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| Mac Attack |
No doubt you will hear all the experts putting their spin on this year's tourney, but this has been all about riding the cinderella teams and fade the favourites. Not a single #1 or #2 seed advanced to the Final 4 for the first time since the tourney format was changed to 64 teams in 1979. This has caused the wiseguys to struggle mightily when trying to get ahead of public perception which usually is a key to their success. But the tournament 'is a different animal' as mentioned by Pregame.com on numerous occasions and has to be bet that way.
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| VCU WHO?? |
Before breaking down the game from a gambling prospective, we saw one stat that made our jaw drop a bit. If you had simply put $10 down on VCU money line at the start of tourney and let the profits ride through each round, you would have made nearly $14,000.00!!!! This is an underdog that has paid some big $ to whoever has been riding this hot streak OK, here we go....
#8 Butler (-2.5) vs #11 VCU. Total Set to 133.
(TIP @ 6:09pm EST)
As J-Dawg tweeted, Kansas had a pathetic performance on Sunday. KU didn't guard anyone and was a wretched 2 for 21 when shooting 3 point FGs (9.8%). UNBELIEVABLE! They shot 15 for 28 from the FT line (53%) and still managed to somehow stay in the game until the last two minutes. VCU in contrast shot a solid 12 for 25 (48%) from beyond the arc and 17 for 22 (77%) from the FT line. KU had a really off night for whatever reason and VCU couldn't miss. The VCU defense is good, but not that good and got a bit lucky here to catch KU off its game.
VCU also got lucky against Florida who decided to go for the glory shot when having last possession to win the game in the dying seconds twice. Instead of getting an easier shot from in close, Erving Walker tries to jack a late three for the glory win and missed. VCU was able to barely claw it out in OT.
Don't want to discount VCU beating USC, Georgetown, and Purdue early on, but all of these programs had some internal turmoil heading into the tourney and weren't playing their best basketball against VCU and they - to their credit - took advantage. Well done by them.
As for Butler, they haven't lost in nearly two months. Forcing teams to play at their pace and their style. Grinding games out and winning them late. This team has the experience from going to the Final Four last year and has been playing well throughout the tourney. D$ also thinks there is a coaching advantage leaning towards Butler, as Brad Stevens is one of the best coaches in American. (Not just the best up and coming coach - but right now folks!!)
Coach Stevens should be able to draw up a good game plan to neutralize the outside game VCU was able to exploit against Kansas and the two teams play similar styles which leads to me to believe Butler has the advantage here. Add last year's FInal 4 experience and VCU's inexperience and you can easily tell who I like in this game.
The Vegas Odds makers have been producing super sharp lines and 2.5 is a fair line. Of the two semi-final games this one scares me the most as Butler could easily win this game by 1 or 2 points and not cover, but I like them to win by more than 3 and will be my play in the early game.
Butler 65, VCU 60.
#4 Kentucky (-2.0) vs Connecticut. Total set at 140.
(TIP : 9:49pm EST)
The second game of the night features two young teams who are both playing really well right now.
Kemba Walker has lead the UConn Huskies to an impressive 5 game winning streak in the Big East Tourney and followed that up with Four Impressive Tourney wins. Freshmen Jeremy Lamb has led the supporting cast for the Huskies and they have jelled well over the past three weeks. We don't think that fatigue will be factor to consider as this team will have nearly a week to rest and they are extremely well coached with Jim "gun-slinger" Calhoune running the show. They will be ready and not afraid of Kentucky.
As for Kentucky, beating Ohio State and UNC in back to back games showed the nation that this team is for real. Never been a big Calapari fan, but this team is young and talented and peaking when it counts.
Both of these teams have come a long way since December and the young players have developed into good players. Kentucky may even have a slight chip on their shoulder as they lost on Nov. 24th when these two teams played - a factor that should not be overlooked.
What has been under-rated about Kentucky is that they are playing great defense the past two months and according to kenpom.com have a very efficient offense to go along with it.
If Brandon Knight and Deron Lamb can neutralize Kemba and Jeremy for UConn, I think the rest of Ketucky has a slight advantage over UConn and I see them advancing to play for the championship - against Butler. Give me Kentucky 69, UConn 63.
Stay tuned for Futures and props bets we like as the week progresses.
Until then. D$ OUT
VCU also got lucky against Florida who decided to go for the glory shot when having last possession to win the game in the dying seconds twice. Instead of getting an easier shot from in close, Erving Walker tries to jack a late three for the glory win and missed. VCU was able to barely claw it out in OT.
Don't want to discount VCU beating USC, Georgetown, and Purdue early on, but all of these programs had some internal turmoil heading into the tourney and weren't playing their best basketball against VCU and they - to their credit - took advantage. Well done by them.
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| Brad Stevens |
Coach Stevens should be able to draw up a good game plan to neutralize the outside game VCU was able to exploit against Kansas and the two teams play similar styles which leads to me to believe Butler has the advantage here. Add last year's FInal 4 experience and VCU's inexperience and you can easily tell who I like in this game.
The Vegas Odds makers have been producing super sharp lines and 2.5 is a fair line. Of the two semi-final games this one scares me the most as Butler could easily win this game by 1 or 2 points and not cover, but I like them to win by more than 3 and will be my play in the early game.
Butler 65, VCU 60.
#4 Kentucky (-2.0) vs Connecticut. Total set at 140.
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| Kemba Walker |
The second game of the night features two young teams who are both playing really well right now.
Kemba Walker has lead the UConn Huskies to an impressive 5 game winning streak in the Big East Tourney and followed that up with Four Impressive Tourney wins. Freshmen Jeremy Lamb has led the supporting cast for the Huskies and they have jelled well over the past three weeks. We don't think that fatigue will be factor to consider as this team will have nearly a week to rest and they are extremely well coached with Jim "gun-slinger" Calhoune running the show. They will be ready and not afraid of Kentucky.
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| Brandon Knight |
Both of these teams have come a long way since December and the young players have developed into good players. Kentucky may even have a slight chip on their shoulder as they lost on Nov. 24th when these two teams played - a factor that should not be overlooked.
What has been under-rated about Kentucky is that they are playing great defense the past two months and according to kenpom.com have a very efficient offense to go along with it.
If Brandon Knight and Deron Lamb can neutralize Kemba and Jeremy for UConn, I think the rest of Ketucky has a slight advantage over UConn and I see them advancing to play for the championship - against Butler. Give me Kentucky 69, UConn 63.
Stay tuned for Futures and props bets we like as the week progresses.
Until then. D$ OUT
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