After a .500 start to the season, it's time to pick it up a notch. A deeper look at the Week #2 games was needed, and I'm looking to get hot this week with my picks. D$ is FIRED UP!
Bill Simmons had a good column this week talking about learning lessons from Week #1. The key is not to overreact to just one week of action as this is truly a league where on 'any given Sunday' anyone can win. You are not going to be right 90% of the time against the spread - that would be awesome - but by watching the games you can get a sense if you were on the 'right' track with your predictions or completely off base. If you handicap games correctly and monitor the line to get the best price during the week, then more often than not, you are gonna be successful over the long run.
The Monday Night game was a classic example. The Chargers played against a fired up Chiefs crowd, terrible weather, got burnt on some flukey special teams plays, and still had a chance to tie the game in the final seconds. The Chargers are the better team in the game - if it goes 5 quarters the Chargers win for sure - but the Chiefs won in a perfect storm of factors working against the Chargers. Lessons learned: the Chiefs are better than last year, but don't overhype them too much yet. The Chargers are a typically slow starting team which isn't as bad as you think.
Best Bets for Week #2:
Atlanta (-7) vs Arizona
I am still a believer in the Falcons - at least for one more week. The Steelers defense is probably one of the top 3 in the league again and the Cardinals will be a lot easier team to play against for the dirty birds. The Falcons are a good team at home, and will be very motivated coming off a close loss. Derek Anderson already has Larry Fitzgerald rolling his eyes with accuracy issues, and Beanie Wells might not play with an injury. I see the Falcons winning big here. Arizona 10, Falcons 38
Green Bay (-13.5) vs Buffalo
This one should be a lay up. In most power rankings out there the Packers are a top three team and the Bills are a bottom three. Unless the Packers don't take this game seriously this should be men vs boys. Bills should be 0-2 and 14 games away from being able to take Locker with #1 overall. Bills 3, Packers 42
New England (-3) @ New York Jets
Until The Shanchise proves me wrong, I will continue to bet against the Jets. The Patriots hate the Jets and will be motivated to play well in the New Meadowlands stadium. A motivated Randy Moss was shut down by Revis island last year and he may catch a break as Revis has a reported minor hamstring injury. The game should stay close until the half, but the Patriots are going to have the Jets defense on the field for a lot of the game and should have them worn down by the fourth quarter. Patriot 27, Jets 10
Houston (-3) @ Washington
If this game was held in a couple weeks the line could easily be Houston by -7 or -9 here. The Redskins did not score an offensive TD in their game against the Cowboys. The Texans have a pretty good defense too and the Redskins aren't going to get a whole lot more production this week. Washington does have a good defense, which should keep this game close for awhile, but I'm a believer in the Texans and only giving up 3 points here is a steal this early in the season. Houston 24, Washington 9
I am also becoming a fan of the UNDER in the St. Louis vs Oakland (37.5) & Kansas City vs Cleveland (37.5) games.
Stay Away Games:
Bears @ Cowboys (-7.5)
What I also learned from the Cowboys and Redkins game was the Cowboys offense is struggling to score points early in the season and the Cowboys defense, especially their front four, is solid. The Redskins pulled off the upset of the Cowboys in Week 1, but mostly because of bad coaching by Wade Phillips to end the 1st half and having a banged up O-line. The O-line is getting healthier this week and the Cowboys will be motivated at home not wanting to be 0-2 in the tough NFC East.
The Bears bearly won their game against... wait for it... the Lions. If Calvin Johnson holds onto the ball at the end of the game, the Bears would have lost. This is not a good football team. They turned the ball over 4 times and didn't look that great against the Lions backup QB.
The reason the game is a stay away is because of the number of points the Cowboys are being asked to give up. If it drops to -7, then I would consider playing the Cowboys here - so watch the line on Sunday morning as it has dropped 1.5 points since it opened. More than a touchdown is a little dicey right now for the Cowboys to cover until they get their offense rolling, but there is no way I am backing a team with Jay Cutler at QB.
New Orleans (-6) @ San Francisco
After the terrible performance in Week #1, I can't trust the 49ers at all. This is a game they should be super fired up to play - might need to watch this one closely and take notes for the rest of season bets.
Plus a few other games too close to call or involving team I just can't trust :
Seattle (+3) @ Denver
Miami (+6) @ Minnesota
Baltimore (-3) @ Cinncinatti
Kick-off in about 12 hours... more updates to follow.
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