SEASON OPENING EASY COVERS FOR COLLEGE HOOPS

Ohhhhhhhhh man, this is long overdue. I gotta get my computer fixed to be able to blog regularly. But stay tuned please, as the All-Adolph Pre-Season picks will be coming soon. The Pre-Season Top 10 teams will not be different from most polls, but there will a solid list of under-rated teams that will surprise many people and win you boat loads of money if you choose to partake. ahem......Florida State!

But now, lets get to the business at hand. CrazyDavo has gone off to a furious start to the college hoops betting season starting at 9-2. My apologies for not spreading the love, so no better time to start then now, so lets get to it:

KENTUCKY WILDCATS -6.5 @ PORTLAND PILOTS

Kentucky rolls into Portland's backyard in the Rose Garden tonight. This is a cushy spread to pounce on with the game being in Portland. Portland is no chump team. They finished 3rd in a tough Gonzaga-led West Coast Conference last year.

And Kentucky's record last year is meaningless towards this years prognostication, due to a complete overhaul of their line-up with the NBA-"gradumacated" John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins. So John Calipari has rolled in yet another line-up this year full of McDonald All-Americans who will more than likely be found academically ineligible after the season and Calipari will vacate more wins.

Regardless of Calipari's shady recruiting, his line-up is full of talent. They are not like last year's line-up. But they are led by all-world point guard, Brandon Knight who is lighting it up from 3 point land. They boast 3 McDonald All-Americans while Portland has last years leading 3 point shooter in Jarrod Stohl, but little depth.

Kentucky should cover easy on talent alone. Credit this game being in Portland's backyard for the cushy spread. Wildcats by 18.

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS -6 vs. MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS

North Carolina went through a hellish season last year, however picking it up late to salvage an NIT title game. As much of a moral victory the end of last season was, it was still a complete disappointment. UNC came into last season with the best recruiting class in the nation led by supposed one-and-done forward John Henson. He led a recruiting class that had little in terms of basketball IQ and little to none defensive ability.

Fast forward to this year. Coach, Roy Williams has assembled another highly rated recruiting class that seems to know how to get into a defensive stance and actually close-out. They are led by definite one-and-done forward in Harrison Barnes. He has amazed everyone this year with his play by dominating on the boards and being unstoppable on the blocks and wing.

The Tar Heels will cover the 6 points tonight on Harrison Barnes alone. With that being said, there is still talent in last year's class, and this year's sophomore class aren't burdened like last year to carry the load. John Henson, DOES have a season under his belt, so he will contribute.

The Gophers on the other hand are continuing their off-court shenanigans from last year. Head Coach, Tubby Smith assembles talented recruiting classes, but last year it seemed like all were suspended, arrested or both! They had one constant threat, and that was in all-hustle team point guard, Devoe Joseph, but alas he's been suspended for off-court issues. All that's left for the Gophers is a pretty big front court. But from watching them last year and in person this year as they played an exhibition game at UBC, the Gophers' front court players are indeed huge at 6-10 or over, but quite soft. Gopher bigman Ralph Sampson III is leading the Gophers in scoring early on this season, but he'll be no match for UNC's bigmen led by Barnes, Henson and Junior crusher, Tyler Zeller.

Another cushy spread, UNC by 16.

GEORGETOWN HOYAS -8 vs. WOFFORD TERRIERS

Georgetown is a traditional big man factory. They had quite the big man last year in Greg Monroe, who parlayed his talent to becoming a Top 10 draft pick in this past NBA draft. Monroe was a great talent, but this year's Georgetown Hoya team will be better than last year's team as it will be an addition due to Monroe's subtraction.

Monroe was a huge talent, mainly off of the drive from the wing or elbow. But within Georgetown's Princeton offence, he was needed in the blocks and on the boards. As much as Monroe had great rebounding stats, he was as soft as his garbage rebounds. The conflict of Monroe's strengths from the wing/elbow vs. the role he was needed for in the blocks held Georgetown back last year, and they down right underachieved.

Cue in last year's Hoya strengths in senior guards, Chris Wright and Austin Freeman. Chris Wright is a solid point guard that takes care of the ball. And Austin Freeman can flat out score!!!! All he does is hit 3's from every spot, off the dribble, on the break or when the puppies are set off of a Chris Wright drive. What makes Austin dangerous is when any team clues in and tries to execute a game plan on his 3 point shooting, he's able to drive baseline for a lay-up or easy dish. Freeman can downright ball like he's K-Smack running a Salem pick-up game at lunch time!!!

Wright and Freeman are 2 of the 3 remaining Top 50 recruits left from their freshmen class (Kyle Singler from Duke being the third), with every other player having left for the pros. Both will come out from the shadows and dominate a Big East Conference where most of the top teams are rebuilding from graduations and NBA defections.

Wofford's strength is in their guards and the will be quite Woe-ful vs. Wright and Freeman tonight.

G-Town by 22.

That's it folks. Some easy spreads tonight.

There's one more interesting game in Long Beach State being a 10 point dog to a slightly over valued Clemson Tigers tonight. Long Beach matches up well to Clemson. Their pre-season tourney game on a neutral court in the Virgin Islands boasts a juicy pick as Clemson have been 1-9 ATS the past 2 years on neutral courts. Plus Long Beach played Clemson last year at this time and covered. The great match up between both team's posts/forwards is leaning more towards Long Beach based on toughness alone. I'd be more inclined to put money on Long Beach State at +10, but the game should be a Clemson victory at 6-7 points. That's too close of a margin when there's all of these cushy single game spreads for games where the winning margins are by 15 points or more.

Stay tuned for more picks and for the All-Adolph Insanity Report Pre-Season extravaganza!!!

CrazyDavo out!!

GUS JOHNSON: Haaaahhhhh haaaahhhhhhh!!!!!!!

Play-by-play announcer, Gus Johnson is the reason many people viewed
in on meaningless Houston/Jacksonville game last week. For many weeks
now on Bill Simmons' column, he's been setting his predicted spreads
on NFL games based on whether Gus Johnson is calling the game or not.
He calls it the "LAW OF GUS JOHNSON"....here's Bill's take:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmonsnfl2010/week10picks&sportCat=nfl

Bill says:
"The Law of Gus Johnson is sweeping the nation: He's called four
straight weeks of games that were genuinely exciting (Jets-Lions,
Bills-Chiefs, Bengals-Falcons, Chiefs-Texans) and this battle between
two David Lee teams (all offense, no defense) looks like No. 5.

I keep mentioning the Law of Gus without ever really defining it, so
let's do it right now. If Gus Johnson is calling an NFL game, the odds
quintuple that (A) the lead will change hands in the fourth quarter;
(B) someone will complete a long pass in a big moment that will make
Gus' voice hit an octave only dogs can hear; and (C) the game will go
into overtime or at least come damned close. It seems impossible that
the mere presence of an announcer would alter the course of the game,
but here's my theory: I think God sits in his Man Cave on Sundays and
says, "Which game is that Gus Johnson calling? I get a kick out of
that guy. I think I'll make his game exciting and see if he completely
loses his mind." "

Well said Sports Guy (that's Bill Simmons)!! It's almost cosmic when
many people flip towards the end of the game to check it out, and it
happens to be a Gus game, and it happens to be a last second miracle.
More than likely that may very well be the inner sport fan taking over
the sub-conscious telling the hand to flip to the Gus game, just in
case there's an incredible moment.

But, for most of us, particularly J-Dawg, the VegasWhale himself, D$
and Paulsen, we text each other back and forth every sunday telling
each other, "Gus is calling the so-n-so game!!!" Hearing Gus call a
game, even without the last second miracles, is entertaining enough.
He's the perfect announcer, in that his calling the game doesn't
overshadow the actual game, but compliments the actual game action on
the field. He's this generations Vin Skully. Legendary Brooklyn/LA
Dodger announcer Vin Skully is the last great solo play-by-play
announcers out there. There are 3-4 times a summer where a Dodgers
game will be on, and I'll leave it on just to hear Vin's call. Gus is
like that. I'll watch any game to hear Gus' call. Like I said, Gus is
this generations Vin Skully, but on speed and on the verge of a heart
attack!!!!! He's the best!!!

It seems that Gus has a knack to call the games that end in miracles.
Hence, Bill Simmons' LAW OF GUS JOHNSON!! But there are many other
last second buzzer beaters out there that have been memorable, but the
miracles called by Gus are memorable in their sports miracles alone,
but enhanced by Gus' call !!!!

Gus has so many great monikers. His laugh/cackle, "Haaaahhhhh,
haaaaahhhhhhh!!!!" always stands out. Also there is the "WHAAAATT
AAAAHH GAME" he yelps out every now and then. The best times are when
he's yelling and speechless at the same time. Check these clips out:

1. UCLA v. GONZAGA 2006

This is the one that gives me chills every single time! The Zags had a
17 point lead, that UCLA chipped away at.

This is a long clip. It's been mentioned in previous blogs, but it
gives me chills every time. The clip starts off with Gonzaga holding a
71-68 lead coming out of a timeout with 40.8 seconds left.

At the 45 second mark of the YouTube clip, there's the first glimpse
of Gus' karma seeping through the cracks, foreshadowing what will
ensue. UCLA rebounds an Adam Morrison miss, and Gus announces,
"....aand a foul!!!!"

Whoa man, getting chills already, now....at the 1:40 mark of the clip,
Gonzaga inbounds off a UCLA made free throw, and the mayhem insues.
Check it out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vt0VUSyVIr4&feature=related

UCLA steals the ball, and puts it back to steal the lead by one. Gus
is already going nuts!!! But it gets better, Gonzaga inbounds the ball
from the UCLA hoop and the Zaga point guard dribbles, and Gus calls:

"RALVIO...LAAAST CHANCE TO DANCE!!!!!!"

So UCLA steals the ball back, and Gus yells...(oh man, getting chills)

"WHAT A GAME.....WHAAAAAAT AAAAHHHHH GAME!!!!!" followed by his classic call,

" AFTER BEING DOWN 17, HEART.....BREAK CITY!!!!!!"

And then the moment is topped off with Color Commentator, Len Elmore
saying, "Holy Mackeral"....whew, gets me everytime!!!!!!! But wait it
gets better. There's more, right at the 4:18 mark of the clip, Gonzaga
goes for a buzzer beater, and Gus' blood pressure is that of a shaken
coke can ready to blow. Gus calls,

"BATISTA....WITH THE CAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA-TCH!!!!"

Now there are some top "What if's?" in our lives that we may rewind in
our heads from time to time. These "What if's?" are not like the
pathetic guy still living the dream from back in the day. They're not
like Uncle Rico from Napolean Dynamite throwing the football to the
video camera. These are non-loser, great "What if's?", and a Top 3
"What If?" is:

What if Batista's turnaround jumper went in?

What if? Well, Gus would have gone into a psycotic-induced coma for 3
months and J-Dawg, D$ and Adolph would be hittin J-Dawg's living room
floor with instant heart attacks!!! We watched the game live, and our
yells were louder than the TV, and thank god J-Dawg recorded the game,
because we watched Gus' call for hours and reminisced about that
effing moment!!!! Whoa man!!!

2. KANSAS STATE v. XAVIER 2010

This game is a classic back and forth 3 point shooting display. On
it's own merit, it can be argued that it's the best March Madness game
this decade. Argued! But with Gus' call it becomes the BEST MARCH
MADNESS THIS DECADE!

Check out the whole clip. Back and forth 3's....K-State's hittin and
answering, and Xavier's hittin and answering. The highlight of the
highlights is at the 1:20 mark of the clip, and Xavier ties the game
to bring it to the 2nd overtime, Gus is calling out that Xavier's
"Crawford has to hurry!!!!!".....so Crawford shoots the long 3, and
Gus' call of:

"AAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHAAHHHHHHH!?!?!?"

That call of "aaahhhhhhhh" is so great. Gus is both scared and pumped.
So good!!!!! Then Crawford hits the 3 to tie it and Gus, take it away:

"AAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH, HE TIED IT!!!!!"

Then in the 2nd overtime, Gus has a classic call, where it's both
funny and weird. K-State's Jacob Pullen hit's a 3, and Gus yells out:

"Pullen.....STRAIGHT AWWWAAAY......BAAAAHHH!!!......... HE'S IN SHAPE!!!"

He's in shape!?!?!? Jim Nantz wouldn't say that. If he did, it'd be
weird. When Gus says it, it's awesome. This begs the question: Why
isn't Gus calling the National Title games for March Madness!?!?!?!
Plus, his announcing crew is the 6th crew for CBS NFL broadcasts.
6th!?!?!?!? Brutal.

Here's the clip. By the way, in a recent interview on Bill Simmon's
podcast, Gus calls that K-State/Xavier game his "nirvana". Enjoy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVEIeD91vIc


3. BRANDON STOKLEY'S CATCH vs. CINCINNATI

Gus calls this moment, the reason why he was named as the voice of
MADDEN '11. We respectfully disagree Gus. You were named the voice of
Madden '11 cuz your the best in the biz!!!!

So, this is Tip Drill #1 with last week's Jacksonville Hail Mary
catch, being Tip Drill #2.

The best part of Stokley's catch and Gus' call is when Stokley is
running along the goal line to eat some clock and Gus has a
semi-awkward pause. Stokley's obviously going to score and Gus is
calling:

"WOOOOOOWWWWW....(awkward half second pause)......TOUCHDOWN,
DENVER....UNBELIEVABLE!!!!!!!"

Check it out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wj5HtJidMZ8

So good.

4. LAST WEEK'S JACKSONVILLE HAIL MARY CATCH

The reason for this blog. People are still talking about this call.

It's amazing how quickly the play transpires and how quickly Gus goes
from calling another failed Hail Mary to pure mayhem!!!! Jacksonville
QB, David Garrard throws the ball, and the Houston DB knocks it down,
which Gus plainly and almost dissapointingly says, "KNOOOCKED
DOWN!!!". But instantly, check that, not instantly, but rather the
call turns to mayhem faster than immediately, it's like there's
negative time from Gus calling, "Knooocked down" to Steve Tasker
yelling, "HE CAUGHT IT!!!!" and then Gus losing his shit. He follows
up with his best laugh-cackle ever, "HAAAAAHHHH HAAAAHHHH!!!!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHdPwYw3tNg

Classic Gus

Before we get to the next clip, not many people know this, but Gus
called the classic Princeton upset over UCLA in 1996. It's a young Gus
Johnson, and not really any classic lines in the clip, but it's the
beginning of Gus' karma on great games.

Here's the clip, if your interested:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCCAZvZAmZc

5. GONZAGA v. FLORIDA 1999

Florida misses their last second shot and Gonzaga wins the game. Gus
has a classic line:

"THE SLIPPER STIIIILLLL FITS!!!!!!!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdXeWvucvH8

Wait for it..........So good!!!

6. VANDERBILT v. NC STATE 2004

K this is a long clip. The great Gus moment starts about the 4:30 mark
of the clip. But Vandy is down by 10 with 2 minutes left and chips
away. Pretty big choke job by NC State.

But anyways, back to the 4:20 mark, Moore from Vandy hits a 3 to cut
NC's lead to one. Moore hits the 3 and Gus has an inhuman grunt/yell.
It's like he's yelling "ahhh" and "hits" at the same time. Then he
follows it with a classic "Holy Toledo!!!"

Right at the 6:13 mark of the clip, Gus is going to commercial and says:

"THE COMMODORES TAKE A 71-72 LEAD ON THIS FREAKY BUCKET"

Who says that?!?!?!? So good!!! You know who wouldn't day that? CBS
College Hoops lead play-by-play announcer, Jim Nantz!!!! Nantz has an
elitest, smug style of calling games. Why he calls the National Title
games is beyond me. He is a veteran broadcaster, and he has paid his
dues. And granted, he calls a clean game. But save your smugness where
it belongs Jim...calling the Masters on CBS. Leave the Madness to the
Warden of the Asylum, Gus Johnson!!!!!!!

The #1 "What if?" moment is, and always will be:

WHAT IF GORDAN HAYWARD MADE HIS LAST SECOND SHOT IN LAST YEARS
BUTLER/DUKE NATIONAL TITLE GAME?

Just imagine. Hayward hits that half-court buzzer beater. The underdog Hoosier-ville team in Butler, from Indianapolis, playing the National Title game at home, on a court just 17 miles from their campus vs. the evil-empire typical juggernaut in Duke. Imagine, Hayward hitting that buzzer beater!!!! That has to be the biggest What if!!!

Well check that:

What if Gordan Hayward made his last second shot in last years Butler/Duke National Title game? aaaaaaaand.....WHAT IF GUS JOHNSON WAS CALLING THAT GAME!!!!!

If that happened, then the world would explode, and there's be a new big bang in the universe, and time as we know it would be referred to as BGS (Before Gus' Call) and AGS (After Gus' Call).

I tell you what, with the LAW OF GUS JOHNSON in the universe as we know it.....if Gus was calling last year's National Title game between Butler and Duke, that shot would have gone in. It would have been all due to Gus Karma!!!!

CBS...straighten your lives together and make Gus your lead announcer!!!!!!

Side note: cool clip in the Vandy/NC State when they show the replay
of the backdoor and-1 bucket. Notice to the right of the screen,
Vandy's #35, Matt Freije jumping up in a crazed Mark "Mad Dog" Madsen
fashion after the hoop. That's March Madness folks!!! It's the best
reality TV you'll see. The host of these moments has to be, and due to
THE LAW OF GUS JOHNSON, will be Gus Johnson!!!

Here's the Vandy/NC State clip:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvtxqSpQ38U

Long live Gus. He's calling the Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
game this Sunday. Get your straight jackets out!!!!!!!

So good!!!!

CrazyDavo out!!!

Gus Johnson on Bill Simmons Podcast

Gus Johnson is on today's BS Report talking about the hail mary in the Houston @ Jacksonville game yesterday.  Worth a listen.

CLICK THIS LINK TO LISTEN TO GUS ON THE BS REPORT

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #10

Talk about easy covers, the Badgers of Wisconsin took Indiana to the wood shed and beat them down 83-20,  Bucky Badger was jumping around and doing tons of push ups at Camp Randall on Saturday.

San Diego State gave TCU a lot to think about before falling to the #3 team in the nation.  Same goes for Cal who gave the #1 Oregon fits before falling.  No major changes at the top so Boise State should remain at #4 and hoping for a slip up for the top 3.

College hoops season has tipped off this weekend and Crazydavo is off to hot start to the season, expect more content from him in the coming weeks.  It's the work he does before the season and in November that sets him up for a strong March Madness in 2011!


Now time for to talk Pro Pigskin as lots of great lines this week.  We did an early preview of games this week and here are our final 5 best bets.D$ is backing all of Bill Simmons Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest picks, but changes up one game as like an NFC West Battle a little better.

Game #1 : Tennessee (-1) @ Miami.   Gotta love the Titans as Miami is playing Pennington instead of Henne.  The Titans are off the bye week, pick up some guy name Randy Moss and are solid team.

Game #2 : Minnesota (-1) @ Chicago.  Previewed earlier this week - just can't see this Bears team going 6-3 and like the Vikings to try to get to .500 against the Packers next week.

Game #3 : Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-7).  Again previewed earlier this week.  Carolina has no QB, no run game, and no way against Tampa Bay who won't take this game lightly.

Game #4 : Kansas City (-1) @ Denver.  Lots of public bets on Denver after the KC loss last week.  The public apparently has forgotten that the rested Broncos are a combined 4-14 since their 6-0 start last year.  Denver LB Williams is caught DUI on Friday night - great prep for a football game by the way.  Statement game for KC here, take them to win in Denver.

Game #5 :  St. Louis (+6) @ San Francisco.   No change from the earlier preview.  Too much respect to a 2-6 team with QB issues against a solid team that has lost only 1 game this year by more than 4 points.  Way too much line value not to take the road team here.

Other games worth considering....

Houston (+1.5) @ Jacksonville. 

Next Cowboys Coach?

Two shizzo team, but Houston is probably due this week after two losses and it always fun to bet the Gus Johnson game.   I can picture it already  5 seconds left, Jacksonville 49, Texans 45.  Shaub drops back to pass, PUTS IT UPPPPPPPPP,  JOHNSON IN THE END ZONE.........   AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH.    TOUCHDOWN ANDRE JOHNSON!   WHAT A GAME!!!!!    (the rest is inaudible screams from Gus.)

New England (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh
The WalterFootball.com pick of the month.  This Patriots will be motivated coming off a loss and always play well in Pittsburgh.  The Pitt O-line is super banged up and as long as the Patriots can bend, but not break against the Pittsburgh passing game, this should be a close one.


Games we lean towards, but not recommending any wagers unless you are feeling super degenerate.  These are in order of confidence:

Lions (+3) @ Bills.  As stated earlier this week like the Lions.  Bills should be smart and lose this game otherwise the Cowboys/Panthers could steal their first overall pick.

Bengals @ Colts (-7).  Surprised the line didn't move, but love Peyton to take down Cinnanatti this week.

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-3).   Ugly football game warning.   Said it earlier this week, revenge game for the Cards who are better at home, and Seattle stinks on the road

Cowboys @ Giants (-14).  Take the G-men.  Same O-coordinator and unmotivated players in Dallas.

Jets @ Browns (+3). Another grudge game for Coach Mangenius who will pull out all tricks against his former team. The Browns plan is to run Payton Hillis into the ground and hope their defense can keep this close.





Lots of games on board, lets go try to cash some big tickets this week.
Good Luck. D$ Out

Week 10 - Thursday Night Football

The axe mercifully fell on Wade Phillips today after the Sunday Night massacre on NBC.  The Cowboys players completely quit on this guy and this step had to happen.  Will be interesting to see who steps in to replacement him in the long run.

Wade will be fine as he gets paid millions of dollars regardless, so don't feel too sorry for him.  Instead focus your energy on bringing it strong with research on the Week #10 NFL Lines!

Some Early Best Bets for this week that are jumping out at me:

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis (-7)
The Colts don't lose two game in a row and will be hungry against a demoralized Bengals squad.  Keep betting against Carson Palmer and the Deva wide receivers any chance you can get.  Grab this line before it jumps up past a key number.  Watch for this line to move to 8.5 or 10 before the end of the week.   Bengals 21  Colts 31

Minnesota (-1) @ Chicago
Possible lock of the week.  The Bears are bad and got lucky they faced a Bills squad with no pass rush to disrupt Culter.  Even with a perfect no turnover game, they still almost lost to an 0-8 team!!!  The Vikings have a much better defense who will be motivated to take down Culter at ever opportunity possible.  I see a lot of interceptions, sacks, fumbles, and a dejected looking Culter walking off the field.   AP and the offense should be able to outscore these guys even in Chicago.  Vikings 24  Bears 7

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-8)
This is a lock of the week.  These teams played a few weeks ago and the Bucs won by 13 on the road.  The Bucs are getting better and the Panthers are missing their entire running game to injury and can't figure out which train wreck QB will be starting for them.  Doesn't matter they both stink.   This team is dead last in a lot of stats, including points scored! This smells like the Green Bay Dallas game on Sunday.   Kitties 3, Buc 38

St. Louis (+6) @ San Francisco
The only question here is whether you think you can take the Rams +6 or go balls out with them on the money line.  San Fran should not be favoured against anyone, especially against a 4-4 team who has a competent QB, a solid run game, a decent defense, and who doesn't turn the ball over.   (Rams are +3 in turnover differential and by the way the 49ers are -4 in that category.)  This is a new Rams team here folks, forget about the 2009 edition, and they could actually win the NFC West at 8-8.  The Rams have had two weeks to plan for QB Troy Smith and will scheme up their D accordingly.  If you haven't figured it out yet - I kinda like the Rams here and want to take advantage of short memories everyone got and the fact that the 49ers have been terrible for 7 of the first 8 weeks of 2010.   Take the points, RAMS 20, 49ers 17.

Seattle @ Arizona (-3)
The Cardinals will be a motivated team.  One to avenge two tough losses against the Bucs and the Vikings the past two weeks.  Second, the Cards are looking to get revenge after losing their earlier tilt against Seattle back in Week 7.  In general Arizona plays better at home than on the road.  Watch the injury report on this game to see if Hasslebeck is out again (as their backup QB is not good) and their stud OT Okung remains out too.  Arizona will be better if Beanie Wells is healthy enough to play, but regardless like them to win at home.  Seahawks 13  Cardinals 24


Now for some alternatives if Indy game goes above -7.....

Tennessee (-1) @ Miami
Just like Bill Simmons, I am done with Miami. They are an average team that simply can't beat the good teams in this league. The Titans appear to be a good team, now with an interesting dynamic of adding Randy Moss to the mix. The Titans are rested off the bye and Miami hasn't won yet at home. Titans 31 Fish 20

Detroit (+2.5) @ Buffalo
The Bills have loss three straight games by 3 points and are now 0-8 on the season.  The Lions should help them become 0-9 as they will want to make up for a poor finish.  Watch the injury report closely on this one to determine who will be the starting QB for this one.  Like the Leos, but if Shaun Hill or Stafford can't go, then might be a stay away game.   Lions 20  Bills 17

Dallas @ NY Giants (-14)
Not much to be said here.  The Cowboys are in shambles and they get to play a top team in the NFC who will be watching tons of Green Bay tape on how to dismantle the Cowboys offensive line.  Cowboys 21 Giants 44


More takes coming as the week rolls along.  Might be staying away from any big plays on Thursday night as both teams are good and Atlanta had to expel a lot energy to beat the Bucs this past week.  Leaning Atlanta if had to choose, but as you can tell there are lots of better betting options out there this week.

Week 9 Recap, Week 10 Preview

It amazes me how certain coaches use the challenge option.  Too many NFL coaches seem to think it is worth challenging a 10 yard completion at the 50 yard line a couple minutes after kickoff instead of saving it for critical moments like turnovers during the last 5 minutes of the half or game.  We saw two classic examples of it this week.


First the Raiders were able to overcome a bad call on a punt which allowed Kansas City to go ahead in the forth quarter.  (Almost allowed us a back-door cover)  Since Tom Caple was too busy challenging meaningless plays he didn't have any challenges left for this critical play which he would have won.  Same happened to Wade Phillips in the last 5 minutes of the first half of their game against Green Bay.   Com'mon man! Somebody on the coaching staff should be getting paid to advise these guys when to use those little red flags.


(Side note:  In Wade's defense his team was getting destroyed by the Packers regardless - and gotta feel for the guy as Al Michaels spent 80% of the broadcast speculating on who is gonna replace him.) 
 
Overall a pretty even week of predictions, which is fine during a tough week of action.  Looking more forward to the Week #10 match ups.

This Thursday will be the first week of Thursday night football with the Ravens heading to Atlanta to play the dirty birds.  The opening line has the Falcons as a 1 point favourite at home.  Like them on a short week as they don't have to travel and have an undefeated record at home.

Some other spreads look juicy :

Minnesota -2.5 @ Chicago.  The drama Vikings could seriously be 4-5 after this game as the Bears are terrible and will have a hard time against the Vikings D to score points.

Detroit -2.5 @ Buffalo.  The Lions are now 7-1 ATS and should have beat the Jets this past week.  The Bills have come off 3 straight crushing defeats and like the Lions to get their 3rd win of the season.

Tampa -8.5 vs Carolina.  The Bucs are legit and Carolina is the worst team in the league.  Ride the streak and keep betting against Carolina until they win a game.

St. Louis +4.5 @ San Fran.  The 49ers don't deserve to be giving points to anyone right now.  The Rams have played good football and will play hard to get control of the NFC West.

Other early leanings:
KC +1.5 over Broncos
Colts -7.0 over the Bengals
Giants -?? over the Cowboys.

Week #10 looks to be a big week.... let's go study and get ready to cash some big tickets!

D$ Out

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #9

Tough, tough, tough spreads this week.  Took a long time to come up with five best bets for Sunday action, but here we go:

Morning Games
1)  New Orleans -7 @ Carolina.  The Saints are playing better then they were a few week ago when these two teams last played.  Good value on the reining Super Bowl chamaps who are starting to wake up from their hangover.

2) Miami +5 @ Baltimore.  Hard to ignore the fish perfect road record and the Ravens haven't impressed as of late.

3) New England -5 @ Cleveland.  Coach Hoodie won't be afraid to run up the score here and they are clearly the better squad.  Provided the players don't look ahead of course.

4) Detroit +6 vs New York Jets.  The line move convinced me there is now value on the Lions to cover this game.  Remember the Lions are 6-1 ATS and +6 leaves a backdoor cover possible.  (p.s. Gus Johnson is calling this game!!  Good sign.)

Later Games
5) Kansas City (Pick) @ Oakland.  Oakland has confidence winning against some bottom feeders the past two weeks, but Kansas City is legitimate and will give the Raiders all they can handle.  Take the Chiefs here.

Other Leanings:
NY Giants (-7) @ Seattle
Indianapolis (+3) @ Philladelphia
Pittsburgh (-5) @ Cinncinati 

NOTE: Some serious line moves happening this morning. ATL opened as 7.5 point favourite and has moved to 10. The Jets were 4 point favourites at the start of the week and are now 6.


Good Luck this week.  D$

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #9

#3 TCU clearly made a statement on Saturday with a beat down of #5 Utah.  The top 4 in the BCS standings will remain unchanged and Boise State is probably going to need a loss from the top three if it hopes to make it to the BCS title game in early January.

And a big congrats to Joe-Pa, who won his 400th Career game.  Down 21 at the half, the Nittany Lions scored 35 straight for the comeback win.  Seeing old man Joe Paterno lifted onto the shoulders of his players at the end of game was a good moment in sports - another for the legendary coach.

NFL Week #9 has some tough spreads and some deeper examination is needed to pick our best bets.  (Which we will post before kickoff on Sunday)

Chicago @ Buffalo (+3)  - game played in Toronto
The Bills are coming off back to back OT losses against playoff level competition and the Bears are a mess after losing three of their past four heading into their bye week.  The Bears can't keep Culter upright which is causing him to make poor decisions with the ball.  The Bills don't have much talent, but have been playing hard.  This is one of the few games the Bills have a chance to win this season so it will be interesting if they can find the energy after two tough losses.  Don't think we can put our money down on a 0-7 team, but have a slight leaning on them winning their first of the season.  Bears 13  Bills 16

New Orleans (-7) @ Carolina
The Saints have been playing better the past few weeks, but still don't have a run game with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush injured.  Carolina is probably the worst team in the league and will be missing DeAngelo Williams.  These two teams played a close game a few weeks ago in the Superdome, but we see the Saints playing better now and should be able to cover a touchdown - especially against a team that has trouble scoring points  (Dead last in the NFL).  Saints 24  Panthers 13

Arizona (-8) @ Minnesota
Can we trust a Vikings squad to cover more than a touchdown?  So much drama and injuries for this pre-maddonna team.  The Vikes lost an emotional game last week against the Pats and have two big games coming up after this 'easy' one against the Cardinals.  The Cardinals will be hungry after getting beat last week.  We can't trust either team too much, but leaning on a Cardinal cover.  Arizona 20  Minnesota 24.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-8)
The Falcons have been dominate at home over the past two years and are a tempting favourite.  Tampa Bay does have have 5 wins, but they are against : Cleveland, Carolina, Cinncinati, St. Louis & Arizona.  None of these teams are very good.  Their two losses are against Pittsburgh & New Orleans by a combined 69-19.   We see Atlanta being a solid team that should win easily, but a bit scared that -8 is a lot of points which may allow for a back-door cover.  Bucs 13, Falcons 31

San Diego (-3) @ Houston
Andre Johnson is not 100% healthy and Matt Shaub is not the same QB because of it.  The Chargers are the better squad who have had some bad luck in previous weeks.  Houston has to outscore their opponent to beat them and we can't see them doing that this week.  We would like the Chargers even more if Antonio Gates was healthy, but the Bolts should start November with two straight victories and get back into the playoff race.  Chargers 35  Houston 28

Miami (+5) @ Baltimore
The Fish are a perfect 4-0 on the road and are playing an over-rated Ravens squad who is coming off a bye week.  The fish have only lost to solid teams  (Pittsburgh, New England, & the Jets), and should give the Ravens a run on Sunday.  We like the dog here.  Dolphins 20  Batimore 23

New York Jets @ Detriot (+4.5)
The Lions are 6-1 ATS this season and we gotta keep riding them until this trend stops.  The Lions have an under-rated D-Line lead by Rookie of the Year candidate Chaos N. Suh.  Don't like teams coming off a loss then going on the road and expected to win by a touchdown.  Jets 17  Lions 20

New England (-5) @ Cleveland
The Browns have been scrappy this season, but there is some bad blood with Coach Hoodie not being a fan of Coach Mangenius.  If the Pats have the opportunity, they are going to pile it on the Browns in this matchup.  The Browns are starting Colt McCoy who hasn't been spectacular and will need to be if they want to keep up with the high scoring Pats.  Pats 35  Browns 17

NY Giants @ Seattle  (+7)
Seattle stud 1st round draft pick Russell Okung is out again this week and so is former Pro-Bowl QB Matt Hasslebeck.  The Giants were playing really well heading into their bye week and are clearly the better team here.  The Qwest home field advantage and a motivated Seahawks squad are factors to consider before laying any cheese on this one.  Giants 23  Seahawks 20

Kansas City (+1) @ Oakland
Who would have thought this might be might be the game of the week with both teams playing well this season.  The Raiders are playing with confidence and it may be tough to back the Chiefs on the road here, but star corner Nnamdi Asomugha is out and the chiefs should be able to run on the 31st ranked run defense if this game is close in the second half.  Chiefs 23 Raiders 20.

Indianapolis (+3) @ Philladelphia
The Colts should not be getting points from anyone.  We like them to win straight up.  Colts 28 Eagles 20.

Dallas @ Green Bay (-7.5)
Hard to imagine the 1-6 Cowboys keeping this game close against the Packers.  The weakness of the Packers is their run defense, but that is also the weakness of the Cowboys who are second last in the league in rushing yards.  Cowboys 21  Packers 34

Pittsburgh (-4) @ Cinncinati
The Bengals deva wide receivers will love the spotlight on Monday night football, but this team is no match for the powerhouse steelers.  Steeler 23  Bengals 9

Check back for Best Bets before kickoff.