Here is D$'s best bets and analysis of the line moves heading into kickoff:
EARLY GAMES
Bengals -3. Bad weather in Carolina should keep this close, so shop around on best line as Bodog is at 3.5 at time of blog post. The under 38 is worth a deeper look because as both teams will need to rely on run games more.
NE -14. If you can get this price, I like them to cover as said ealier in week.
Under 37 for Browns @ Ravens.
49ers -3. A risky pick after the Monday Night game - and many sportbooks are offering reduced juice to back them, refusing to budge the line from -3. I am hanging on to the belief that the Chiefs aren't a very good team (despite their 2-0 record) and they will show their true colours this week.
LATE GAMES
Colts -6. Totally agree with JDawg. Bet this before line moves to -7. ( Moreno out plus Champ Bailey and other stud Brocs corner is injured.)
Under 39.5 in Raiders @ Cardinals.
STAY AWAY - NO VALUE GAMES
Atlanta @ New Orleans (-3.5). Line has moved a full point towards the dirty birds, but not enough value on either side to make this a worthwhile play. Enjoy as fan and take notes for future weeks.
Pit -3 @ Tampa Bay. This should be a low scoring, ugly game and you may need every point you can get if taking a side here. i.e. seems like you might be sweating right until the final whistle. Under 33 is too few points and too scary so staying away from both.
Good Luck and Enjoy the Games!!
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Still recovering from a great day of College Football! UCLA +16 at Texas? Colt McCoy has proven very hard to replace in Austin and Slick Rick finally has a signature win. Great job by Alabama escaping in Arkansas, they are still the team to beat, but once again this game shows their are many landmines ahead in the SEC. Boise State got the job done but none of the much needed style points.
Ok on to the NFL.
5 Star game of the day.
Carson Palmer vs Jimmy Clausen. I know how hard it is to take Road dogs but this QB mismatch is off the charts and the Bengals D looked much improved last week. We will give the 3 points and ride with Cats!
4 Star Game
The San Francisco Forty Niners had a nice bounce back last week and if they are going to contend in the NFC West (the most pathetic division in all of sports today) they need to win this game. The Chiefs are improved and Arrowhead is one of the toughest places to play in the league but we like the Niners -3.
We will also include another road favourite here with the Colts -6 at Denver. Last year in Indy the Colts were up on Denver 21 zip half way through the second quarter. The absence of Moreno for Denver is big because it takes away the threat of a running game which Denver really needed to keep Payton Manning off the field. Look for the Colts to dominate here and ride this pony for some easy money.
3 Star Game
Finally we will fade a home favourite and take the Dallas Cowboys +3 at Houston. The Texans have been impressive but their pass defense has been lit up in 2 games this year. Dallas has won the stat battle in both it's games this year and we think in this desperate situation they will come up big and win the battle of Texas!
Totals:
Currently riding a 4 and 0 record in NFL totals this year! Here are the games we like this week:
Cleveland/Baltimore Under 37
Oakland/Arizona Under 39.5
Redskins/Rams Under 39
Gook luck to everyone this week!
Ok on to the NFL.
5 Star game of the day.
Carson Palmer vs Jimmy Clausen. I know how hard it is to take Road dogs but this QB mismatch is off the charts and the Bengals D looked much improved last week. We will give the 3 points and ride with Cats!
4 Star Game
The San Francisco Forty Niners had a nice bounce back last week and if they are going to contend in the NFC West (the most pathetic division in all of sports today) they need to win this game. The Chiefs are improved and Arrowhead is one of the toughest places to play in the league but we like the Niners -3.
We will also include another road favourite here with the Colts -6 at Denver. Last year in Indy the Colts were up on Denver 21 zip half way through the second quarter. The absence of Moreno for Denver is big because it takes away the threat of a running game which Denver really needed to keep Payton Manning off the field. Look for the Colts to dominate here and ride this pony for some easy money.
3 Star Game
Finally we will fade a home favourite and take the Dallas Cowboys +3 at Houston. The Texans have been impressive but their pass defense has been lit up in 2 games this year. Dallas has won the stat battle in both it's games this year and we think in this desperate situation they will come up big and win the battle of Texas!
Totals:
Currently riding a 4 and 0 record in NFL totals this year! Here are the games we like this week:
Cleveland/Baltimore Under 37
Oakland/Arizona Under 39.5
Redskins/Rams Under 39
Gook luck to everyone this week!
CRAZYDAVO'S WEEK 3 EARLY PICKS
NO -3.5 vs. ATL
Drew Brees is in that post-Super Bowl honeymoon period and that honeymoon period is the 4th quarter! He's going to find a way to win no matter what the situation and no matter how much time is on the clock. The Saints hit their stride with their 4th quarter drive to win on the road in San Fran last week. This is bad timing for an ATL team that is an upper echelon team but still trying to find their stride. A tough stride for Baby Ryan and Yippee-Kiyay Mr. Falcons in the Honeymoon Dome in Nawlins. Saints by 8.
KC +3 vs. SAN FRAN
KC is for real this year. That is, they are improved. Although their coaching staff is straight from the hand-me-downs in the Bill Belicheck section of Value Village, they did assemble a pretty good O-line and a solid defense. They are this season's dog of the year and should go 3-0 ATS after Sunday, with all 3 games as the underdog. San Fran is in disarray in the locker room, and got humbled in Seattle in Week 1 and had the Pillsbury Game of Week last week with their 4 turnovers vs. New Orleans. Most previews are saying "what if San Fran didn't commit 4 T.O's last week?", well the fact of the matter is that they did, and it looks like they're in-fighting will translate to the field again at Arrowhead. QB-wise, I'll take Matt Cassell over Alex "Tragic" Smith everyday of the week and ATS on Sunday!!
DET +11.5 @ MIN
The more I think of this game, the more I might stay away from this game on my ticket. As Bill Simmons says, it's smart to stick to your guns with your early season picks and I was thinking of Detroit covering more spreads this year. Detroit has indeed improved their line-up from last year. But this underdog hunch had a line-up with Matt Stafford at QB and not Shaun Hill. There isn't much faith in a QB named Shaun Hill that was cut to allow Tragic Smith to smear Joe Montana and Steve Young's good legacy at the 'Stick. It may be smart to lay off this dog bet to get one more week of scouting from Detroit, but Brett Favra's weekly series of The Housewives of Minnesota with the coaching staff is compounding the fact that he is 1 year overdue on his carton of milk of a post-GB career. Minnesota should ride the coat tails of AP from here on in, in order to find victories, but Ndamukong Suh and Detroit's D-line may limit AP to a victory under 11.5 points. Vikings by 9.
DAL @ HOU
STAY AWAY!!!!!! Dallas is the best marketed team in sports, as they have all the headlines and hoopla for an under-.500 team. They do have talent, but are way over-valued. Houston may have hit their stride finally, but last week's comeback victory to salvage a push at Washington solidified the Texans 3 year run as the NFL Jeckyl-n-Hyde team of year. As soon as you think Houston will blow a team out, they blow it, and as soon as you lose faith in the Texans, they dominate and cover the spread by half-time. Stay away from the Texans!!!! They're that flirty tease you tried all your game on in high school and all you got was a measly slow dance to Axel Rose and November Rain. Paulsen and Fouche said stay away and 20 years later, finally I can say, "LESSON LEARNED"
TENN @ NYG
Eli will bounce back, and Chris Johnson has yet to have his breakout Madden-Video-Game stat game. Flip a coin. Gonna stay away from this one.
NE -14.5 vs. BUF
I loved New England in Week 1 as their O-line was dominant vs. the Bengals. But now that they shipped Maroney out of town and Kevin Faulk is out for the year with a torn ACL, the Pats have no running attack to open up the passing attack. Oh, but wait the Bills have no talent, defense or coaching staff to stop Bill Simmons' man-crush on Tom Brady's long hair let alone the air attack from Wes Welker and Randy Moss. Pats by 20.
CLEV +11 @ BAL – Under 37.0 points
Seneca Wallace vs. Joe Flacco? Set the Over-Under at 21 points!!!!!!! That is a lock bet with the UNDER. Ray Rice may have a bust out game for over 200 yards this week, but even if this happens, the Ravens do a bad job of cashing in drives into the end zone. Ravens 17 Cleveland 9
PIT -3 @ TB – Under 33 Points Josh Freeman is a very under-rated QB for T-Bay, but Pittsburgh's defense is in a different stratosphere then every other defense in the NFL. As a joke 2 blogs ago, I said Pittsburgh was starting their 7th string QB. Now that joke is, in fact, reality. Label this game the Field Goal Bowl!!! Pit 13 TB 6. The lone touchdown for the Steel? A pick six by the defense of course. Freeman will have a solid season and career, and this physical beating he takes from the Steel Curtain will be a tough lesson for the Buccaneer QB.
CIN @ CAR
Odds are to take Cincinnati ATS with rookie QB Jimmie Clausen starting for the Kitties (nice one D$), but Cincinnati is another Houston-type Jeckly-n-Hyde team. I'm staying away, but what the hell: Cin 27 Car 17
WASH -4.5 @ STL
Ride the St Louis Rams road to double-digit spreads up to week 8 or 9. So Wash by 4.5? Deal!!!!
PHI @ JAX
I'm sticking to my guns here, with being a fan and fan alone of Michael Vick's Comeback. His amazing broken play rushes are still a spread killer, but they should cover at a Jacksonville home game with a home crowd that rivals that of a UBC Thunderbird home game. Can you say Black-Out!?!?
IND -6 @ DEN
Peyton is in Tom Izzo Betting Law territory. That is, you don't have to bet for Peyton all the time, but never bet against Peyton. But I may not bet for Peyton this week, as the Mile High mystique helps the Bronc even in their rebuilding year this season.
SD -4.5 @ SEA
game goes for the Qwest Field home field advantage. Pretty Jeckyl-n-hyde for the Shithawks, but SD should cover.
MIA -2.5 vs. NYJ
Typical New York over-hype once again with Coach Ryan and the Fraudchise at QB. Everyone, lets get the chant going: J!!! E!!! T!!! S!!! OVERVALUED!!! OVERVALUED!!! OVERVALUED!!! Plus the Fish defense is SICK!!! SICK!!! SICK!!! Fish by 10.
GB @ CHI
A good test for GB on the road at Soldier Field vs. an over-valued Bear squad that does have not bad stats on Offense. Gonna stay away.
I'll lay some money down on about 10 games, but lets set a 7 game parlay as such:
NO -3.5
KC +3
NE -14.5
Clev/Bal Under 37.0
Pit -3
Was -4.5
Mia -2.5
Gamble! Gamble!!!
CrazyDavo out!!
Friday, September 24, 2010
NCAA Week 4
Alright back with some money making picks for week 4 of the college football schedule.
Let's start in Atlanta where Georgia Tech will host NC State. Looks like year 3 under Jim O'Brien will be the turning point for the Wolfpack who have been impressive with 2 straight SU and ATS wins vs Central Florida and Cincinnati. On the other hand the Yellow Jackets have been inconsistent with an unexplainable straight up loss to Kansas 2 weeks ago.
NC State Jr QB Russel Wilson has 56 TD passes against only 12 interceptions. NC State run defense good enough to get the job done.
This is our "dog of the week" and we like NC State (+8.5) to win straight up vs Tech!
Next the Georgia Bulldogs travel to Mississippi State to take on the other Bulldogs. Both teams 0-2 in conference play and in must win situations. We like Mark Richt to rally the troops and get back on track here. Georgia is 9-0 SU since 1978 in this series and I think they will make it 10.
Take Georgia (PK) over Mississippi State
Next up Southern Miss -3.5 at La-Tech. Southern Miss opened as a 6.5 point favorite in this game and has seen that number fall to just 3.5. Must be a La-Tech alumni meeting in Vegas this week because this one makes no sense. The techsters got lit up in the second half vs Navy last week while Southern Miss was very impressive in a victory over Cincinnati.
We like Southern Miss (-3.5) to keep it rolling as Tech continues to adjust to a new coach and new system.
Finally UNC travels to New Jersey to take on Rutgers. UNC in a world of hurt at 0-2 and still waiting for news on at least 8 suspended players. Despite this the Heels have competed against 2 solid opponents and had a chance to win both games. Meanwhile Rutgers has played inferior opposition and yet has been on the losing side of the stats in both games.
UNC (-2) in a must win game to salvage their season wins at Rutgers.
Other games we like:
Texas has gone from a 21 point favorite to 16 this week. People are over reacting to the UCLA win over Houston last week. Remember they got beat by Stanford at home 35 - 0!
Longhorns (-16)
Purdue is getting good value at home only having to give 11.5 to Toledo.
Take the Boilermakers (-11.5)
Rice is still the darling of bettors after they covered vs Texas to open the season. This is giving great value, Baylor should be favoured by 10 - 12 points in most power rankings and only are giving 7.5.
We will ride the Bears (-7.5)
Good luck to all! NFL picks to come tomorrow.
Jdawg is out!
Alright back with some money making picks for week 4 of the college football schedule.
Let's start in Atlanta where Georgia Tech will host NC State. Looks like year 3 under Jim O'Brien will be the turning point for the Wolfpack who have been impressive with 2 straight SU and ATS wins vs Central Florida and Cincinnati. On the other hand the Yellow Jackets have been inconsistent with an unexplainable straight up loss to Kansas 2 weeks ago.
NC State Jr QB Russel Wilson has 56 TD passes against only 12 interceptions. NC State run defense good enough to get the job done.
This is our "dog of the week" and we like NC State (+8.5) to win straight up vs Tech!
Next the Georgia Bulldogs travel to Mississippi State to take on the other Bulldogs. Both teams 0-2 in conference play and in must win situations. We like Mark Richt to rally the troops and get back on track here. Georgia is 9-0 SU since 1978 in this series and I think they will make it 10.
Take Georgia (PK) over Mississippi State
Next up Southern Miss -3.5 at La-Tech. Southern Miss opened as a 6.5 point favorite in this game and has seen that number fall to just 3.5. Must be a La-Tech alumni meeting in Vegas this week because this one makes no sense. The techsters got lit up in the second half vs Navy last week while Southern Miss was very impressive in a victory over Cincinnati.
We like Southern Miss (-3.5) to keep it rolling as Tech continues to adjust to a new coach and new system.
Finally UNC travels to New Jersey to take on Rutgers. UNC in a world of hurt at 0-2 and still waiting for news on at least 8 suspended players. Despite this the Heels have competed against 2 solid opponents and had a chance to win both games. Meanwhile Rutgers has played inferior opposition and yet has been on the losing side of the stats in both games.
UNC (-2) in a must win game to salvage their season wins at Rutgers.
Other games we like:
Texas has gone from a 21 point favorite to 16 this week. People are over reacting to the UCLA win over Houston last week. Remember they got beat by Stanford at home 35 - 0!
Longhorns (-16)
Purdue is getting good value at home only having to give 11.5 to Toledo.
Take the Boilermakers (-11.5)
Rice is still the darling of bettors after they covered vs Texas to open the season. This is giving great value, Baylor should be favoured by 10 - 12 points in most power rankings and only are giving 7.5.
We will ride the Bears (-7.5)
Good luck to all! NFL picks to come tomorrow.
Jdawg is out!
Monday, September 20, 2010
D$'s NFL Week #3 - Early Takes
If Gus Johnson was calling the Monday Night game tonight he would be yelling 'WHAT A GAME. - HA HAAA'. Week #2 is officially in the books. Here is an early look at the lines for Week #3 :
Green Bay (-3) @ Chicago
This is looking like my early lock of the week. Chicago is over-rated after two 'lucky' wins to start the season and the early vegas line seems to reflect this. (Should have lost to Lions in Week #1.) The Packers will be up for this divisional matchup on MNF and I see Cutler throwing a few picks in this game to solid Green Bay defense. Green Bay 30, Pandas 13.
Buffalo @ New England (-13.5)
Keep betting against the Bills until they prove they can cover. Best to get this one before the line moves past a key number like 14. The Patriots will be motivated after a loss in Week #2 against the Jets and will use this week to get back on track. The Bills have already given up on Trent Edwards and going with Ryan Fitzpatrick this week as starter. Bills 10, Patriots 44.
Cleveland @ Baltimore (-10.5), Total 37
Both offenses have really struggled to start this season. The Browns defense is not terrible and should keep this one from being a 30 point blowout so lean on the UNDER in this one. Check the weather report before locking this up. Browns 3, Ravens 16
Cinncinatti (-3) @ Carolina
Carolina is a bad football team - rookie QB Clausen is already their new starter. The Bengals are not terrible, so grab the -3 before this line moves up if you can. Bengals 23 Kitties 9
Detriot (+10.5) @ Minnesota
Minnesota offense has not looked good except for AP. Their only TD last week was off a Ricky Williams fumble inside the 5 yard line. The Lions have played well both weeks. Not saying they win this game, but gotta like the 10+ points getting here as the Leos have covered their first two games. Note: if Vikings land Vincent Jackson in a trade, then might revise this prediction, so watch this line as the week progresses. Minnesota 23 Lions 17
Cowboys @ Houston (-3)
With a win over the Colts in Week #1 and a 17 point comeback victory in Week #2, the Texans have me that convinced that they are legit this year and should be a playoff team. The Cowboys are in disarray coming into Houston. I can't see the Texans taking them lightly and the popularity of the Cowboys has this line at -3 which means vegas has these team even, which they clearly are NOT. Cowboys 17, Texans 30
Pittsburgh (-3) @ Tampa Bay (Total 34)
Vegas knows that there isn't going to be many points in this game, but keep an eye on this one none-the-less as Pittsburgh has got its 4th string QB in play and their defense is amazing. Penguins 6, Lightning 3
Last of the early takes. Keep an eye on the UNDER for the Washington @ St. Louis (Total 38) and Oakland @ Arizona (Total 40) games too.
Green Bay (-3) @ Chicago
This is looking like my early lock of the week. Chicago is over-rated after two 'lucky' wins to start the season and the early vegas line seems to reflect this. (Should have lost to Lions in Week #1.) The Packers will be up for this divisional matchup on MNF and I see Cutler throwing a few picks in this game to solid Green Bay defense. Green Bay 30, Pandas 13.
Buffalo @ New England (-13.5)
Keep betting against the Bills until they prove they can cover. Best to get this one before the line moves past a key number like 14. The Patriots will be motivated after a loss in Week #2 against the Jets and will use this week to get back on track. The Bills have already given up on Trent Edwards and going with Ryan Fitzpatrick this week as starter. Bills 10, Patriots 44.
Cleveland @ Baltimore (-10.5), Total 37
Both offenses have really struggled to start this season. The Browns defense is not terrible and should keep this one from being a 30 point blowout so lean on the UNDER in this one. Check the weather report before locking this up. Browns 3, Ravens 16
Cinncinatti (-3) @ Carolina
Carolina is a bad football team - rookie QB Clausen is already their new starter. The Bengals are not terrible, so grab the -3 before this line moves up if you can. Bengals 23 Kitties 9
Detriot (+10.5) @ Minnesota
Minnesota offense has not looked good except for AP. Their only TD last week was off a Ricky Williams fumble inside the 5 yard line. The Lions have played well both weeks. Not saying they win this game, but gotta like the 10+ points getting here as the Leos have covered their first two games. Note: if Vikings land Vincent Jackson in a trade, then might revise this prediction, so watch this line as the week progresses. Minnesota 23 Lions 17
Cowboys @ Houston (-3)
With a win over the Colts in Week #1 and a 17 point comeback victory in Week #2, the Texans have me that convinced that they are legit this year and should be a playoff team. The Cowboys are in disarray coming into Houston. I can't see the Texans taking them lightly and the popularity of the Cowboys has this line at -3 which means vegas has these team even, which they clearly are NOT. Cowboys 17, Texans 30
Pittsburgh (-3) @ Tampa Bay (Total 34)
Vegas knows that there isn't going to be many points in this game, but keep an eye on this one none-the-less as Pittsburgh has got its 4th string QB in play and their defense is amazing. Penguins 6, Lightning 3
Last of the early takes. Keep an eye on the UNDER for the Washington @ St. Louis (Total 38) and Oakland @ Arizona (Total 40) games too.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
D$'s Week #2 Recap
A little better this week. Best bets were 2-1-1 thanks to a nice (and pleasantly surprising) Houston comeback. Impressive showings by Atlanta and Green Bay as predicted. Tennesse managed to turn the ball over 7 times and still have a shot to tie it up at the end with Kerry Collins at QB. Wow
Kicking myself a little bit as bad teams playing each other are good UNDER plays. The KAN @ CLE, TB @ CAR, and STL @ OAK games were all examples of that this week! Easy money. Com'mon Man!
This has D$ already looking at the UNDER for the following Week #3 matchups: PIT @ TB, CLE @ BAL, OAK @ ARI, and NYJ @ MIA. Teams that haven't put up to many points this year.
2010 NFL Record ATS : 14-15-3, Best Bets : 5-4-1
Kicking myself a little bit as bad teams playing each other are good UNDER plays. The KAN @ CLE, TB @ CAR, and STL @ OAK games were all examples of that this week! Easy money. Com'mon Man!
This has D$ already looking at the UNDER for the following Week #3 matchups: PIT @ TB, CLE @ BAL, OAK @ ARI, and NYJ @ MIA. Teams that haven't put up to many points this year.
2010 NFL Record ATS : 14-15-3, Best Bets : 5-4-1
Saturday, September 18, 2010
D$'s NFL Week #2 Best Bets
After a .500 start to the season, it's time to pick it up a notch. A deeper look at the Week #2 games was needed, and I'm looking to get hot this week with my picks. D$ is FIRED UP!
Bill Simmons had a good column this week talking about learning lessons from Week #1. The key is not to overreact to just one week of action as this is truly a league where on 'any given Sunday' anyone can win. You are not going to be right 90% of the time against the spread - that would be awesome - but by watching the games you can get a sense if you were on the 'right' track with your predictions or completely off base. If you handicap games correctly and monitor the line to get the best price during the week, then more often than not, you are gonna be successful over the long run.
The Monday Night game was a classic example. The Chargers played against a fired up Chiefs crowd, terrible weather, got burnt on some flukey special teams plays, and still had a chance to tie the game in the final seconds. The Chargers are the better team in the game - if it goes 5 quarters the Chargers win for sure - but the Chiefs won in a perfect storm of factors working against the Chargers. Lessons learned: the Chiefs are better than last year, but don't overhype them too much yet. The Chargers are a typically slow starting team which isn't as bad as you think.
Best Bets for Week #2:
Atlanta (-7) vs Arizona
I am still a believer in the Falcons - at least for one more week. The Steelers defense is probably one of the top 3 in the league again and the Cardinals will be a lot easier team to play against for the dirty birds. The Falcons are a good team at home, and will be very motivated coming off a close loss. Derek Anderson already has Larry Fitzgerald rolling his eyes with accuracy issues, and Beanie Wells might not play with an injury. I see the Falcons winning big here. Arizona 10, Falcons 38
Green Bay (-13.5) vs Buffalo
This one should be a lay up. In most power rankings out there the Packers are a top three team and the Bills are a bottom three. Unless the Packers don't take this game seriously this should be men vs boys. Bills should be 0-2 and 14 games away from being able to take Locker with #1 overall. Bills 3, Packers 42
New England (-3) @ New York Jets
Until The Shanchise proves me wrong, I will continue to bet against the Jets. The Patriots hate the Jets and will be motivated to play well in the New Meadowlands stadium. A motivated Randy Moss was shut down by Revis island last year and he may catch a break as Revis has a reported minor hamstring injury. The game should stay close until the half, but the Patriots are going to have the Jets defense on the field for a lot of the game and should have them worn down by the fourth quarter. Patriot 27, Jets 10
Houston (-3) @ Washington
If this game was held in a couple weeks the line could easily be Houston by -7 or -9 here. The Redskins did not score an offensive TD in their game against the Cowboys. The Texans have a pretty good defense too and the Redskins aren't going to get a whole lot more production this week. Washington does have a good defense, which should keep this game close for awhile, but I'm a believer in the Texans and only giving up 3 points here is a steal this early in the season. Houston 24, Washington 9
I am also becoming a fan of the UNDER in the St. Louis vs Oakland (37.5) & Kansas City vs Cleveland (37.5) games.
Stay Away Games:
Bears @ Cowboys (-7.5)
What I also learned from the Cowboys and Redkins game was the Cowboys offense is struggling to score points early in the season and the Cowboys defense, especially their front four, is solid. The Redskins pulled off the upset of the Cowboys in Week 1, but mostly because of bad coaching by Wade Phillips to end the 1st half and having a banged up O-line. The O-line is getting healthier this week and the Cowboys will be motivated at home not wanting to be 0-2 in the tough NFC East.
The Bears bearly won their game against... wait for it... the Lions. If Calvin Johnson holds onto the ball at the end of the game, the Bears would have lost. This is not a good football team. They turned the ball over 4 times and didn't look that great against the Lions backup QB.
The reason the game is a stay away is because of the number of points the Cowboys are being asked to give up. If it drops to -7, then I would consider playing the Cowboys here - so watch the line on Sunday morning as it has dropped 1.5 points since it opened. More than a touchdown is a little dicey right now for the Cowboys to cover until they get their offense rolling, but there is no way I am backing a team with Jay Cutler at QB.
New Orleans (-6) @ San Francisco
After the terrible performance in Week #1, I can't trust the 49ers at all. This is a game they should be super fired up to play - might need to watch this one closely and take notes for the rest of season bets.
Plus a few other games too close to call or involving team I just can't trust :
Seattle (+3) @ Denver
Miami (+6) @ Minnesota
Baltimore (-3) @ Cinncinatti
Kick-off in about 12 hours... more updates to follow.
Bill Simmons had a good column this week talking about learning lessons from Week #1. The key is not to overreact to just one week of action as this is truly a league where on 'any given Sunday' anyone can win. You are not going to be right 90% of the time against the spread - that would be awesome - but by watching the games you can get a sense if you were on the 'right' track with your predictions or completely off base. If you handicap games correctly and monitor the line to get the best price during the week, then more often than not, you are gonna be successful over the long run.
The Monday Night game was a classic example. The Chargers played against a fired up Chiefs crowd, terrible weather, got burnt on some flukey special teams plays, and still had a chance to tie the game in the final seconds. The Chargers are the better team in the game - if it goes 5 quarters the Chargers win for sure - but the Chiefs won in a perfect storm of factors working against the Chargers. Lessons learned: the Chiefs are better than last year, but don't overhype them too much yet. The Chargers are a typically slow starting team which isn't as bad as you think.
Best Bets for Week #2:
Atlanta (-7) vs Arizona
I am still a believer in the Falcons - at least for one more week. The Steelers defense is probably one of the top 3 in the league again and the Cardinals will be a lot easier team to play against for the dirty birds. The Falcons are a good team at home, and will be very motivated coming off a close loss. Derek Anderson already has Larry Fitzgerald rolling his eyes with accuracy issues, and Beanie Wells might not play with an injury. I see the Falcons winning big here. Arizona 10, Falcons 38
Green Bay (-13.5) vs Buffalo
This one should be a lay up. In most power rankings out there the Packers are a top three team and the Bills are a bottom three. Unless the Packers don't take this game seriously this should be men vs boys. Bills should be 0-2 and 14 games away from being able to take Locker with #1 overall. Bills 3, Packers 42
New England (-3) @ New York Jets
Until The Shanchise proves me wrong, I will continue to bet against the Jets. The Patriots hate the Jets and will be motivated to play well in the New Meadowlands stadium. A motivated Randy Moss was shut down by Revis island last year and he may catch a break as Revis has a reported minor hamstring injury. The game should stay close until the half, but the Patriots are going to have the Jets defense on the field for a lot of the game and should have them worn down by the fourth quarter. Patriot 27, Jets 10
Houston (-3) @ Washington
If this game was held in a couple weeks the line could easily be Houston by -7 or -9 here. The Redskins did not score an offensive TD in their game against the Cowboys. The Texans have a pretty good defense too and the Redskins aren't going to get a whole lot more production this week. Washington does have a good defense, which should keep this game close for awhile, but I'm a believer in the Texans and only giving up 3 points here is a steal this early in the season. Houston 24, Washington 9
I am also becoming a fan of the UNDER in the St. Louis vs Oakland (37.5) & Kansas City vs Cleveland (37.5) games.
Stay Away Games:
Bears @ Cowboys (-7.5)
What I also learned from the Cowboys and Redkins game was the Cowboys offense is struggling to score points early in the season and the Cowboys defense, especially their front four, is solid. The Redskins pulled off the upset of the Cowboys in Week 1, but mostly because of bad coaching by Wade Phillips to end the 1st half and having a banged up O-line. The O-line is getting healthier this week and the Cowboys will be motivated at home not wanting to be 0-2 in the tough NFC East.
The Bears bearly won their game against... wait for it... the Lions. If Calvin Johnson holds onto the ball at the end of the game, the Bears would have lost. This is not a good football team. They turned the ball over 4 times and didn't look that great against the Lions backup QB.
The reason the game is a stay away is because of the number of points the Cowboys are being asked to give up. If it drops to -7, then I would consider playing the Cowboys here - so watch the line on Sunday morning as it has dropped 1.5 points since it opened. More than a touchdown is a little dicey right now for the Cowboys to cover until they get their offense rolling, but there is no way I am backing a team with Jay Cutler at QB.
New Orleans (-6) @ San Francisco
After the terrible performance in Week #1, I can't trust the 49ers at all. This is a game they should be super fired up to play - might need to watch this one closely and take notes for the rest of season bets.
Plus a few other games too close to call or involving team I just can't trust :
Seattle (+3) @ Denver
Miami (+6) @ Minnesota
Baltimore (-3) @ Cinncinatti
Kick-off in about 12 hours... more updates to follow.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Mexican Reporter Ines Sainz and the Jets Controversy
The Jets have had no problem staying in the news. Coach Rex Ryan has created a lot of 'swagger' after an unexpected playoff run this past season. An off season including 'Hard Knocks', the Revis holdout, losing stud DT Jenkins in Week 1, and now a controversy involving Mexican TV Reporter - Ines Sainz.
Ms. Sainz is an extremely attractive Mexican TV reporter who made news with allegation of being sexually harassed by the Jets at practice this past Saturday. A quick google search shows that this is no average sports reporter and it has been interesting to see every ones reactions. She has made her rounds on CBC, ABC, Fox and few other stations over the past few days. Follow this link to see more about this story:
http://video.foxnews.com/v/4337751/ny-jets-reporter-tells-her-story/
My early line move of the week has been the Patriots (-3) @ the Jets. Before The Sanchise stunk up the joint on Monday Night Football this line opened at EVEN in some books.
A poor MNF game, plus the news of stud DT Jenkins tearing his ACL for a second time (feel bad for that dude) and a dominate performance by the Patriots in Week #1 has moved the line a lot here. If you weren't able to get the EVEN, then strongly consider -3 before the line moves any more. (D$ was able to get this at Patriots (-2) last night. Bill Simmons had this as his lock of the week on his Tuesday podcast when picking lines with cousin Sal. Hope this BS homer jinx doesn't come into play here.
Some other interesting lines moves to ponder.
The Saints went from being 4.5 point favourites to 6 point favourites against the 49ers for the Monday night game. The 49ers are a motivated home dog getting nearly a touchdown - might be worth a look as we get closer to game night to see where the line settles.
The Lions have now become a 6 point dog after opening up +4 against the Eagles. Stafford is out which added points to the line and Vick will be the starter for Philly. Still can't decide on a side here so we might have another stay away game.
More picks and takes coming soon. D$ Out.
Ms. Sainz is an extremely attractive Mexican TV reporter who made news with allegation of being sexually harassed by the Jets at practice this past Saturday. A quick google search shows that this is no average sports reporter and it has been interesting to see every ones reactions. She has made her rounds on CBC, ABC, Fox and few other stations over the past few days. Follow this link to see more about this story:
http://video.foxnews.com/v/4337751/ny-jets-reporter-tells-her-story/
My early line move of the week has been the Patriots (-3) @ the Jets. Before The Sanchise stunk up the joint on Monday Night Football this line opened at EVEN in some books.
A poor MNF game, plus the news of stud DT Jenkins tearing his ACL for a second time (feel bad for that dude) and a dominate performance by the Patriots in Week #1 has moved the line a lot here. If you weren't able to get the EVEN, then strongly consider -3 before the line moves any more. (D$ was able to get this at Patriots (-2) last night. Bill Simmons had this as his lock of the week on his Tuesday podcast when picking lines with cousin Sal. Hope this BS homer jinx doesn't come into play here.
Some other interesting lines moves to ponder.
The Saints went from being 4.5 point favourites to 6 point favourites against the 49ers for the Monday night game. The 49ers are a motivated home dog getting nearly a touchdown - might be worth a look as we get closer to game night to see where the line settles.
The Lions have now become a 6 point dog after opening up +4 against the Eagles. Stafford is out which added points to the line and Vick will be the starter for Philly. Still can't decide on a side here so we might have another stay away game.
More picks and takes coming soon. D$ Out.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)