Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #3

Here is D$'s best bets and analysis of the line moves heading into kickoff:

EARLY GAMES
Bengals -3. Bad weather in Carolina should keep this close, so shop around on best line as Bodog is at 3.5 at time of blog post. The under 38 is worth a deeper look because as both teams will need to rely on run games more.

NE -14. If you can get this price, I like them to cover as said ealier in week.

Under 37 for Browns @ Ravens.

49ers -3. A risky pick after the Monday Night game - and many sportbooks are offering reduced juice to back them, refusing to budge the line from -3. I am hanging on to the belief that the Chiefs aren't a very good team (despite their 2-0 record) and they will show their true colours this week.

LATE GAMES
Colts -6. Totally agree with JDawg. Bet this before line moves to -7. ( Moreno out plus Champ Bailey and other stud Brocs corner is injured.)

Under 39.5 in Raiders @ Cardinals.


STAY AWAY - NO VALUE GAMES
Atlanta @ New Orleans (-3.5). Line has moved a full point towards the dirty birds, but not enough value on either side to make this a worthwhile play. Enjoy as fan and take notes for future weeks.

Pit -3 @ Tampa Bay. This should be a low scoring, ugly game and you may need every point you can get if taking a side here. i.e. seems like you might be sweating right until the final whistle. Under 33 is too few points and too scary so staying away from both.

Good Luck and Enjoy the Games!!

Still recovering from a great day of College Football! UCLA +16 at Texas? Colt McCoy has proven very hard to replace in Austin and Slick Rick finally has a signature win. Great job by Alabama escaping in Arkansas, they are still the team to beat, but once again this game shows their are many landmines ahead in the SEC. Boise State got the job done but none of the much needed style points.
Ok on to the NFL.
5 Star game of the day.
Carson Palmer vs Jimmy Clausen. I know how hard it is to take Road dogs but this QB mismatch is off the charts and the Bengals D looked much improved last week. We will give the 3 points and ride with Cats!
4 Star Game
The San Francisco Forty Niners had a nice bounce back last week and if they are going to contend in the NFC West (the most pathetic division in all of sports today) they need to win this game. The Chiefs are improved and Arrowhead is one of the toughest places to play in the league but we like the Niners -3.

We will also include another road favourite here with the Colts -6 at Denver. Last year in Indy the Colts were up on Denver 21 zip half way through the second quarter. The absence of Moreno for Denver is big because it takes away the threat of a running game which Denver really needed to keep Payton Manning off the field. Look for the Colts to dominate here and ride this pony for some easy money.
3 Star Game
Finally we will fade a home favourite and take the Dallas Cowboys +3 at Houston. The Texans have been impressive but their pass defense has been lit up in 2 games this year. Dallas has won the stat battle in both it's games this year and we think in this desperate situation they will come up big and win the battle of Texas!
Totals:
Currently riding a 4 and 0 record in NFL totals this year! Here are the games we like this week:
Cleveland/Baltimore Under 37
Oakland/Arizona Under 39.5
Redskins/Rams Under 39
Gook luck to everyone this week!

CRAZYDAVO'S WEEK 3 EARLY PICKS

Alright, so we're in Week 3 and it's tough to stick to your guns, but I'll try. Here goes:

NO -3.5 vs. ATL
Drew Brees is in that post-Super Bowl honeymoon period and that honeymoon period is the 4th quarter! He's going to find a way to win no matter what the situation and no matter how much time is on the clock. The Saints hit their stride with their 4th quarter drive to win on the road in San Fran last week. This is bad timing for an ATL team that is an upper echelon team but still trying to find their stride. A tough stride for Baby Ryan and Yippee-Kiyay Mr. Falcons in the Honeymoon Dome in Nawlins. Saints by 8.

KC +3 vs. SAN FRAN
KC is for real this year. That is, they are improved. Although their coaching staff is straight from the hand-me-downs in the Bill Belicheck section of Value Village, they did assemble a pretty good O-line and a solid defense. They are this season's dog of the year and should go 3-0 ATS after Sunday, with all 3 games as the underdog. San Fran is in disarray in the locker room, and got humbled in Seattle in Week 1 and had the Pillsbury Game of Week last week with their 4 turnovers vs. New Orleans. Most previews are saying "what if San Fran didn't commit 4 T.O's last week?", well the fact of the matter is that they did, and it looks like they're in-fighting will translate to the field again at Arrowhead. QB-wise, I'll take Matt Cassell over Alex "Tragic" Smith everyday of the week and ATS on Sunday!!

DET +11.5 @ MIN
The more I think of this game, the more I might stay away from this game on my ticket. As Bill Simmons says, it's smart to stick to your guns with your early season picks and I was thinking of Detroit covering more spreads this year. Detroit has indeed improved their line-up from last year. But this underdog hunch had a line-up with Matt Stafford at QB and not Shaun Hill. There isn't much faith in a QB named Shaun Hill that was cut to allow Tragic Smith to smear Joe Montana and Steve Young's good legacy at the 'Stick. It may be smart to lay off this dog bet to get one more week of scouting from Detroit, but Brett Favra's weekly series of The Housewives of Minnesota with the coaching staff is compounding the fact that he is 1 year overdue on his carton of milk of a post-GB career. Minnesota should ride the coat tails of AP from here on in, in order to find victories, but Ndamukong Suh and Detroit's D-line may limit AP to a victory under 11.5 points. Vikings by 9.  

DAL @ HOU
STAY AWAY!!!!!! Dallas is the best marketed team in sports, as they have all the headlines and hoopla for an under-.500 team. They do have talent, but are way over-valued. Houston may have hit their stride finally, but last week's comeback victory to salvage a push at Washington solidified the Texans 3 year run as the NFL Jeckyl-n-Hyde team of year. As soon as you think Houston will blow a team out, they blow it, and as soon as you lose faith in the Texans, they dominate and cover the spread by half-time. Stay away from the Texans!!!! They're that flirty tease you tried all your game on in high school and all you got was a measly slow dance to Axel Rose and November Rain. Paulsen and Fouche said stay away and 20 years later, finally I can say, "LESSON LEARNED"

TENN @ NYG
Eli will bounce back, and Chris Johnson has yet to have his breakout Madden-Video-Game stat game. Flip a coin. Gonna stay away from this one.

NE -14.5 vs. BUF
I loved New England in Week 1 as their O-line was dominant vs. the Bengals. But now that they shipped Maroney out of town and Kevin Faulk is out for the year with a torn ACL, the Pats have no running attack to open up the passing attack. Oh, but wait the Bills have no talent, defense or coaching staff to stop Bill Simmons' man-crush on Tom Brady's long hair let alone the air attack from Wes Welker and Randy Moss. Pats by 20.

CLEV +11 @ BAL – Under 37.0 points
Seneca Wallace vs. Joe Flacco? Set the Over-Under at 21 points!!!!!!!  That is a lock bet with the UNDER. Ray Rice may have a bust out game for over 200 yards this week, but even if this happens, the Ravens do a bad job of cashing in drives into the end zone. Ravens 17 Cleveland 9

PIT -3 @ TB – Under 33 Points Josh Freeman is a very under-rated QB for T-Bay, but Pittsburgh's defense is in a different stratosphere then every other defense in the NFL. As a joke 2 blogs ago, I said Pittsburgh was starting their 7th string QB. Now that joke is, in fact, reality. Label this game the Field Goal Bowl!!! Pit 13 TB 6. The lone touchdown for the Steel? A pick six by the defense of course. Freeman will have a solid season and career, and this physical beating he takes from the Steel Curtain will be a tough lesson for the Buccaneer QB.

CIN @ CAR
Odds are to take Cincinnati ATS with rookie QB Jimmie Clausen starting for the Kitties (nice one D$), but Cincinnati is another Houston-type Jeckly-n-Hyde team. I'm staying away, but what the hell: Cin 27 Car 17

WASH -4.5 @ STL
Ride the St Louis Rams road to double-digit spreads up to week 8 or 9. So Wash by 4.5? Deal!!!!

PHI @ JAX
I'm sticking to my guns here, with being a fan and fan alone of Michael Vick's Comeback. His amazing broken play rushes are still a spread killer, but they should cover at a Jacksonville home game with a home crowd that rivals that of a UBC Thunderbird home game. Can you say Black-Out!?!?

IND -6 @ DEN
Peyton is in Tom Izzo Betting Law territory. That is, you don't have to bet for Peyton all the time, but never bet against Peyton. But I may not bet for Peyton this week, as the Mile High mystique helps the Bronc even in their rebuilding year this season.

SD -4.5 @ SEA
game goes for the Qwest Field home field advantage. Pretty Jeckyl-n-hyde for the Shithawks, but SD should cover.

MIA -2.5 vs. NYJ
Typical New York over-hype once again with Coach Ryan and the Fraudchise at QB. Everyone, lets get the chant going: J!!! E!!! T!!! S!!! OVERVALUED!!! OVERVALUED!!! OVERVALUED!!! Plus the Fish defense is SICK!!! SICK!!! SICK!!! Fish by 10.

GB @ CHI
A good test for GB on the road at Soldier Field vs. an over-valued Bear squad that does have not bad stats on Offense. Gonna stay away.

I'll lay some money down on about 10 games, but lets set a 7 game parlay as such:

NO -3.5
KC +3
NE -14.5
Clev/Bal Under 37.0
Pit -3
Was -4.5
Mia -2.5

Gamble! Gamble!!!
CrazyDavo out!!

NCAA Week 4
Alright back with some money making picks for week 4 of the college football schedule.
Let's start in Atlanta where Georgia Tech will host NC State. Looks like year 3 under Jim O'Brien will be the turning point for the Wolfpack who have been impressive with 2 straight SU and ATS wins vs Central Florida and Cincinnati. On the other hand the Yellow Jackets have been inconsistent with an unexplainable straight up loss to Kansas 2 weeks ago.
NC State Jr QB Russel Wilson has 56 TD passes against only 12 interceptions. NC State run defense good enough to get the job done.
This is our "dog of the week" and we like NC State (+8.5) to win straight up vs Tech!

Next the Georgia Bulldogs travel to Mississippi State to take on the other Bulldogs. Both teams 0-2 in conference play and in must win situations. We like Mark Richt to rally the troops and get back on track here. Georgia is 9-0 SU since 1978 in this series and I think they will make it 10.
Take Georgia (PK) over Mississippi State

Next up Southern Miss -3.5 at La-Tech. Southern Miss opened as a 6.5 point favorite in this game and has seen that number fall to just 3.5. Must be a La-Tech alumni meeting in Vegas this week because this one makes no sense. The techsters got lit up in the second half vs Navy last week while Southern Miss was very impressive in a victory over Cincinnati.
We like Southern Miss (-3.5) to keep it rolling as Tech continues to adjust to a new coach and new system.

Finally UNC travels to New Jersey to take on Rutgers. UNC in a world of hurt at 0-2 and still waiting for news on at least 8 suspended players. Despite this the Heels have competed against 2 solid opponents and had a chance to win both games. Meanwhile Rutgers has played inferior opposition and yet has been on the losing side of the stats in both games.
UNC (-2) in a must win game to salvage their season wins at Rutgers.

Other games we like:
Texas has gone from a 21 point favorite to 16 this week. People are over reacting to the UCLA win over Houston last week. Remember they got beat by Stanford at home 35 - 0!
Longhorns (-16)

Purdue is getting good value at home only having to give 11.5 to Toledo.
Take the Boilermakers (-11.5)

Rice is still the darling of bettors after they covered vs Texas to open the season. This is giving great value, Baylor should be favoured by 10 - 12 points in most power rankings and only are giving 7.5.
We will ride the Bears (-7.5)

Good luck to all! NFL picks to come tomorrow.

Jdawg is out!

D$'s NFL Week #3 - Early Takes

If Gus Johnson was calling the Monday Night game tonight he would be yelling 'WHAT A GAME. - HA HAAA'.   Week #2 is officially in the books.  Here is an early look at the lines for Week #3 :

Green Bay (-3) @ Chicago
This is looking like my early lock of the week.  Chicago is over-rated after two 'lucky' wins to start the season and the early vegas line seems to reflect this.  (Should have lost to Lions in Week #1.)  The Packers will be up for this divisional matchup on MNF and I see Cutler throwing a few picks in this game to solid Green Bay defense.   Green Bay 30, Pandas 13.

Buffalo @ New England (-13.5)
Keep betting against the Bills until they prove they can cover.  Best to get this one before the line moves past a key number like 14.  The Patriots will be motivated after a loss in Week #2 against the Jets and will use this week to get back on track.  The Bills have already given up on Trent Edwards and going with Ryan Fitzpatrick this week as starter.    Bills 10,  Patriots 44.

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-10.5),  Total 37
Both offenses have really struggled to start this season.  The Browns defense is not terrible and should keep this one from being a 30 point blowout so lean on the UNDER in this one.  Check the weather report before locking this up.  Browns 3, Ravens 16

Cinncinatti (-3) @ Carolina
Carolina is a bad football team - rookie QB Clausen is already their new starter.  The Bengals are not terrible, so grab the -3 before this line moves up if you can.   Bengals 23  Kitties 9

Detriot (+10.5) @ Minnesota
Minnesota offense has not looked good except for AP.  Their only TD last week was off a Ricky Williams fumble inside the 5 yard line.  The Lions have played well both weeks.  Not saying they win this game, but gotta like the 10+ points getting here as the Leos have covered their first two games.  Note:  if Vikings land Vincent Jackson in a trade, then might revise this prediction, so watch this line as the week progresses.    Minnesota 23  Lions 17

Cowboys @ Houston (-3)
With a win over the Colts in Week #1 and a 17 point comeback victory in Week #2, the Texans have  me that convinced that they are legit this year and should be a playoff team.  The Cowboys are in disarray coming into Houston.  I can't see the Texans taking them lightly and the popularity of the Cowboys has this line at -3 which means vegas has these team even, which they clearly are NOT.   Cowboys 17, Texans 30

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Tampa Bay  (Total 34)
Vegas knows that there isn't going to be many points in this game, but keep an eye on this one none-the-less as Pittsburgh has got its 4th string QB in play and their defense is amazing.    Penguins 6,  Lightning 3

Last of the early takes.  Keep an eye on the UNDER for the Washington @ St. Louis (Total 38) and Oakland @ Arizona (Total 40) games too.

D$'s Week #2 Recap

A little better this week.  Best bets were 2-1-1 thanks to a nice (and pleasantly surprising) Houston comeback.  Impressive showings by Atlanta and Green Bay as predicted.  Tennesse managed to turn the ball over 7 times and still have a shot to tie it up at the end with Kerry Collins at QB.  Wow

Kicking myself a little bit as bad teams playing each other are good UNDER plays.  The KAN @ CLE, TB @ CAR, and STL @ OAK games were all examples of that this week!  Easy money.  Com'mon Man!

This has D$ already looking at the UNDER for the following Week #3 matchups:  PIT @ TB, CLE @ BAL, OAK @ ARI, and NYJ @ MIA.  Teams that haven't put up to many points this year.

2010 NFL Record ATS :  14-15-3,   Best Bets :  5-4-1

D$'s NFL Week #2 Best Bets

After a .500 start to the season, it's time to pick it up a notch.  A deeper look at the Week #2 games was needed, and I'm looking to get hot this week with my picks.  D$ is FIRED UP!

Bill Simmons had a good column this week talking about learning lessons from Week #1.  The key is not to overreact to just one week of action as this is truly a league where on 'any given Sunday' anyone can win.  You are not going to be right 90% of the time against the spread - that would be awesome - but by watching the games you can get a sense if you were on the 'right' track with your predictions or completely off base.  If you handicap games correctly and monitor the line to get the best price during the week, then more often than not, you are gonna be successful over the long run.

The Monday Night game was a classic example.  The Chargers played against a fired up Chiefs crowd, terrible weather, got burnt on some flukey special teams plays, and still had a chance to tie the game in the final seconds.  The Chargers are the better team in the game - if it goes 5 quarters the Chargers win for sure - but the Chiefs won in a perfect storm of factors working against the Chargers.  Lessons learned:  the Chiefs are better than last year, but don't overhype them too much yet.  The Chargers are a typically slow starting team which isn't as bad as you think.

Best Bets for Week #2:

Atlanta (-7) vs Arizona
I am still a believer in the Falcons - at least for one more week.  The Steelers defense is probably one of the top 3 in the league again and the Cardinals will be a lot easier team to play against for the dirty birds.  The Falcons are a good team at home, and will be very motivated coming off a close loss.  Derek Anderson already has Larry Fitzgerald rolling his eyes with accuracy issues, and Beanie Wells might not play with an injury.  I see the Falcons winning big here.   Arizona 10,  Falcons 38

Green Bay (-13.5) vs Buffalo
This one should be a lay up.  In most power rankings out there the Packers are a top three team and the Bills are a bottom three.  Unless the Packers don't take this game seriously this should be men vs boys.  Bills should be 0-2 and 14 games away from being able to take Locker with #1 overall.  Bills 3,  Packers 42


New England (-3) @ New York Jets
Until The Shanchise proves me wrong, I will continue to bet against the Jets.  The Patriots hate the Jets and will be motivated to play well in the New Meadowlands stadium.  A motivated Randy Moss was shut down by Revis island last year and he may catch a break as Revis has a reported minor hamstring injury.  The game should stay close until the half, but the Patriots are going to have the Jets defense on the field for a lot of the game and should have them worn down by the fourth quarter.    Patriot 27,  Jets 10

Houston (-3) @ Washington
If this game was held in a couple weeks the line could easily be Houston by -7 or -9 here.  The Redskins did not score an offensive TD in their game against the Cowboys. The Texans have a pretty good defense too and the Redskins aren't going to get a whole lot more production this week.  Washington does have a good defense, which should keep this game close for awhile, but I'm a believer in the Texans and only giving up 3 points here is a steal this early in the season.   Houston 24,  Washington 9

I am also becoming a fan of the UNDER in the St. Louis vs Oakland (37.5) & Kansas City vs Cleveland (37.5) games.


Stay Away Games:  

Bears @ Cowboys (-7.5)

What I also learned from the Cowboys and Redkins game was the Cowboys offense is struggling to score points early in the season and the Cowboys defense, especially their front four,  is solid. The Redskins pulled off the upset of the Cowboys in Week 1, but mostly because of bad coaching by Wade Phillips to end the 1st half and having a banged up O-line.  The O-line is getting healthier this week and the Cowboys will be motivated at home not wanting to be 0-2 in the tough NFC East.

The Bears bearly won their game against... wait for it... the Lions.  If Calvin Johnson holds onto the ball at the end of the game, the Bears would have lost.  This is not a good football team.  They turned the ball over 4 times and didn't look that great against the Lions backup QB. 

The reason the game is a stay away is because of the number of points the Cowboys are being asked to give up.  If it drops to -7, then I would consider playing the Cowboys here - so watch the line on Sunday morning as it has dropped 1.5 points since it opened.  More than a touchdown is a little dicey right now for the Cowboys to cover until they get their offense rolling, but there is no way I am backing a team with Jay Cutler at QB.

New Orleans (-6) @ San Francisco
After the terrible performance in Week #1, I can't trust the 49ers at all.  This is a game they should be super fired up to play - might need to watch this one closely and take notes for the rest of season bets.

Plus a few other games too close to call or involving team I just can't trust :
Seattle (+3) @ Denver
Miami (+6) @ Minnesota
Baltimore (-3) @ Cinncinatti


Kick-off in about 12 hours... more updates to follow.

Mexican Reporter Ines Sainz and the Jets Controversy

The Jets have had no problem staying in the news.  Coach Rex Ryan has created a lot of 'swagger' after an unexpected playoff run this past season.  An off season including 'Hard Knocks', the Revis holdout, losing stud DT Jenkins in Week 1, and now a controversy involving Mexican TV Reporter - Ines Sainz.

Ms. Sainz is an extremely attractive Mexican TV reporter who made news with allegation of being sexually harassed by the Jets at practice this past Saturday.  A quick google search shows that this is no average sports reporter and it has been interesting to see every ones reactions.  She has made her rounds on CBC, ABC, Fox and few other stations over the past few days. Follow this link to see more about this story:
http://video.foxnews.com/v/4337751/ny-jets-reporter-tells-her-story/

My early line move of the week has been the Patriots (-3) @ the Jets.  Before The Sanchise stunk up the joint on Monday Night Football this line opened at EVEN in some books. 
A poor MNF game, plus the news of stud DT Jenkins tearing his ACL for a second time (feel bad for that dude) and a dominate performance by the Patriots in Week #1 has moved the line a lot here.  If you weren't able to get the EVEN, then strongly consider -3 before the line moves any more.  (D$ was able to get this at Patriots (-2) last night.  Bill Simmons had this as his lock of the week on his Tuesday podcast when picking lines with cousin Sal.  Hope this BS homer jinx doesn't come into play here.

Some other interesting lines moves to ponder. 

The Saints went from being 4.5 point favourites to 6 point favourites against the 49ers for the Monday night game. The 49ers are a motivated home dog getting nearly a touchdown - might be worth a look as we get closer to game night to see where the line settles.

The Lions have now become a 6 point dog after opening up +4 against the Eagles.  Stafford is out which added points to the line and Vick will be the starter for Philly.  Still can't decide on a side here so we might have another stay away game.

More picks and takes coming soon.  D$ Out.

Crazy Davo Checks in For Another Sadistic NFL Season. Thank You Week 1!!

The NFL is back and the sadistic nature of Sundays are back for the next 5 months. The sadistic nature of betting we put ourselves through on countless game changing moments affecting spreads like the stale jam I put on my PB&J last week. But like the many PB&J’s made for my lunch, those bets and those samiches make us degenerate gamblers feel alive!!!!

DET 19 @ CHI 14

Case in point, Calvin freaking Johnson. Bottom line is those who had an inclination on the Detroit Lions to cover the +240 moneyline were downright robbed by Calvin “and Hobbs” Johnson on his soft catch at the end of their game at Chicago with no time on the clock. This TD was called back by the black and white rule that he must come back up with the ball after catching it. It’s a brutal rule, but the ref’s made the right call in enforcing that effing rule. In losing big money on this call reversal is on Calvin, as he should know the rule, his coaches should know the rule, and Calvin should have just tucked that ball into his body and fell to ground. Do not victimize yourself Detroit Lions fan!!! Calvin effed up and cost us huge money.

And this blogger will not victimize himself on this moneyline bet as moneyline is the seductress devil in the red dress. Stick to the spreads Adolph!!!! The Lions indeed covered, and another reason why the Lions are no victims in that something was shining on them with their goal line stand on 4^th and goal by Chicago as well as stopping da Bears 2-point conversion in their last TD. These 2 helped cover the 6.5 point spread.

So what’s the end-of-the 80’s sitcom lesson learned here? NO MONEYLINE!!!!!!! Stay away from this seemly seductress!!!!!

<sigh> Cue in future blogs and bets where sexy moneyline bets of +200 are made. Damn this sadistic degenerate gambling running though my veins!!!


CIN 24 @ NE 34

The Pats are back. Brady is Brady. He’s now back due to a healthy knee and a revamped O-line. They downright dominated the trenches yesterday vs. the 2009 Soft Knocks Bengals. Brady had all day to pass and the running back committee had gaping holes to run through. Add the YAC Attack of those running backs and Wes Welker, and you have a dominating offense.

They shouldn’t be distracted about Randy Moss going Randy Moss in his post-game press conference. His comments last night after the game regarding that, in a “business sense” he probably won’t be a Pat next year. This is no shock these days. All athletes will bicker through the media due to having no contract extensions while playing the last year of their contract. The bottom line is that everybody has insecurities when it comes to work uncertainty. And it looks like Moss is playing the “game” through the media to a tee. The guy has to maximize his worth for that next contract, so it seems like he is genuinely disgruntled due to “not feeling wanted” by the Pats, but the question comes to surface, is part of this disgruntlement due to the fact that he may know that he’s not the best receiver in the league, let alone his own team?

As much as Moss’ body language will be full of moping and feeling sorry for himself on the sidelines this year, he will make plays, and the Pats will cover week in and week out.

GB 27 @ PHI 20

Cue the QB controversy! Michael Vick should and will eventually be the starting QB for the Eagles. But as entertaining as Vick is, he IS NOT an elite quarterback. He is AN ELITE FOOTBALL PLAYER. Mike will win games by his athleticism, and if he has a breakout year, this has to be considered one the greatest comebacks in history. He did a horrible thing. He paid his dues, and if he resurrects his career, then all credit to Vick.

But his stat lines on incredible games during his career, including last night, have him running over 100 yards while throwing under 200 yards. His plays on those rushes will be amazing drawn up plays but also amazing broken plays. The one dimensionality of his attack with no airness will catch up to him. Vick will win games on his own, but the clock will strike midnight eventually.

Until then, Vick will fill up the highlight films and affect spreads left and right. Consider this degenerate gambler a fan only of Vick; I will stay away from Eagles games. Betting against the spread is too risky on those unpredictable broken plays. But, when Vick is taking snaps under center, you better believe I’ll be watching and waiting for amazing to happen.

SF @ SEA

Boy did we all get fooled by both Seattle and San Fran.

Seattle got lucky off tips and INT’s off of a horrible Alex Smith. The team that wins the horrible NFC West will have be the biggest NFL Playoff home underdog in history. +15.5 points anyone?

OK, so these takes will get me through the huge beats from Week One. I gotta recharge my one dimensionality betting batteries. Is one dimensionality even a word? Will Adolph stay away from the moneyline bets?

Probably not. Bring on Week 2!!!!
CrazyDavo out.

Sunday Games Review

The morning and afternoon games are now in the books with some mixed results. First the good... 

We were right on the money about the Miami (-3) winning ugly today in a low scoring (read: UNDER) affair.  From the quick look ins on the games, the Bills as expected have an under-rated defense but an atrocious offence.  Not sure what to think of the Fish yet.

Det (-6.5) covered against the Bears.  The Lions got robbed by the refs at the end of the game and could have won outright.  The Lions defense has improved a lot with a better front four, but this was close game because of four Bears turnovers.  Cause of concern for the Lions will be the long term health of Stafford who left just before the first half with a shoulder injury.

GB (-3) took awhile to get rolling, played welll in the second half.  With Kolb out with a concussion for the second half, Michael Vick played the second half. Green Bay has lots of room for improvement - hopefully Ryan Grant is not out long.

Now for the bad:

IND (-2).  It looks like the Texans are legit this year, as they dominated the Colts in almost all aspects of the game and will be moving up in the power rankings.  Big games by Arian Foster, Matt Shaub, and Mario Williams.  There may be a power shift happening this year in the AFC South.

ATL (-2.5) kept it close throughout against a very tough Pittsburgh defense.  The Steelers could be legit when Big Ben is back for Week #5.   Will be hitting the UNDER hard in week #3 when they play the Bucs.

SFO (-3) easily our worst call of the week.  As Jdawg mentioned during the game, Mike Singletary should be the first ever coach fired after the first game of the season.  The Seahawks are a bit better than I thought, but this game doesn't mean they are good.  Will probably stay away from both teams until I see more.

D$'s NFL 2010 Record : 7-7-2 ATS,   Best Bets 3-3-0

NFL Week 1 Picks and Takes

Ohhhhh man…..it’s been a long off season filled with inappropriate QB news and under-rated news regarding the upcoming NFL work stoppage. People….after this season, the richest, most popular sport in the Western World (beat it soccer!!!) is going to be heading up the well known creek without a means of propulsion!! Strike, Lockout, whatever!!!! The NFL landscape is in for a world of hurt.

So we mine as well take advantage of this final season window to make some money with a bit of take here and there…..so here goes:

LAY-UP BETS

These games are great picks; Easy lay-ups in fact. But like a Dave Adolph lay-up attempt on the hard wood, it’s not always a guarantee.

MIA Tuna -3 @ BUF. The Bills are brutal. Brutal QB and brutal market where the owner doesn’t want to play in anymore. B-Lo is this years Detroit/Oakland who by the way, are in for a resurgence. Detroit and Oakland aren’t going to pull a Lazerus-type come back, but they will have a 7-9 win season this year. So bet heavy money on Oakland and Detroit in these first few weeks while the money’s hot.

ATL -2 @ PITT. Easy money as Pittsburgh is using their 7^th string QB in their season opener on Sunday. There 1^st,4^th and 6^th stringers are on suspensions for various NFL conduct policy mishaps from this past summer, such as cornering a young co-ed between the proverbial rock and a combined 800-lb bodyguard detail hard place. Ben is too busy working his PR game, rather then his 3-step drop. He’ll take longer to get back to speed then Tom Brady’s ACL injury from 2 years ago.

DET +6.5 @ CHI. Detroit will improve this year. The +240 moneyline bet looks quite sexy as well. Many fantasy league GM’s have already learned the downfalls of relying on stiffs such as Matt Forte and Jay Cutler. Matt Stafford will improve. His bust out year this year will be as a bust out towards a solid NFL career. It won’t be the 2^nd coming of Tom Brady, or even

Jason Street

for that matter, but throwing to Calvin Johnson won’t hurt. But settle down as, Calvin is no Boobie Miles either. But let us win some big cheddar on Detroit for these first few weeks.

LOCKS

These games are National Geographic Lockdown Locks!!!!

IND -2 @ HOU. Houston’s supposed to bust out this year? That is so 2006!!! If they haven’t already then they never will. Texans, the Colts have 2 words for ya: A Pissed off Peyton Manning!!!!!! I mean, losing his last game in February, plus only being favored by 2 points in the home opener!?!?!?

GB -3 @ PHI. Green Bay is the “sexy pick” this year. That’s the new SI Cover-Jinx. Green Bay will have their 12-13 win season followed by their undoing in the NFC title game. Too much pressure for Aaron Rodgers, but they will cover this week vs. the rebuilding Eagles. You talk about pressure? Try being Kevin “Corn on the” Kolb when he throws his first INT late in the 1st quarter. Philly Fan will be on Cornrow Kolb!!!! That’s more pressure this week then Rodgers’ Super Bowl expectations pressure. So this week, the Pack cover!!

SF -3 @ SEA. See Vegas Whale’s perfectly articulated breakdown.

Good luck, and hurry up Sunday!!!!!!!

CrazyDavo out!

D$'s NFL Week #1 Best Bets - Part 2

Congrats to Jdawg who is now 3 for 3 picking winners on NCAA Thursday night football this season.  We will keep this momentum rolling into the weekend.

Nice to see some REAL NFL action on Thursday night.  Garrett Hartley probably cost gamblers millions with his two shank-apotomos FG efforts which would have sealed the game for those who had the Saints!

In addition to a strong love for the 49ers, D$ has three other best bets for Week #1:

Miami (-3) @ Buffalo.

I realize it's only Week #1, but this is a key game for the Dolphins.  The schedule makers were not kind to the fish with games against Minnesota, Jets, New England, & Green Bay afterwards.  They really need to win or face a real possibility of being 0-5 to start the season.  i.e. game over.

Miami does have trouble playing in Buffalo, but the Bills are possibly the worst team in the league and barring a Henne meltdown, they should take care of business here.  NOTE:  I am starting to like the UNDER 38.5 for this contest.  Dolphins offensive has been shakey in the pre-season and Bills secondary is their only strength so the score shouldn't be too much of a blowout.

Fish 17  Bills 13


Atlanta (-2) @ Pittsburgh

No Big Ben for Pittsburgh - sometimes it just that easy.  Pittsburgh will try to get to 2-2 by the time he is back in week 5, but 1-3 could happen as only Tampa in Week #3 is a weaker opponent for them.  I'm feeling that Atlanta is a bit underrated and should take care of business this week.

Atlanta 24  Steelers 13


Colts (-2) @ Houston

Every year we keep hearing 'this is the year' for Houston.  Houston is 1-13 lifetime against the Colts.  Peyton Manning just wins games, and we like that we don't have to give 7 points this week when taking them.

Colts 31  Texans 28


D$'s Teaser of Week:
It feels like a road show, but my 7 game teaser this week includes my best bets: the 49ers (+4), Dolphins (+4), Falcons (+4.5), and Colts (+5).  To round out the Teaser, give me Green Bay +4, and I like the Lions +14 and Carolina +14 to cover their games.   Good Luck on Sunday!

Thursday Night Football Picks
We went 2 for 2 last week with our Thursday night picks as both Minnesota and Iowa State were winners for us. We will try and match that this week.

Lots of money is being bet on Mississippi State after there impressive win over Memphis last week. The line opened at -3.5 for Auburn and has come down a full 2 points to -1.5. We think that Auburn is a legitimate contender to win the SEC West this year and to do that they must win this game. They have an explosive offensive led by 6'6 super athlete QB Cam Newton, a Florida transfer who was being groomed to take over for Tim Tebow before running into some trouble with law.

The Tigers crushed Mississippi State last year racking up 390 rushing yards. We look for much of the same although it will be a much tighter contest with the Bulldog fans in a frenzy for a Thursday night game.

Statement game for the Tigers they win 38 -30.

Well the moment we have waited for! The first meaningful NFL game of 2010. A lot of hype goes into this Thursday night game with the defending Champion New Orleans Saints raising the banner in the Superdome, the very symbol of tragedy during Hurricane Katrina.

Angles are not everything but it is hard to overlook the 10 - 0 SU and 7 - 2 -1 ATS record of defending Super Bowl champs in season opening games! This has me leaning Saints, but more than anything Brett Favre has not looked sharp and I am really questioning how motivated he is to be playing this year. Line value isn't great(-5.5) but we think the Saints will ride the emotion and beat a Vikings team that has a lot of questions.

Saints 31 - Vikes 20.

D$'s NFL Week #1 Best Bets

San Francisco -3 @ Seattle

The Pete Carroll era in Seattle kicks off on Sunday, & heaven help them! 

In the past two weeks the Hawks :

1) Let go of their leading receiver from last year.  Housh cost them $15 million for 1 year of service (note to self:  I need me a job like that!),
2) Lost their offensive line coach as he suddenly retired,   and....
3) Their stud first round OT (Okung) is injured and out for week #1.
I see Hasslebeck running for his life or heading to the bench for some advil!

I like what San Francisco did in the offseason, using their two first round picks to shore up their O-line and having Crabtree for a full training camp is only going to make him even better this year.  Their QB isn't stellar, but should be able to turn around and hand off the ball to Gore and Westbrook for some old school Mike Singletary smashmouth football.

Seattle's home record the past two seasons, 6-10.  12th Man - meh, this team is in full rebuild mode now.  Only having to give up three points is kinda nice here - suspect later in the year this game would open at -7 in favour of the niners.

Take the favourite.  49ers 31  Seahawks 10


More to come... strong feelings towards the Dolphins (-3), Lions (+7), and Colts (-2) this week.

NFL Opening Night This Thursday!!

Are you ready for some football?  The pre-season is finally over and teams get to strap on their pads for real starting Thursday night with the Saints hosting the Vikings in a rematch of January's NFC title game on NBC.  (5:30pm PST)  

Heavy betting action already towards the Saints with the Line opening up at 4.5 in their favour which has quickly moved to 5.5 today.  The line move is meaningless as does not cross a key number of 4 or 7, but D$ sees an aging Favre, a depleted Vikings receiving corps (no Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin limited with migranes, and Bernard Berrinan looking average in the pre-season), and the Saints home crowd as some solid reasons to back New Orleans.

From a betting prospective the only thing that has me a bit concerned about the Saints in the intangibles as they will be receiving their super bowl rings and playing a motivated Vikings squad who wants to avenge an OT January loss.  The Saints are the better team here, but will they come out and play like it?

The over/under has also dropped from an open of 51 to a current 48.  Will the two gun-slinger QBs rack up points with their offenses?  Not sure yet...
More analysis on this game and other NFL Week #1 picks throughout the week.

FYI - The season kicks off in style with Taylor Swift performing in the kickoff concert before the game!

Alright we got the season off to a good start on Thursday night with 2 winner. Here are our Saturday college football picks for week 1:

Northwestern -5 @ Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is coming off a 2-10 season and have had plenty of problems in fall camp with Coach Bobby Johnson leaving. It doesn't help they only return 1 linemen on each side of the ball. Northwestern is a well tested road team who have covered 8 of their last 9 road games. Wildcats should dominate 34-15.

Purdue +11 @ Notre Dame
High expectations for new Irish coach Brian Kelly. Domers offense should remain solid despite the loss of Jimmy Clause, however their defense remains a huge question mark. The number here seems to indicate the public is buying into the hype at South Bend, not us we like the Boiler Makers to cove this one. Notre Dame 24 Purdue 20.

Tulsa -8.5 @ East Carolina
The Pirates have lost the most starters of any team in the nation and their head coach Skip Holtz. Tulsa struggled last season but we expect their offense to return to previous form in this game and dominate a very young and inexperienced team 42 - 17.

Oklahoma State -16 vs Washington State.
This is simple we don't think the Cowboys are as good as they have been in the past, but simply put the Washington State Cougers are one of if not the worst team in the FBS. Another blow out to add to their sad sack resume 47 - 10.

Dog of the Week - Washington Huskies +5 @ BYU
Our dog of the week this week is the Dawgs from Washington. 10 returning starters on offense head into Provo to take on BYU. The Cougers have lost a number of starters including their top QB and RB. The Huskies go on the road and start their road back to respectability with a 27 - 20 win.

Good luck and next we add the NFL to our picks of the week!

Well we have waited 8 months for tonight, the return of college football! On Friday I will come out with my best bets and dog of the week picks for the weekend, but to wet the apatite here are a couple of recommendations for Thursday nights games:

The Minnesota @ Middle Tennessee State game has shifted 7 points since the suspension of Middle Tennessee's QB Dwight Dasher who was the 7th in the nation in total offense last season. You might remember him last running rough shot over the Southern Miss D in the New Orleans Bowl.
We think the odds makers had this wrong to begin with when they installed Middle Tennessee as a favorite. Minnesota is on a 10 -2 ATS run in their last 12 openers while Middle Tennessee is a dreadful 3-11 ATS in their openers since 1996.
Take the Golden Gophers -3

Northern Illinois travels to Ames to take on the Iowa State Cyclones. Iowa State has a veteran offense led by running back Alex Robinson (1194 YR in 2009) and Quarterback Austen Arnaud. Northern Illinois will contend for MAC title this year but the last time we saw them in the now defunct International Bowl they were dominated by South Flordia 27 - 3.
We have a fairly small number here and suspect that Iowa State will take care business at home.
Take the Cyclones -5

Check back Friday night for our Best Bets and Dog of the week. You can also follow us on twitter @jdawgsbestbets.

D$'s NFL Season Win Totals

Listening to the B.S. report and reading Chad Millman articles has D$ diving into a new topic - NFL Season Win Totals. The Vegas sharps put up totals in April and here are 5 teams that stuck out at me:


Bills : 5 Wins
This has to be easily one of the worst teams in the NFL this year. Even if you believe the C.J. Spiller hype, this team has maybe the worst offensive line in football, no quarterback, and play in the the AFC East which has potentially three playoff teams. A quick check of their schedule shows road games against the Packers, Vikings, Raven, and the Bengals - hard to imagine them winning any of those games or finishing better than 1-5 in their division. At best, they win 6 games, but more likely 4 or less. Bills fans should watch lots of Washington Huskies games this year to get a preview at their future QB - Jake Locker - who they will be taking with the first overall pick in the 2011 draft. Take the UNDER 5 wins (-120) .

Arizona : 7.5 Wins
Curt Warner retires and already the team has shown that they have no confidence that Matt Leinart can win any games for them in the pre-season. The Derek Anderson era is now upon us in Arizona. The NFC West is probably the weakest division in all of football, but winning eight games seems like a big stretch to me. Take the UNDER 7.5 wins (-105)

Tampa : 5.5 Wins
Youngest team in football. Maybe 3 players on the roster over the age of 30. They won three games last year. Do you really think that one draft is going to allow them to double their win total in 2010? I like their QB Freeman, but he got banged up in the pre-season, and this team is at least a year or two away from respectability. GIve me the UNDER 5.5 (+105)

Philladelphia : 8.5 Wins
Count me as another person who believes in Kevin Kolb and the Eagles offense. Kolb has some great weapons to throw the ball to and LeSean McCoy is decent running back. The NFC East is shaping up to be pretty tight division - but this really feels like a 9-7 or 10-6 team. Give me the OVER 8.5 Wins (+115)

Jets : 9.5 Wins
I am not believing the hype with this team at all. They have a very good defense that will keep them in a lot of games, but I don't like their QB at all. This team got lucky and barely squeaked into the playoffs last year because Peyton Manning and the Colts decided not to play the last two games of the regular season last year. If Revis holds out for any length of time coupled with injuries to Calvin Pace at LB, and depending on LT for production - this team looks more like 8-8 to me than 10-6. Give me the UNDER 9.5 Wins (-110)

Random Thoughts:
The NFC North has some interesting picks. Green Bay OVER 9.5 Wins looks mighty nice but the odds are now -190. Not much value there. Same goes with Minnesota UNDER 9.5 with odds at -160.

One last team to keep an eye on is the Cowboys who statistically have the toughest schedule in the league this year. With a few injuries in the pre-season to their O-line, it seems like it will be a big stretch for them to get to 11 wins.  The UNDER 10 Wins at EVEN money is worth a deeper look.