Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #3 (Late games)

Kansas City @ San Diego (-15)

The Chiefs appear to be leading the pack early in the season for the 'Suck for Luck' sweepstakes after getting mauled by the Lions and Bills.  They will be facing an angry and motivated Chargers team.  Huge amount of points to put up for a Norv Turner team, who is a little banged up, but we might just do it since KC is that bad.  (We go against Walterfootball.com who has the Chiefs this week as their lock of the month.)

NY Jets @ Oakland (+3.0)
Bad spot for the Jets who travel across the country to play a decent Raider squad and giving points.  The side to play is the RAIDERS.

Baltimore (-4.5) @ St. Louis
Good News: The Rams could start the season 0-3 and still could very much be only be one game out of first in the NFC West after this week.
Bad News:  The Rams are really banged up right now and Steven Jackson will not be 100%.
Expecting the Ravens to bounce back here after a big let down last week.

Atlanta (+1.0) @ Tampa Bay
Yikes, this game is too close to pick here.  Jaaaaaash Freeman and the Bucs seem to turn it on for the second half roaring back both weeks to cover the second half spreads and last week winning the game outright against the Vikings.  The Falcons got lucky that Michael Vick got knocked out of their game last week and were able to escape with a win.  Atlanta has disappointed from pre-season hype and don't like them a ton on the road.  Best bet here is to wait until the second half - if Tampa is down then bet them hard as they got the Falcons exactly where they want 'em!

Arizona @ Seattle (+3.5)
Wow, Vegas really thinks that Seattle is bad as even with the Qwest (now CenturyLink) home field advantage they are still taking points at home to a questionable Cardinals team.  The Seahawks are pretty crappy and appear to also be 'sucking for luck' right now, but if they are going to win this would be the week as they face Atlanta and the Giants after this which means they could be 0-5 heading to their bye week.  Recommend not betting this game as it might entice you to actually watch it.  Save your eyes and cash for other games.

Green Bay (-4.0) @ Chicago
The Bears were exposed last week vs the Saints and I expect the Packers to bring their 'A' game in this division rivalry as opposed to the 'C' effort they displayed in Carolina last week.  The Bears can't protect Cutler and Green Bay should be able to get in his face all day.  Aaron Rodgers when on can't be stopped and this should lead to victory for the Pack.  Expect the first half to be close and then Green Bay to pull away in second half. Like the UNDER quite a bit in this matchup too.

Pittsburgh (-11.0) @ Indianapolis
Peyton Manning is starting for the Colts.... just kidding!  For all the Colts fans out there you are officially the other team which is 'sucking for luck' right now.  (Circle Week #5 - Oct 9th - on your calendar for the "Suck for Luck Bowl" vs the Chiefs.)  An excellent plan to take this year off and find an heir for PM, as they clearly won't be winning many games without him.  The Colts will show a lot of pride, but are no match for the Steelers in this contest.  Don't over think this one.

Washington (+4.0) @ Dallas
Even if Romo was healthy and not suffering from broken ribs last week, and even if Miles Austin was in the lineup, and even if Felix Jones and Des Bryant weren't banged up we would still like the Redskins this week.
Because of all this, we like them even more.

We know that Rex Grossman is not real sexy, but the Redskins D is legit and as long as Rex doesn't turn the ball over the Redskins should have a good shot to win outright here.  Hard to believe this team has a shot of being 3-0 out of the gate, pre-season take was dead wrong on this squad.  (Harder games to come for the Redskins who may be a fade in the second half of the season with a treacherous schedule.)

Good luck to everyone this week... best bets to come before kickoff via Twitter @easycovers

D$ OUT

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #3

Last week was a pretty even week for the EasyCovers staff.  Time to do some damage on the books with our NFL Week #3 picks..... here we go! :

Early Games

San Francisco @ Cincinnati  (-3) 
Up until late in the week D$ was excited to take the Bengals at home, but WR Jerome Simpson gets caught with a boatload of marijuana at his home this week and might not play.  Add Jordan Shipley out for the season with an ACL tear and general bad mojo exists in Cincy.  The Niners aren't much better after blowing a 10 point lead at home in the 4th quarter last week and their offense hasn't looked too great with Alex Smith as starting QB.  We got a west coast team coming across the country to play an early game here, but in the end we recommend staying away from playing a side and lean towards to the under 40.5 total with these two questionable offenses.

New England (-7.0) @ Buffalo
The Bills have a gamer in Fitzpatrick that is for sure and the team showed a lot of heart coming back in the second half last week to win in the final seconds.  Public perception has the Bills a little better than expected and has kept this line around a touchdown all week.  The Patriots are one of the 2 best teams in football and are the class of the AFC East.  Many worry there could be a backdoor cover here, D$ is not one of those people. Make sure to grab -7.0 (before it rises above that key number) and ride the Pats.
(Note:  The Pats make an excellent Teaser play this week - winners of 15 row vs Buffalo.)

Houston @ New Orleans (-4.0)
Houston has looked good beating the lowly Colts and Fish, but face their first real test at the Superdome this week.  We will likely find out how good the Texans really are based on this performance.  For that reason we can't recommend either side at the moment and recommend taking notes.

NY Giants @ Philadelphia (-9)
Michael Vick is confirmed to start on Sunday in this division rivalry which explains the large spread.  The Giants were lucky to win by 12 on Monday Night and are dealing with a lot of injuries at the moment.  Eli looks pretty average and expect the only way this game stays close is for him to not turn over the ball and exploit the weakness of the Eagles D which is the defending against the run.  The Eags should keep things simple at home and not expose their Vick to many extra hits and should win here - but NOT a best bet for us.

Miami (+3) @ Cleveland 
Don't have a super strong opinion on this game.  Miami is away from home which actually could benefit them as they are just 1 for last 12 at home.  Cleveland has been a bit of a disappointment compared to what was expected coming out of pre-season.  Peyton Hillis has is feeling sick on Saturday with a Fever and expect Cleveland to continue struggling if he not 100%.   Like the Fish to bull a minor upset here on the road.

Denver @ Tennessee (-7)
The Titans are a bit shizzo to predict.  They appeared to be the better team against Jacksonville but lost.  They were predicted to lose last week against Baltimore but took advantage of a flat team.  Clearly Denver is the inferior team here and dealing with some key injuries and shaky QB play so we would back Tennessee or nothing here.  Leaning on a stay away as 7 just seams like a lot for Tennessee to cover.

Lions (-3) @ Minnesota
Count D$ as another person who is drinking the Lions Kool-Aid!  I fully realize this sets up to be a bit of TRAP GAME, (public perception high on Lions and low at moment for Vikes), but gonna keep riding the Leos until they get injured or lose a game.

Jacksonville @ Carolina (-3)
Rookie QB, Blaine Gabbert, will be making his first start for the Jags on Sunday.  This has the Vegas Sharps liking their chops as the Jags are on the road and only getting 3 points against Cam Newton and the Panthers. Newton has been the story of the early NFL season with his exciting play making ability.  We like him to get his first win of the NFL season this week.

Stay tuned for our late game predictions...... coming soon.

NFL WEEK 2 PREVIEW

Lets get on with a quick run through for Week 2:

CHI @ NO -7

Take Nawlins because of their offensive power even though their defense got worked at Green Bay last week. The Bears’ offense looked pretty solid with an offensive line that gave redemption to overrated fantasy leaguer, Matt Forte. He had gaping hoes to run through and got plenty of YAC during well-executed screens. The Bears defense showed it’s typical freakiness with Brian Urlacher leading the charge. The rational side of the brain is saying to take the Bears and the points, but my gut is saying that New Orleans will cover with their offensive output and the Superdome advantage.

KC @ DET -9

Consider this a gift that Detroit’s not favored by the 14-15 points the score should end up as. KC is brutal in all facets where Stafford and Calvin Johnson will be having a hayday with Chiefs safety Eric Berry out for the season with a torn ACL. The Lions D-Line should have a dominant performance over the Pats sloppy seconds!

JAX @ NYJ -9

The Jets should dominate Jacksonville, although there will be no money laid on this game. The Jets and Cowboys both showed, last week, that they are 2 talented and potentially dominating teams, but they will implode at various points either with their QB blunders or Coaching blunder calls. The timing of these implosions is extremely unpredictable, so the Jets and Cowboys are stay away games until further notice.

OAK @ BUF -4

Oakland didn’t look as bad as we thought last week, and Buffalo looked way better than anybody thought last week, even if it was at a horrible Kansas City team. B-Lo QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick remains a gamer despite his lack of the righteous playoff beard from last year. The Bills defense was impressive last week as well. The crappy thing is that at press time, Buffalo’s -4 spread was at -115. This shows that there is plenty of money coming in for the Bills as it did last week right before kick-off. Unfortunately, the Bills won’t be an underrated team ATS and they won’t be as easy money as we’d like them to be.

ARI @ WASH -4

Two crappy teams, but Sexy Rexy Grossman gets another chance for 300 yards vs. an atrocious Cardinal secondary. Kevin Kolb should become a stabilizing QB for the Cards, but will need a week or two to gain the needed consistency.

BAL -6.5 @ TEN

The bottom-line with the Titans is that Matt Hasselbeck will be benched in lieu of rookie Jake Locker by Week 9. And Chris Johnson will bust out and get 1200 yards for the season. But his rust and the Titans slow start in Week 1 will give the Raven’s veteran defense the upper hand, and Baltimore’s offense is running at full throttle. If this game was slated later in the season, then the Chris Johnson factor would make it intriguing, but tomorrow should be a Ravens double-digit victory.

SEA @ PIT -14.5

Tough to give a Pitt team that turned the ball over 7 times in Week 1 a 3 score head start ATS even if it is versus the Seattle Shithawks. But Mike Tomlin is the best coach in sports (!), and he will have the Steelers recovering from their Week 1 blunder. Rational thinking says to take Seattle +14.5 because of the high spread being applied too early into the season, but my hunch says to take the Steel. (Not Blue Steel, as at the time I was typing this preview, Zoolander was on the tube……next to Mark Wahlberg’s “The Lovely Bones”, the worst movie ever!)

GB -10.5 @ CAR

Welcome to the NFL, Cam Newton!

TB @ MIN -3

At press time, the Vikes are 3 point favorites but at -115 odds. This might suggest that more money is coming in for Jaaaaash Freeman and the Bucs. This is a match up between 2 potential bracket busters, but I’ll give the tie-breaker to the Vikes and the Adrian Peterson factor. I agree with Bill Simmons, in that, after this loss, the Bucs could very well win their next 5 games.

CLE -2 @ IND

Indianapolis should be in Week 2 of their 4-week state of shock dealing with the loss of Peyton. And Cleveland should learn from last week that giving Colt McCoy 40 throws and Peyton Hillis only 17 touches is like giving Charlie Sheen the key to Pablo Escobar’s secret vault….a bad idea! If the Browns learn to ride Hillis down the Colts throat, this should be enough to beat the Indianapolis Andrew Luck All-Stars.

DAL -3 @ SF

See the JAX @ NYJ. Stay away from Romo and the ‘Boys!

HOU @ MIA +3

Total scout game. If you wanna lay money down, then we’re going straight Law of Costanza here and going with the Fish. This is due to the fact that my hunch is all for the Texans, which means that the Fish should win outright. Just like George…..if every Houston pick by CrazyDavo is wrong, then the opposite must be correct.

CIN +3.5 @ DEN

Same as previous takes regarding the Broncos….when the whole Bronco nation is craving for the start of a third string QB, then there is not much options in the Mile High City. Especially since, 1^st string QB, Kyle Orton had Kobe Bryant-like tantrums at his own teammates in Week 1. Take the Bengals and their surprisingly good defense.

PHI -3 @ ATL

Take the Michael Vick homecoming. Plus ATL looked really bad on both sides of the ball last week. Their lack of tackling most likely will not be rectified in 1 week. The main question for the Eagles is their offensive line, as Vick was forced to scramble a lot, however Vick seems to find a way to counteract this with his improving arm.

STL +7 @ NYJ

Both teams are suffering many injuries. Flip a coin on the ugliest Monday night show since Shasta McNasty hit the airwaves!

CrazyDavo out!

WEEK 1 AFTERNOON GAMES RECAP

CAR 21 @ ARI 28

Spread closed at ARI -7

Result: PUSH

EasyCovers Bet: ARI -7 (Push)

New Arizona QB Kevin Kolb came as expected with a 300-yard performance, however getting those yards and completions in an ugly fashion. If anything, Kolb adds much needed stability from the Anderson/Leinart failed duo since the Kurt Warner hayday. Hopefully Kolb and Larry Fitzgerald will find more chemistry with Fitzgerald getting 3 receptions from only 7 throws in his direction.

Speaking of chemistry, Carolina Receiver, Steve Smith seems to have found a QB to throw to him in order to quiet his complaining the past couple of seasons. However, the Cardinals secondary was atrocious with huge gaps for Smith to get off 2 big touchdowns and no tackling for a lot of Carolina YAC! (Yards After Catch). QB Cam Newton had an amazing debut, albeit somewhat inflated due to this horrible Cardinal coverage.

Overall, Arizona still needs to figure it out on both sides of ball next week @ WAS vs. a now-over-valued Rex Grossman (who fluked out a 300 yard day at home vs. a hapless New York Touch Football Giants). Depending on the opening spreads for next week, we’re staying away from ARI @ WAS.

MIN 17 @ SD 24

Spread closed at SD -8.5

Result MIN +8.5

EasyCovers Bet: SD -8.5 (Loss)

As expected from the Chargers and a bit of a surprise from the Vikings.

The strengths from San Diego came as expected from Philip Rivers being Philip Rivers, and the Chargers Special Teams being the Chargers Special Teams. Minnesota opened the game with a Kick-off return to the house with their Place Kicker getting knocked out the game to boot. This blew our cover by SD, as they had to go for it on 4^th down inside the 25 yard line in the first half, rather than kicking the field goal. Leave it to the incompetence of Norv Turner to have no emergency back-up field goal kickers. Heck, N-Dominate Suh was an emergency place kicker for Detroit last year! Thanks a lot Norv!

Minnesota exploited their obvious strength in Adrian Peterson carrying the ball for typical AP yards. Plus any questions regarding Donavan McNabb was answered by his 15 total pass attempts. Even Gus Frerotte could hand the ball to AP for Viking W’s. And that’s the post-self inflicted concussion Gus Frerotte from his Redskin days!

Minnesota will squeak wins from AP and the dirty speed of Percy Harvin. (let’s not forget the Minnesota defense…..we haven’t forgotten that sweet INT Mr. Allen. Damn, an All- Pro Defensive Lineman in pass coverage?!?)

But the Vikes have Tampa Bay at home next week, which is a stay away between 2 evenly matched tweener teams.

SEA 17 SF 33

Spread closed at SF -6

Result: SF -6

EasyCovers Bet: SF -6 (Won)

Take off the 2 Ted Ginn special teams touchdowns, and the actual score would indicate how atrocious both teams are. Tavaris “Non-Action” Jackson looked like the second coming of Dave Krieg….mediocre! The Niner’s coverage left Jesse Ventura from Predator-type gaps for Seahawks’ receivers to extend drives.

Both rushing games were non-existent, especially the lac of running gaps for Frank “Your Mothers A” Gore. And Alex Smith is still the Steve Lavin of the NFL with his record tenure as a 7-year interim QB.

Cue in an opening spread of PIT -13 at home to SEA next week, which is a huge stay away, since the Shithawks are crappy, but will PIT wake up next week from their flat tire this week at Baltimore?

NYTFG 14 WAS 28

Spread closed at NYTFG -1

Result: WAS +1

EasyCover Bet: NYTFG -1 (Loss)

Trust the blog!!! D$ previewed to take the Skins. That’s on CrazyDavo for convincing him to take the New York Touch Football Giants!

Were the pre-season injuries to key Giants defensive players the reason Rexy Grossman looked so sexy with his 300-yard day?

Also, the NYTFG Offense was non-existent with their yards gained early in drives, but Peyton Jr. couldn’t deliver on 3^rd down or get the Giants inside the red zone during these failed drives vs. a weak Skins D.

Eli Manning seems to be this generations Joe Namath by living off one Super Bowl victory while doing nothing else in his career. Cue in an Eli drunken slobering pass onto Suzie Kolber’s neice 30 years down the road.

The EasyCovers Insanity Staff LOVES LOVES LOVES the spread next week with NYTFG at home to an under-rated St. Louis Rams. More to come throughout the week on this game!

That’s it. So far we’ve taken a hit in Week 1 ATS, but this is due to an unprecedented amount of turnover’s not in our favor. This is not a Vancouver Canucks-like excuse with too many injuries by the time the puck was dropped in Game 7, but it is what it is.

Onto Monday night! We like the Pats to deliver by double digits in Miami. But we are still interested to see the up and coming defense of The Fish, especially from CFL convert, Cam Wake.

And we’re staying from the AFC West Toilet Bowl game in the Mile High City.

Good night nooooooooooooowww!

CrazoDavo and D$. Out!

WEEK 1 MORNING GAME RECAPS

Merry Christmas! Here’s a quick take on the morning games and the Thursday games! It’s so good to be back! …..and Brett Favra’s nads are no where to be found!

Enjoy!

NO 34 @ GB 42

Pretty much a preview of the NFC Championship game. The difference was Aaron Rodgers was more of a surgeon than Drew “Live Crew” Brees and the Pack Attack’s defense was impressive especially with the clutch goal-line ATS-saving goal-line stance with no time on the clock.

IND 7 @ HOU 34

No take on Houston just yet. They have a lot to prove in order to take the AFC South which is still there’s to lose. Tennessee and Jacksonville still left a lot to be desired. Tattoo the AFC South as the Ugly Betty Division of the NFL as all division games between any of those 4 teams will be as attractive as a desperate Cougar at last call wondering down Granville Street.

Indy has slapped Cincinnati in the face as far as the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes go, and their college scouts will be seen with 50-yard seats at every Stanford game this year! Paint Andrew Luck as the next Aaron Rodgers as the Colts will pull off a 1996-97 San Antonio Spurs sandbag season by getting the first Twin Tower QB tandem since Steamin’ Willie Beamon and Cap Rooney.

The Colts looked brutal! Signing David Garrard or Brett Favre won’t help at all for the Colts, they were in utter shock at how brutal they are and will be for the year!

BUF 41 @ KC 7

All takes were correct in how tragic KC will be at all facets of the ball. They pretty much are stacked with New England Patriots cast offs with the Head Coach, Off/Def Coordinators and QB being Patriots sloppy seconds for the Chiefs. They are the Sean Avery Team of the NFL. Sorry Burtzy!

There was no timing on offense and a tackle was as rare as a Jeff Burt facial hair! Cue KC learning the same lessons as Denver did by eventually cleaning house from their Patriots experiment ala Josh McDaniels being shipped out of the Mile High.

B-Lo did not disappoint and look poised to be this year’s Detroit Lions Ascention-Outta-the-Basement Team. Ryan Fitzpatrick looked sharp, as did the B-Lo defense. Although they will rename nameless for the whole year, they will continue to surprise. It looks like the sharps have already caught up on the Bills in terms of laying down the chee$e as the line moved 2 whole points before kickoff in Buffalo’s favor.

PIT 7 @ BAL 35

Right takes for this game, except for opposite teams. The thought was that Pitt’s offense would be high octane and Baltimore looked great to go with the Steelers rust.

Quoth-The-Ravens are deeeeeeep at running back with Ray Rice going Ray Rice with the depth of Ricky Williams adding great depth. From the crazy channel surfing of Sunday Ticket, I was unable to see any carries by Vonta Leach.

Age has not creaped up on Ray Lewis and Ed Reed with their key interceptions. The Ravens have already sprinted out of the AFC blocks with Pitt pulling their best Usain Bolt impression with their false start. 7 turnovers will do that to a team. Ouch Steel-town!

TEN 14 @ JAX 16

No real take on Jax just yet, other than new starting QB Cade McNown didn’t look that outta place for the Jags. The Jags did what they needed to do to squeak a W from the hapless Titans.

Matt Hasselbeck is not the answer for Tennessee. Bad pre-season take on my part. And Chris Johnson did look rusty coming out of his holdout in the shortened Texan pre-season.

This result is neither teams fault, but rather CBS’. If they weren’t a-holes to Gus Johnson, this would have been infused with Gus Karma and the Titan comeback attempt late in the 4^th quarter would have given us a last second win and a Gus heart Attack Call.

ATL 12 @ CHI 30

The Yippe-Ki-Yay Mr. Falcons looked horrible on both sides of the ball. They’re defensive line left gaping holes never before seen since Jesse Ventura’s chest in Predator, for Bear RB Matt Forte to resurrect his fantasy resume. Their linebackers couldn’t make a tackle if their lives depended on it. Any coverage from their secondary was as lacking as Peyton Manning’s neck rehab media coverage over the summer! The Falcons look bad! Gimme an O! “Ohhhh”! Gimme a “verrated!”….what’s that spell!?!?!?

The jury is still out for Chicago. But they may make us some money next week as this inflated score based on Falcon turnovers may over-inflate the Bears spread next week @ New Orleans. This should be a juicy spread as the handicappers may not give as much points for the Saints from their loss to Green Bay and give too much for the Da Bears. Look for a juicy spread for the Saints on Monday!

PHI 31 @ STL 13

Philly did what they did to cover. The score is a bit inflated, as the game was in question for the majority of the game. The schedule for Philly and their huge media hype is an extended pre-season until Week friggin 12 at home to the Pats. Look for the Eagles to cover in ugly fashion and take advantage of a super-easy schedule this year!

Speaking of schedules, St. Louis has a murderers row of game every second week until mid-Nov at home to Baltimore, New Orleans and at Green Bay. We’ll get a good take on Sam Bradford’s handle of the pass rush and secondary as Philly came as advertised today.

The scary thing about the Eagles’ secondary is they STILL can improve. They are licking their collective chops at the thought of covering Matt Ryan duck passes next week!

DET 27 @ TB 20

Pretty much another as-advertised game between these two evenly matched tweener teams. This tough home opener loss by the Bucs may give us some points next week at Minnesota who is, at press time, giving San Diego a run for their money.

Detroit’s defense, particularly Still-Dominate Suh hasn’t digressed as much as I thought they would. Cue in a tough over-valued spread next week vs. KC in Pontiac Superdome Jr. Well, actually……anything under double digits will be a gift vs. the hapless Chiefs.

CIN 27 @ CLE 17

Cincinnati didn’t look as pathetic as we all thought, especially on defense. However, Cleveland did not utilize any player properly with Peyton Hillis getting a pedestrian amount of carries with only 17. The Browns Offensive Coordinator play calling was reminiscent of a Kenny Bania set and forcing 40 friggin passes from Colt McCoy. Ovaltine!?!?!? That IS NOT gold Jerry!!!!

Countdown to Kickoff - Week #1

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!!

Thursday night we were treated to an amazing kickoff to the 2011 NFL season. Would not be surprised if the Packers and Saints play each other in late January. Now it's time to take a quick look at Sunday games. Lots already written out there if you read Grantland, Walterfootball.com, or any NFL site but we will try to bring you our best bets:

Tennessee (+1) @ JACKSONVILLE
We like the Titans because they didn't fire their starting QB less than a week before the season starts.

Pittsburgh (+1.5) @ BALTIMORE
We like the Steelers because of their lightning quick receivers and solid D. Expecting the Ravens to take a step back this year and struggle to be a wildcard team.

ST. LOUIS (+4.5) vs Philadelphia
We like the Rams because the Eagles are over-rated. Eagles o-line is shaky and their young LBs are too so expect Vick needing to run a lot and we like the Rams to pull a mini upset in week 1.

WASHINGTON (+3) vs Giants
We like the Redskins because there is too much bad mojo surrounding the G-men. Washington appears to have a running game and Injuries keep mounting in New York. Taking the live dog which is a trend with our picks this week.

New England (-7) @ MIAMI
We like the Patriots because the fish will be terrible. Expecting Coach Sporano to be the first NFL coach fired this year and the Patriots should be the class of the AFC East.

In other leans this week we like San Diego and Atlanta to cover their games. Going back and forth on Lions vs TB but leaning Bucs at home (-1) with the small spread.

Good luck this week! Let's do some damage to the books!
D$ Out

AFC WEST PREVIEW

If it wasn’t for San Diego, this division would mirror the under .500 playoff antics of the NFC West last year!

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

The Chargers are tucked in the bottom left corner of the country for a most likely quiet drubbing of fellow AFC rivals and a relatively easy non-divisonal schedule. Phillip Rivers will enjoy a full season throwing to Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. A quiet 12 win season could be in our midst.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

No faith in Matt Cassell! The Chiefs won us some money early on last year, but faded like a Kid-n-Play haircut late in the season last year and are coming into this year with little to no momentum. I’m going on a hunch upset pick from the Bills over KC in Week 1.

OAKLAND RAIDERS

How in the hell has no reality TV suit scheduled a daily reality show on the circus that is the Oakland Raiders? The circus moves of owner Al Davis would go great between “Ice Road Truckers” and friggin American Pickers” (!?!?!?) Case in point, sacrificing a 3^rd round pick in next year’s draft for Ohio State “QB” Terrelle Pryor. They did everyone a favor, as now that’s he’s finally drafted and out of the Ohio State spotlight, he’ll fade into obscurity quicker than Heidi and Spencer.

The Raiders went from being a sub par team last year to losing their All-World Cornerback and Pro Bowl Tight End. This does not bode well for the Raider hooligans. Cue in a future Oakland County Riot Inquiry….oh wait there’s no need for inquiry’s on Raider fan’s antics that occur on a weekly basis.

DENVER BRONCOS

John Elway at the helm? He’s got as tough a job to try save a badly run organization under ex-Pats offensive whiz, Josh McDaniels. It’s tough to trust any spreads being covered when all the press and interest in the team is in the 3^rd string QB in Wholesome Tim Tebow.

AFC SOUTH PREVIEW

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Count Peyton out until at least mid-November according to reports from espn.com. But now that they have revealed that he has had 3 neck surgeries in 19 months for a herniated disc, and that this most recent surgery was a “one-level cervical neck fusion” reaks of the likelihood that Peyton could miss the entire season.

Peyton has now officially hit his Stone Cold Steve Austin years. While most will continue to eagerly wait for his return, when he actually does, Indy fans will be so happy to see him under Colts Center, Jeff Saturday that few will realize that the Peyton Manning we once knew will never be the same. That stinks, and I hope I’m wrong, but we’ll probably see Peyton chug beers off the middle turn buckle rather than execute some Stone Cold Stunners on the Texans.

Speaking of which, expect a great effort from the Colts this weekend, but with the news of Peyton’s surgery, there will be little wind in the sails of Indy’s battle ship. It’ll take 3-4 weeks for the Colts to overcome the shock. Plus Kerry Collins is not the answer and I smell a David Garrard deal announcement coming soon.

HOUSTON TEXANS

Everyone says this is the year for the Texans. For those Canadians out there, the Texans are the Calgary Flames of the NFL. They reak of high expectations with superstar, big-name players at all core positions, but have a history of not getting it done.

They tried to find some answers with the hiring of Wade Phillips at Defensive Coordinator going from one uncertain situation in Dallas to a similar high pressure deliver now-situation in Houston. This is oddly similar to the hiring of Mike Keenan as Head Coach in Calgary a few seasons back. The outlook for Houston seems to be similar for the Texans as it was for the Flames: another underachieving non-playoff season.

Personally, there is a hatred for the Texans as my picks for Houston games last year was like Michael Bolton trying to change lanes in “Office Space”…..always too late. When I thought the Texans would shine they’d bust and when I’d think they’d tank then they’d blow out teams. I’ll take the feeler bet on the Texans over the Colts this week, but it’ll be a tough read for the rest of the season.

They got a great group of players, but over the past 2-3 years have not had the right mix at the right time.

Now rethinking about all of the under-achieving….there’s the Peyton news and now Jacksonville’s cost-cutting moves to get rid of a competent starting QB. Let’s not forget Houston’s favorable schedule with a depleted divisional sked and non division games vs. Miami, Oakland, Cincinnati and Carolina. This could parallel a stay of execution like all the artificial economic stimulus packages in the Unites States. Houston may finally make the playoffs this year, but like the Amerrrr-can economy, they will eventually collapse.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Speaking of economics, how bout cutting your starting QB a week before your first game of the season right after a strike shortened off-season to save $9 million!?!?!?!? Garrard is a competent QB, and deserves some criticism in his game, but cutting him to save a buck and relegating to a rookie QB does not bode well for the already empty fan base in J-Ville.

There are great reports on rookie QB, Blaine Gabbert, but if he will be a great field general it won’t be this year. Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman were highly touted in their rookie years as well, achieving 3 and 1 win season respectively. It’ll be a long year for J-Ville and Mo-Jones Drew.

TENNESSEE TITANS

This’ll be a year of extremes. Either the Titans with their new Head Coach and new vet QB will prosper from the new scenery and new Peyton-less AFC South sked. Or they will have no chemistry and tank like the Colts.

The last time Matt Hasselbeck had an all-world Running Back, his team happened to go to the Super Bowl. Now that’s obviously not imminent but the change of scenery was needed for Elizabeth Hasselbeck’s bro-in-law. He was done in Seattle, but the question remains whether he is a good veteran QB that’ll pave the way for up-n-comer QB Jake Locker or whether he’s a washed up QB who only flourished under Mike Holmgren’s tutelage from his Green Bay and Seattle days.

Chris Johnson is way too fast to be rusty, so bank on him to get his yards, so the only question remains about the lackluster defense of Tennessee and they’re woeful secondary.

It’ll be a banner year or a long rebuilding process. I say they surprise some people. The chemistry issue with new personnel will hinder most teams, but some will flourish, and I think Tennessee will be one of those teams.

AFC NORTH: The Black and Blue Division

First of all, this whole division gets a friggin gift in the schedule by being paired with the NFC West in the crossover games in the schedule!

ATS-wise, the AFC Norris Division is a horrible bet especially with the Pitt-Balt-Clev triumphirate. When they play each other, it’s a defensive pick ‘em game, and usually a tough under bet as over/under spreads should be in the teens. That may be good for a To-Catch-a-Predator captive, but not good for us gambling degenerates.

Let’s break it down:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Bottom line, they are the best run franchise in sports. Apologies to the Pats, Vancouver Canucks and of course the LA Dodgers, there is no better owners then the Rooney’s and no one runs a tighter ship then Head Coach, Mike Tomlin. Any comparisons to the Cincinnati Jail-gals from the Hines Ward DUI to James Harrison’s Commissioner Goodell threats have been taken care of a long long time ago by Coach Tomlin and Mr. Rooney.

Pittsburgh is a Top 5 team. That is no secret to anybody. But what could be a winner is that the suddenly powerful offense could steal us some wins on the initially low over-under bets. Cue in the To-Catch-a-Predator teen over/under spreads for divisional games, and they could be some easy over wins.

Speaking of To-Catch-a-Predator, credit must be given to Big Ben Roethlisberger for playing as well as he did after his suspension to start last season. Add in a full off-season where he married a non-co-ed and will be coming into the season just as sharp, if not more. Regardless of one’s opinion of Big Ben, he is one of the elite QB’s in the league with the likes of Brady, Rodgers, Brees and a healthy Peyton.

BALTIMORE RAVENS
Chemistry is the biggest question with the Ravens offense, followed by their aging defense. The Ravens lost Derrick Mason and Todd Heap, in the receiving corps but picked up a great receiver in Lee Evans from B-Lo. Will this be a great fit with Evans and Joe Flacco? Plus, the addition of FB Vonta Leach from Houston and RB Ricky Williams from The Fish may or may not be a great fit for tailback, Ray Rice. All this depends on chemistry. Will Flacco gel with Evans and will Vonta be OK with as limited amount of touches with Baltimore as he got in Houston?

And defense? Ray Lewis finds a way. That guy is more determined than a Maria Sharapova grunt. And Ed Reed will add to his Hall of Fame safety resume. But age creeps up to all the greats, so when will it happen? This year or next?

The Ravens are a great team with lotsa questions. Questions that will quickly be answered in Week 1 at home v. Pittsburgh. This game means more to Baltimore than it does for Pittsburgh. So a Pittsburgh cover with a definite over or a typical Black-n-Blue division match-up with Baltimore squeaking out a 13-10 game is a possibility.

This reaks of a stay-away game. Enjoy in on the Sunday Ticket, but I’ll be leaving this one alone.

CLEVELAND BROWNS
Talk about the NFL’s version of the loveable losers! The Browns made some strides last year with the breakout year by Peyton Hillis, and an underrated defense. There will be more strides made from the ousting last years Head Coach, Eric Non-genius for up and coming coach, Pat Shurmur.

2nd year QB, Colt McCoy is made for Cleveland as an under-sized, under-rated QB who will find ways to compete and win. If he eeks out some early wins, he’ll be a Dawg Pound favorite that hasn’t been seen since Bernie Kosar.

Cleveland is 2-3 years from being a legit team, but this years schedule vs. similarly questionable teams could inflate their win totals with home games vs. Cincy, Miami, Tennessee and Seattle to start the season. Their road game sked starts with trips to a possibly Peyton-less Colts, pathetic Raiders, San Fran and Texan team. They could be 4-4 at worst to start the season, but these spreads will be extremely tough to handicap.

Staying away from the Browns as well.

CINCINNATI BENGALS
Hmmm, new first year new QB? New first year receiver corps? New first year Offensive Coordinator? Jailbird Running Back who’s productivity is set to burst?

These are ingredients that are less than that of an expansion team! Welcome your UFL Cincinnati Bengals! The Bengals will be a gift game vs. the equally poor NFC East. Cue the Toilet Bowl Game of the Young Century on October 30th with Cincy at Seattle.

Prepare to win some cash in the early weeks as it'll take some time for the spreads to get to the +14 to +16 range they should be for the Bend-yet-break-gals

AFC East Preview

Alright, lets get down to bizness here. The lockout has been over for quite sometime and this “short” pre-season seems to have been dragging on for way too long!

D$ has broken down some win totals quite nicely and J-Dawg and I have been on the phone licking our chops at a Week 1 schedule that will be a money-maker SHAKER!!! As with most opening weeks, the oddsmakers don’t have a huge take on the teams just yet and hence spreads should be quite conservative with the highest spread being -7 pts. or even -9 pts. So, there should not be any double digit spreads where there will definitely be some double digit blow ups. I’m looking in your direction Shit-attle @ San Fran, Minnie-me-sota @ San Dee-ahhgo and the New York Football Giants @ the Wash-going-after-Andrew-Luck-ton Redskins!

But before we look deeper into the Week One sked, lets take a quick glance at all the teams. Perhaps there will be a self serving gripe or two towards some teams. Will you agree or disagree?

Lets get right into it alphabetically and geographically:

(enter the Monday Night Football symphony…..bahhhh dah ba da daaaahhhh)

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The class of the Division and supposedly the conference. I’m going anti-Dennis Green and won’t be so quick to crown The Hoodie’s and Tom Brady’s assess. Yes, they should get their 13-14 wins this season. As much as I respect the Hoodie’s program, everybody from Football blogging honks to the media are so quick to crown ‘dare asses-ezz!

The Pats offense will fly again year with a two Tight End set that will still give d-coordinators more anginas and heart palpitations then they’re already used to with their overworked, workaholic coaching lifestyles. I think the Hoodie has more wrinkles with this set that will surprise even Rex Ryan into preferring manicures. Now add the deep threats of Chad Ochocinco and Wes Welker and an under-rated running game! There is a potential for Madden stats ala 2006 again. Just not a 16-0 run though.

No 16-0 run?...well, the defense has to get better in clutch situations, such as on 3rd down, but we’ll have no take on this until games really matter deep into November-December anyways, so lets just be patient on Haynseworth and the D. The offense alone should win us some easy money within the first half the season?

Here’s the thing with not crowning The Pats so quickly…..everybody is so quick to either crown them or de-throne them that few will see the Pats for what the actually are, somewhere in the middle.

There is just a mini-gripe where last season everyone wanted to see the Pats rise to top so badly after a relatively tumultuous 10-6 record in 2009 and a 2008 Brady-less season, that few saw the Pats liability on defense that led to their “early” exit to the Jets in the playoffs.

This should occur this year when Brady gets 350 yds passing in Week 1 and he’ll be the second coming of Steamin’ Willie Beamon! Listen, the Pats are a Top 3 team and definite Super Bowl contender, but the NY Jets are a formidable division foe as well; Again, lemme be clear here, the Pats should get 13-14 wins, but just be careful betting for the Pats this year.

The huge love-in could overvalue the Pats with the spread pushed 2-3 points more than it should be. This may be a money-maker betting against the spread as the Pats may not cover in their straight-up wins with over-valued double digit spreads. Week 1 however? Bet the Pats hard on the road vs. a still unsure Fish team that played better away from Sun Life Stadium last season.

NEW YORK JETS
Killer defense and over-rated QB. Over-rated is too harsh, but credit should be given to the Fraud-chise I guess. He wins, but wins ugly. This year though, he has lost a lot of weapons on offense and it’s tough to say that Sanchez can carry a team like a healthy Peyton or Brady. Sanchise is more comparable to Ben Roethlisberger, but again, he doesn’t have the weapons Roth-less-assault-charges-this-summer-er has.

The schedule favors the Jets this year for 11-12 wins, but be prepared for an over-valued spread in the playoffs to win big money against the spread and especially on the moneyline. The Jets will fall….eventually.

MIAMI DOLPHINS
A lot of Joe Flacco-type flack goes out to QB Chad Henne, masking a killer Fish Defense. He may look a bit better than he is with the addition of Reggie Bush. I haven’t taken the kool-aid on the former Mr. Kardashian, but he does offer a formidable threat as a running back, and especially as a receiving back that is tailored towards the Fish’s offensive set. For the Fantasy Football honks out there, Reggie could be a mid-round steal.

With a defense as good as Miami’s, they will surprise some teams and possibly make the AFC East the deepest division with in the NFL with three 10-win teams. Definitely take the Fish at over 8 wins though. Sorry D$.

The Fish’s non-division games have a lot of winnable games. Add in an upset or two in the home-n-home games v. New England and the Jets games and on the road at the NY Football Giants and Philly. Remember, last year the Fish were a tough road team. This looks like a stay away bet now with the opposite team takes from D$ and Adolph. We’ll talk more in the conference room of course.

BUFFALO BILLS
Hmmmmm, no O’Line? No deep threats? No running game? No defense? Too bad for a gamer QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick. They offer great effort game in and game out, but just do not have the horses. There should be some money won here before the double digit spreads creep up. But they could make some moneyline cheddar at an equally horrible Chiefs squad in Week 1.