Saturday, September 24, 2011

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #3

Last week was a pretty even week for the EasyCovers staff.  Time to do some damage on the books with our NFL Week #3 picks..... here we go! :

Early Games

San Francisco @ Cincinnati  (-3) 
Up until late in the week D$ was excited to take the Bengals at home, but WR Jerome Simpson gets caught with a boatload of marijuana at his home this week and might not play.  Add Jordan Shipley out for the season with an ACL tear and general bad mojo exists in Cincy.  The Niners aren't much better after blowing a 10 point lead at home in the 4th quarter last week and their offense hasn't looked too great with Alex Smith as starting QB.  We got a west coast team coming across the country to play an early game here, but in the end we recommend staying away from playing a side and lean towards to the under 40.5 total with these two questionable offenses.

New England (-7.0) @ Buffalo
The Bills have a gamer in Fitzpatrick that is for sure and the team showed a lot of heart coming back in the second half last week to win in the final seconds.  Public perception has the Bills a little better than expected and has kept this line around a touchdown all week.  The Patriots are one of the 2 best teams in football and are the class of the AFC East.  Many worry there could be a backdoor cover here, D$ is not one of those people. Make sure to grab -7.0 (before it rises above that key number) and ride the Pats.
(Note:  The Pats make an excellent Teaser play this week - winners of 15 row vs Buffalo.)

Houston @ New Orleans (-4.0)
Houston has looked good beating the lowly Colts and Fish, but face their first real test at the Superdome this week.  We will likely find out how good the Texans really are based on this performance.  For that reason we can't recommend either side at the moment and recommend taking notes.

NY Giants @ Philadelphia (-9)
Michael Vick is confirmed to start on Sunday in this division rivalry which explains the large spread.  The Giants were lucky to win by 12 on Monday Night and are dealing with a lot of injuries at the moment.  Eli looks pretty average and expect the only way this game stays close is for him to not turn over the ball and exploit the weakness of the Eagles D which is the defending against the run.  The Eags should keep things simple at home and not expose their Vick to many extra hits and should win here - but NOT a best bet for us.

Miami (+3) @ Cleveland 
Don't have a super strong opinion on this game.  Miami is away from home which actually could benefit them as they are just 1 for last 12 at home.  Cleveland has been a bit of a disappointment compared to what was expected coming out of pre-season.  Peyton Hillis has is feeling sick on Saturday with a Fever and expect Cleveland to continue struggling if he not 100%.   Like the Fish to bull a minor upset here on the road.

Denver @ Tennessee (-7)
The Titans are a bit shizzo to predict.  They appeared to be the better team against Jacksonville but lost.  They were predicted to lose last week against Baltimore but took advantage of a flat team.  Clearly Denver is the inferior team here and dealing with some key injuries and shaky QB play so we would back Tennessee or nothing here.  Leaning on a stay away as 7 just seams like a lot for Tennessee to cover.

Lions (-3) @ Minnesota
Count D$ as another person who is drinking the Lions Kool-Aid!  I fully realize this sets up to be a bit of TRAP GAME, (public perception high on Lions and low at moment for Vikes), but gonna keep riding the Leos until they get injured or lose a game.

Jacksonville @ Carolina (-3)
Rookie QB, Blaine Gabbert, will be making his first start for the Jags on Sunday.  This has the Vegas Sharps liking their chops as the Jags are on the road and only getting 3 points against Cam Newton and the Panthers. Newton has been the story of the early NFL season with his exciting play making ability.  We like him to get his first win of the NFL season this week.

Stay tuned for our late game predictions...... coming soon.

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