NO -3.5 vs. ATL
Drew Brees is in that post-Super Bowl honeymoon period and that honeymoon period is the 4th quarter! He's going to find a way to win no matter what the situation and no matter how much time is on the clock. The Saints hit their stride with their 4th quarter drive to win on the road in San Fran last week. This is bad timing for an ATL team that is an upper echelon team but still trying to find their stride. A tough stride for Baby Ryan and Yippee-Kiyay Mr. Falcons in the Honeymoon Dome in Nawlins. Saints by 8.
KC +3 vs. SAN FRAN
KC is for real this year. That is, they are improved. Although their coaching staff is straight from the hand-me-downs in the Bill Belicheck section of Value Village, they did assemble a pretty good O-line and a solid defense. They are this season's dog of the year and should go 3-0 ATS after Sunday, with all 3 games as the underdog. San Fran is in disarray in the locker room, and got humbled in Seattle in Week 1 and had the Pillsbury Game of Week last week with their 4 turnovers vs. New Orleans. Most previews are saying "what if San Fran didn't commit 4 T.O's last week?", well the fact of the matter is that they did, and it looks like they're in-fighting will translate to the field again at Arrowhead. QB-wise, I'll take Matt Cassell over Alex "Tragic" Smith everyday of the week and ATS on Sunday!!
DET +11.5 @ MIN
The more I think of this game, the more I might stay away from this game on my ticket. As Bill Simmons says, it's smart to stick to your guns with your early season picks and I was thinking of Detroit covering more spreads this year. Detroit has indeed improved their line-up from last year. But this underdog hunch had a line-up with Matt Stafford at QB and not Shaun Hill. There isn't much faith in a QB named Shaun Hill that was cut to allow Tragic Smith to smear Joe Montana and Steve Young's good legacy at the 'Stick. It may be smart to lay off this dog bet to get one more week of scouting from Detroit, but Brett Favra's weekly series of The Housewives of Minnesota with the coaching staff is compounding the fact that he is 1 year overdue on his carton of milk of a post-GB career. Minnesota should ride the coat tails of AP from here on in, in order to find victories, but Ndamukong Suh and Detroit's D-line may limit AP to a victory under 11.5 points. Vikings by 9.
DAL @ HOU
STAY AWAY!!!!!! Dallas is the best marketed team in sports, as they have all the headlines and hoopla for an under-.500 team. They do have talent, but are way over-valued. Houston may have hit their stride finally, but last week's comeback victory to salvage a push at Washington solidified the Texans 3 year run as the NFL Jeckyl-n-Hyde team of year. As soon as you think Houston will blow a team out, they blow it, and as soon as you lose faith in the Texans, they dominate and cover the spread by half-time. Stay away from the Texans!!!! They're that flirty tease you tried all your game on in high school and all you got was a measly slow dance to Axel Rose and November Rain. Paulsen and Fouche said stay away and 20 years later, finally I can say, "LESSON LEARNED"
TENN @ NYG
Eli will bounce back, and Chris Johnson has yet to have his breakout Madden-Video-Game stat game. Flip a coin. Gonna stay away from this one.
NE -14.5 vs. BUF
I loved New England in Week 1 as their O-line was dominant vs. the Bengals. But now that they shipped Maroney out of town and Kevin Faulk is out for the year with a torn ACL, the Pats have no running attack to open up the passing attack. Oh, but wait the Bills have no talent, defense or coaching staff to stop Bill Simmons' man-crush on Tom Brady's long hair let alone the air attack from Wes Welker and Randy Moss. Pats by 20.
CLEV +11 @ BAL – Under 37.0 points
Seneca Wallace vs. Joe Flacco? Set the Over-Under at 21 points!!!!!!! That is a lock bet with the UNDER. Ray Rice may have a bust out game for over 200 yards this week, but even if this happens, the Ravens do a bad job of cashing in drives into the end zone. Ravens 17 Cleveland 9
PIT -3 @ TB – Under 33 Points Josh Freeman is a very under-rated QB for T-Bay, but Pittsburgh's defense is in a different stratosphere then every other defense in the NFL. As a joke 2 blogs ago, I said Pittsburgh was starting their 7th string QB. Now that joke is, in fact, reality. Label this game the Field Goal Bowl!!! Pit 13 TB 6. The lone touchdown for the Steel? A pick six by the defense of course. Freeman will have a solid season and career, and this physical beating he takes from the Steel Curtain will be a tough lesson for the Buccaneer QB.
CIN @ CAR
Odds are to take Cincinnati ATS with rookie QB Jimmie Clausen starting for the Kitties (nice one D$), but Cincinnati is another Houston-type Jeckly-n-Hyde team. I'm staying away, but what the hell: Cin 27 Car 17
WASH -4.5 @ STL
Ride the St Louis Rams road to double-digit spreads up to week 8 or 9. So Wash by 4.5? Deal!!!!
PHI @ JAX
I'm sticking to my guns here, with being a fan and fan alone of Michael Vick's Comeback. His amazing broken play rushes are still a spread killer, but they should cover at a Jacksonville home game with a home crowd that rivals that of a UBC Thunderbird home game. Can you say Black-Out!?!?
IND -6 @ DEN
Peyton is in Tom Izzo Betting Law territory. That is, you don't have to bet for Peyton all the time, but never bet against Peyton. But I may not bet for Peyton this week, as the Mile High mystique helps the Bronc even in their rebuilding year this season.
SD -4.5 @ SEA
game goes for the Qwest Field home field advantage. Pretty Jeckyl-n-hyde for the Shithawks, but SD should cover.
MIA -2.5 vs. NYJ
Typical New York over-hype once again with Coach Ryan and the Fraudchise at QB. Everyone, lets get the chant going: J!!! E!!! T!!! S!!! OVERVALUED!!! OVERVALUED!!! OVERVALUED!!! Plus the Fish defense is SICK!!! SICK!!! SICK!!! Fish by 10.
GB @ CHI
A good test for GB on the road at Soldier Field vs. an over-valued Bear squad that does have not bad stats on Offense. Gonna stay away.
I'll lay some money down on about 10 games, but lets set a 7 game parlay as such:
NO -3.5
KC +3
NE -14.5
Clev/Bal Under 37.0
Pit -3
Was -4.5
Mia -2.5
Gamble! Gamble!!!
CrazyDavo out!!
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