Thursday, September 8, 2011

AFC NORTH: The Black and Blue Division


First of all, this whole division gets a friggin gift in the schedule by being paired with the NFC West in the crossover games in the schedule!

ATS-wise, the AFC Norris Division is a horrible bet especially with the Pitt-Balt-Clev triumphirate. When they play each other, it’s a defensive pick ‘em game, and usually a tough under bet as over/under spreads should be in the teens. That may be good for a To-Catch-a-Predator captive, but not good for us gambling degenerates.

Let’s break it down:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Bottom line, they are the best run franchise in sports. Apologies to the Pats, Vancouver Canucks and of course the LA Dodgers, there is no better owners then the Rooney’s and no one runs a tighter ship then Head Coach, Mike Tomlin. Any comparisons to the Cincinnati Jail-gals from the Hines Ward DUI to James Harrison’s Commissioner Goodell threats have been taken care of a long long time ago by Coach Tomlin and Mr. Rooney.

Pittsburgh is a Top 5 team. That is no secret to anybody. But what could be a winner is that the suddenly powerful offense could steal us some wins on the initially low over-under bets. Cue in the To-Catch-a-Predator teen over/under spreads for divisional games, and they could be some easy over wins.

Speaking of To-Catch-a-Predator, credit must be given to Big Ben Roethlisberger for playing as well as he did after his suspension to start last season. Add in a full off-season where he married a non-co-ed and will be coming into the season just as sharp, if not more. Regardless of one’s opinion of Big Ben, he is one of the elite QB’s in the league with the likes of Brady, Rodgers, Brees and a healthy Peyton.

BALTIMORE RAVENS
Chemistry is the biggest question with the Ravens offense, followed by their aging defense. The Ravens lost Derrick Mason and Todd Heap, in the receiving corps but picked up a great receiver in Lee Evans from B-Lo. Will this be a great fit with Evans and Joe Flacco? Plus, the addition of FB Vonta Leach from Houston and RB Ricky Williams from The Fish may or may not be a great fit for tailback, Ray Rice. All this depends on chemistry. Will Flacco gel with Evans and will Vonta be OK with as limited amount of touches with Baltimore as he got in Houston?

And defense? Ray Lewis finds a way. That guy is more determined than a Maria Sharapova grunt. And Ed Reed will add to his Hall of Fame safety resume. But age creeps up to all the greats, so when will it happen? This year or next?

The Ravens are a great team with lotsa questions. Questions that will quickly be answered in Week 1 at home v. Pittsburgh. This game means more to Baltimore than it does for Pittsburgh. So a Pittsburgh cover with a definite over or a typical Black-n-Blue division match-up with Baltimore squeaking out a 13-10 game is a possibility.

This reaks of a stay-away game. Enjoy in on the Sunday Ticket, but I’ll be leaving this one alone.

CLEVELAND BROWNS
Talk about the NFL’s version of the loveable losers! The Browns made some strides last year with the breakout year by Peyton Hillis, and an underrated defense. There will be more strides made from the ousting last years Head Coach, Eric Non-genius for up and coming coach, Pat Shurmur.

2nd year QB, Colt McCoy is made for Cleveland as an under-sized, under-rated QB who will find ways to compete and win. If he eeks out some early wins, he’ll be a Dawg Pound favorite that hasn’t been seen since Bernie Kosar.

Cleveland is 2-3 years from being a legit team, but this years schedule vs. similarly questionable teams could inflate their win totals with home games vs. Cincy, Miami, Tennessee and Seattle to start the season. Their road game sked starts with trips to a possibly Peyton-less Colts, pathetic Raiders, San Fran and Texan team. They could be 4-4 at worst to start the season, but these spreads will be extremely tough to handicap.

Staying away from the Browns as well.

CINCINNATI BENGALS
Hmmm, new first year new QB? New first year receiver corps? New first year Offensive Coordinator? Jailbird Running Back who’s productivity is set to burst?

These are ingredients that are less than that of an expansion team! Welcome your UFL Cincinnati Bengals! The Bengals will be a gift game vs. the equally poor NFC East. Cue the Toilet Bowl Game of the Young Century on October 30th with Cincy at Seattle.

Prepare to win some cash in the early weeks as it'll take some time for the spreads to get to the +14 to +16 range they should be for the Bend-yet-break-gals

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