D$'s NFL Season Win Totals

Listening to the B.S. report and reading Chad Millman articles has D$ diving into a new topic - NFL Season Win Totals. The Vegas sharps put up totals in April and here are 5 teams that stuck out at me:


Bills : 5 Wins
This has to be easily one of the worst teams in the NFL this year. Even if you believe the C.J. Spiller hype, this team has maybe the worst offensive line in football, no quarterback, and play in the the AFC East which has potentially three playoff teams. A quick check of their schedule shows road games against the Packers, Vikings, Raven, and the Bengals - hard to imagine them winning any of those games or finishing better than 1-5 in their division. At best, they win 6 games, but more likely 4 or less. Bills fans should watch lots of Washington Huskies games this year to get a preview at their future QB - Jake Locker - who they will be taking with the first overall pick in the 2011 draft. Take the UNDER 5 wins (-120) .

Arizona : 7.5 Wins
Curt Warner retires and already the team has shown that they have no confidence that Matt Leinart can win any games for them in the pre-season. The Derek Anderson era is now upon us in Arizona. The NFC West is probably the weakest division in all of football, but winning eight games seems like a big stretch to me. Take the UNDER 7.5 wins (-105)

Tampa : 5.5 Wins
Youngest team in football. Maybe 3 players on the roster over the age of 30. They won three games last year. Do you really think that one draft is going to allow them to double their win total in 2010? I like their QB Freeman, but he got banged up in the pre-season, and this team is at least a year or two away from respectability. GIve me the UNDER 5.5 (+105)

Philladelphia : 8.5 Wins
Count me as another person who believes in Kevin Kolb and the Eagles offense. Kolb has some great weapons to throw the ball to and LeSean McCoy is decent running back. The NFC East is shaping up to be pretty tight division - but this really feels like a 9-7 or 10-6 team. Give me the OVER 8.5 Wins (+115)

Jets : 9.5 Wins
I am not believing the hype with this team at all. They have a very good defense that will keep them in a lot of games, but I don't like their QB at all. This team got lucky and barely squeaked into the playoffs last year because Peyton Manning and the Colts decided not to play the last two games of the regular season last year. If Revis holds out for any length of time coupled with injuries to Calvin Pace at LB, and depending on LT for production - this team looks more like 8-8 to me than 10-6. Give me the UNDER 9.5 Wins (-110)

Random Thoughts:
The NFC North has some interesting picks. Green Bay OVER 9.5 Wins looks mighty nice but the odds are now -190. Not much value there. Same goes with Minnesota UNDER 9.5 with odds at -160.

One last team to keep an eye on is the Cowboys who statistically have the toughest schedule in the league this year. With a few injuries in the pre-season to their O-line, it seems like it will be a big stretch for them to get to 11 wins.  The UNDER 10 Wins at EVEN money is worth a deeper look.