Madness is truly here folks- stand up and embrace it!!!
After a .500 weekend, we are looking to build are our bank heading into the tourney with lots of strong plays to be made.
Today we liked Marquette -7.5, Butler -4, & Dayton -2 which all won and covered. However, it wasn't a hugely profitable day because of some unlucky halftime wagering. Which brings us to quick take on 2nd half wagers:
Betting on Halftime Lines
When making 2nd half wagers, you are looking for value when comparing the halftime line to the original line brought out by oddsmakers for the game. For example, tonight George Washington was a 7.5 point favourite against St. Josephs. At half the St. Joe's was up 11. Thus, at halftime the line is already 18.5 points away from what oddsmakers originally set the game. Normally oddsmakers are not this far off on games so immediately this should catch your attention.
The half time line came out GW (-7.0) and immediately there is tremendous value to take that bet. What you say??? GW was getting whooped at half yet we liked them -7? Shouldn't we automatically like the dog who is pulling the upset?
More often then not, there will be a regression towards the mean, or towards to the true line set out by oddsmakers, especially if the favourite is down and half. They will be motived after the coach yells at them to play better. The value comes into play as a halftime line of -7 means that you only need GW +3 or better for the game to win your bet. At the start of the game it was GW -7 so there is 10 points of value.
When you combine this value, and verify some boxscore stats. (i.e. GW was shooting poorly in first half - below their season average - and St. Joes couldn't miss), you have a halftime situation worth betting. These kind of situations don't occur for each game so you have to watch carefully to pick your spots.
This thought process came true as GW rallied from 11 down to tie the game up with 30 seconds remaining and nearly won it in regulation on a brick shot with 1 seconds remaining. Unfortunately in OT they didn't play well and failed to cover, but the theory held true and was simply a bad beat with good logic.
WEDNESDAY PLAYS
Reading the forums and websites there are couple key plays we like for Wednesday games:
Colorado (-4.5) over Iowa St.
Some value here as Colorado lost in a bad spot about 10 days ago to Iowa St. Colorado had just upset Texas, then had to play Iowa State on road in a meaningless game just before returning home for Senior day. (Bad situational angle) Iowa St. is 2-9 in road games this year and expect this matchup to be more like the game in Colorado which was 30 point blowout as they are a bubble team and need to win a round or two in the Big 12 to justify to the committe (like Marquette tonight) that they do indeed belong.
Arizona St. (Pick) over Oregon
There was a great writeup on Pregame.com about this game by a trusted handicapper. Case is convincing and we are following along. http://pregame.com/forums/forums/t/152645.aspx
Other leans include...
UCONN - GTown is not playing well at moment and UConn may have build some momentum today in win over Depaul. Watch to see if UCONN may be a small dog here.
ST. Johns - The Jonnies will be at home playing at MSG and draw a tired Rutgers team who went into OT to barely beat Seton Hall.
Missouri - With Pat Knight being fired, Texas Tech is likly in turmoil and won't be focused on this meaningless matchup as they know they aren't going to win the Big 12 and can't make the big dance any other way. Missouri will be playing hard to ensure they don't fall on the wrong side of the bubble.
No comments:
Post a Comment