to the field of play causing the NCAA to make the decision to play the game so that offenses for both teams will move in one direction only.  (In the interest of player safety.)

As we head to kickoff we'll see about recommending some best bets.

CrazyDavo is continuing his strong start to the season with another winning day of College Bball picks yesterday.  I'm sure he is scouring the Saturday card for his value picks of the day.

We are truly in gambling heaven at the moment folks on Saturday we got NCAA BBall, some pigskin action, NBA, and even a little NHL hockey on the card. 

After going on a 18 game winning streak with hockey picks, D$ is looking to rebound after his first loss on Friday night with some money-line winners for Saturday night.  Have strong leanings towards :

Washington at home against the Flyers.  Washington is 10-1 at home this season and will be hungry after a let down road loss on Friday night in Atlanta.

Vancouver at home vs Chicago.  Vancouver is back home after a road trip and Chicago will be tired after getting beat down by Calgary on Friday.  pst... the Blackhawks record is 10-10-2 this year - not the same team as last year.  Vancouver would like nothing more than to get some revenge against the team who has knocked them out of the playoffs the past two years.

Panthers on road at Islanders.  Florida is a zig-zag team and gets a favourable matchup against the Islanders who have lost 11 straight.  They are due to zig and get a victory on Saturday night.

Lates.... D$ Out.

SEASON OPENING EASY COVERS FOR COLLEGE HOOPS

Ohhhhhhhhh man, this is long overdue. I gotta get my computer fixed to be able to blog regularly. But stay tuned please, as the All-Adolph Pre-Season picks will be coming soon. The Pre-Season Top 10 teams will not be different from most polls, but there will a solid list of under-rated teams that will surprise many people and win you boat loads of money if you choose to partake. ahem......Florida State!

But now, lets get to the business at hand. CrazyDavo has gone off to a furious start to the college hoops betting season starting at 9-2. My apologies for not spreading the love, so no better time to start then now, so lets get to it:

KENTUCKY WILDCATS -6.5 @ PORTLAND PILOTS

Kentucky rolls into Portland's backyard in the Rose Garden tonight. This is a cushy spread to pounce on with the game being in Portland. Portland is no chump team. They finished 3rd in a tough Gonzaga-led West Coast Conference last year.

And Kentucky's record last year is meaningless towards this years prognostication, due to a complete overhaul of their line-up with the NBA-"gradumacated" John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins. So John Calipari has rolled in yet another line-up this year full of McDonald All-Americans who will more than likely be found academically ineligible after the season and Calipari will vacate more wins.

Regardless of Calipari's shady recruiting, his line-up is full of talent. They are not like last year's line-up. But they are led by all-world point guard, Brandon Knight who is lighting it up from 3 point land. They boast 3 McDonald All-Americans while Portland has last years leading 3 point shooter in Jarrod Stohl, but little depth.

Kentucky should cover easy on talent alone. Credit this game being in Portland's backyard for the cushy spread. Wildcats by 18.

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS -6 vs. MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS

North Carolina went through a hellish season last year, however picking it up late to salvage an NIT title game. As much of a moral victory the end of last season was, it was still a complete disappointment. UNC came into last season with the best recruiting class in the nation led by supposed one-and-done forward John Henson. He led a recruiting class that had little in terms of basketball IQ and little to none defensive ability.

Fast forward to this year. Coach, Roy Williams has assembled another highly rated recruiting class that seems to know how to get into a defensive stance and actually close-out. They are led by definite one-and-done forward in Harrison Barnes. He has amazed everyone this year with his play by dominating on the boards and being unstoppable on the blocks and wing.

The Tar Heels will cover the 6 points tonight on Harrison Barnes alone. With that being said, there is still talent in last year's class, and this year's sophomore class aren't burdened like last year to carry the load. John Henson, DOES have a season under his belt, so he will contribute.

The Gophers on the other hand are continuing their off-court shenanigans from last year. Head Coach, Tubby Smith assembles talented recruiting classes, but last year it seemed like all were suspended, arrested or both! They had one constant threat, and that was in all-hustle team point guard, Devoe Joseph, but alas he's been suspended for off-court issues. All that's left for the Gophers is a pretty big front court. But from watching them last year and in person this year as they played an exhibition game at UBC, the Gophers' front court players are indeed huge at 6-10 or over, but quite soft. Gopher bigman Ralph Sampson III is leading the Gophers in scoring early on this season, but he'll be no match for UNC's bigmen led by Barnes, Henson and Junior crusher, Tyler Zeller.

Another cushy spread, UNC by 16.

GEORGETOWN HOYAS -8 vs. WOFFORD TERRIERS

Georgetown is a traditional big man factory. They had quite the big man last year in Greg Monroe, who parlayed his talent to becoming a Top 10 draft pick in this past NBA draft. Monroe was a great talent, but this year's Georgetown Hoya team will be better than last year's team as it will be an addition due to Monroe's subtraction.

Monroe was a huge talent, mainly off of the drive from the wing or elbow. But within Georgetown's Princeton offence, he was needed in the blocks and on the boards. As much as Monroe had great rebounding stats, he was as soft as his garbage rebounds. The conflict of Monroe's strengths from the wing/elbow vs. the role he was needed for in the blocks held Georgetown back last year, and they down right underachieved.

Cue in last year's Hoya strengths in senior guards, Chris Wright and Austin Freeman. Chris Wright is a solid point guard that takes care of the ball. And Austin Freeman can flat out score!!!! All he does is hit 3's from every spot, off the dribble, on the break or when the puppies are set off of a Chris Wright drive. What makes Austin dangerous is when any team clues in and tries to execute a game plan on his 3 point shooting, he's able to drive baseline for a lay-up or easy dish. Freeman can downright ball like he's K-Smack running a Salem pick-up game at lunch time!!!

Wright and Freeman are 2 of the 3 remaining Top 50 recruits left from their freshmen class (Kyle Singler from Duke being the third), with every other player having left for the pros. Both will come out from the shadows and dominate a Big East Conference where most of the top teams are rebuilding from graduations and NBA defections.

Wofford's strength is in their guards and the will be quite Woe-ful vs. Wright and Freeman tonight.

G-Town by 22.

That's it folks. Some easy spreads tonight.

There's one more interesting game in Long Beach State being a 10 point dog to a slightly over valued Clemson Tigers tonight. Long Beach matches up well to Clemson. Their pre-season tourney game on a neutral court in the Virgin Islands boasts a juicy pick as Clemson have been 1-9 ATS the past 2 years on neutral courts. Plus Long Beach played Clemson last year at this time and covered. The great match up between both team's posts/forwards is leaning more towards Long Beach based on toughness alone. I'd be more inclined to put money on Long Beach State at +10, but the game should be a Clemson victory at 6-7 points. That's too close of a margin when there's all of these cushy single game spreads for games where the winning margins are by 15 points or more.

Stay tuned for more picks and for the All-Adolph Insanity Report Pre-Season extravaganza!!!

CrazyDavo out!!

GUS JOHNSON: Haaaahhhhh haaaahhhhhhh!!!!!!!

Play-by-play announcer, Gus Johnson is the reason many people viewed
in on meaningless Houston/Jacksonville game last week. For many weeks
now on Bill Simmons' column, he's been setting his predicted spreads
on NFL games based on whether Gus Johnson is calling the game or not.
He calls it the "LAW OF GUS JOHNSON"....here's Bill's take:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmonsnfl2010/week10picks&sportCat=nfl

Bill says:
"The Law of Gus Johnson is sweeping the nation: He's called four
straight weeks of games that were genuinely exciting (Jets-Lions,
Bills-Chiefs, Bengals-Falcons, Chiefs-Texans) and this battle between
two David Lee teams (all offense, no defense) looks like No. 5.

I keep mentioning the Law of Gus without ever really defining it, so
let's do it right now. If Gus Johnson is calling an NFL game, the odds
quintuple that (A) the lead will change hands in the fourth quarter;
(B) someone will complete a long pass in a big moment that will make
Gus' voice hit an octave only dogs can hear; and (C) the game will go
into overtime or at least come damned close. It seems impossible that
the mere presence of an announcer would alter the course of the game,
but here's my theory: I think God sits in his Man Cave on Sundays and
says, "Which game is that Gus Johnson calling? I get a kick out of
that guy. I think I'll make his game exciting and see if he completely
loses his mind." "

Well said Sports Guy (that's Bill Simmons)!! It's almost cosmic when
many people flip towards the end of the game to check it out, and it
happens to be a Gus game, and it happens to be a last second miracle.
More than likely that may very well be the inner sport fan taking over
the sub-conscious telling the hand to flip to the Gus game, just in
case there's an incredible moment.

But, for most of us, particularly J-Dawg, the VegasWhale himself, D$
and Paulsen, we text each other back and forth every sunday telling
each other, "Gus is calling the so-n-so game!!!" Hearing Gus call a
game, even without the last second miracles, is entertaining enough.
He's the perfect announcer, in that his calling the game doesn't
overshadow the actual game, but compliments the actual game action on
the field. He's this generations Vin Skully. Legendary Brooklyn/LA
Dodger announcer Vin Skully is the last great solo play-by-play
announcers out there. There are 3-4 times a summer where a Dodgers
game will be on, and I'll leave it on just to hear Vin's call. Gus is
like that. I'll watch any game to hear Gus' call. Like I said, Gus is
this generations Vin Skully, but on speed and on the verge of a heart
attack!!!!! He's the best!!!

It seems that Gus has a knack to call the games that end in miracles.
Hence, Bill Simmons' LAW OF GUS JOHNSON!! But there are many other
last second buzzer beaters out there that have been memorable, but the
miracles called by Gus are memorable in their sports miracles alone,
but enhanced by Gus' call !!!!

Gus has so many great monikers. His laugh/cackle, "Haaaahhhhh,
haaaaahhhhhhh!!!!" always stands out. Also there is the "WHAAAATT
AAAAHH GAME" he yelps out every now and then. The best times are when
he's yelling and speechless at the same time. Check these clips out:

1. UCLA v. GONZAGA 2006

This is the one that gives me chills every single time! The Zags had a
17 point lead, that UCLA chipped away at.

This is a long clip. It's been mentioned in previous blogs, but it
gives me chills every time. The clip starts off with Gonzaga holding a
71-68 lead coming out of a timeout with 40.8 seconds left.

At the 45 second mark of the YouTube clip, there's the first glimpse
of Gus' karma seeping through the cracks, foreshadowing what will
ensue. UCLA rebounds an Adam Morrison miss, and Gus announces,
"....aand a foul!!!!"

Whoa man, getting chills already, now....at the 1:40 mark of the clip,
Gonzaga inbounds off a UCLA made free throw, and the mayhem insues.
Check it out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vt0VUSyVIr4&feature=related

UCLA steals the ball, and puts it back to steal the lead by one. Gus
is already going nuts!!! But it gets better, Gonzaga inbounds the ball
from the UCLA hoop and the Zaga point guard dribbles, and Gus calls:

"RALVIO...LAAAST CHANCE TO DANCE!!!!!!"

So UCLA steals the ball back, and Gus yells...(oh man, getting chills)

"WHAT A GAME.....WHAAAAAAT AAAAHHHHH GAME!!!!!" followed by his classic call,

" AFTER BEING DOWN 17, HEART.....BREAK CITY!!!!!!"

And then the moment is topped off with Color Commentator, Len Elmore
saying, "Holy Mackeral"....whew, gets me everytime!!!!!!! But wait it
gets better. There's more, right at the 4:18 mark of the clip, Gonzaga
goes for a buzzer beater, and Gus' blood pressure is that of a shaken
coke can ready to blow. Gus calls,

"BATISTA....WITH THE CAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA-TCH!!!!"

Now there are some top "What if's?" in our lives that we may rewind in
our heads from time to time. These "What if's?" are not like the
pathetic guy still living the dream from back in the day. They're not
like Uncle Rico from Napolean Dynamite throwing the football to the
video camera. These are non-loser, great "What if's?", and a Top 3
"What If?" is:

What if Batista's turnaround jumper went in?

What if? Well, Gus would have gone into a psycotic-induced coma for 3
months and J-Dawg, D$ and Adolph would be hittin J-Dawg's living room
floor with instant heart attacks!!! We watched the game live, and our
yells were louder than the TV, and thank god J-Dawg recorded the game,
because we watched Gus' call for hours and reminisced about that
effing moment!!!! Whoa man!!!

2. KANSAS STATE v. XAVIER 2010

This game is a classic back and forth 3 point shooting display. On
it's own merit, it can be argued that it's the best March Madness game
this decade. Argued! But with Gus' call it becomes the BEST MARCH
MADNESS THIS DECADE!

Check out the whole clip. Back and forth 3's....K-State's hittin and
answering, and Xavier's hittin and answering. The highlight of the
highlights is at the 1:20 mark of the clip, and Xavier ties the game
to bring it to the 2nd overtime, Gus is calling out that Xavier's
"Crawford has to hurry!!!!!".....so Crawford shoots the long 3, and
Gus' call of:

"AAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHAAHHHHHHH!?!?!?"

That call of "aaahhhhhhhh" is so great. Gus is both scared and pumped.
So good!!!!! Then Crawford hits the 3 to tie it and Gus, take it away:

"AAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH, HE TIED IT!!!!!"

Then in the 2nd overtime, Gus has a classic call, where it's both
funny and weird. K-State's Jacob Pullen hit's a 3, and Gus yells out:

"Pullen.....STRAIGHT AWWWAAAY......BAAAAHHH!!!......... HE'S IN SHAPE!!!"

He's in shape!?!?!? Jim Nantz wouldn't say that. If he did, it'd be
weird. When Gus says it, it's awesome. This begs the question: Why
isn't Gus calling the National Title games for March Madness!?!?!?!
Plus, his announcing crew is the 6th crew for CBS NFL broadcasts.
6th!?!?!?!? Brutal.

Here's the clip. By the way, in a recent interview on Bill Simmon's
podcast, Gus calls that K-State/Xavier game his "nirvana". Enjoy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVEIeD91vIc


3. BRANDON STOKLEY'S CATCH vs. CINCINNATI

Gus calls this moment, the reason why he was named as the voice of
MADDEN '11. We respectfully disagree Gus. You were named the voice of
Madden '11 cuz your the best in the biz!!!!

So, this is Tip Drill #1 with last week's Jacksonville Hail Mary
catch, being Tip Drill #2.

The best part of Stokley's catch and Gus' call is when Stokley is
running along the goal line to eat some clock and Gus has a
semi-awkward pause. Stokley's obviously going to score and Gus is
calling:

"WOOOOOOWWWWW....(awkward half second pause)......TOUCHDOWN,
DENVER....UNBELIEVABLE!!!!!!!"

Check it out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wj5HtJidMZ8

So good.

4. LAST WEEK'S JACKSONVILLE HAIL MARY CATCH

The reason for this blog. People are still talking about this call.

It's amazing how quickly the play transpires and how quickly Gus goes
from calling another failed Hail Mary to pure mayhem!!!! Jacksonville
QB, David Garrard throws the ball, and the Houston DB knocks it down,
which Gus plainly and almost dissapointingly says, "KNOOOCKED
DOWN!!!". But instantly, check that, not instantly, but rather the
call turns to mayhem faster than immediately, it's like there's
negative time from Gus calling, "Knooocked down" to Steve Tasker
yelling, "HE CAUGHT IT!!!!" and then Gus losing his shit. He follows
up with his best laugh-cackle ever, "HAAAAAHHHH HAAAAHHHH!!!!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHdPwYw3tNg

Classic Gus

Before we get to the next clip, not many people know this, but Gus
called the classic Princeton upset over UCLA in 1996. It's a young Gus
Johnson, and not really any classic lines in the clip, but it's the
beginning of Gus' karma on great games.

Here's the clip, if your interested:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCCAZvZAmZc

5. GONZAGA v. FLORIDA 1999

Florida misses their last second shot and Gonzaga wins the game. Gus
has a classic line:

"THE SLIPPER STIIIILLLL FITS!!!!!!!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdXeWvucvH8

Wait for it..........So good!!!

6. VANDERBILT v. NC STATE 2004

K this is a long clip. The great Gus moment starts about the 4:30 mark
of the clip. But Vandy is down by 10 with 2 minutes left and chips
away. Pretty big choke job by NC State.

But anyways, back to the 4:20 mark, Moore from Vandy hits a 3 to cut
NC's lead to one. Moore hits the 3 and Gus has an inhuman grunt/yell.
It's like he's yelling "ahhh" and "hits" at the same time. Then he
follows it with a classic "Holy Toledo!!!"

Right at the 6:13 mark of the clip, Gus is going to commercial and says:

"THE COMMODORES TAKE A 71-72 LEAD ON THIS FREAKY BUCKET"

Who says that?!?!?!? So good!!! You know who wouldn't day that? CBS
College Hoops lead play-by-play announcer, Jim Nantz!!!! Nantz has an
elitest, smug style of calling games. Why he calls the National Title
games is beyond me. He is a veteran broadcaster, and he has paid his
dues. And granted, he calls a clean game. But save your smugness where
it belongs Jim...calling the Masters on CBS. Leave the Madness to the
Warden of the Asylum, Gus Johnson!!!!!!!

The #1 "What if?" moment is, and always will be:

WHAT IF GORDAN HAYWARD MADE HIS LAST SECOND SHOT IN LAST YEARS
BUTLER/DUKE NATIONAL TITLE GAME?

Just imagine. Hayward hits that half-court buzzer beater. The underdog Hoosier-ville team in Butler, from Indianapolis, playing the National Title game at home, on a court just 17 miles from their campus vs. the evil-empire typical juggernaut in Duke. Imagine, Hayward hitting that buzzer beater!!!! That has to be the biggest What if!!!

Well check that:

What if Gordan Hayward made his last second shot in last years Butler/Duke National Title game? aaaaaaaand.....WHAT IF GUS JOHNSON WAS CALLING THAT GAME!!!!!

If that happened, then the world would explode, and there's be a new big bang in the universe, and time as we know it would be referred to as BGS (Before Gus' Call) and AGS (After Gus' Call).

I tell you what, with the LAW OF GUS JOHNSON in the universe as we know it.....if Gus was calling last year's National Title game between Butler and Duke, that shot would have gone in. It would have been all due to Gus Karma!!!!

CBS...straighten your lives together and make Gus your lead announcer!!!!!!

Side note: cool clip in the Vandy/NC State when they show the replay
of the backdoor and-1 bucket. Notice to the right of the screen,
Vandy's #35, Matt Freije jumping up in a crazed Mark "Mad Dog" Madsen
fashion after the hoop. That's March Madness folks!!! It's the best
reality TV you'll see. The host of these moments has to be, and due to
THE LAW OF GUS JOHNSON, will be Gus Johnson!!!

Here's the Vandy/NC State clip:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvtxqSpQ38U

Long live Gus. He's calling the Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
game this Sunday. Get your straight jackets out!!!!!!!

So good!!!!

CrazyDavo out!!!

Gus Johnson on Bill Simmons Podcast

Gus Johnson is on today's BS Report talking about the hail mary in the Houston @ Jacksonville game yesterday.  Worth a listen.

CLICK THIS LINK TO LISTEN TO GUS ON THE BS REPORT

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #10

Talk about easy covers, the Badgers of Wisconsin took Indiana to the wood shed and beat them down 83-20,  Bucky Badger was jumping around and doing tons of push ups at Camp Randall on Saturday.

San Diego State gave TCU a lot to think about before falling to the #3 team in the nation.  Same goes for Cal who gave the #1 Oregon fits before falling.  No major changes at the top so Boise State should remain at #4 and hoping for a slip up for the top 3.

College hoops season has tipped off this weekend and Crazydavo is off to hot start to the season, expect more content from him in the coming weeks.  It's the work he does before the season and in November that sets him up for a strong March Madness in 2011!


Now time for to talk Pro Pigskin as lots of great lines this week.  We did an early preview of games this week and here are our final 5 best bets.D$ is backing all of Bill Simmons Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest picks, but changes up one game as like an NFC West Battle a little better.

Game #1 : Tennessee (-1) @ Miami.   Gotta love the Titans as Miami is playing Pennington instead of Henne.  The Titans are off the bye week, pick up some guy name Randy Moss and are solid team.

Game #2 : Minnesota (-1) @ Chicago.  Previewed earlier this week - just can't see this Bears team going 6-3 and like the Vikings to try to get to .500 against the Packers next week.

Game #3 : Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-7).  Again previewed earlier this week.  Carolina has no QB, no run game, and no way against Tampa Bay who won't take this game lightly.

Game #4 : Kansas City (-1) @ Denver.  Lots of public bets on Denver after the KC loss last week.  The public apparently has forgotten that the rested Broncos are a combined 4-14 since their 6-0 start last year.  Denver LB Williams is caught DUI on Friday night - great prep for a football game by the way.  Statement game for KC here, take them to win in Denver.

Game #5 :  St. Louis (+6) @ San Francisco.   No change from the earlier preview.  Too much respect to a 2-6 team with QB issues against a solid team that has lost only 1 game this year by more than 4 points.  Way too much line value not to take the road team here.

Other games worth considering....

Houston (+1.5) @ Jacksonville. 

Next Cowboys Coach?

Two shizzo team, but Houston is probably due this week after two losses and it always fun to bet the Gus Johnson game.   I can picture it already  5 seconds left, Jacksonville 49, Texans 45.  Shaub drops back to pass, PUTS IT UPPPPPPPPP,  JOHNSON IN THE END ZONE.........   AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH.    TOUCHDOWN ANDRE JOHNSON!   WHAT A GAME!!!!!    (the rest is inaudible screams from Gus.)

New England (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh
The WalterFootball.com pick of the month.  This Patriots will be motivated coming off a loss and always play well in Pittsburgh.  The Pitt O-line is super banged up and as long as the Patriots can bend, but not break against the Pittsburgh passing game, this should be a close one.


Games we lean towards, but not recommending any wagers unless you are feeling super degenerate.  These are in order of confidence:

Lions (+3) @ Bills.  As stated earlier this week like the Lions.  Bills should be smart and lose this game otherwise the Cowboys/Panthers could steal their first overall pick.

Bengals @ Colts (-7).  Surprised the line didn't move, but love Peyton to take down Cinnanatti this week.

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-3).   Ugly football game warning.   Said it earlier this week, revenge game for the Cards who are better at home, and Seattle stinks on the road

Cowboys @ Giants (-14).  Take the G-men.  Same O-coordinator and unmotivated players in Dallas.

Jets @ Browns (+3). Another grudge game for Coach Mangenius who will pull out all tricks against his former team. The Browns plan is to run Payton Hillis into the ground and hope their defense can keep this close.





Lots of games on board, lets go try to cash some big tickets this week.
Good Luck. D$ Out

Week 10 - Thursday Night Football

The axe mercifully fell on Wade Phillips today after the Sunday Night massacre on NBC.  The Cowboys players completely quit on this guy and this step had to happen.  Will be interesting to see who steps in to replacement him in the long run.

Wade will be fine as he gets paid millions of dollars regardless, so don't feel too sorry for him.  Instead focus your energy on bringing it strong with research on the Week #10 NFL Lines!

Some Early Best Bets for this week that are jumping out at me:

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis (-7)
The Colts don't lose two game in a row and will be hungry against a demoralized Bengals squad.  Keep betting against Carson Palmer and the Deva wide receivers any chance you can get.  Grab this line before it jumps up past a key number.  Watch for this line to move to 8.5 or 10 before the end of the week.   Bengals 21  Colts 31

Minnesota (-1) @ Chicago
Possible lock of the week.  The Bears are bad and got lucky they faced a Bills squad with no pass rush to disrupt Culter.  Even with a perfect no turnover game, they still almost lost to an 0-8 team!!!  The Vikings have a much better defense who will be motivated to take down Culter at ever opportunity possible.  I see a lot of interceptions, sacks, fumbles, and a dejected looking Culter walking off the field.   AP and the offense should be able to outscore these guys even in Chicago.  Vikings 24  Bears 7

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-8)
This is a lock of the week.  These teams played a few weeks ago and the Bucs won by 13 on the road.  The Bucs are getting better and the Panthers are missing their entire running game to injury and can't figure out which train wreck QB will be starting for them.  Doesn't matter they both stink.   This team is dead last in a lot of stats, including points scored! This smells like the Green Bay Dallas game on Sunday.   Kitties 3, Buc 38

St. Louis (+6) @ San Francisco
The only question here is whether you think you can take the Rams +6 or go balls out with them on the money line.  San Fran should not be favoured against anyone, especially against a 4-4 team who has a competent QB, a solid run game, a decent defense, and who doesn't turn the ball over.   (Rams are +3 in turnover differential and by the way the 49ers are -4 in that category.)  This is a new Rams team here folks, forget about the 2009 edition, and they could actually win the NFC West at 8-8.  The Rams have had two weeks to plan for QB Troy Smith and will scheme up their D accordingly.  If you haven't figured it out yet - I kinda like the Rams here and want to take advantage of short memories everyone got and the fact that the 49ers have been terrible for 7 of the first 8 weeks of 2010.   Take the points, RAMS 20, 49ers 17.

Seattle @ Arizona (-3)
The Cardinals will be a motivated team.  One to avenge two tough losses against the Bucs and the Vikings the past two weeks.  Second, the Cards are looking to get revenge after losing their earlier tilt against Seattle back in Week 7.  In general Arizona plays better at home than on the road.  Watch the injury report on this game to see if Hasslebeck is out again (as their backup QB is not good) and their stud OT Okung remains out too.  Arizona will be better if Beanie Wells is healthy enough to play, but regardless like them to win at home.  Seahawks 13  Cardinals 24


Now for some alternatives if Indy game goes above -7.....

Tennessee (-1) @ Miami
Just like Bill Simmons, I am done with Miami. They are an average team that simply can't beat the good teams in this league. The Titans appear to be a good team, now with an interesting dynamic of adding Randy Moss to the mix. The Titans are rested off the bye and Miami hasn't won yet at home. Titans 31 Fish 20

Detroit (+2.5) @ Buffalo
The Bills have loss three straight games by 3 points and are now 0-8 on the season.  The Lions should help them become 0-9 as they will want to make up for a poor finish.  Watch the injury report closely on this one to determine who will be the starting QB for this one.  Like the Leos, but if Shaun Hill or Stafford can't go, then might be a stay away game.   Lions 20  Bills 17

Dallas @ NY Giants (-14)
Not much to be said here.  The Cowboys are in shambles and they get to play a top team in the NFC who will be watching tons of Green Bay tape on how to dismantle the Cowboys offensive line.  Cowboys 21 Giants 44


More takes coming as the week rolls along.  Might be staying away from any big plays on Thursday night as both teams are good and Atlanta had to expel a lot energy to beat the Bucs this past week.  Leaning Atlanta if had to choose, but as you can tell there are lots of better betting options out there this week.

Week 9 Recap, Week 10 Preview

It amazes me how certain coaches use the challenge option.  Too many NFL coaches seem to think it is worth challenging a 10 yard completion at the 50 yard line a couple minutes after kickoff instead of saving it for critical moments like turnovers during the last 5 minutes of the half or game.  We saw two classic examples of it this week.


First the Raiders were able to overcome a bad call on a punt which allowed Kansas City to go ahead in the forth quarter.  (Almost allowed us a back-door cover)  Since Tom Caple was too busy challenging meaningless plays he didn't have any challenges left for this critical play which he would have won.  Same happened to Wade Phillips in the last 5 minutes of the first half of their game against Green Bay.   Com'mon man! Somebody on the coaching staff should be getting paid to advise these guys when to use those little red flags.


(Side note:  In Wade's defense his team was getting destroyed by the Packers regardless - and gotta feel for the guy as Al Michaels spent 80% of the broadcast speculating on who is gonna replace him.) 
 
Overall a pretty even week of predictions, which is fine during a tough week of action.  Looking more forward to the Week #10 match ups.

This Thursday will be the first week of Thursday night football with the Ravens heading to Atlanta to play the dirty birds.  The opening line has the Falcons as a 1 point favourite at home.  Like them on a short week as they don't have to travel and have an undefeated record at home.

Some other spreads look juicy :

Minnesota -2.5 @ Chicago.  The drama Vikings could seriously be 4-5 after this game as the Bears are terrible and will have a hard time against the Vikings D to score points.

Detroit -2.5 @ Buffalo.  The Lions are now 7-1 ATS and should have beat the Jets this past week.  The Bills have come off 3 straight crushing defeats and like the Lions to get their 3rd win of the season.

Tampa -8.5 vs Carolina.  The Bucs are legit and Carolina is the worst team in the league.  Ride the streak and keep betting against Carolina until they win a game.

St. Louis +4.5 @ San Fran.  The 49ers don't deserve to be giving points to anyone right now.  The Rams have played good football and will play hard to get control of the NFC West.

Other early leanings:
KC +1.5 over Broncos
Colts -7.0 over the Bengals
Giants -?? over the Cowboys.

Week #10 looks to be a big week.... let's go study and get ready to cash some big tickets!

D$ Out

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #9

Tough, tough, tough spreads this week.  Took a long time to come up with five best bets for Sunday action, but here we go:

Morning Games
1)  New Orleans -7 @ Carolina.  The Saints are playing better then they were a few week ago when these two teams last played.  Good value on the reining Super Bowl chamaps who are starting to wake up from their hangover.

2) Miami +5 @ Baltimore.  Hard to ignore the fish perfect road record and the Ravens haven't impressed as of late.

3) New England -5 @ Cleveland.  Coach Hoodie won't be afraid to run up the score here and they are clearly the better squad.  Provided the players don't look ahead of course.

4) Detroit +6 vs New York Jets.  The line move convinced me there is now value on the Lions to cover this game.  Remember the Lions are 6-1 ATS and +6 leaves a backdoor cover possible.  (p.s. Gus Johnson is calling this game!!  Good sign.)

Later Games
5) Kansas City (Pick) @ Oakland.  Oakland has confidence winning against some bottom feeders the past two weeks, but Kansas City is legitimate and will give the Raiders all they can handle.  Take the Chiefs here.

Other Leanings:
NY Giants (-7) @ Seattle
Indianapolis (+3) @ Philladelphia
Pittsburgh (-5) @ Cinncinati 

NOTE: Some serious line moves happening this morning. ATL opened as 7.5 point favourite and has moved to 10. The Jets were 4 point favourites at the start of the week and are now 6.


Good Luck this week.  D$

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #9

#3 TCU clearly made a statement on Saturday with a beat down of #5 Utah.  The top 4 in the BCS standings will remain unchanged and Boise State is probably going to need a loss from the top three if it hopes to make it to the BCS title game in early January.

And a big congrats to Joe-Pa, who won his 400th Career game.  Down 21 at the half, the Nittany Lions scored 35 straight for the comeback win.  Seeing old man Joe Paterno lifted onto the shoulders of his players at the end of game was a good moment in sports - another for the legendary coach.

NFL Week #9 has some tough spreads and some deeper examination is needed to pick our best bets.  (Which we will post before kickoff on Sunday)

Chicago @ Buffalo (+3)  - game played in Toronto
The Bills are coming off back to back OT losses against playoff level competition and the Bears are a mess after losing three of their past four heading into their bye week.  The Bears can't keep Culter upright which is causing him to make poor decisions with the ball.  The Bills don't have much talent, but have been playing hard.  This is one of the few games the Bills have a chance to win this season so it will be interesting if they can find the energy after two tough losses.  Don't think we can put our money down on a 0-7 team, but have a slight leaning on them winning their first of the season.  Bears 13  Bills 16

New Orleans (-7) @ Carolina
The Saints have been playing better the past few weeks, but still don't have a run game with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush injured.  Carolina is probably the worst team in the league and will be missing DeAngelo Williams.  These two teams played a close game a few weeks ago in the Superdome, but we see the Saints playing better now and should be able to cover a touchdown - especially against a team that has trouble scoring points  (Dead last in the NFL).  Saints 24  Panthers 13

Arizona (-8) @ Minnesota
Can we trust a Vikings squad to cover more than a touchdown?  So much drama and injuries for this pre-maddonna team.  The Vikes lost an emotional game last week against the Pats and have two big games coming up after this 'easy' one against the Cardinals.  The Cardinals will be hungry after getting beat last week.  We can't trust either team too much, but leaning on a Cardinal cover.  Arizona 20  Minnesota 24.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-8)
The Falcons have been dominate at home over the past two years and are a tempting favourite.  Tampa Bay does have have 5 wins, but they are against : Cleveland, Carolina, Cinncinati, St. Louis & Arizona.  None of these teams are very good.  Their two losses are against Pittsburgh & New Orleans by a combined 69-19.   We see Atlanta being a solid team that should win easily, but a bit scared that -8 is a lot of points which may allow for a back-door cover.  Bucs 13, Falcons 31

San Diego (-3) @ Houston
Andre Johnson is not 100% healthy and Matt Shaub is not the same QB because of it.  The Chargers are the better squad who have had some bad luck in previous weeks.  Houston has to outscore their opponent to beat them and we can't see them doing that this week.  We would like the Chargers even more if Antonio Gates was healthy, but the Bolts should start November with two straight victories and get back into the playoff race.  Chargers 35  Houston 28

Miami (+5) @ Baltimore
The Fish are a perfect 4-0 on the road and are playing an over-rated Ravens squad who is coming off a bye week.  The fish have only lost to solid teams  (Pittsburgh, New England, & the Jets), and should give the Ravens a run on Sunday.  We like the dog here.  Dolphins 20  Batimore 23

New York Jets @ Detriot (+4.5)
The Lions are 6-1 ATS this season and we gotta keep riding them until this trend stops.  The Lions have an under-rated D-Line lead by Rookie of the Year candidate Chaos N. Suh.  Don't like teams coming off a loss then going on the road and expected to win by a touchdown.  Jets 17  Lions 20

New England (-5) @ Cleveland
The Browns have been scrappy this season, but there is some bad blood with Coach Hoodie not being a fan of Coach Mangenius.  If the Pats have the opportunity, they are going to pile it on the Browns in this matchup.  The Browns are starting Colt McCoy who hasn't been spectacular and will need to be if they want to keep up with the high scoring Pats.  Pats 35  Browns 17

NY Giants @ Seattle  (+7)
Seattle stud 1st round draft pick Russell Okung is out again this week and so is former Pro-Bowl QB Matt Hasslebeck.  The Giants were playing really well heading into their bye week and are clearly the better team here.  The Qwest home field advantage and a motivated Seahawks squad are factors to consider before laying any cheese on this one.  Giants 23  Seahawks 20

Kansas City (+1) @ Oakland
Who would have thought this might be might be the game of the week with both teams playing well this season.  The Raiders are playing with confidence and it may be tough to back the Chiefs on the road here, but star corner Nnamdi Asomugha is out and the chiefs should be able to run on the 31st ranked run defense if this game is close in the second half.  Chiefs 23 Raiders 20.

Indianapolis (+3) @ Philladelphia
The Colts should not be getting points from anyone.  We like them to win straight up.  Colts 28 Eagles 20.

Dallas @ Green Bay (-7.5)
Hard to imagine the 1-6 Cowboys keeping this game close against the Packers.  The weakness of the Packers is their run defense, but that is also the weakness of the Cowboys who are second last in the league in rushing yards.  Cowboys 21  Packers 34

Pittsburgh (-4) @ Cinncinati
The Bengals deva wide receivers will love the spotlight on Monday night football, but this team is no match for the powerhouse steelers.  Steeler 23  Bengals 9

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