Final 4 MADNESS!!

Mac Attack

The Madness has reached a whole new level of craziness this past weekend.  Two mid-majors pulling upsets over major conference favourites and advancing to the final four!!  Truly Amazing!

No doubt you will hear all the experts putting their spin on this year's tourney, but this has been all about riding the cinderella teams and fade the favourites.   Not a single #1 or #2 seed advanced to the Final 4 for the first time since the tourney format was changed to 64 teams in 1979.  This has caused the wiseguys to struggle mightily when trying to get ahead of public perception which usually is a key to their success.  But the tournament 'is a different animal' as mentioned by Pregame.com on numerous occasions and has to be bet that way.

VCU WHO?? 

Before breaking down the game from a gambling prospective, we saw one stat that made our jaw drop a bit.  If you had simply put $10 down on VCU money line at the start of tourney and let the profits ride through each round, you would have made nearly $14,000.00!!!!  This is an underdog that has paid some big $ to whoever has been riding this hot streak   OK, here we go....

#8 Butler (-2.5) vs #11 VCU.  Total Set to 133.  

(TIP @ 6:09pm EST)

As J-Dawg tweeted, Kansas had a pathetic performance on Sunday.  KU didn't guard anyone and was a wretched 2 for 21 when shooting 3 point FGs (9.8%).  UNBELIEVABLE!  They shot 15 for 28 from the FT line (53%) and still managed to somehow stay in the game until the last two minutes.  VCU in contrast shot a solid 12 for 25 (48%) from beyond the arc and 17 for 22 (77%) from the FT line.  KU had a really off night for whatever reason and VCU couldn't miss.  The VCU defense is good, but not that good and got a bit lucky here to catch KU off its game.

VCU also got lucky against Florida who decided to go for the glory shot when having last possession to win the game in the dying seconds twice.  Instead of getting an easier shot from in close, Erving Walker tries to jack a late three for the glory win and missed. VCU was able to barely claw it out in OT.

Don't want to discount VCU beating USC, Georgetown, and Purdue early on, but all of these programs had some internal turmoil heading into the tourney and weren't playing their best basketball against VCU and they - to their credit - took advantage.  Well done by them.

Brad Stevens

As for Butler, they haven't lost in nearly two months.  Forcing teams to play at their pace and their style.  Grinding games out and winning them late.  This team has the experience from going to the Final Four last year and has been playing well throughout the tourney.  D$ also thinks there is a coaching advantage leaning towards Butler, as Brad Stevens is one of the best coaches in American.  (Not just the best up and coming coach - but right now folks!!)

Coach Stevens should be able to draw up a good game plan to neutralize the outside game VCU was able to exploit against Kansas and the two teams play similar styles which leads to me to believe Butler has the advantage here.   Add last year's FInal 4 experience and VCU's inexperience and you can easily tell who I like in this game.

The Vegas Odds makers have been producing super sharp lines and 2.5 is a fair line.  Of the two semi-final games this one scares me the most as Butler could easily win this game by 1 or 2 points and not cover, but I like them to win by more than 3 and will be my play in the early game.
Butler 65,  VCU 60.


#4 Kentucky (-2.0) vs Connecticut.  Total set at 140.

Kemba Walker

(TIP :  9:49pm EST)

The second game of the night features two young teams who are both playing really well right now.

Kemba Walker has lead the UConn Huskies to an impressive 5 game winning streak in the Big East Tourney and followed that up with Four Impressive Tourney wins.  Freshmen Jeremy Lamb has led the supporting cast for the Huskies and they have jelled well over the past three weeks.  We don't think that fatigue will be factor to consider as this team will have nearly a week to rest and they are extremely well coached with Jim "gun-slinger" Calhoune running the show.  They will be ready and not afraid of Kentucky.

Brandon Knight

As for Kentucky, beating Ohio State and UNC in back to back games showed the nation that this team is for real.  Never been a big Calapari fan, but this team is young and talented and peaking when it counts.

Both of these teams have come a long way since December and the young players have developed into good players.  Kentucky may even have a slight chip on their shoulder as they lost on Nov. 24th when these two teams played - a factor that should not be overlooked.

What has been under-rated about Kentucky is that they are playing great defense the past two months and according to kenpom.com have a very efficient offense to go along with it.

If Brandon Knight and Deron Lamb can neutralize Kemba and Jeremy for UConn, I think the rest of Ketucky has a slight advantage over UConn and I see them advancing to play for the championship - against Butler. Give me Kentucky 69, UConn 63.  

Stay tuned for Futures and props bets we like as the week progresses.
Until then.  D$ OUT

VCU Riots and Celebrates Final 4

Great moment for VCU University, plus a little rioting.  Feel the MADNESS!!!

Elite 8

Ok here we go 2 games to break down and 3 plays. We start with Butler who is +4.5 vs Florida. I just can't pick against this Butler team and the gutty play of Mack on the outside and Howard on the inside, and the master strategist Brad Stevens patrolling the sideline. I like Butler to keep this close and at the end of the day probably win the game outright.

The second game has the Huskies of UConn taking on an Arizona team that is reminding me of the 1988 Kansas Jayhawks with Derrick Williams playing the role of DannyManning. But the Huskies Kemba Walker has been equally impressive. This is handicapping 101 Arizona being completely over valued after that impressive 2nd half against Duke. The over is also inflated after Arizona scored 55 second half points on Thursday. We feel comfortable recommending both UConn -3 and over 146.

Whether betting or not these should be two outstanding games.

Jdawg.

JESUS!!!! I MEAN JIMMER!!!! MY BAD!!! KU!!!! Oh yeah.....

Where is my head!?!?!

T-Smack, that was a complete misunderstanding on my part......got home last night and posted a quick reply.......forgetting to smack on KU is like forgetting to wake up and shave....in the commish's case, to pluck his 5 chin whiskers!

T-Smack here goes:

KU.....didn't watch the middle of the game because of the complete outclassing of the Rich-what!?!?!? Rich-the-clock-stirkes-midnight Spiders!!! Basically all pistons firing for the Rock Chalk Jayhawks last night. No bust out games, because the game was over after the first 5 minutes. So Coach Bill Self was seen already breaking down VCU/FSU game tape on the sidelines!!! And T(Almost) Smack McKaig (not T(real) Smack McCarrell), to be fair, this dub can be "blamed" on Self! Flawless game plan for KU.....Self wrote the entire game plan on the whiteboard before the game, and it said, "SHOW UP!"

Morris Twins are busting out, but one call out must be made on KU's run. They've faced no one higher then a 9 seed. They put a wallop on everyone, where the talking is indeed done on the court, but there has yet to be a presence in the paint to muscle the Twins. That is their krptonite and with no one on VCU imposing any threat in the paint, you can chalk the Jayhawks into the Final 4 and cement Carrie Watts Insanity Pool Championship!!!!!

Rock Chalk Jayhawks T-Smack, the bouquet of Jayhawk Lillies have been FTD'd!

Commish-Dopey-Dish out

Hard Core Pawn

Elite 8 action starts this afternoon - with everyone's brackets now broken we can focus on the Madness and predict who is gonna win with only two games today.

Currently Butler is a 4 point dog to Florida with the total set to 133.  Easycovers correspondents having a lot of trouble picking a side.  Florida should be able to dominate inside as bigger and stronger and their guard play has improved the past month with Erving Walker and Kenny Boyton.   BUT the Bulldogs of Butler are a scrappy, experience bunch who are getting hot at the right time of year and extremely well coached as Jdawg mentioned yesterday.

The lean is to back the favourite with a gun to our heads, but might be wise to save your cheese for the other games which we like better.

Got Gus and Lenny calling the game today, which would normally be awesome, but Reggie Miller is tagging along again.  (Definitely a third wheel that kills any mojo.)  Hopefully we get more moments like this one from Round #2.  Nice little under-rated promo.

BONUS:  VCU Celebration Last Night - Skip to 1:45 to see their victory Dance

SWEET 16 RECAP

Sweet 16 is set!!! Wow, some snoozers and some doozers! Gotta agree with K-Watt's dismay with Reggie Miller's addition to Gus Johnson's squad. Except for when Gus rips Reggie about Cheryl, Reggie should leave Gus and Len Elmore to call the doozers. And speaking of snoozers...snap on the snoozer bumper sticker on Marv Albert's calls. He called a great FSU/VCU game. And with some great and-1's, he didn't drop his famous, "YESSSSS, AAAAND IT COUNTS!!!!" What's wrong Marv? NCAA Hoops don't carry enough bite!?!?

Back to the games.

ARIZONA 93 DUKE 77
T went nuts today when we broke this game down, but it still must be said, this win for Zona is on Derrick Willaims and Arizona's hot shooting, but the loss is on Coach Has-a-crush-on-Kyrie-ski!!!

How do you give most of the touches to Kyrie Irving after he was out for 3 months!?!? He finished with 28 points, but Nolan Smith got Duke to this point, and finishes with 2 points!?!? Smith pulled Jimmer-like miracles all year by turning high ball screen into buckets. Nolan was unstoppable!! So when Arizona was going unconscious, why didn't Coach Will-probably-sit-on-the-CBS-panel-ski call at least one high ball screen to answer Zona's barrage of hoops? They may have not been able to stop Zona's hot streak, but Nolan Smith could have fought fire with fire off those high ball screens.

But not even the ghost of John Wooden's retinal scan into the Coach K's Lair could answer why Coach K, didn't give the Poo Devils a chance to win.

Even with Nolan going Nolan, it would have been tough to beat Arizona on that night. Kudos D-Will!!! And the Tar Heel nation down Tobacco Road thanks you Coach Shove-Kyrie-down-our-throat-ski.

FLORIDA 83 BYU 74 (O.T)
Bottom line, Jimmer ran out of gas. He still had a great season, but I gotta admit, in not seeing much tape on him, I assumed his 1.3 steals per game showed that he had some defense in his arsenal. But with Florida going after their last shot with 7 seconds left in the 2nd half, their missed shot from the left side went to the right side of the court, and both BYU posts made good block outs and the Florida rebound was from Jimmer's check coming all the way from the top of the key! That's bad enough, but Jimmer's reaction to the o-board was a non-chalant close-out! Shame Jimmer! If you get that rebound, you have the ball with 4-5 seconds left to win in regulation.

Shoulda woulda coulda! Jimmer had many chucks from down town before and after that bad block out, and he just ran out of steam.

Florida fills the role of "that team" that goes far in the tourney despite one's lack of respect for that team. The Gators are this year's Tennessee. They're in tough v. Butler tomorrow.

BUTLER 61 WISCONSIN 54
Butler just went Butler. I was blinded by my respect for Wisconsin and Bo Ryan because I've had the Big Ten Network up my butt all year. Paulsen was yelling on the top of his lungs in the Insanity Room saying, "Trust in the Butler!"

J-Dawg has a great point in Butler Head Coach, Brad Stevens being one of the best in-game coaches this side of a Bobby Knight chair-throw. Butler's bigs in Matt Howard should match up well vs. SEC Player of Year, Chandler Parsons. This is a great match-up, and we're gonna ride the Butler train tomorrow v. Butler!

UCONN 74 SDSU 67
Kemba Walker. Ahhhh thank you!

KENTUCKY 62 OHIO STATE 60
Tonnes of credit to senior centre, Josh Harrelson ruling the boards and making timely hoops to pace Kentucky with timely defense and 3's. Ohio State played well, but Kentucky made the last shot and Ohio State had a good luck at the buzzer and Kenucky rolls on!

UNC 81 MARQUETTE 63
Men vs. Boys. No no no, UNC-Men vs. Marquette-boys, not Duke-boys. Boom!!

VCU 72 FSU 71 (OT)
D-Watt put it perfectly when there was lack of checking in on this game because, "No one has any of these team in their brackets!!" But the ending was a great end to head into overtime, despite an anti-climatic call by Marv.

That's it, lets get our Elite 8 on tomorrow.

Commish A-Dish

Friday Night Madness

Ok one round of sweet 16 games down and one more to go. Before we get into today's games lets look back at last nights match-up. We were 1-1 in our recommended games 1-1 in our "gun to the head games".

Looking back despite scoring 28 points the presence of Kyrie Irving seemed to have a negative impact on Duke. There normally efficient offense looked out of sorts all night and having Irving in the line-up seemed to nullify Nolan Smith who had been the emotional leader of Duke all season long. As many people predicted Duke struggled with a more athletic and long Arizona team that after hanging with Duke in the first half dominated the second half.

Butler just keeps on rolling as they beat a Wisconsin team that just looked awful on offense! Brad Stevens once again showed he is the BEST game coach in the country. Give him a week to prepare and he isn't going to lose many. Butler is going to be a tough out in this tournament.

In the other 2 games as we predicted here Florida avenged last years loss against BYU but it was not easy. Using a few more big bodies throughout the game paid off in overtime as Florida appeared to be the much fresher team. The Jimmer run ends but he is what the madness is all about, and yes he can play in the NBA, because he can create his own shot better than any college player in the game today. In one of Coach Calhouns's best coaching jobs in his long storied career a very young UConn team advanced past San Diego State led by Kimba Walker who is having as good a run in this NCAA tournament as anyone.

On to today. We have two picks again for you today one side and an over/under. First we will go with UNC and the fairly short price of -4. This is a very bad match-up for Marquette. First they like to run and that plays right into the transition game of the Tar Heels, and Marquette will have no answer for Zeller and Stevens inside. Take the Heels.

We will also take the under in the FSU/VCU game. The Seminoles have the best defensive FG% in the country and will force VCU to grind it out every possession. We think this will be a very close low scoring game, give VCU a look at +3 but take the under 131.

The other two games we don't have a very good feeling about as both games have inflated lines. We would lean to Richmond +10.5, but would not risk our hard earned money. The other game has an inflated line after Ohio State crushed George Mason minus their best player. We like the Buckeyes to win but the -6 and increasing by the minute line is to high and over priced.

Good Luck and we will be down to 8 after tonight.

Jdawg.

The Madness Returns Sweet 16 Picks

Ok we are down to the sweet 16 so lets take a look at the 4 match-ups tonight:
I have two games I really like tonight and will be investing my own money. The Florida Gators will avenge last year's NCAA tournament loss and beat BYU. Last years stinging double ot loss to the Cougars is still very fresh on Florida's mind and I expect a monumental effort from the Gators, and at a relatively short price of -2 we will take the Gators. Don't forget BYU lost in December to UCLA a team Florida had litttle trouble dispatching on Saturday.

I also expect the NCAA Tournament magic to end for Butler tonight and we will take the Wisconsin Badgers -4.5. This game will feature two of the brightest coaches in the nation who make the most out of their talent. We think Wiscy can go inside and have the guard play to deal with Shelvin Mack. The Badgers have some of the best foul shooting in the nation and this should allow them to extend the lead.

The other two games we will not bet, but if you put a gun to my head I would take the points in both games. The San Diego State Aztecs are playing less then 90 minutes from home and should have a partisan crowd in their favor. That should be enough to beat a young but very talented Uconn team.

I would also take Arizona +9. I think the Wildcats have enough talent to hang around and former Xavier coach Sean Miller has plenty of experience in the sweet 16. Duke will win but it will be closer than expected.

Enjoy the games and good luck!