More Upsets and a new Top 25

Quick takes from the world of NCAA hoops & a new Top 25:

ESPN: Crazy week brings change to Top 25

Notes: 

• The ACC is weak.  But keep your eye on UNC who everyone had written off - they are quietly starting to play better.
• Michigan State is officially at a Kansas State level of trouble on the 2010-11 season.  Both appear to be against teams.
• Penn State has been a cover machine.  Outright win against WIS may skew the Tuesday spread against #24 Illinois.

Superbowl = Prop Bets

The line for this game has the Packers anywhere from 2.5 to 3 point favourites with the total of 45.

The most bet on game of the year has a ton of extra prop bets to keep this interesting no matter the score.  We'll take a look and see which ones are actually worth your time and money.   For now... D$ out!

WHAT A GAME!

Wow!

Thursday was crazy day and we were treated to a gem of a game as Indiana knocks of #24 ranked Illinois.

We were lucky to have Gus Johnson calling this matchup on the Big Ten Network, reaching a Deff Con 5 level of excitement.  'What a game!' The crowd was in a frenzy with an amazing atmosphere that really felt like March Madness!  Congrats to Indiana coach Tom Crean who got his first win at Indiana in 19 games against a top 25 ranked team.

In other action, our hunch of SMU over Gonzaga game true and as the Zags lost a close one at home.

And in another shocker, Michigan State officially is in a free fall as they lost to Michigan at home.

We get to catch our breath and bring it on Saturday.
D$ is Peace Out!

Getting Jimmer with It!

Wednesday Recap:

Jimmer Fredette goes off and drops 43 as #9 BYU drops #4 San Diego St. 71-58.  BYU is tough at home and a team to watch (and bet on) heading towards March.

A quick look at Thursday games has us looking towards #24 Saint Mary's  @ Gonzaga.   (11:00pm EST tip)  The Zags have not been playing well and living off a their reputation from past seasons.  The Zags are early 4 point favourites and gonna be very tempting to take Saints Mary's on the road here.  SMU should bounce back after losing their last game and not worried about them being on the road here.

D$ Out

Tuesday Night Recap

A quick recap on the night's events in the NCAA:

• Korie Lucious dismissed from Mich St.  Michigan State announced Tuesday night that it has dismissed junior guard Korie Lucious for the rest of the season.  "Unfortunately, Korie Lucious displayed conduct detrimental to the program," Spartans coach Tom Izzo said in a statement. "My focus is on this team for the remainder of the season."
• Syracuse gets beaten down by 20 at home to Seton Hall!  This may be a bet against team for another game or two until they figure out what is wrong with the Orange.
• Purdue did not show well against OSU on the road.  They are good squad, but clearly a class below the upper echelone teams and OSU is on the way to winning the Big 10 regular season title now.

******************
Games to watch on Wednesday include : 

#4 San Diego State @ #9 BYU (-4.0) 10:00pm EST tip. 
Could we be left with only one undefeated team at the end of the night?  D$ tends to think so and may be grabbing this one on Wednesday.

West Virginia @ #19 Louisville (-8.0).  7:00pm EST tip.
Huggins suspended leading scorer Casey Mitchell indefinitely for a violation of team rules.  This leaves WVU with only 8 scholarship players on the roster and is the reason for the inflated line as these two teams are pretty even otherwise.  Leaning towards a stay away until we see how the Mountaineers handle this loss.

Iowa @ Penn State (-6.5).  6:30pm EST tip.
Penn State has played all the best teams in the Big Ten close all month.  Not a deep squad, but they should be able to outclass Iowa at home.  Another game D$ is leaning towards.

D$ Out!

Super Tuesday Prep

Let's take a quick look at the Super Tuesday match ups this week:

Match up #1 : Seton Hall @ #10 Syracuse (-13.0).  7:00pm EST tip.
Was expecting the spread to be a little smaller after two straight up losses by the Orange coupled with a 6 point margin of victory when these two teams played on Jan 8th. (Seton Hall was a 7.5pt home dog in that one.)  Syracuse should be motivated, but this spread may be a little too large.

Match up #2 : #5 Kansas @ Colorado (+7.5).  8:00pm EST tip.

Kansas will be motivated after losing their first game in KU in 70 games.  But this team seems a little overrated to D$ and wouldn't be too quick to jump on them as favourites vs Colorado.  This team is 1-4 ATS in last five and not blowing teams away in Big 12 action with the exception of Baylor.  Just saying this one not automatic, so do your homework first before putting down the cheese here.

Match up #3: #5 Connecticut @ Marquette (-4.0).  9:00pm EST tip.
We were excited to perhaps see Marquette be a slight home dog here, but to our surprise the spread has opened Marquette being a four point fav.  The lines makers disrespecting the #5 ranks Uconn Hukies who have showed poorly on the road the past two seasons until recently.  Oddsmakers see the Golden Eagles as zig-zag team of the Big East.  Might be another stay away game as not much value.

Match up #4: #12 Purdue @ #1 Ohio State (-7.5).  9:00pm EST tip.

The feature match up of the day. The spread has opened at 7.5 and temping us to grab Purdue here. OSU hasn't beaten anyone higher than 18 in the RPI yet this season and most of their wins against the better teams this month were close (PSU, Illinois, and Minnesota in January Big 10 play). Purdue is riding some momentum after beating down Mich. St on Saturday night and will be a motivated dog trying to take down #1 in the nation.

(Incidentally, OSU players Jon Diebler, Aaron Craft, and POY candidate Jared Sullinger should stick to ballin' and not singing any more Miley Cyrus songs. Check out this YouTube video if you haven't heard about what we're talking about.)

Good Luck on Tuesday.  D$ Out

Duke Blue Devils....ALL Nolan Smith!

Just crushed through 3 Duke games on the ol' PVR last night. Watched their games v. UAB, @ FSU and @ NC State. This'll be a quick take, but Duke has it all in a wide open year where any team in the nation can win come Madness time. They have the All-Adolph Player of the Year leading candidate in SR. PG Nolan Smith, a certifiable wingman in SR. F. Kyle "Goose" Singler and a versatile combo of big men in the Brothers Plumlee and surprisingly SO. F Ryan Kelly. They have consistent timely contributions from shooting guards, SO. Seth Curry and SO. Andre Dawkins.

Duke starts and ends off of Nolan Smith at the point. They start three-quarters of their possessions with a simple on-ball screen for Smith and on 80% of those screens, Smith just drives it to the hole and scores. Their second option is Goose coming off of a pick-n-roll for a 3 pointer or easy 15 footer from anywhere on the court. Both players have averaged over 20 ppg since the injury of All-World freshie PG, Kyrie Irving, who's probably gone for the rest of the year with a torn tendon in his Big Toe.

Their bigs will be a presence in the blocks with the Brother Plumlee (SOPH. Mason and JR. Miles). If the opposition has a presence in the blocks like FSU did in Duke's loss, then it'll be up to Nolan and Kyle to take over as the bigs will be neutralized. All Duke big men are foul prone to any drives/shots in the paint. If this is the case, then they should make those penetraters pay with no easy layups ala the 90's Knicks/Pacers serie's. Although, they have the most complete team in the nation, leave it to Coach Krasinski-errrr-Sha-chevrolet-ski to not add any personality to the post fouls. That's so Duke of you Coach AMEX!!

It's pretty simple on how to beat Duke. Other than the aforementioned post match-up neutrality and foul prone-ness, the Duke high-pressure man-to-man defense can be used aginst itself, as many teams have had great success penetrating the ball to the paint. Once a Duke post steps up on the drive, then the easy dish is open for an opposing player under the bucket. Maryland, Virginia had success in close games v Duke, and that's how FSU disected Duke in a lucky win in Tallahassee. NC State ran this dribble penetration 4 times in their game on Wednesday, and it worked everytime. Hey Head Coach, Sidney Lowe, once your players develop any toughness stronger then the consistency of jell-o, then maybe you can call a play that even your soft and athletic NC State Wolf Pack players can be successful on. Poor play calling Lowe, poor!

That's one thing with a wide open Madness this year, not only does Duke have one of, if not the most complete teams in the nation, but they also have great timing in playing in the softest ACC since Oliver Miller's belly!

If an opposing team takes advantage of the dribble penetration-n-dish plays that have had been successful v Duke, they'll have to find a way to weather the daily Nolan Smith storm. At this point, I haven't seen anyone able to contain his drives, let alone stop them. Nolan Smith doesn't get many garbage time hoops either, as most are very timely in being a great ATS spread cooler hoop or in keeping Duke in the game with those stone 3's late in the FSU game.

Duke does add the odd Syracuse style 2-3 zone and can cut the shot clock off with an OK 3/4 full court press. When they have the lead, Coach K will use clock and shorten the game down. With this Coach K management and Nolan Smith's cooler abilities, for the time being vs. any ACC team, the Dukie's look like a team that will usually cover regardless of the spread. (Although, these games will have a high sweat factor, just like last nights beat down of Wake Forest)
Duke has it all, as painful as it is to say, as opposed to the inconsistencies of the youth of Ohio State's Jared Sullinger or KU's Morris Twins. Right now, we're looking at a Pitt/Duke strong hold on the All-Adolph Top 10 rankings which is coming soon.

Stay mad!!!

Insanity Report out!

Underdog Saturday

Theme of the day was underdog winners.  Straight up wins by:

• #11 Texas (+7) at #2 Kansas.   First lost at home by Kansas in 70 games.  Texas is a talented team, well coached, and will be a force in March.
• #7 Villanova (+7) at #3 Syracuse.  Tough week for the Cuse with losses to Pitt and Nova will have them dropping a few spots in the AP Top 25.
• Providence (+5) got it's first Big East win of the season at home (now 1-6) against #15 Louisville.  Louisville is a soft team and don't trust their point guards.
• Texas Tech (+4) got it's first win at home in Big 12 action against Nebraska. 
• San Francisco (+9) won against Gonzaga and has zags fans now wondering is this a tourney team? 

Some favourites did manage to cover today as #1 Ohio State, #4 Pitt, #5 Duke, #8 Connecticut, and  #9 BYU all won and covered.  Most of those games had a high sweat factor though.  Until tomorrow.... D$ Out

NCAA Picks - Sat. January 22nd

Alright, after an 0-3 smack down with our Thursday NCAA picks, we are up off the canvus like a prize fighter.  Until Thursday it had been a good week picking NCAA games for Easycovers and we are ready to end it well.  Correspondents with mad texts back and forth in the morning discussed following:


Pitt and Duke were huge road favourites.  Pitt 17.5 over DePaul and Duke 22.0 over Wake Forest.  Had a slight inclination to take the dogs here because of the recent home dog trend covering, but decided to stay away.

Other leans, but deciding to stay away.  Texas +7 @ Kansas.  Texas is on fire lately and should give KU all it can handle.  Youngstown State also looks interesting +5 at home vs a bad Detroit squad.


Crazydavo was a fan of Texas A&M -5 at home to Kansas State.  K. State has been reeling lately and Texas A&M has won 30 of the last 31 at home.


We like Nebraska to cover the -4 on the road versus Texas Tech in a Big 12 matchup.  Nebraska last week kept it within 3 with Kansas and is 14-4 on ths season.  Texas Tech got beat down by the aforementioned Kansas State and is 0-4 in the Big 12.


The numbers have D$ taking Louisville -5 over Providence.   Providence is 0-6 in the Big East and #15 Louisville may have their flaws and few injuries, but should be able to cover this small spread.


D$ likes Marquette +4 @ Notre Dame.  The Irish lost by 22 points at Marquette 12 days ago and although this game should be a lot closer, we like Marquette and the points here.

And finally D$ laid the cheese down on Michigan St. +6 @ Purdue.  Lots of talk by Michigan State calling this a must win game to stay in contention for Big Ten title.  Prime time, with Erin Andrews in the house, like the Izzo factor and riding the Spartans!


NHL Quick Picks:
Carolina +130 @ Pittsburgh.  Crosby and Malkin out for Pittsburgh so they will struggle to score in this matchup.  Take Carolina as a value bet here against the undermanned Penguins.


Washington -125 @ Toronto.   The Leafs are not a good team and from a talent prospective are outclassed by the Capitals.  Some value here as Washington on the road, playing their hot backup goalie should be able to get the job done here.


Good Luck today.  D$ Out

Took it on the chin last night!

0 for 3 last night! Ouch. But good bets I still feel.

Lost out on Wisconsin -13.5 at home to Indiana. Final score 69-60 for the Badgers. Looking at the box scores, Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer did do their damaging scoring and the Indiana bigs did their usual no show on the box score. Lesson learned here, is that the spread may have been too high for Wisconsin. They're not an overly offensive offensive squad (Huh?), and giving up 60 points to Indiana is a typical result for a Bo Ryan led defense. So, lesson learned on takin Wisconsin at home as a double digit spread. But remember, Wisconsin rarely loses at home.

Lost out on Gonzaga -8.5 on the road to Santa Clara, AKA Steve Nash A&M! I'm viewing this as an anomoly, as Gonzaga should have wallopped SNA&M! But Insanity Report Gonzaga Correspondant, Marc Paulsen said Gonzaga shot them selves in the foot with turnovers and bad shots. Gonzaga Head Coach, Mark Few is still fiddling with the Bulldogs line-up, and once they put Redshirt Freshmen PG, John Stockton Jr and Sophomore Wing (Not effing Post), Kelly Olynyk in the starting line-up, bet heavy on the Zags!!! Until then, it's a bet on a game by game basis, as reports state that Elias Harris and Steven Gray are also battling nagging injuries for Gonzaga.

Lost out on Portland -3 at San Francisco. Stupid bet. When the only thing you know about San Fran is that Bill Russell went their, then that's not a game to bet on. My apologies for steering J-Dawg, D$ and Paulsen into that bet. Beers on me at the next Lingerie Lunch at the Shark Club!

That's it for now. Stay tuned for the All-Adolph Top Ten, first installment! Also, we're scouting heavy on the Big Ten and some Pac-10. Big Ten.....look out for Penn State, they're legit, and look for Iowa to take their plummet!!!

CrazyDavo out!!!!!!

NFL Conference Championship Sunday

We have reached the final four of the NFL season.  Here is our quick break down of the Conference Championship matchups.

Game #1: 12:00pm PST Kickoff (FOX) - Packers @ Bears (+3.5)
Hard to believe that the #2 seeded Bears are getting 3.5 points at home here.  Lots of public love for Green Bay after their beat down of ATL last weekend.   But this next game is outdoors, features a better Bears defense, and there will be revenge on the Bears mind.  The Pack were tied 3-3 heading into the 4th quarter of their week 17 matchup three weeks ago in Green Bay.  Expecting a close, low-scoring matchup.  Go with the team who you think will win not just cover.   Packers 14 Bears 17.

Game #2: 3:30pm PST Kickoff (CBS) - Jets (+3.5) @ Steelers
The Steelers got very lucky to get a win last week against Baltimore.  A meltdown in the 3rd quarter by the Ravens, coupled with some terrible late game defense allowed the Steelers to steal a game away they did not deserve to win. Pittsburgh's O-line is extremely banged up and will have trouble scoring if the Jets defense plays like they did last week against the Patriots.  The Jets just beat Manning and Brady and are on a roll now.  If the Sanchize can continue to protect the ball this should be a low scoring / close game, with the outcome being decided by a field goal.   Jets 16  Steelers 13.

We will take a look at props and Superbowl bets as we get closer to kickoff.
D$ out

Thursday Picks

Games we like today...

Game #1, 6:00pm Tip : Gonzaga -8.5 @ Santa Clara 
This game was teased in yesterday's blog post.  Should be a sweat factor here but we like the Zags to cover the 8.5 on the road.

Game #2, 6:00pm Tip : Wisconsin -13.5 vs Indiana. 
Expecting a blowout here as Wisconsin should be able to wear down a thin Indiana squad.  It is Indiana's first game without Mo Creek and that thin bench is getting thinner.

Game #3, 7:30pm PST Tip:  Portland -3 @ San Francisco.
Portland is the #2 Team in the Nation in 3 point field goal percentage.  Like they way they match up and the home dog trend doesn't apply when the spread so small.  Small sweat factor here but like the Pilots to cover.

Games of note : 

Auburn +12 at home vs Florida.   Home dogs of 8 or more have been covering regularly in conference play.  Florida is a streaky shooting team.  19.2% from 3pt FG in this game vs Florida.  It's a boom or bust team that should be steered clear from when betting games as can't trust it.   In this game they didn't shoot well and thus Auburn almost won and easily covered.

Good Luck today.

Fired Up.... On A Roll with NCAA Basketball

Alright, so we need to do a better job of posting our intel and picks before the games as Crazydavo has been on fire with his NCAA picks!

On Tuesday our big play was Georgetown to cover -4 vs Seton Hall which was a winner.  (A little sweat, but got the job done!)

Onto Wednesday, with the texts flying around the crew was big fans of Notre Dame -4 at home facing an overrated Cincinnati Bearcats squad.   The Irish Boys scored a solid 66-58 victory and kept our winning streak rolling.


Other roundup from Wednesday :

Penn State played yet another close game and lost by 1 to #9 Ranked Purdue.  PSU has played well against quality opponents.  Narrow losses on the road #1 Ohio State this past Sunday, #9 Purdue today, and wins last week against #16 Illinois and #19 Michigan State.  This team has been covering spreads in the tough Big TEN.  Keep your eye on them over the next few weeks.

Getting ready for Thursday.... we are liking Gonzaga -9.5 on the road at Santa Clara.  Correspondents are noting that Santa Clara had a cake non-conference schedule and are not in the same class when it moved to WCC play.

Monday Night NCAA Hoops

Monday hoops news and notes from around the NCAA :

NCAA Rankings - January 17th - Duke drops to #5, Ohio State the new #1.

Freddy Asprilla leaves Kansas State - Unrest in Kansas St. as starting Centre leaves team.  Bet against this squad as free falling right now.

Kris Joseph to miss showdown at Pitt - Strong lean to Pitt to cover -6 with SCuse leading scorer out.

MANIC MONDAY PICK OF THE DAY
Pick of the day for Crazydavo and D$ is Kansas -4 at Baylor.  (6:40pm tip)  As crazy Davo says "Baylor has been shitting the bed lately".  D$ likes the fact that the #2 team in the nation only needs to cover 4 points.  Take Kansas and get ready to cash that ticket!

Good Luck today.

60 Minutes Interview with Billy Walters

Check out this CBS 60 Minutes Interview :

Las Vegas sports betting legend Bill Walters has never had a losing year - a winning a streak that's made odds makers call him the "most dangerous sports bettor in Nevada." Lara Logan reports.

60 Minutes Interview - January 16, 2011

Divisional Round - Sunday Picks

Matty Ice and the Falcons were Ice Cold on
offensive committing 4 turnovers on Saturday

Wow.  Matt Ryan was a huge disspointment on Saturday in his first ever home playoff game.  With a dirty bird crowd jacked up he and the Falcons turned the ball over four times included a game changing pick 6 at the end of the first half which completed deflated Atlanta.

On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers could not have played any better and were unstopable.  The Falcons defense had no answers as Rodgers picked apart the secondary and took advantage of teriible tackling. 

It is understandable why Chicago had their starters in the game for Week #17 when they played the Pack as this team is getting red hot and didn't want to face them again in the playoffs.  (Side note:  How good would the Pack be if Jemichael Finley, Ryan Grant and the other 12 IR guys were still playing?)   Definitely the Pack have become our early favourite to come out of the NFC for the Superbowl.......

..... unless you believe in a team of destiny and the Seattle Seahawks!  A team which is playing like an underdawg with nothing to lose and would love to host the NFL championship at QWest Field.

But before that happens they have to beat the Bears and I just don't see this happening.  People are getting a little too hyped up after a mini upset in Wild Card weekend here.  The Bears defense is a major step up from the Saints the previous week and the Seahawks this seasons were an awful 2-6 on the road.  Losing games by an average of 20 points.  Yes, one of those wins was Week #6 against Da Bears, but this Chicago team is much different from then and finished the season 7-2 with a better grasp of Mike Martz's offense.  The Bears defense and special teams will dominate this game and as long as Culter doesn't turn the ball over this should be a blowout.   Bears 38  Seahawks 10

As mentioned earlier this week we like the Pats to cover against the Jets.  Lots of smack before the game is great as it builds interest and also gives the Pats motivation to pile it on if leading this game.   Great if looking to cover a 9 point spread - which we are!   Jets 17  Pats 34

Good Luck to everyone.
D$ Out

Divisional Round - Saturday Picks

Before we get to the NFL action, after surveying the menu today we really like an NCAA Big TEN matchup.  Red hot Penn State should be able to cover the 17 points against the #2 ranked Ohio State.   PSU has won it's last two against decent squads Illinois and Michigan, and although not deep should be able to hang with Ohio State.  This line is a bit too generous for the favourite here, so take the points and ride the Nitney Lions!

As for the NFL, the early Saturday game of Baltimore vs Pittsburgh (-3.5) feels like a stay away with the two teams having played close games the past two years.   Without a strong lean we stay away, (disicpline) and look for other opportunities.  Putting the Ravens in a teaser seems like the best bet here as it will be tough for the Steelers to cover 10 in what should be another close matchup.

D$ is joining Bill Simmons as one of the few who are backing the Falcons at the moment.  Some line value today with Falcons only being favoured by 1.  But this has moved at Bodog from 3 to 1 since Friday morning so the public is over the Pack.  A strong play in this game might be the OVER 44.5 with both offenses able to put up points - expect a shootout.

Good Luck today.

NFL Divisional Playoffs

How many swear words are said under
their breath when they handshake
on Sunday afternoon?

Congratulations to the Auburn Tigers, national champs and for those who picked the UNDER that was a low sweat factor or as we say... an Easy Cover!

Here is a quick look at the lines for this coming weekend's games:

Saturday @ 4:30pm EST - CBS
Baltimore Ravens +3.5  (-125)
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5  (+105)

Saturday @ 8:00pm EST - FOX
Green Bay Packers +2  (-110)
Atlanta Falcons       -2   (-110)

Sunday @ 1:00pm EST - FOX
Seattle Seahawks  +10.5  (-120)
Chicago Bears       -10.5  (Even)

Sunday @ 4:30pm EST - CBS
New York Jets           +9.0  (-120)
New England Patriots -9.0 (Even)

Early Easy Covers Leans:
Crazy Davo is in the love with the underdog Seahawks at +10.5 early in the week.  Can they cover double digit spreads on the road two straight weeks?  Da Bears defense is much better than the Saints, but their O-Line is questionable and Cutler is extremely hit or miss.

D$ and Crazy Davo are both fans of the Patriots -9.   The last time these two teams played five weeks ago on MNF it was 45-3. (Week #13 - Dec 6th)  What has changed?   The Patriots are more rested and the Jets have the fraudchize in cold weather.  If the Jets can't run the ball, then it will be a repeat and an easy cover.

More to come....

BCS National Championship - Jan 10th

#2 Oregon @ #1 Auburn

Easy Covers Line:  Tigers -3
Total: 73
Location : University of Phoenix Stadium (Indoor)

The Play:
The Over/Under of 73 is intriguing to us with both teams having 6 weeks off to prepare for the game.  Teams will be rusty/nervous/fired up at kickoff and it will take a quarter for them to settle down and play football.  This is why we like the UNDER for the game.  (First half if your book offers that line.)

Good Luck and enjoy the game.

Wild Card Sunday

We are still a little bitter with the Colts loss against the Jets last night.  

The Fraudchize was terrible in this game consistently overthrowing receivers and gave the Jets absolutely no passing game.  If the Colts had any kind of run defense the Jets would have a had absolutely no offense. 

The Colts shot themselves in the foot a few times in this game - but inexplicably called a timeout with 29 seconds left in the game that ended up shortening the winning FG for the Jets. 

Now it is time to move on and make our picks for Sunday:

Baltimore (-3) @ Kansas City
The Chiefs have had a cake schedule this season.  If you review the teams they played in their 16 game schedule, they only played 2 playoff teams. (One was the Seahawks so you could argue really only one quality team!)   The Chiefs will have the Arrowhead crowd and a solid running attack to keep this game close, but the Ravens are a solid team that find ways to win games and we like them here.  If Flacco and the offense can get things on track this could be a 10-20 point win for the Ravens.   Ravens 24  Chiefs 16

Green Bay (+2.5) @ Philadelphia
This game has so too many factors going on and will be very unpredictable, but if you are a degenerate then throw a few bones towards the Packers in this contest. We are not completely buying the Eagles and Green Bay has a better defense which may be the difference.  Definitely put your cheese to the earlier game and get ready for next week.   Packers 31  Eagles 28

Good Luck.  D$ Out

Wild Card Saturday - Quick Picks

New Orleans @ Seattle (+11)
The Seahawks are a bit of a fraud by making the playoffs and first glance would say take the Saints in a heartbeat, but a deeper looks says otherwise.   The Saints have lost their two starting RBs in Thomas and Ivory and have to depend on Reggie Bush and Orange Julious Jones... ugh.   They will not be able to run and grind out the game in the second half to salt this one away.

The last matchup between these two teams in the Big Easy was closer than you might think with some biased zebra calls.   The Saints have only covered 11 a couple times all year.  With this game in Qwest field and Hasslebeck back at QB we like the Seahawks to keep it within the 11, but expect the Saints to win the game.    Saints 31  Seahawks 24



New York Jets @ Indianapolis (-3)
After going back and forth on this game, until Peyton loses at home in prime time, we can't bet against him.  Stay away if you will, but we can't back a Jets team who was 2-3 down the stretch while the Colts were 4-0.  No a big unit play but take the Colts to cover here.   Jets 17  Colts 24

Good Luck on Saturday!

Get ready......

.... because it's PLAYOFF time!   Stay tuned for more breakdown on Wild Card weekend coming soon!

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #17

Motivation.   The last week of the regular season is all about who has more motivation to win games and who is resting up for the playoffs.  Because of this, there are 6-8 games which are unbetable as both teams are unmotivated.   (e.g. San Diego @ Denver.)

So our best bets feature teams who will be motivated and here we go with Week #17 picks:

Carolina @ Atlanta (-14)
The dirty birds are motivated as they need a win to clinch #1 overall in the NFC.  A loss could mean they drop to #5 and loss the all important BYE.   Carolina has clinched #32 overall already and is playing with a coach who is already cleaning up his office and already thinking about where his next meal ticket will be.  A team without a quarterback and who be excited to get the offseason started - hardly a motivated man.   The Panthers lost a month ago by 21 to Atlanta so 14 points doesn't scare us away.   Panthers 13  Falcons 38.

Pittsburgh (-6) @ Cleveland
The Steelers need this game to maintain the #2 seed and get the home field BYE.  A loss and they are either a #5 or #6 seed.  Big Ben and Troy Polamalu need rest to be effective in the playoffs.  On the other side of the ball the Browns are out of the playoff hunt and their best player, Petyon Hillis, is super banged up.  Pittsburgh won by 18 back in Week #6 after a late TD to backdoor cover a 14.0 point spread - the spread this Week #6 give me a unit on the Steelers.   Steelers 23  Browns 16

Jacksonville @ Houston (-3)
Jacksonville lost their season two weeks ago when they lost to the Colts.  Since then, MJD goes down for the season, and so does starting QB David Garrad.  In comes Trent Edwards to lead them in a must win game?   A guy who wasn't even good even to play for the lowly BILLS!!! Com'mon man!  Add to the fact that he hadn't had many 1st team reps until this week and the fact that Houston traditionally plays week in #17, 4-0 under Kubiak, we like the Texans to get a win here.   Jacksonville 16  Houston 31.

Chicago @ Green Bay (-10)
Motivation again plays a factor.  With the Falcons and Saints playing the early game, the Bears should know that they have no way of improving their position.  The Packers are playing to get into the Playoffs - all the motivation you need.   Bears 16  Packers 31

St. Louis (-3) @ Seattle
It's easy to talk about motivation in this game, winner goes the playoffs, but there may be another factor to consider here - conspiracy.   That's right folks, a conspiracy theory as the NFL is not interested in having a 7-9 team making the playoffs. Don't be surprised if the game become close if the zebras take control with some calls favouring the RAMs.  (Just sayin')   If you factor this theory, couple d with Seattle just being an aweful team and it's no secret we love the RAMs.    Rams 31  Seattle 13.

Good luck to everyone in Week #17.
D$ Out!