Out of the basement!

Jake Locker leads UW
Huskies to first bowl win
since 2002!

Huskies Win..... Huskies Win..... Huskies Win! 

That's right folks, time for the easy covers staff to get out of the basement and start cashing in on games again.  We got tons of action at the moment with Bowl Season, NFL Week #17, NHL, and some NBA happening.  Hard to keep up!

Bowl season is all about motivation.  Some teams are super happy at the opportunity to play an extra game and others become disspointed they are in a lesser bowl and not the BCS show.  Congrats to the Washington Huskies who were definitely motivated tonight to win their first bowl game in almost a decade.  They easily covered the 14 point spread against an unmotivated #14 Nebraska.  Some money to be had out there with the Dawgs being +390 ML in this matchup - woooo-eeeee that is some good odds!

Early takes for NFL Week #17 follow in line with Bowl season.  Certain teams will be motivated to win this week than others.  See Colts, Rams, Steelers, Ravens, Bucs, Packers, and Giants in order to make playoffs or improve their seeding.  More to follow.....

Outta the Basement: Purdue @ Michigan

It’s been a while since the last College Hoops blog. The Insanity Report Staff and Easycovers Crew have been hard at work with their work in the basement, and it starts with yesterday afternoon’s Big Ten opener for Purdue and Michigan. So here goes:

(11) PURDUE 80 @ MICHIGAN 57

MICHIGAN

Solid nucleus for the future, but right now, their focus is on the abilities of Sophomore PG Darius Morris who has had a great non-conference start to the season, but yesterday looked like he has started to believe his own news clippings. He penetrates too much and forces bad shots and bad highlight passes for TO’s. He suffers from the same dribblitis that Illinois’ Demetri McCamey suffered last year. He’ll dribble east-west too much allowing the defense time to recover and shut down any passing/driving lanes.

They have OK shooting from Junior PG, Stu Douglass and Freshman Forward, Evan Smotrycz, but that’s it from Smotrycz; He’s a horrible one-on-one defender on the wing and will fall asleep leaving his man open. When his check is E’Twaun Moore, it doesn’t bode well for the Wolverines. At 6-9 the dopy Smotrycz offers zero defensive rebounding presence as well. It’s no surprise that Smo-trash fouled out yesterday. Stu Douglass is smooth and is Michigan’s most leveling presence which is key for such a young team, and hopefully Morris.

Redshirt Freshman, Jordan Morgan at 6-8 is a hustling post, but he must gain some l.b.’s to be able to consistently compete in the Big Ten. One of the main returning players in terms of minutes played last year in Junior Forward, Zach Novak, gets tonnes of minutes this year again, but he is as useless as the kid on Two and a Half Men! Novak offers no offensive upside at all and he basically fills the 5th spot on the floor so Michigan doesn’t go Hickory Huskers like when Merle fouls out. (“My team’s on the floor!)

Again, Michigan has some prospects in their freshmen class, but every one of their starters show major defensive deficiencies. Such as in Freshman Guard, Tim Hardaway Jr, who shows signs that he can get on an offensive streak, but shows UNC-like basketball IQ on defense. Michigan will have great streaky moments this year and may steal a game or two, but their inexperience will show when they’re trying to get over the hump and take over a game from one of their mini-streaks.


(11) PURDUE

Tough on Purdue to replace the versatility and basketball IQ of Robbie Hummel, once they lost him for the season with his ACL injury in the preseason. Even with him the biggest weakness for Purdue was their depth. Now that the Big 3 is no more with the loss of Hummel, it’s up to the Big Two in Senior Center, JuJuan Johnson and Senior Guard, E’Twaun Moore. The Big Two delivered yesterday with 21 and 22 point performances respectively.

Starting the game vs. Michigan, they were successful keying off double teams on Johnson and Moore as well as mismatches off of switches to get open looks for Johnson and Moore. Inclusion of other starters like DJ Byrd and Ryne Smith were non existent as Byrd was exposed on defense as well; Smith woke up late in the 1st half, and all of 2nd half to hit some open treys off dribble penetrations for a career high 17 points..

JuJuan Johnson is a huge one-on-one threat in the post coming off of those switches for mismatches and cutting towards the ball, receiving those passes in stride. He is pretty much unstoppable once he receives a pass with both feet in the paint. But he gets John Starks-like hot-and-cold streaks on his touches outside of the paint.

Moore will get his looks on open treys and he’ll be able to create drives to the hoop, IF Purdue keeps their motion offense based around the heavy screening and mismatches attained from those screens. Purdue just doesn’t have the depth to rely on other players creating their own shots or taking the opposing defense’s attention away from Moore and Johnson. They’ll need a shooter to take pressure off the Big Two like they got out of Ryne Smith tonight.

Purdue’s half court defense is solid, especially with the big body of Johnson in the middle. He’s quick enough to drop down help side on baseline drives, and has the length to alter shots. But DJ Byrd is as slow on switching and recovering off of defensive rotations as Dave Adolph is at getting Martin Short jokes. He gave up way too many open 3’s today from Evan Smotrycz. It was the battle of the 2 worst defenders on the court today.

The key for Purdue is to hide their lack of depth by working the shot clock to develop the mismatches and open lanes/looks for Johnson and Moore. Both are great free throw shooters as well, so this half-court spread should get both of the Big 2 to the line for easy points (i.e. Johnson was 10-10 from the charity stripe last night). They need those throws to limit the beatings they’ll be taking from gauntlet that is the Big Ten schedule. On D, they just have to keep doing what they’re doing and bench DJ Byrd!!!

Don’t let the score fool you, Michigan was in this game for the first 40 minutes with their peskyness, but Purdue Head Coach, Matt Painter showed many looks on offense to free up The Big Two. Painter and Purdue should ruffle some feathers in the Big Ten this year, but for Dean Smith’s sake, stay healthy!!!!

NFL Week 15 - The Week of the Quaterback

So many QB stories this week.  Which leads us to our 5 best bets heading into kickoff:

McNabb can't wait for season to end

Washington @ Dallas (-7)
That smug look on Donavan McNabb's face (to the right) says it all.  Rex Freaking Grossman is the starting QB for the Redskins.  Enough said.  Redskins 17  Dallas 35

New Orleans (Pk) @ Baltimore
After the Monday night game, not so sure anymore about the Ravens.  The Saints are hot so let's keep riding them!   Saints 33  Ravens 30

Detriot (+6) @ Tampa Bay.
Too many injuries for the Bucs after last week.  This will be a close game with the Lions having a chance to finally snap their road losing streak.

Atlanta (-7) @ Seattle.
If the Falcons are motivated they should be able to take care of busines here before their big showdown against New Orleans new week.  Falcons 31  Seahawks 20

Chicago (-7) @ Minnesota
Third string QB for Minnesota as we play this game in the outdoor stadium of the Minnesota Golden Gopher.  Bears 20  Vikings 6

Good luck this week.

NFL Week 14 - The Week of the Backdoor Cover

Week #14: AKA the Back Door Cover

Week #14 of the NFL Season definitely has a theme to it.  That theme:  The Back Door Cover.

Twice this week we got burned by some rather tragic back door covers on our picks.  First of course was one of the all time worst ever in the Colts game on Thursday.  (See our earlier post from Saturday on that one.)  But then there were a couple more.

The Redskins, who were +2 dogs at kickoff vs the Bucs were down a touchdown with only seconds left in their game.  To their Credit the Redskins had dominated the game, running all over the Bucs Defense and should have been ahead as FG kicker Gano shanked a few field goals in the game.   The Redskins somehow magically find a way to drive down for the tying TD with 9 seconds left and are an extra point away from a tie game.  Betters on the Bucs were hoping for OT and a potential cover in OT.... only to have the Redskins botch to PAT and the Bucs win by 1.  No Cover.  Exteremely fustrating for bettors. The Redskins are a bad team, but the Bucs got a lot of injuries now and will have trouble covering games the rest of the year.

With gambling gods really against us this week and kicking us with two tragic back-door covers, my Monday night pick of Baltimore -3 had me absolutely messed up.  The Ravens were up the entire game.  Much like the Colts, they were up 21 points at one point, but didn't manage the clock well either down the stretch .  Down 8 with 2 minutes left, the Ravens somehow allowed the Texans to tie this game up with 20 seconds left.   (Note to Ravens: run the ball on 3rd and 2 with 2:50 left and you might not have needed OT!  You run cthe lock at least or maybe pick up the first down!) 

Fortunately the 2-point convert worked for the Texans to get the game into OT.  Matt Shaub then bailed us out and threw a pick-6 for a touchdown to the Ravens.  The dissapointment/shock on the Texans and their fans was obvious, but we were happy.  Preventing a third straight demoralizing back-door cover from almost killing us.  The gambling gods finally took pity after a beat down weekend.

Be thankful for a bit of Monday night magic, regroup and get ready to bring it strong for Week #15.  Lines to be studied tomorrow.  D$ Out.

NFL Weather the story of Week #14

Metrodome on Sunday morning

Looks like Brett Favre may have played his last game at the Metrodome.   20+ Inches of snow has falled in Minnesota and caused the roof to collapse (see right).   Just announced that they will be playing the game on Monday night at 7:20EST in Detriot at Ford Field. (Fox).  Gotta think next week's MNF game gets moved too.

Favre has gone on record saying that he could not have played today if the game had happened, and the streak of 298 straight starts looks to be over as 30 hours more preparation isn't going to be enought to get him ready for tomorrow's game.

Both teams will be sluggish with extra travel and being taken out of their routines.  Might lean towards an UNDER in this game, depending how the total gets adjusted.

Bad weather is also in Chicago.  The tundra for the DA Bears game vs the Patriots will be frozen and covered in fluffy white stuff today.  The Total of 37 is interesting as first lean would be to take the UNDER here.   But remember that the Patriots won 57-0 last year in the snow against the Titan so that isn't an easy bet.   The difference this time will be the up to 50 MPH winds expected.  The UNDER is feeling like a good play at the moment.

Gotta luv this time of year.   Enjoy the show.... D$ Out

NFL Week #14 - Countdown to Kickoff

George St. Pierre easily took down Josh Koscheck (as expected) on Saturday and retained his title in front a crazy home crowd at the Bell Centre.

Fans who followed our picks must have felt like Koscheck does now after the Thursday night game.  An absolutely tragic back-door cover by the Titans on the last play of the game.  Bill Simmons had a great take on this game as the Titans were absolutely crazy not to kick a field goal earlier - needing two scores anyways - and try the on-side afterwards to have a chance at winning.  Even a 10 year old playing Madden would know to do this!  Having a touchdown to lose by 2 points on the last play of the game did them absolutely no good.  Brings out the 'Vegas Controlled' conspiracy theories though.

So we will rebound and come back strong this Sunday with our 5 best bets for NFL Week #14:

Oakland @ Jacksonville (-4.0)
The Jaguars have been playing surprisingly good this season - manhandled Tennessee last week running the ball and played strong defense.  Not a good spot for Oakland as they play the early game travelling from the West Coast.  The Jags want to keep there one game lead on the Colts heading to their showdown next week.  The line drops from -6.0 to -4.0 for this tilt  after a Raiders win last week which gives us some value here.   Raiders 17  Jacksonville 27.

Cincinnati (+9.0) @ Pittsburgh
Mostly a gut call here, but the Bengals are due for a unexpected win or at least will lose a divisional match up by less than 10 points.  (A few weeks ago these two teams were only separated by 6.)   Lots of injuries for the Steelers at the moment, so take the points here.   Bengals 17  Steelers 20.

Tampa Bay (-3.0) @ Washington
Again a gut call, but Washington did not put much effort last week into their divisional matchup against the Giants and won't be motivated against the Bucs.   McNabb looks terrible with no weapons around him.  A couple key injuries to the Bucs had me doubting a bit, but they proved this season that they win against the lower level teams and will rally to stay in the playoff hunt.  Riding Jassssh Freeman baby!   Bucs 28  Redskins 20.

Kansas City @ San Diego (-9.5)
Brodie Croyle is the QB for the Chiefs after Matt Cassel had an appendectomy surgery this week.  He is a lifetime 0-9 as a starter.  Enough said.  The Chargers will have revenge on their minds from Week #1 and get it and get back into the playoff hunt.  Chiefs 13  Chargers 38

St. Louis (+9.5) @ New Orleans
Keep riding the Rams who are 9-3 so far this season ATS.  Sam Bradford has this team tied for first in the NFC West and we think they have a solid chance to cover this large spread.  Upset special take the RAMS 31 Saints 30.

$5 Parlay of the week:  JAX -4, CIN +9, CLE +1, GB -7, ATL -7, TB -3, STL +9.5, NE -3, DEN -4, & DAL +4. 
(Bodog wouldn't allow the SD/KC game in any parlays as of 11:00pm on Sat. night otherwise take SD instead of DEN.)

Good Luck this week.

The Gonzaga Report: Bulldogs Still Looking For Identity

GONZAGA 59 @ WASHINGTON STATE 81

Before we get started, it was great to see old Seattle Supersonic play-by-play guy, Kevin Calabro calling this game for FSN. Calabro, calls a great game with great monikers and he'll always get big integrity props by staying in the Great Northwest once the SuperSonics became the ZombieSonics (as Bill Simmons call them) when they moved to Oklahoma City. Calab's and color commentator, Marques Johnson call a great game ala their old school days in the late '90's.

Alright, enough deflecting......sorry Paulsen, it must be said......The Zag's are rebuilding right now. They lost more, in graduating guard Matt Bouldin last year, then most people realized. At best, Gonzaga may pick it up once their WCC schedule starts, when hopefully they find their identity. The loss of the ball handling skills in Bouldin, have left the Bulldogs point guards look like their playing Marco Polo rather then lead the offense.

Soph. Forward, Elias Harris and Sr. Guard, Steven Gray are the focal points in Gonzaga's scoring, but they need that missing point guard to deliver them the rock. Instead, both Harris and Gray are needed to handle the ball which takes away from their strengths, and hence they seem just as lost as the whole team vs. Wazoo's zone tonight.

Gonzaga did make a game of it at half, by being down by 6 after chipping away a 19 point Washington State lead early in the 1st half. But as soon as they chipped away, Wazoo built the lead back to the 18-25 point lead they held throughout the 2nd half. Without the presence of a ball handler to deliver the rock to any cutters within Wazoo's zone tonight, there was no leadership coming from Gonzaga. The Zags were too bunched together on offense, making it easy for the Washington State zone defense to double-team a Zag post without any threat of a kick-out pass.

Speaking of posts, Jr. Center, Robert Sacre continues to start alright in the first half of games and then slowly implode in the 2nd half with soft post moves and slow reads on defense. Gonzaga Head Coach, Mark Few further demonstrated his search for an identity tonight, playing 10 players over 14 minutes. This is not uncommon when you're down by 20 points throughout the game, but there were many combinations of offensive looks, that Few seemed like he was grasping at straws trying to find any combination that would work.

Redshirt Freshman, David Stockton did demonstrate some quicks as did Paulsen and Adolph favorite, Kelly Olynyk. These 2 players should definitely make some appearances in a starting line-up or 2 before the WCC schedule starts after Christmas.

Right now, Gonzaga looks like it's set to relinquish their decade long dominance of the WCC, but as much as they're struggling to find an identity, they do have 10-11 players that Coach Few could mold into a threatening rotation.

WASHINGTON STATE

Wazoo will go as far as 6-6 guard-wing Klay Thompson will take them. He had over 20 points in the second half today as he was a threat on the wing of Wazoo's zone as well as en fuego from down town. But Washinton State played well during their non-conference sked last year and imploded in the Pac-10 schedule. So we'll wait and see if Wazoo is for real come January.

Thursday Night Football - Week #14

Some solid hunches from Crazydavo on Tuesday were blown up by his kryptonite team of the early part of the season - the Syracuse Orange.  He will continue to bring it strong as the season progresses and those hunches will pay out big.  Now a quick take for Thursday Night Football.

Indianapolis (-3) @ Tennessee 
(NFL Network 8:20pm EST)

Peyton Manning is the story of Colts for the past month.  He is playing some of the worst football of this career throwing INTs at an amazing rate.  The Colts do not have much of a running game at all which is putting more pressure on Peyton.

You gotta think he is gonna get some of these problems figured out over another week of film as this team needs a divisional win this week.  The Titans have been in free fall the past few weeks and having to hope that Kerry Collins will be your starting QB is not a good sign.  We like the idea of the Colts only needing to cover 3 points in prime time - when a motivated Manning is at his best.

Kudos to you, if you grabbed this game early in the week with the spread at Colts -3.  If you did not get this price, not to worry, the -3.5 shouldn't make you sweat too much!

Colts 31  Titans 21

Back on the ATS Train Tonight....Next Stop: NOT SYRACUSE

K folks, a quick post here. I've tried to maintain being in the basement and scout games before we can lay some serious cheddar down. So far there is some great intel on the UNC's, Georgetown's and USC's of the world, to name a few.

But tonight, CrazyDavo gets back on the ATS Train, and it's heading straight to Penn Station and Madison Square Garden.

I must admit, this bet is personal. This bet is coming straight from the betting gods and it dicates that I take:

(8) MICHIGAN STATE -3.5 vs. (7) SYRACUSE

This is a revenge bet on my part, as Syracuse has burnt me 3 times already this year.

But match-up-wise, this is a great bet to take based on personel rather than CrazyDavo's spitefulness towards Syracuse Head Coach, Jim Boeheim's self-proclaimed over-rated Syracuse team.

Michigan State has the distinct advantage in the guard department with Korie Lucious and Kalin Lucas. Their speed on dribble penetrations and defending will overpower the over-rated and under-achieving Syracuse guards in Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche.

In the bigs department, MSU have a rare rebounding advantage over the bigs of Syracuse. Madison Square Garden is a perfect venue for MSU's Draymond Green's coming out party tonight. He should command many low post moves for hoops and this should get him to the foul line often. He should also make the Syracuse bigs honest by jacking the trey which he can make regularly. Syracuse main post in Rick Jackson has been under-achieving as well. Also, Syracuse, forward freshman, Fab Melo is a wide body in the blocks with boat loads of potential. But right now he will still be developing, grabbing boards in spurts during the game and no-showing in the other parts of the game.

Syacuse Head Coach, Jim Boeheim called it right in his ESPN preview interview that MSU is a definitive Final 4 favorite. Syracuse on the other is not. They are talented, but in talking to Insanity Report Kitsilano Correspondent, D$ last night, Syracuse did lose alot in forward Wes Johnson, and guard Andy Rautins. Without those 2, they lose command on the blocks from the loss of Wes to the NBA and don't have a consistent guard to take care of the ball like Rautins did last year.

I like this bet very much. 3.5 points should be covered by a Final 4 team in MSU vs. an under-achieving team in the 'Cuse.

Also, I like other games but due to my Basement Proctor of late, I will lay a feeler $5 6-team parlay on:

MSU -3.5 vs. Syracuse
Utah St -13 vs. Long Beach State (Utah St is a tough WAC team, and LBS haven't covered as underdogs)
Kansas -11 vs. Memphis (Kansas is tough as always; The Morris twins are playing great and their seems to be chemistry issues in Memphis regardless of their huge recruiting class)
Old Dominion -7 @ East Carolina (Old D from a tough Atlantic 10 conferance, and East Carolina from a weak Conf-USA conferance)
Purdue -7 @ Valparaiso (Purdue still getting their bearings from losing Robbie Hummel early in the season. This game at Valpo was scheduled to allow a homecoming for Robbie Hummel; Look for Purdue to step their game on the road for their fallen ombre, Hummel)
Sacramento St -18.5 @ Loyola-Marymount (Will Sac State be the "little team that can cover" like last year? They have a juicy spread tonight against a brutal LMU squad)

Sunday Night Hoops: TEXAS @ USC

(20) TEXAS 56 @ USC 73

Not a bad game to watch after a whole day of getting rocked ATS in NFL action. I caught the 2nd half of the game, and overall, Texas made USC look good. USC did indeed surprise in how good their 2 main forwards, in SR. Alex Stepheson and JR. Nikola Vucevic are. USC held the lead for the whole game. They were up by 9 at half and went on a big run to start the 2nd half. At one point in the run, USC was up by 20 points. If you check out the ESPN recap, it says that USC came up big defensively, but Texas played with no heart on offence as they played softly hovering around the 3-point line unwilling to pass into the blocks or drive to the hole. USC took care of the ball with a surprising coming out party from FR. PG Maurice Jones (pictured above). Texas brought the game to within 10 points but it was too late. As soon as Texas had their little spurt, they turned the switch back to "coast".

USC

Their 2 big men in Alex Stepheson and Nicola Vucevic are two wide enough forwards who are versatile enough to grab rough boards and grab the athletic boards with their jumping ability. Both can take care of the ball on the blocks and face the hoop well. Stepheson can run the court well and Vucevic will shoot the 3. How well he can shoot the trey consistently remains to be seen. Vucevic had a career high 24 points to go with 9 boards.

Both forwards will have no problem outletting D-boards or getting the ball in the lane or on the blocks as, point guard Maurice Jones is lightning fast and hard to catch!! He'll deliver the ball 90% to the bigs. He is so fast with the ball, that he could rival Ty Lawson back in the UNC days. Texas tried their patented full court pressure for most of the 2nd half, and it was impossible to catch Mo-Jones. He'd avoid the pressure and set up the half-court O, while eating clock. He turned on the jets at the right time making easy dribble penetrations for easy lay-ups. Scouting reports say that when Fordham transfer, Jio Fontan becomes eligible in a week or two, he will turn heads in the Pac-10 at the point, but that is if he Mo-Jones will forego that starting job. Mo-Jones takes care of the ball and is a constant threat with his dimes and dribble penetrations. He'll keep defenders honest.

USC have been up and down all year, but as of late, the trio of Stepheson, Vucevic and Mo-Jones have led USC to some W's. If Head Coach Kevin O'Neil can avoid the drama he has found himself in his previous NCAA and NBA coaching jobs, USC will surprise many teams.

TEXAS

Texas looks like they revolve around Soph. Wingman, Jordan Hamilton. He is pretty good one-on-one from the top of the key, but as talented as he is, he goes a bit Harrison Barnes and forces many drives. He averages 21 ppg and was pretty cold today with a 12 point effort at 4-13 from the field. Most of those shots were indeed forced.

The problem with Texas is that they have no point guard whatsoever. They started turnover machine in Sr. Dogus Balbay, but he only played 6 minutes tonight. Toronto-born McDonald All-American PG Cory Joseph started along side Bogus Balbay tonight and he carried the ball up court on every possession and only managed 2 assists on 0 turnovers. He played an extremely safe game by dribbling the ball up and making a wing entry.....and nothing else. He was not a threat at all in penetrating the rock or in shooting the ball, let alone finding anywhere to spot up from a Jordan Hamilton forced drive. (Not like Hamilton would dish the ball anyways).

Texas has been a classic team in playing up and down to their competition since the Kevin Durant Elite Eight season. This is evident as they played up to Illinois by beating them in OT earlier in November and playing down to USC tonight. From seeing them play tonight, they will not play up to many more elite teams, as their question marks at guard should not allow it. This may bring along the same chemistry issues that plagued Texas last year.

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #13

Auburn and Oregon got the job done on Saturday and have set themselves up for the BCS championship next month.

Also nice to see the Washington Huskies recover from an 0-12 season in 2008 to become bowl elligible with their win in the Apple Cup against the Washington State Cougars.  That program hasn't been to a bowl since 2002 and is set for a Holiday Bowl appearance.

Now time for us to make picks for the Sunday NFL matchups.  As part of our 5 best bets earlier this week we liked Chicago, St. Louis, and New England.  The theme of the week appears to be revenge - so now time to round out the top five:

Denver @ Kansas City (-9.0)
The Chiefs will be up for revenge after the no-handshake blowout these two teams played a few weeks ago.  They will not be afraid to run up the score if given the opportunity.  Take the motivated home team at Arrowhead in this matchup.   Broncos 14  Chiefs 44

Jacksonville (+3) @ Tennessee
A lot has changed since Tennesse won in their earlier matchup about a month ago.  Tennesee has been in freefall with no QB and hoping that Kerry Collins is healthy enough to start Sunday after a dismal showing by Rusty Smith.  (No surprise there!)  Jacksonville will also have the 'revenge' word in mind and would like to beat the Titans this week.  The Jaguars are not an elite team but have played enough and should get it done here.   Jacksonville 24  Tennesse 20

Other leanings this week:
Bills (+6) @ Vikings.   Vikings have key injuries to stars Steve Hutchingson, Arian Peterson, and Percy Harvin.  Also should be noted the Bills haven't lost a game by more than 3 points since Week #5.

Saints (-7) @  Bengals.  The Bengals are a bad team and the Saints are playing well - mostly a gut call here.

You may also want to add Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and the Giants to make up a 10-game parlay/teaser for fun.     Good Luck in Week #13. 

D$ Out

GUS CALLS UNC/KENTUCKY!!!! UNC NOT AS CRAPPY AS WE ALL THINK!

(11) KENTUCKY 73 @ NORTH CAROLINA 75

CBS starts their College Hoops season off right with the Man, The Myth and the Heart Attack Legend, Gus Johnson!!! Early in the 1st half, UNC’s on the break…….Larry Drew stops and pops a trey. Gus says, ”Drew….RISE AND FIRE!!!!!” ….Adolph says, “Gus….CHILLS AND GOOSEBUMPS!!!”

This was a great game. One of various tempos. It started as an open court affair, not only exposing UNC’s chronic turnover epidemic, but exposing Kentucky’s erratic shot selection as they ended the 1st half on a pretty big shooting slump. The game changed in the 2nd half as Kentucky slowed the game down, forcing the half-court game and using the whole shot clock. This played into Carolina’s strength in their lanky big men who blocked shots and grabbed the boards off of Kentucky’s low field goal percentage.

The game ended with Carolina chipping away to hold off Kentucky hitting their free throws to keep their small lead. Due to the Law of Gus, there was a pretty exciting finish as Kentucky missed a half-court buzzer beater that would have led Gus Johnson to go crazy, and streak down Tobacco Road!!!

NORTH CAROLINA

Insanity Report North Correspondent, Marc Paulsen texted me saying that UNC’s defense may have changed. He sheepishly stated that Roy may have read the last blog calling him out. That’d be huge if Roy did read it, but even if he did, how can he UN-COACH the UNC turnovers? UNC’s guards turn the ball so many times that it seems like it’s ingrained into their DNA. Roy’s a coach not a geneticist!!!! Plus, he’s a coach, NOOOT A POOOOL-MAN!!!!!!

The bottom line with UNC is they are young and their guards are weak, and when those guards are running on all cylinders they still cannot command a game from distributing the ball to hitting open jumpers. They are rarely en fuego, and rather than distribute the ball, they turn the ball over with softer entry passes into the post than Homer Simpson’s ring entry vs. Drederick Tatum!

Carolina’s strength is most definitely in their forwards, Tyler Zeller, John Henson and soon-to-be Harrison Barnes. As stated, they are a bit weak deep in the blocks, but they are a threat once they hit their jumpers from the short corner and elbow. They’re reach, especially Henson’s will alter many shots in the trenches.

Tyler Zeller had his coming out game this afternoon. He had a career high 27 points off of 11-12 free throw shooting. His coming out party was due to his determination late in the game and will to win. Zeller started the game a bit soft in the blocks allowing defenders to deny entry passes, but he kept the Kentucky bigs honest with those needed 10-15 foot jumpers. When he lined up to hit his FT’s late in the 2nd half, those shots were already made before he shot the ball. You could see it in his eyes!

Henson is a work horse that sparks UNC. He’s a hard hard worker, but he’s not strong enough to command position in the blocks. He throws up bigger bricks from the free throw line than a Holmes on Holmes underpinned foundation!!!! His free throw shooting is so bad that over/under prop bets are posted betting “Henson FT Airballs” at over/under 2.5! He had a 1-on-1 fast break breakaway opportunity where the shear length of his go-go gadget arms should have drilled the ball into the hoop; But he awkwardly and softly went for reverse lay-up. HENSON IS RAW!!!!!! He continues to develop, but until he can strengthen those Olive Oil arms, he will continue to show flashes of brilliance rather than a more consistent solid 40 minutes of hoops.

Harrison Barnes (like UNC, in general) has been way over-hyped and over-rated by almost all media and pollsters . He is a definite talent and will be a threat. But in watching 2 games so far, Harrison Barnes tries to do too much all by himself. His drives/shots he takes are 1 on 3 drives or his shots are over of double/triple teams. He had an amazing put-back dunk in the first half that is a sign of things to come, but right now, Harrison Barnes’ game is playing into the press clippings headlined by an ill-advised pre-season All-American selection. Harrison, calm down and listen to Roy! Don’t believe your own press clippings, you’re not there yet!

Talking to Paulsen this afternoon, made me realize that UNC has been waaaay over-hyped in the past 2 years. They are in the midst of there 2nd rebuilding year post-Tyler Hansborough. They are still developing, and Top 10 ranking are unrealistic at this point.

Overall, this season’s freshmen in all of the NCAA are indeed talented, but most have a lot to develop. There is no one-and-done’ers in the nation except for Duke’s Kyrie Irving and maybe, Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger (from what I’ve seen in box scores and recaps, but yet to see a game). This bodes well for fans of the Madness as we will have deep rosters for the next 2-3 years and Gus Johnson better take his blood pressure meds!!!

INsAniTY RePOrT on Michigan State v. Duke

My apolgies for the late post here from Wednesday. But some intel on the game and some intel on Duke and Michigan State.

(6) MICHIGAN STATE 79 @ (1) DUKE 84

Game Recap:

A close game on Wednesday judging by the score. But Duke held the lead for the whole 2nd half as they capitalized off MSU turnovers and had a wicked half-court defense that would make Hickory Husker Coach, Norman Dale celebrate with Assistant Coach, Shooter over a jug of Indiana moonshine!!!

Duke had amazing on-the-ball defense by stopping many MSU dribble penetrations with lightning quick first steps. On the rare occasion that an MSU player got by a Duke defender, the help-side was in perfect position to quickly cut off the lane. Plus, Duke’s positioning on the help-side and in the passing lanes called for many easy steals as Duke used their lanky reach to grab soft entry passes.

The Spartans 3 main players in JR. F. Draymond Green, SR. PG Kalin Lucas and SR. SG Durrell Summers got off to a super slow start in the 1st half, while Duke’s freshman PG, Kyrie Irving had a coming our party with 31 points, 18 in the 1st half. Duke had a pretty big run early in the 2nd half that woke up Michigan State guards Kalin Lucas and JR. G Korie Lucious. Those 2 eventually broke Duke ankles on dribble penetrations once Izzo set up a more spread out offense. But Duke, played typical smart hoops by eating up shot clocks, getting timely hoops from SR. Wing, Kyle Singler and hitting late free throws to weather the Michigan State comeback.

MICHIGAN STATE

This was a weird game for the Spartans. They have most likely the deepest team in the nation right now, but not the deepest bench just yet. That is, it seems like they haven’t found the right combination of bench minutes. They have low post presence, but their mojo is in the penetrating quickness of guards, Kalin Lucas and Korie Lucious. Draymond Green may be their best player and biggest threat as a 6-6 low post presence who can drain 3’s. He’s quite strong, but his combination of skills may get tangled in what the Spartans game plan must be on any given night. If anybody can untangle the Green web, it’s Tom to the Izzo!!!

Michigan State has all the tools for Tom Izzo’s lucky 7th Final 4 run. The aforementioned guard play and forward WMD, Draymond Green will hit all cylinders soon enough and should dominate another deep Big Ten Conference this year.

DUKE

Duke’s defense will set up all offensive opportunities this year. The defense that Duke demonstrated tonight shows that they will go through very few slumps throughout the season. Duke’s defense sets up easy open court hoops to make the difference and break the backs of many opponents.

There has been much fanfare about Freshman PG Kyrie Irving. Watching him on Wednesday solidified every scouting report out there. Kyrie is a game changer. The comparison’s to past Duke PG, Jason Williams (pre-Jay Williams that is) is quite warranted, but it seems like Coach Sha-chef-ramsey-ski is still trying to find Kyrie’s actual role on the team. Will he be unleashed as an open court scorer and disher? or will he control the game defensively and run the disciplined Duke playbook? Coach K, will most likely find a way to unleash both speeds out of Kyrie which will hide his weaknesses, which as of now, are few.

Right now THE BEST quality of Irving is that he takes all of the pressure off of SR. Wing, Kyle Singler. Singler has been a hot and cold performer his whole career at Duke. Now Duke doesn’t have to rely of the coin flip of whether they’ll get 25 points or 12 points out of Singler. Irving’s best quality is that he is a more consistent focal point for Duke than Singler had to be in his first 3 years at Duke. Now Singler can afford slumps like he had early on Wednesday vs. MSU, followed by the short streak of treys he had mid way through the 2nd half.

Duke’s main strength is in their consistency that Irving adds to the understated consistency that SR. G Nolan Smith adds. Nolan Smith plays the game with the blank assassin’s stare. He’s silky smooth and he finds a way to slither his way into the free throw circle for dribble jumpers. Plus add the big presence of under-rated Soph. F. Mason Plumlee.

Duke has it all right now. They are bar none the best team in the country right now. RIGHT NOW! It’s a long season, but Duke looks like they have the tools to remain consistent. DAMN!!!!

UNC Fan out!!!!

Gambling 101 - How winning at 52.5% rate will make you money

Discipline.  We have been constantly reminded of the importantance of this key gambling principle the past few weeks.  Time for D$ to apply his math degree to explain further.

Sports are played by humans beings with millions of variables during each game and it is next to impossible to handicap each game correctly.   A few key plays can dictate the entire outcome of a game.  Gambling well is not easy and winning at a 70-90% rate, regardless of what some jackoff tells you, just doesn't happen long term.  The really sexy number is 52.5%.   That is the winning rate a gambler needs to make profit.  That's right, pretty much a coin flip.  Don't believe me.... follow along.

Most experienced gamblers know to only make straight up bets using only 1%-5% of their bank roll per play.  Let's say you have a $5500.00 bank roll. and bet units of 2%.  This means your betting unit is $110.00 per play.  (2% x $5500).   We assume standard 10 cent vig on your bets - i.e. $110.00 to win $100.

If making plays on the NFL over the course of a 17 week season, or say 200 games, being correct on 52.5% of your plays will result in :

Winning 105 plays = $10,500.00       (200 plays x 52.5% x $100/play)
Losing     95 plays =  -$10,450.00      (200 plays x 52.5% x -$110/play)

Net Amount = +$50.00.  
We hope to help make your win percentage over 52.5%, but now you can understand why a good long term approach can result in profits.


Why stay away from big parlay and the sexy teaser bets?
Betting on parlays is tempting because of their huge potential payout, but they rarely win.  Putting down $20.00 each week would mean spending an additiona $340.00 for the season and result in a net loss unless one of the low percentage parlays actually wins.   Your winning % on straight up plays needs to jump to 53.5% or 107 wins to start profiting again on 200 plays.  Keeping the parlays at $5.00/week for the dream payoff drops the cost down to $85.00 for the season and likely keeps more cheese in your pocket.


Riding Bill Simmons Picks
If you have been following the ESPN Sport Guy, Bill Simmons, he is playing the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest picking NFL games.  Bill selects 5 games each week ATS and has an amazing 35-23-2 record so far (60.3%).  Betting $110 on each of his picks (60 plays) would have yielded :

35 wins x $100 = $3500.00
23 losses x $110 = $2,530.00
TOTAL NET PROFIT = $970.00!  
(or a 14.7% return on your investment which is better than the stock market over the past 3 months!)

For the season on all his plays he is currently 96-75-5 or 56.1%.  This would be a tidy $1350.00 profit on the season heading into Week #13.  Again, not to shabby.


The numbers have been thrown at you to understand that you don't need to win at 70% to make huge money.  Going 3-2 each week is good - 60% is an amazing number and results in a strong payout.  Chasing action and betting without doing your homework results in lost money over the long run.  The concepts mentioned here apply best to football and basketball, but similar theories exist for the other sports too.  You don't have to put huge risky plays out there to yield a solid return.  Stay Discliplined my friends, Stay Disciplined.

D$ Out.

Thursday Night Football - Week #13

A little late, but we got our early takes heading into Week #13 of the NFL Season.

Superstar Andre Johnson was not suspended for fighting with 'Irish punk' Courtland Finnegan this past Sunday, but did pay a hefty $25,000.00 fine.

Because Andre is in the linup, and finally close to healthy again, along with the Texans being a completely Shizzo team to bet on this year, we are preaching discipline and leaning toward no action on Thursday.  If you completely feel obligated to throw a few bones down on this game, I got a leaning that the Eagles will cover the -8.5 spread .  Philly should win the game and the only risk here is a backdoor cover.

There are better games out there so let's take a look at what looks a little more juicy:

Chicago (-5.5) @ Detriot
Earlier this week we may have felt this was a 'trap' game, but with news of Drew Stanton being the starting QB for the Leos as Shaun Hill is done for the year and Javid Best still pretty banged up, this looks like a pretty good opportunity to take Da Bears without having to lay a full touchdown.    Da Bears 27  Lions 13

St Louis (-3.5) @ Arizona
The Rams are 8-3 against the spread this season and QB Sam Bradford is the real deal folks.  Bradford has been doing this without many weapons, but Steven Jackson and the defense are playing well for this team.  Hard to imagine the Cardinals who looked terrible on Monday night showing much improvement off a short week.  Rams are in the hunt for the division title and won't overlook this matchup to get them to 6-6 for the
year.   RAMS 24  Cardinals 20

New York Jets @ New England (-3.5)
The Jets have found ways to play to the level of their opponents and just win games.  Thinking coach hoodie with 11 days to prepare for this matchup will be ready for this revenge match at home.  As Bill Simmons says, the line could move to -4.0 before gametime so if playing the Patriots, like we are, then might be wise to grab now.   Jets 20  Patriots 31

Stay tuned tomorrow for money management 101 (part of the disciplined gambling approach) and more great picks for the weekend! 

D$ Out