Gus Johnson on Bill Simmons Podcast

Gus Johnson is on today's BS Report talking about the hail mary in the Houston @ Jacksonville game yesterday.  Worth a listen.

CLICK THIS LINK TO LISTEN TO GUS ON THE BS REPORT

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #10

Talk about easy covers, the Badgers of Wisconsin took Indiana to the wood shed and beat them down 83-20,  Bucky Badger was jumping around and doing tons of push ups at Camp Randall on Saturday.

San Diego State gave TCU a lot to think about before falling to the #3 team in the nation.  Same goes for Cal who gave the #1 Oregon fits before falling.  No major changes at the top so Boise State should remain at #4 and hoping for a slip up for the top 3.

College hoops season has tipped off this weekend and Crazydavo is off to hot start to the season, expect more content from him in the coming weeks.  It's the work he does before the season and in November that sets him up for a strong March Madness in 2011!


Now time for to talk Pro Pigskin as lots of great lines this week.  We did an early preview of games this week and here are our final 5 best bets.D$ is backing all of Bill Simmons Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest picks, but changes up one game as like an NFC West Battle a little better.

Game #1 : Tennessee (-1) @ Miami.   Gotta love the Titans as Miami is playing Pennington instead of Henne.  The Titans are off the bye week, pick up some guy name Randy Moss and are solid team.

Game #2 : Minnesota (-1) @ Chicago.  Previewed earlier this week - just can't see this Bears team going 6-3 and like the Vikings to try to get to .500 against the Packers next week.

Game #3 : Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-7).  Again previewed earlier this week.  Carolina has no QB, no run game, and no way against Tampa Bay who won't take this game lightly.

Game #4 : Kansas City (-1) @ Denver.  Lots of public bets on Denver after the KC loss last week.  The public apparently has forgotten that the rested Broncos are a combined 4-14 since their 6-0 start last year.  Denver LB Williams is caught DUI on Friday night - great prep for a football game by the way.  Statement game for KC here, take them to win in Denver.

Game #5 :  St. Louis (+6) @ San Francisco.   No change from the earlier preview.  Too much respect to a 2-6 team with QB issues against a solid team that has lost only 1 game this year by more than 4 points.  Way too much line value not to take the road team here.

Other games worth considering....

Houston (+1.5) @ Jacksonville. 

Next Cowboys Coach?

Two shizzo team, but Houston is probably due this week after two losses and it always fun to bet the Gus Johnson game.   I can picture it already  5 seconds left, Jacksonville 49, Texans 45.  Shaub drops back to pass, PUTS IT UPPPPPPPPP,  JOHNSON IN THE END ZONE.........   AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH.    TOUCHDOWN ANDRE JOHNSON!   WHAT A GAME!!!!!    (the rest is inaudible screams from Gus.)

New England (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh
The WalterFootball.com pick of the month.  This Patriots will be motivated coming off a loss and always play well in Pittsburgh.  The Pitt O-line is super banged up and as long as the Patriots can bend, but not break against the Pittsburgh passing game, this should be a close one.


Games we lean towards, but not recommending any wagers unless you are feeling super degenerate.  These are in order of confidence:

Lions (+3) @ Bills.  As stated earlier this week like the Lions.  Bills should be smart and lose this game otherwise the Cowboys/Panthers could steal their first overall pick.

Bengals @ Colts (-7).  Surprised the line didn't move, but love Peyton to take down Cinnanatti this week.

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-3).   Ugly football game warning.   Said it earlier this week, revenge game for the Cards who are better at home, and Seattle stinks on the road

Cowboys @ Giants (-14).  Take the G-men.  Same O-coordinator and unmotivated players in Dallas.

Jets @ Browns (+3). Another grudge game for Coach Mangenius who will pull out all tricks against his former team. The Browns plan is to run Payton Hillis into the ground and hope their defense can keep this close.





Lots of games on board, lets go try to cash some big tickets this week.
Good Luck. D$ Out

Week 10 - Thursday Night Football

The axe mercifully fell on Wade Phillips today after the Sunday Night massacre on NBC.  The Cowboys players completely quit on this guy and this step had to happen.  Will be interesting to see who steps in to replacement him in the long run.

Wade will be fine as he gets paid millions of dollars regardless, so don't feel too sorry for him.  Instead focus your energy on bringing it strong with research on the Week #10 NFL Lines!

Some Early Best Bets for this week that are jumping out at me:

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis (-7)
The Colts don't lose two game in a row and will be hungry against a demoralized Bengals squad.  Keep betting against Carson Palmer and the Deva wide receivers any chance you can get.  Grab this line before it jumps up past a key number.  Watch for this line to move to 8.5 or 10 before the end of the week.   Bengals 21  Colts 31

Minnesota (-1) @ Chicago
Possible lock of the week.  The Bears are bad and got lucky they faced a Bills squad with no pass rush to disrupt Culter.  Even with a perfect no turnover game, they still almost lost to an 0-8 team!!!  The Vikings have a much better defense who will be motivated to take down Culter at ever opportunity possible.  I see a lot of interceptions, sacks, fumbles, and a dejected looking Culter walking off the field.   AP and the offense should be able to outscore these guys even in Chicago.  Vikings 24  Bears 7

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-8)
This is a lock of the week.  These teams played a few weeks ago and the Bucs won by 13 on the road.  The Bucs are getting better and the Panthers are missing their entire running game to injury and can't figure out which train wreck QB will be starting for them.  Doesn't matter they both stink.   This team is dead last in a lot of stats, including points scored! This smells like the Green Bay Dallas game on Sunday.   Kitties 3, Buc 38

St. Louis (+6) @ San Francisco
The only question here is whether you think you can take the Rams +6 or go balls out with them on the money line.  San Fran should not be favoured against anyone, especially against a 4-4 team who has a competent QB, a solid run game, a decent defense, and who doesn't turn the ball over.   (Rams are +3 in turnover differential and by the way the 49ers are -4 in that category.)  This is a new Rams team here folks, forget about the 2009 edition, and they could actually win the NFC West at 8-8.  The Rams have had two weeks to plan for QB Troy Smith and will scheme up their D accordingly.  If you haven't figured it out yet - I kinda like the Rams here and want to take advantage of short memories everyone got and the fact that the 49ers have been terrible for 7 of the first 8 weeks of 2010.   Take the points, RAMS 20, 49ers 17.

Seattle @ Arizona (-3)
The Cardinals will be a motivated team.  One to avenge two tough losses against the Bucs and the Vikings the past two weeks.  Second, the Cards are looking to get revenge after losing their earlier tilt against Seattle back in Week 7.  In general Arizona plays better at home than on the road.  Watch the injury report on this game to see if Hasslebeck is out again (as their backup QB is not good) and their stud OT Okung remains out too.  Arizona will be better if Beanie Wells is healthy enough to play, but regardless like them to win at home.  Seahawks 13  Cardinals 24


Now for some alternatives if Indy game goes above -7.....

Tennessee (-1) @ Miami
Just like Bill Simmons, I am done with Miami. They are an average team that simply can't beat the good teams in this league. The Titans appear to be a good team, now with an interesting dynamic of adding Randy Moss to the mix. The Titans are rested off the bye and Miami hasn't won yet at home. Titans 31 Fish 20

Detroit (+2.5) @ Buffalo
The Bills have loss three straight games by 3 points and are now 0-8 on the season.  The Lions should help them become 0-9 as they will want to make up for a poor finish.  Watch the injury report closely on this one to determine who will be the starting QB for this one.  Like the Leos, but if Shaun Hill or Stafford can't go, then might be a stay away game.   Lions 20  Bills 17

Dallas @ NY Giants (-14)
Not much to be said here.  The Cowboys are in shambles and they get to play a top team in the NFC who will be watching tons of Green Bay tape on how to dismantle the Cowboys offensive line.  Cowboys 21 Giants 44


More takes coming as the week rolls along.  Might be staying away from any big plays on Thursday night as both teams are good and Atlanta had to expel a lot energy to beat the Bucs this past week.  Leaning Atlanta if had to choose, but as you can tell there are lots of better betting options out there this week.

Week 9 Recap, Week 10 Preview

It amazes me how certain coaches use the challenge option.  Too many NFL coaches seem to think it is worth challenging a 10 yard completion at the 50 yard line a couple minutes after kickoff instead of saving it for critical moments like turnovers during the last 5 minutes of the half or game.  We saw two classic examples of it this week.


First the Raiders were able to overcome a bad call on a punt which allowed Kansas City to go ahead in the forth quarter.  (Almost allowed us a back-door cover)  Since Tom Caple was too busy challenging meaningless plays he didn't have any challenges left for this critical play which he would have won.  Same happened to Wade Phillips in the last 5 minutes of the first half of their game against Green Bay.   Com'mon man! Somebody on the coaching staff should be getting paid to advise these guys when to use those little red flags.


(Side note:  In Wade's defense his team was getting destroyed by the Packers regardless - and gotta feel for the guy as Al Michaels spent 80% of the broadcast speculating on who is gonna replace him.) 
 
Overall a pretty even week of predictions, which is fine during a tough week of action.  Looking more forward to the Week #10 match ups.

This Thursday will be the first week of Thursday night football with the Ravens heading to Atlanta to play the dirty birds.  The opening line has the Falcons as a 1 point favourite at home.  Like them on a short week as they don't have to travel and have an undefeated record at home.

Some other spreads look juicy :

Minnesota -2.5 @ Chicago.  The drama Vikings could seriously be 4-5 after this game as the Bears are terrible and will have a hard time against the Vikings D to score points.

Detroit -2.5 @ Buffalo.  The Lions are now 7-1 ATS and should have beat the Jets this past week.  The Bills have come off 3 straight crushing defeats and like the Lions to get their 3rd win of the season.

Tampa -8.5 vs Carolina.  The Bucs are legit and Carolina is the worst team in the league.  Ride the streak and keep betting against Carolina until they win a game.

St. Louis +4.5 @ San Fran.  The 49ers don't deserve to be giving points to anyone right now.  The Rams have played good football and will play hard to get control of the NFC West.

Other early leanings:
KC +1.5 over Broncos
Colts -7.0 over the Bengals
Giants -?? over the Cowboys.

Week #10 looks to be a big week.... let's go study and get ready to cash some big tickets!

D$ Out

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #9

Tough, tough, tough spreads this week.  Took a long time to come up with five best bets for Sunday action, but here we go:

Morning Games
1)  New Orleans -7 @ Carolina.  The Saints are playing better then they were a few week ago when these two teams last played.  Good value on the reining Super Bowl chamaps who are starting to wake up from their hangover.

2) Miami +5 @ Baltimore.  Hard to ignore the fish perfect road record and the Ravens haven't impressed as of late.

3) New England -5 @ Cleveland.  Coach Hoodie won't be afraid to run up the score here and they are clearly the better squad.  Provided the players don't look ahead of course.

4) Detroit +6 vs New York Jets.  The line move convinced me there is now value on the Lions to cover this game.  Remember the Lions are 6-1 ATS and +6 leaves a backdoor cover possible.  (p.s. Gus Johnson is calling this game!!  Good sign.)

Later Games
5) Kansas City (Pick) @ Oakland.  Oakland has confidence winning against some bottom feeders the past two weeks, but Kansas City is legitimate and will give the Raiders all they can handle.  Take the Chiefs here.

Other Leanings:
NY Giants (-7) @ Seattle
Indianapolis (+3) @ Philladelphia
Pittsburgh (-5) @ Cinncinati 

NOTE: Some serious line moves happening this morning. ATL opened as 7.5 point favourite and has moved to 10. The Jets were 4 point favourites at the start of the week and are now 6.


Good Luck this week.  D$

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #9

#3 TCU clearly made a statement on Saturday with a beat down of #5 Utah.  The top 4 in the BCS standings will remain unchanged and Boise State is probably going to need a loss from the top three if it hopes to make it to the BCS title game in early January.

And a big congrats to Joe-Pa, who won his 400th Career game.  Down 21 at the half, the Nittany Lions scored 35 straight for the comeback win.  Seeing old man Joe Paterno lifted onto the shoulders of his players at the end of game was a good moment in sports - another for the legendary coach.

NFL Week #9 has some tough spreads and some deeper examination is needed to pick our best bets.  (Which we will post before kickoff on Sunday)

Chicago @ Buffalo (+3)  - game played in Toronto
The Bills are coming off back to back OT losses against playoff level competition and the Bears are a mess after losing three of their past four heading into their bye week.  The Bears can't keep Culter upright which is causing him to make poor decisions with the ball.  The Bills don't have much talent, but have been playing hard.  This is one of the few games the Bills have a chance to win this season so it will be interesting if they can find the energy after two tough losses.  Don't think we can put our money down on a 0-7 team, but have a slight leaning on them winning their first of the season.  Bears 13  Bills 16

New Orleans (-7) @ Carolina
The Saints have been playing better the past few weeks, but still don't have a run game with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush injured.  Carolina is probably the worst team in the league and will be missing DeAngelo Williams.  These two teams played a close game a few weeks ago in the Superdome, but we see the Saints playing better now and should be able to cover a touchdown - especially against a team that has trouble scoring points  (Dead last in the NFL).  Saints 24  Panthers 13

Arizona (-8) @ Minnesota
Can we trust a Vikings squad to cover more than a touchdown?  So much drama and injuries for this pre-maddonna team.  The Vikes lost an emotional game last week against the Pats and have two big games coming up after this 'easy' one against the Cardinals.  The Cardinals will be hungry after getting beat last week.  We can't trust either team too much, but leaning on a Cardinal cover.  Arizona 20  Minnesota 24.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-8)
The Falcons have been dominate at home over the past two years and are a tempting favourite.  Tampa Bay does have have 5 wins, but they are against : Cleveland, Carolina, Cinncinati, St. Louis & Arizona.  None of these teams are very good.  Their two losses are against Pittsburgh & New Orleans by a combined 69-19.   We see Atlanta being a solid team that should win easily, but a bit scared that -8 is a lot of points which may allow for a back-door cover.  Bucs 13, Falcons 31

San Diego (-3) @ Houston
Andre Johnson is not 100% healthy and Matt Shaub is not the same QB because of it.  The Chargers are the better squad who have had some bad luck in previous weeks.  Houston has to outscore their opponent to beat them and we can't see them doing that this week.  We would like the Chargers even more if Antonio Gates was healthy, but the Bolts should start November with two straight victories and get back into the playoff race.  Chargers 35  Houston 28

Miami (+5) @ Baltimore
The Fish are a perfect 4-0 on the road and are playing an over-rated Ravens squad who is coming off a bye week.  The fish have only lost to solid teams  (Pittsburgh, New England, & the Jets), and should give the Ravens a run on Sunday.  We like the dog here.  Dolphins 20  Batimore 23

New York Jets @ Detriot (+4.5)
The Lions are 6-1 ATS this season and we gotta keep riding them until this trend stops.  The Lions have an under-rated D-Line lead by Rookie of the Year candidate Chaos N. Suh.  Don't like teams coming off a loss then going on the road and expected to win by a touchdown.  Jets 17  Lions 20

New England (-5) @ Cleveland
The Browns have been scrappy this season, but there is some bad blood with Coach Hoodie not being a fan of Coach Mangenius.  If the Pats have the opportunity, they are going to pile it on the Browns in this matchup.  The Browns are starting Colt McCoy who hasn't been spectacular and will need to be if they want to keep up with the high scoring Pats.  Pats 35  Browns 17

NY Giants @ Seattle  (+7)
Seattle stud 1st round draft pick Russell Okung is out again this week and so is former Pro-Bowl QB Matt Hasslebeck.  The Giants were playing really well heading into their bye week and are clearly the better team here.  The Qwest home field advantage and a motivated Seahawks squad are factors to consider before laying any cheese on this one.  Giants 23  Seahawks 20

Kansas City (+1) @ Oakland
Who would have thought this might be might be the game of the week with both teams playing well this season.  The Raiders are playing with confidence and it may be tough to back the Chiefs on the road here, but star corner Nnamdi Asomugha is out and the chiefs should be able to run on the 31st ranked run defense if this game is close in the second half.  Chiefs 23 Raiders 20.

Indianapolis (+3) @ Philladelphia
The Colts should not be getting points from anyone.  We like them to win straight up.  Colts 28 Eagles 20.

Dallas @ Green Bay (-7.5)
Hard to imagine the 1-6 Cowboys keeping this game close against the Packers.  The weakness of the Packers is their run defense, but that is also the weakness of the Cowboys who are second last in the league in rushing yards.  Cowboys 21  Packers 34

Pittsburgh (-4) @ Cinncinati
The Bengals deva wide receivers will love the spotlight on Monday night football, but this team is no match for the powerhouse steelers.  Steeler 23  Bengals 9

Check back for Best Bets before kickoff.

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #8

#1 Auburn, #2 Oregon, and #3 Boise State all took care of business this week and for the first time all month we won't see any changes atop the BCS Standing. 

Two minor surprises from Saturday action had #14 Nebraska take down #6 Missouri.and #5 Michigan State getting beat down by #18 Iowa.

Now it is time for the professionals to step on the field of play for an interesting week of action.  Lots changes at the QB position.  Romo (right) is out probably for the season, in comes Jon Kitna for the cowboys.  (side note: raise your hand if you knew Kitna was still in the league.... that's what I thought, hardly anyone.)

Matthew Stafford is back for the Lions, Vince Young should start for the Titans,  Troy Smith is starting for the 49ers, and old man Favre is scheduled to try out the ankle for the Vikings.

Here are the best bets heading into kickoff:

Bills @ Chiefs (-7)
As written earlier this week, we like the Chiefs to come out and be able to run the ball in the 2nd half and take control of this game.  The line has moved from -8 to -7 in our favour as people are believing the Bills are not as bad after a close loss to the Ravens.  Guess what, the Bills are 0-6!  They are scrappy, but they have no talent and can't win here.  Riding the favourite, take the Chiefs.   (Side Note:  Gus Johnson will be calling this game.)

Redskins @ Lions (-3)
Been reading this week that the line makers have set the line like this to get the public to back the Redskins.  As mentioned in our write up earlier this week, the Lions should be the fresher and healthier team in this contest and getting Stafford back can only help.  Take the home team and ride Detriot.

Panthers @ Rams (-3)
No Deangelo Williams for this game, means one less weapon for the Kitties to throw at the Rams.  This line is surprising me as the Panthers are not a good football team and are even worse when they go on the the road.  Rams are a strong play this week.

Dolphins (+1) @ Bengals
Cincinnati is coming off a bye, but just can't trust them with Carson Palmer at QB.  He has been great at padding his stats during 'junk' time, but when the game is on the line he has thown key interceptions and turned the ball over.  The Dolphins are 3-0 on the road and we like them to become 4-0.  Riding the fish here.

Packers @ Jets (-6)
The Packers are still pretty injured at the moment and are in a tough spot with the Jets fresh off a bye and healthy.  The Packers can't run the ball and will have a tough time throwing against a great secondary for the Jets.  The Jets will be able to the run the ball and wear down the Packers and by the fourth quarter should be able to establish dominance and put away the Pack. 

Other leanings this week....

• Steelers (+1) over Saints.  The Saints just lost to the Browns, a team that the Stealers beat by 20 two weeks ago.  Until the Saints get a running game, I can't trust them to beat a good team like the Steelers.
• Patriots (-5) over Vikings.  Can't see a banged up Favre leading this team to a victory here.

Good Luck in Week #8.
D$ Out.

NBA Season Begins Tonight

Tip off to the 2010-11 NBA Season is underway - hard to believe the regular season begins tonight as it feels like the finals just ended the other day. The season starts with a marquee matchup between the Celtics and the Heat.  Later on we see two other games with the Trail Blazers vs the Suns and the Lakers taking on the Rockets. 

As reported on ESPN, Lebron James better watch out as a Cleveland radio show has hired a witch doctor to put a curse on James.  No sour grapes from the Cavs fans at all eh?http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/truehoop/miamiheat/news/story?id=5730079

 Season win total bets are closed now, but it will be interesting to see if the Heat live up to all the hype and if the Lakers can repeat with 5-2 odds.

An early look at the NFL Week #8 games worth a best bet:

Panthers @ Rams (-3)
St. Louis has been under-rated all year.  This team almost pulled off a road upset against Tampa last week - leading for most of the game and ended up covering.  They get a fabulous matchup this week with the Kitties coming to town.  The Panthers barely beat a terrible 49ers squad at home.  With Steven Jackson expected to play this week this line should have been higher and we like Sam Bradford and his boys to win big this week.   Kitties 9  Rams 24

Bills @ Chiefs (-8)
At first glance this might be an opportunity to take the points and fad the favourite here, but the Bills this past week were a flukey cover against Baltimore.  The Ravens just came off a loss and were not 'up' for playing the worst team in the NFL.  The Chiefs won against Jacksonville and should have no problem beating the Bills here with a solid run game.  I see lots of points getting scored,  Bills 24, Chiefs 34

Redskins @ Lions (-3)
The Lions have covered nearly all their games this year.  Fresh off a bye, with their starting QB Stafford back in the lineup and more rest for Javid Best and Calvin Johnson to heal minor injuries, this team is prime to give a tired Redskins squad a hard time this week.  The Skins were extremely lucky to win against a turnover prone Bears squad.  Like the Lions to get win #2 this week.  Redskins 17  Lions 34

Othere early leans....

• Although they can't win at home, the Dolphins look interesting as dogs to against an over-rated Bengals team.
• The Broncos will be hungry to get their manhood back against the 49ers who are staring their backup QB.

With the world series starting tomorrow we are in gambling heaven.   NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB, and NCAA football all happening right now.  Enjoy!

D$ Out.