Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Can Hardly Contain the Excitement!
Every day from now until Selection Sunday is jammed with great games, all that homework you have been doing during the regular season NOW needs to be applied!!! We got multiple conference tourneys kicking off today and money to make. Time to get white hot and take a shot on some games!
Playing teasers has been a good play with oddmaker's lines being super sharp at this time of year. Case in point, last night of the 18 games only 4 results did not fall within 10 points of the spread. (i.e. a 10 point teaser had a 32/36 chance of winning or 89%!!! With the home teams covering the four games that fell outside of 10pts of the spread)
We see a few games already to play.....
Alabama -12.5 vs Auburn: (5:00pm PST Tip)
With JaMychal Green back from suspension, Alabama is re-establishing themselves as a solid SEC team. After winning their last three games, and upcoming winnable games vs Auburn and Ole Miss to finish the season, Alabama looks to get to a surprising 10-6 in the SEC and build some momentum heading into the tourney. No doubt here, Auburn is a bottom feeder in the SEC. Losers of 5 of their last 6 and 4-10 in conference play - this team lost to Alabama threes weeks ago by 18. Expect more of the same tonight and love Alabama at home teased down to either -4.5 (8pt teaser) or -2.5 (10 pt teaser) as we expect them to cover the spread today.
Purdue -11.5 vs Penn State (3:30pm PST tip)
This line opened up at -9.5 as was quickly bet up to 11.5, easy to see why. Penn State is 1-11 on the road this year. That one win was at the very bad Boston College on Nov 30th!! Penn State is clearly the bottom of the Big 10 and looking forward to next year. Purdue has caught fire as we approach march. Winners of 4 of their last 5 including key victories against Michigan and Illinois on the road. Their lone loss, was when DJ Bird and Barlow were suspended vs #5 ranked Michigan State on Feb 19th. Purdue is now playing much better basketball when it counts, DJ Bird is back, and it has been addition by subtraction with Barlow being kicked off the team. This is a bit of sandwich gaame after the big win @ Michigan and an upcoming matchup @ #20 Indiana on Sunday, but it is senior day for Robbie Hummel and expect Purdue to send him off as a winner tonight. Love Purdue in a 8pt or 10pt teaser as they should roll Penn State.
Lehigh -21 vs Colgate (4:00pm PST tip)
No not the toothpaste, but Colgate the Patriot league bottom feeder (2-12 in conference, 8-21 overall), travels to Lehigh in what should be a complete mismatch. These two teams have already played twice this year and Lehigh won by 20 and 22 points. Lehigh is on a collison course with Bucknell for the Patriot League championship and the auto birth to the big dance. Expect Lehigh to take care of business tonight in this Patriot League Quarterfinal - love them in a 10 pt tease.
New Mexico -16.5 vs Air Force (5:00pm PST tip)
Just a week ago New Mexico was the hottest team in college basketball, winners of 7 in row and back to back wins vs ranked San Diego State and UNLV. What a difference a week makes. Going on the road and losing to a fiesty Colorado State was not a suprise, and then a loss to TCU and suddenly New Mexico is no good anymore? Expect them to get back on track tonight at home vs Air Force. New Mexico beat this team by 39 points last time out - expect this one to be a little closer, but not that close. New Mexico in a 8 or 10 pt teaser looks like a strong play today.
Some leans to.....
Belmont (-16) vs Jacksonville (tipping at 11:30am PST) - Atlantic Sun Quarterfinal
Bucknell (-17.5) vs Navy (tip at 4:00pm PST) - Patriot League Quarterfinal - Navy is winless in conference play this year.
Portland (-1) vs Santa Clara (tip at 9:00pm PST) - West Coast Conference Tourney - SC is 0-16 in conference play this year.
More research to come......
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Bracketology Report #1......get those straight-jackets to the drycleaners for the MaDneSs!!!!!!
Finally gotta break,......it's a bit mashed up, but this was an email to Insanity Report Staff...thought I'd share to the world. Here's our latest Bracketology Report
Friday, February 10, 2012
DUKE 85 @ UNC 84....TAR HEEL MELTDOWN
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Damn Duke and Damn those Hedge Bets
Jumping straight to the end of the story moral and it is STICK TO YOUR GUNS!
As a card carrying tax payer with blood type Tar Heel Blue positive, its in my dna to hate the Puke Poo Devils, but as a college hoop nut, one has to respect Coach Sha-gets-the-most-outta-his-talent-ski! But too much respect was given last night with the +7 point bet of Duke at The Ohio State Buckeyes.
To put it simply, just like a Mr. Big choco bar, when you play that good like Ohio State did, they call you THE!
Jared Sullinger was unstoppable last night. Duke tried an out-of-character 2-3 zone in the end of the 1st half that led to a huge run by the Buckeyes to go into halftime up 19. Then it was off to the races. Ball game!
OSU stamped the second half as a statement game as Coach Thad Motta left the starters in until about 2 min left in the game where Coach K played his bench pretty much for the whole 2nd half.
This also stamped CrazyDavoA's stupid stupid halftime hedge bet of Duke to win the 2nd half by 1.5 points. Ouch!
Stick to your guns Adolph and hate the Poo Devils and make an effing profit!
Everything about last night was uncharacteristic of Duke, especially that 2-3 zone. It was literally 5 pylons standing in the 2-3 formation with zero movement. Ohio State just cut to the free throw circle at will for uncontested 8-10 foot jumpers. My coed basketball team could've broken that zone!
Also, Duke's frontcourt must've stayed back in Durham, because Miles Plumlee was as inspiring as a pregame speech from the Hoodie himself, Bill Bellichek! Mason Plumlee stamped himself as a useless big bodied Dukie. He is first ballot Useless Slug Hall of Famer with former Dukie, Greg Newton having a statue outside that great hall. Ryan Kelly also came back down to earth too with a performance reminiscent of a Dave Adolph's Mudhen coed basketball league performance.
Austin Rivers remains to be a talent but continues to force shots like a bald headed Kobe Bryant in his rookie season. The remaining guards were no where to be seen.
All in all an uncharacteristic evening leading to an uncharacteristic third person reference of CrazyDavoA in todays blog.
My apologies.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Some takes for tonights games
DUKE +7.5 @ OHIO STATE
A true test for both sides. Duke on the points looks like the play based on Duke's tougher sked leading up to tonights game. But OSU's personel advantage with Jared Sullinger who D$'s scouting report has said has slimmed down.
Duke's depth at frontcourt will give Sullinger a tough game. Sr. Fwd Mason Plumlee is an underachieving forward but his size and willing to bang will make Sully earn his hoops. Jr. Fwd Miles Plumlee should drop his 10-12 underwhelming yet efficient points to go with Ryan Kelly's jumpers and 10-14 points.
The match up at guard is intriguing with Soph PG Aaron Craft taking on FR Guard Austin Rivers or converted PG Seth Curry.
The most intriguing one will be OSU's William Buford vs. Duke's Andre Dawkins.
Overall one could convince me to take OSU but alas there's the Coach Krazy-chef-in-your-kitchen-ski factor and this fits Duke's overrated m.o, they'll get big wins and earn a #1 ranking in the nation only to fall unexpectedly to a Virginia type team or Maryland on the road in ACC sked.
This should be a back and forth battle so 7.5 points is a good cushion.
ST. LOUIS -9 @ LOYALA MARYMOUNT
Head Coach Rick Makerus is turning the Bilikens around after a controversy filled season off the court last season. They won an underwhelming tourney at the 76 Classic last week but Majerus' stingy defense should be too much for LMU tonight.
Monday, November 28, 2011
Long Beach State +11 @ Louisville
Trying a new format here with emailing from the ol mobile. That's cell phone for those of you not from England.
We're loving Long Beach State on the road tonight in the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky. Ever since Louisville moved into the YUM! Center they've received an extra five points on the spread for the name alone! It's just a way to recognize a facility with an actual exclamation mark in the name and it'll (11 herbs and) spice up the spread too. (Hayyyyy ohhhh!)
This is an even match up here due to the personel alone and due to Louisville's current injury status.
From a straight personel status, the LBC State have a six man, sometimes seven man rotation made up of entirely Juniors and Seniors. They are led by ex-Gonzaga head coach Dan Monson who preceded Mark Few. He was obviously another mid major casualty in the major ranks when he parlayed his Elite Eight run with Gonzaga back in the late 90's to a forgettable 5-6 year run in Minnesota. He has landed in the LBC and has used his first 4 years there to mold this lineup into a definite mid major threat.
You can tell that LB State was full of undisciplined pick up players in their freshmen and sophomore seasons, but Monson has used his patience to mold this group's skill into a disciplined and opportunistic bunch.
LB State is led by Sr. G Casper Ware who will get Reggie Miller type screens to hit open treys. But Ware is capable to create his own trey but his strength is in the open court. He will explode into transition and is fearless attacking the hoop. Being under 6-0 feet tall is no hindrance as his explosive jump gives him some airtime to fanagel (or fahnaygel?) the attempted blocks into easy lay ups and and-1's.
I'll pay to watch Ware on his drives from the wing alone. He has such a quick and explosive first step, to go with such long strides that allows him to be as creative as a Bob Ross painting. Ware definitely doesn't make any mistakes but he has happy accidents on his drives to the hole.
Overall, Ware is a patient player on the offensive side with not forcing the shots he takes which for many are the type of shots that could be forced for 20-25 shots per game. Ware is a very under rated defender as an average one-on-one defender but great great ball denyer. He can ice opposing team top scorers from getting the ball before he can averagely close out and defend him.
JUCO transfer, James Ennis is a 6-5 guard with a wing span longer than Paulsen's go-go gadget arms at KFC! NO ONE and I mean no one can crossover Ennis as his long reach will steal it. As the top of LB States 1-2-2 zone, Ennis' reach gets in the passing lanes so much that they might as well be playing a 2-2-2 zone. His steal totals may not reflect it but his reach is something opposing teams will avoid like QB 's avoided Deion Sanders.
Also look for 6-5 small forward Larry Anderson to take smaller checks into the paint for easy mismatch layups.
LB State has a bad half court defense in terms of their footwork in the post matchups and non-chalant close outs on the wings. But their athleticism and effort on defense will lead to the high percentage shots on their lightening quick transition game. Their team First Step into transition is quicker than Adolph walking through the racoon-infested path to his apartment building!
And Louisville is still a good team, but their depth has definitely been challenged with their rash of injuries early in the season. They are playing with Sr PG Peyton Siva who is severely limited on offense but can play serviceable defense on his sprained ankle.
Fwd. Kyle Kuric is holding up the ship with streaky shooting and opportunistic garbage put backs. And Rakeem Buckles is their only threat as a scorer as Louisville's sixth man. He should be hitting the starting line up soon enough with Louisvilles MASH unit they're displaying.
Louisvilles defense will suffocate most of LB State's posessions but the LBC will get their transition opportunities. But Louisvilles lack of size in the paint will only help LB States obvious athleticism advantage. Plus this team doesn't jack the treys like Rick Pitino coached teams usually do, so the weak close-outs shouldn't be a factor.
LB State may even walk away with another BCS upset like they did in Pitt a couple weeks back, but if they don't, the Easycovers Staff loves the 11 point cushion. Long Beach has followed their Pitt game with a loss to Montana of all schools, but tonights game should motivate them to step their game up immediately from tip off.
vs. Pitt, LB State and Ware were unconscious from down down which led to the 10-12 point cushion they held the whole game, and once they cooled off, Pitt's "Grade-8 dance"-like lack of initiative and LB State's transition made it a trading hoops game. Even if LB State and Ware aren't as hot tonight, their consistent strengths should keep the score close towards another trading-hoops affair.
Again loving the 11 point cushion.
Good luck
CrazyDavoA out!