Playing teasers has been a good play with oddmaker's lines being super sharp at this time of year. Case in point, last night of the 18 games only 4 results did not fall within 10 points of the spread. (i.e. a 10 point teaser had a 32/36 chance of winning or 89%!!! With the home teams covering the four games that fell outside of 10pts of the spread)
We see a few games already to play.....
Alabama -12.5 vs Auburn: (5:00pm PST Tip)
With JaMychal Green back from suspension, Alabama is re-establishing themselves as a solid SEC team. After winning their last three games, and upcoming winnable games vs Auburn and Ole Miss to finish the season, Alabama looks to get to a surprising 10-6 in the SEC and build some momentum heading into the tourney. No doubt here, Auburn is a bottom feeder in the SEC. Losers of 5 of their last 6 and 4-10 in conference play - this team lost to Alabama threes weeks ago by 18. Expect more of the same tonight and love Alabama at home teased down to either -4.5 (8pt teaser) or -2.5 (10 pt teaser) as we expect them to cover the spread today.
Purdue -11.5 vs Penn State (3:30pm PST tip)
This line opened up at -9.5 as was quickly bet up to 11.5, easy to see why. Penn State is 1-11 on the road this year. That one win was at the very bad Boston College on Nov 30th!! Penn State is clearly the bottom of the Big 10 and looking forward to next year. Purdue has caught fire as we approach march. Winners of 4 of their last 5 including key victories against Michigan and Illinois on the road. Their lone loss, was when DJ Bird and Barlow were suspended vs #5 ranked Michigan State on Feb 19th. Purdue is now playing much better basketball when it counts, DJ Bird is back, and it has been addition by subtraction with Barlow being kicked off the team. This is a bit of sandwich gaame after the big win @ Michigan and an upcoming matchup @ #20 Indiana on Sunday, but it is senior day for Robbie Hummel and expect Purdue to send him off as a winner tonight. Love Purdue in a 8pt or 10pt teaser as they should roll Penn State.
Lehigh -21 vs Colgate (4:00pm PST tip)
No not the toothpaste, but Colgate the Patriot league bottom feeder (2-12 in conference, 8-21 overall), travels to Lehigh in what should be a complete mismatch. These two teams have already played twice this year and Lehigh won by 20 and 22 points. Lehigh is on a collison course with Bucknell for the Patriot League championship and the auto birth to the big dance. Expect Lehigh to take care of business tonight in this Patriot League Quarterfinal - love them in a 10 pt tease.
New Mexico -16.5 vs Air Force (5:00pm PST tip)
Just a week ago New Mexico was the hottest team in college basketball, winners of 7 in row and back to back wins vs ranked San Diego State and UNLV. What a difference a week makes. Going on the road and losing to a fiesty Colorado State was not a suprise, and then a loss to TCU and suddenly New Mexico is no good anymore? Expect them to get back on track tonight at home vs Air Force. New Mexico beat this team by 39 points last time out - expect this one to be a little closer, but not that close. New Mexico in a 8 or 10 pt teaser looks like a strong play today.
Some leans to.....
Belmont (-16) vs Jacksonville (tipping at 11:30am PST) - Atlantic Sun Quarterfinal
Bucknell (-17.5) vs Navy (tip at 4:00pm PST) - Patriot League Quarterfinal - Navy is winless in conference play this year.
Portland (-1) vs Santa Clara (tip at 9:00pm PST) - West Coast Conference Tourney - SC is 0-16 in conference play this year.
More research to come......
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