AFC SOUTH PREVIEW

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Count Peyton out until at least mid-November according to reports from espn.com. But now that they have revealed that he has had 3 neck surgeries in 19 months for a herniated disc, and that this most recent surgery was a “one-level cervical neck fusion” reaks of the likelihood that Peyton could miss the entire season.

Peyton has now officially hit his Stone Cold Steve Austin years. While most will continue to eagerly wait for his return, when he actually does, Indy fans will be so happy to see him under Colts Center, Jeff Saturday that few will realize that the Peyton Manning we once knew will never be the same. That stinks, and I hope I’m wrong, but we’ll probably see Peyton chug beers off the middle turn buckle rather than execute some Stone Cold Stunners on the Texans.

Speaking of which, expect a great effort from the Colts this weekend, but with the news of Peyton’s surgery, there will be little wind in the sails of Indy’s battle ship. It’ll take 3-4 weeks for the Colts to overcome the shock. Plus Kerry Collins is not the answer and I smell a David Garrard deal announcement coming soon.

HOUSTON TEXANS

Everyone says this is the year for the Texans. For those Canadians out there, the Texans are the Calgary Flames of the NFL. They reak of high expectations with superstar, big-name players at all core positions, but have a history of not getting it done.

They tried to find some answers with the hiring of Wade Phillips at Defensive Coordinator going from one uncertain situation in Dallas to a similar high pressure deliver now-situation in Houston. This is oddly similar to the hiring of Mike Keenan as Head Coach in Calgary a few seasons back. The outlook for Houston seems to be similar for the Texans as it was for the Flames: another underachieving non-playoff season.

Personally, there is a hatred for the Texans as my picks for Houston games last year was like Michael Bolton trying to change lanes in “Office Space”…..always too late. When I thought the Texans would shine they’d bust and when I’d think they’d tank then they’d blow out teams. I’ll take the feeler bet on the Texans over the Colts this week, but it’ll be a tough read for the rest of the season.

They got a great group of players, but over the past 2-3 years have not had the right mix at the right time.

Now rethinking about all of the under-achieving….there’s the Peyton news and now Jacksonville’s cost-cutting moves to get rid of a competent starting QB. Let’s not forget Houston’s favorable schedule with a depleted divisional sked and non division games vs. Miami, Oakland, Cincinnati and Carolina. This could parallel a stay of execution like all the artificial economic stimulus packages in the Unites States. Houston may finally make the playoffs this year, but like the Amerrrr-can economy, they will eventually collapse.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Speaking of economics, how bout cutting your starting QB a week before your first game of the season right after a strike shortened off-season to save $9 million!?!?!?!? Garrard is a competent QB, and deserves some criticism in his game, but cutting him to save a buck and relegating to a rookie QB does not bode well for the already empty fan base in J-Ville.

There are great reports on rookie QB, Blaine Gabbert, but if he will be a great field general it won’t be this year. Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman were highly touted in their rookie years as well, achieving 3 and 1 win season respectively. It’ll be a long year for J-Ville and Mo-Jones Drew.

TENNESSEE TITANS

This’ll be a year of extremes. Either the Titans with their new Head Coach and new vet QB will prosper from the new scenery and new Peyton-less AFC South sked. Or they will have no chemistry and tank like the Colts.

The last time Matt Hasselbeck had an all-world Running Back, his team happened to go to the Super Bowl. Now that’s obviously not imminent but the change of scenery was needed for Elizabeth Hasselbeck’s bro-in-law. He was done in Seattle, but the question remains whether he is a good veteran QB that’ll pave the way for up-n-comer QB Jake Locker or whether he’s a washed up QB who only flourished under Mike Holmgren’s tutelage from his Green Bay and Seattle days.

Chris Johnson is way too fast to be rusty, so bank on him to get his yards, so the only question remains about the lackluster defense of Tennessee and they’re woeful secondary.

It’ll be a banner year or a long rebuilding process. I say they surprise some people. The chemistry issue with new personnel will hinder most teams, but some will flourish, and I think Tennessee will be one of those teams.

AFC NORTH: The Black and Blue Division

First of all, this whole division gets a friggin gift in the schedule by being paired with the NFC West in the crossover games in the schedule!

ATS-wise, the AFC Norris Division is a horrible bet especially with the Pitt-Balt-Clev triumphirate. When they play each other, it’s a defensive pick ‘em game, and usually a tough under bet as over/under spreads should be in the teens. That may be good for a To-Catch-a-Predator captive, but not good for us gambling degenerates.

Let’s break it down:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Bottom line, they are the best run franchise in sports. Apologies to the Pats, Vancouver Canucks and of course the LA Dodgers, there is no better owners then the Rooney’s and no one runs a tighter ship then Head Coach, Mike Tomlin. Any comparisons to the Cincinnati Jail-gals from the Hines Ward DUI to James Harrison’s Commissioner Goodell threats have been taken care of a long long time ago by Coach Tomlin and Mr. Rooney.

Pittsburgh is a Top 5 team. That is no secret to anybody. But what could be a winner is that the suddenly powerful offense could steal us some wins on the initially low over-under bets. Cue in the To-Catch-a-Predator teen over/under spreads for divisional games, and they could be some easy over wins.

Speaking of To-Catch-a-Predator, credit must be given to Big Ben Roethlisberger for playing as well as he did after his suspension to start last season. Add in a full off-season where he married a non-co-ed and will be coming into the season just as sharp, if not more. Regardless of one’s opinion of Big Ben, he is one of the elite QB’s in the league with the likes of Brady, Rodgers, Brees and a healthy Peyton.

BALTIMORE RAVENS
Chemistry is the biggest question with the Ravens offense, followed by their aging defense. The Ravens lost Derrick Mason and Todd Heap, in the receiving corps but picked up a great receiver in Lee Evans from B-Lo. Will this be a great fit with Evans and Joe Flacco? Plus, the addition of FB Vonta Leach from Houston and RB Ricky Williams from The Fish may or may not be a great fit for tailback, Ray Rice. All this depends on chemistry. Will Flacco gel with Evans and will Vonta be OK with as limited amount of touches with Baltimore as he got in Houston?

And defense? Ray Lewis finds a way. That guy is more determined than a Maria Sharapova grunt. And Ed Reed will add to his Hall of Fame safety resume. But age creeps up to all the greats, so when will it happen? This year or next?

The Ravens are a great team with lotsa questions. Questions that will quickly be answered in Week 1 at home v. Pittsburgh. This game means more to Baltimore than it does for Pittsburgh. So a Pittsburgh cover with a definite over or a typical Black-n-Blue division match-up with Baltimore squeaking out a 13-10 game is a possibility.

This reaks of a stay-away game. Enjoy in on the Sunday Ticket, but I’ll be leaving this one alone.

CLEVELAND BROWNS
Talk about the NFL’s version of the loveable losers! The Browns made some strides last year with the breakout year by Peyton Hillis, and an underrated defense. There will be more strides made from the ousting last years Head Coach, Eric Non-genius for up and coming coach, Pat Shurmur.

2nd year QB, Colt McCoy is made for Cleveland as an under-sized, under-rated QB who will find ways to compete and win. If he eeks out some early wins, he’ll be a Dawg Pound favorite that hasn’t been seen since Bernie Kosar.

Cleveland is 2-3 years from being a legit team, but this years schedule vs. similarly questionable teams could inflate their win totals with home games vs. Cincy, Miami, Tennessee and Seattle to start the season. Their road game sked starts with trips to a possibly Peyton-less Colts, pathetic Raiders, San Fran and Texan team. They could be 4-4 at worst to start the season, but these spreads will be extremely tough to handicap.

Staying away from the Browns as well.

CINCINNATI BENGALS
Hmmm, new first year new QB? New first year receiver corps? New first year Offensive Coordinator? Jailbird Running Back who’s productivity is set to burst?

These are ingredients that are less than that of an expansion team! Welcome your UFL Cincinnati Bengals! The Bengals will be a gift game vs. the equally poor NFC East. Cue the Toilet Bowl Game of the Young Century on October 30th with Cincy at Seattle.

Prepare to win some cash in the early weeks as it'll take some time for the spreads to get to the +14 to +16 range they should be for the Bend-yet-break-gals

AFC East Preview

Alright, lets get down to bizness here. The lockout has been over for quite sometime and this “short” pre-season seems to have been dragging on for way too long!

D$ has broken down some win totals quite nicely and J-Dawg and I have been on the phone licking our chops at a Week 1 schedule that will be a money-maker SHAKER!!! As with most opening weeks, the oddsmakers don’t have a huge take on the teams just yet and hence spreads should be quite conservative with the highest spread being -7 pts. or even -9 pts. So, there should not be any double digit spreads where there will definitely be some double digit blow ups. I’m looking in your direction Shit-attle @ San Fran, Minnie-me-sota @ San Dee-ahhgo and the New York Football Giants @ the Wash-going-after-Andrew-Luck-ton Redskins!

But before we look deeper into the Week One sked, lets take a quick glance at all the teams. Perhaps there will be a self serving gripe or two towards some teams. Will you agree or disagree?

Lets get right into it alphabetically and geographically:

(enter the Monday Night Football symphony…..bahhhh dah ba da daaaahhhh)

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The class of the Division and supposedly the conference. I’m going anti-Dennis Green and won’t be so quick to crown The Hoodie’s and Tom Brady’s assess. Yes, they should get their 13-14 wins this season. As much as I respect the Hoodie’s program, everybody from Football blogging honks to the media are so quick to crown ‘dare asses-ezz!

The Pats offense will fly again year with a two Tight End set that will still give d-coordinators more anginas and heart palpitations then they’re already used to with their overworked, workaholic coaching lifestyles. I think the Hoodie has more wrinkles with this set that will surprise even Rex Ryan into preferring manicures. Now add the deep threats of Chad Ochocinco and Wes Welker and an under-rated running game! There is a potential for Madden stats ala 2006 again. Just not a 16-0 run though.

No 16-0 run?...well, the defense has to get better in clutch situations, such as on 3rd down, but we’ll have no take on this until games really matter deep into November-December anyways, so lets just be patient on Haynseworth and the D. The offense alone should win us some easy money within the first half the season?

Here’s the thing with not crowning The Pats so quickly…..everybody is so quick to either crown them or de-throne them that few will see the Pats for what the actually are, somewhere in the middle.

There is just a mini-gripe where last season everyone wanted to see the Pats rise to top so badly after a relatively tumultuous 10-6 record in 2009 and a 2008 Brady-less season, that few saw the Pats liability on defense that led to their “early” exit to the Jets in the playoffs.

This should occur this year when Brady gets 350 yds passing in Week 1 and he’ll be the second coming of Steamin’ Willie Beamon! Listen, the Pats are a Top 3 team and definite Super Bowl contender, but the NY Jets are a formidable division foe as well; Again, lemme be clear here, the Pats should get 13-14 wins, but just be careful betting for the Pats this year.

The huge love-in could overvalue the Pats with the spread pushed 2-3 points more than it should be. This may be a money-maker betting against the spread as the Pats may not cover in their straight-up wins with over-valued double digit spreads. Week 1 however? Bet the Pats hard on the road vs. a still unsure Fish team that played better away from Sun Life Stadium last season.

NEW YORK JETS
Killer defense and over-rated QB. Over-rated is too harsh, but credit should be given to the Fraud-chise I guess. He wins, but wins ugly. This year though, he has lost a lot of weapons on offense and it’s tough to say that Sanchez can carry a team like a healthy Peyton or Brady. Sanchise is more comparable to Ben Roethlisberger, but again, he doesn’t have the weapons Roth-less-assault-charges-this-summer-er has.

The schedule favors the Jets this year for 11-12 wins, but be prepared for an over-valued spread in the playoffs to win big money against the spread and especially on the moneyline. The Jets will fall….eventually.

MIAMI DOLPHINS
A lot of Joe Flacco-type flack goes out to QB Chad Henne, masking a killer Fish Defense. He may look a bit better than he is with the addition of Reggie Bush. I haven’t taken the kool-aid on the former Mr. Kardashian, but he does offer a formidable threat as a running back, and especially as a receiving back that is tailored towards the Fish’s offensive set. For the Fantasy Football honks out there, Reggie could be a mid-round steal.

With a defense as good as Miami’s, they will surprise some teams and possibly make the AFC East the deepest division with in the NFL with three 10-win teams. Definitely take the Fish at over 8 wins though. Sorry D$.

The Fish’s non-division games have a lot of winnable games. Add in an upset or two in the home-n-home games v. New England and the Jets games and on the road at the NY Football Giants and Philly. Remember, last year the Fish were a tough road team. This looks like a stay away bet now with the opposite team takes from D$ and Adolph. We’ll talk more in the conference room of course.

BUFFALO BILLS
Hmmmmm, no O’Line? No deep threats? No running game? No defense? Too bad for a gamer QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick. They offer great effort game in and game out, but just do not have the horses. There should be some money won here before the double digit spreads creep up. But they could make some moneyline cheddar at an equally horrible Chiefs squad in Week 1.

Christmas Eve for College Football Fans

Today is Christmas Eve for College Football fans as after a tumultous and scandal ridden off season, we can finally watch the sport we love on the field. I have to admit after reading The Gold Sheet's special ticker I thought I had just read the local crime blotter! It has been hard to igonore all of the off season issues and it has had its impact on betting lines as well.

After getting into a punch up at a Baton Rouge Bar LSU has seen their starting quarterback Jordan Jefferson and linebacker Joshua Johns be suspended for their opening game against Oregon at Texas Stadium. This line opened at LSU -3 and currently is back on the board at the LV Hilton at Oregon -3.5. Meanwhile with 13 current Miami (Florida) players being ruled ineligable, because of their dealings with booster/criminal Nevin Shapiro the line has had even more of a significant shift as it has moved from Miami -6 to Maryland as a 3 point favorite.

But tomorrow night when UNLV is led to the slaughter house in Madison, Wisconsin on ESPN, we can all finally put this behind us and watch some football. Tomorrow I will make my picks for Week 1 and will continue to do so throughout the college football season. Hopefully together we can have a profitable 2011 season!

Jdawg

NFL Season Win Totals

As expected, the landslide of player movement in the NFL has been fun to follow and gets everyone eager to place their first bets on the new season.  "Eager" is the key word as lots of casual bettors and fans have been reportedly heading to the betting windows and throwing down lots of action already.... we recommend that you proceed with caution.

A lot has happened over the past couple weeks which still needs some analysis.  Obviously some sexy moves were made by the Eagles (Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Cullen Jenkins, etc) grabbing attention, but do these moves necessary make the Eagles as good as they are being hyped now?  Chemistry and team play are vital to success.

Although the initial tidal wave of signings has pretty much subsided, there are still some minor moves being made and it is important right now to watch teams for key injuries before rushing in to make bets on games or on Super Bowl odds.  (In the first week alone there have been 10 torn achilles ending seasons for players like Detriot's 2nd Rounder Mikel Leshoure.)

We will instead take a quick look at the Season win totals and some plays we are leaning towards right now....

Cincinnati :
The Bengals started the season at 7.5 wins and that total was quickly bet down to 5.5 by Vegas sharps who smelled blood.  Starting a rookie QB, possessing a suspect running game, and a general loss of talent makes this a good UNDER play.  Having a hard time finding 6 wins in their schedule (which would be a two win improvement over last year).  Three or four wins seems much more realistic.

New Orleans :
The Saints are looking like a team who will be challenging to get back to the Super Bowl.  They were able to sign a majority of their free agents and add some new pieces, this roster is improved and loaded at each position. Drew Brees should be 100% healthy this year and have a solid running game to support him.  The Saints season win total is 10 and we like the OVER.  This looks like a 12 or 13 win squad.

Miami :
The Dolphins are going to have a great defense this year which should keep their games close, the offense and coaching staff are a mess though.  Starting QB Hanne is simply not good will have no confidence after the failed Orton trade. The running game looks to be suspect too with last years starting RBs (R. Williams & R. Brown) on different teams now and depeding on big production for Reggie Bush.  Vegas has this team at 7.5 wins for the seasons and we like the UNDER as it is going to be hard for them to get to 8 wins.

Washington :
The Redskins look like they are already making plans to select Stanford's Andrew Luck next year with the way they approached the offseason. Admire them for getting rid of problems McNabb and Hainesworth, but they didn't replace the talent level.  Weak QB play, washed up RBs, and no pass rush, have Vegas betting the total of 6.5 UNDER hard!  

San Diego
IF the Chargers can get off to strong start (big IF with Norv Turner at the helm), they should be the runaway winner in the AFC West and easily can go OVER the season win total of 10.  A renewed focus on Special Teams which cost them at least 2 games last season, Vincent Jackson in camp and playing a full season, plus some key additions and re-signing in the offseason (Spikes, Weddle), has this group poised to be a Superbowl dark horse.  Like this group to win 12 to 13 games.

A few other teams to consider taking the UNDER include:

• Kansas City (7.5) - Chiefs had the easiest schedule last year in the NFL and getting to 8 wins will be tougher this year.
• Minnesota (7.0) - Think McNabb may be washed up and the rest of the Vikings moves in the offseason doesn't inspire confidence in a tough division.
• NY Giants (9.5) - This team revamped its O-line, lost some key players, and has some bad mojo/karma going on right now. 

As for team to consider the OVER...

• Jacksonville (6.0) - With the Colts being weaker they have a chance to grab to AFC South and signed (overpaid) for some veterans to help the Jags at least maintain the 8-8 record from last year.
• St. Louis (7.5) - Count us on the bandwagon.  Solid QB. Improved depth at all positions.  A favourable schedule in the worst division. 

Enjoy pre-season Week #1 and get your notebooks ready to take notes!

Game ON!   D$ OUT

Football is back! Get ready for a crazy ride!

Colts center Jeff Saturday hugged Patriots
owner Robert Kraft, whose wife Myra died last
week, during Monday's news conference. 

Two words to everyone who follows the NFL :  Buckle Up!

With twitter feeds and websites constantly updating us on CBA talks, now the attention turns to the part which gamblers should be most concerned with : team rosters and schedules.

The NFL lockout is finally OVER and the next week should be compared to combining Thanksgiving and Christmas with the unprecedented amount of player transactions in a short time frame.

When making decisions on teams to bet on come September it will be important to watch very closely what teams do over the next 7-10 days.  This point cannot be stressed enough.

With a hard Salary Cap (est $120 Mill/team) and a huge pool of Free Agents to sign starting on Friday, studying the new additions to rosters, injury news, and trades will be extremely critical to early season success when betting on NFL. Teams with lower turnover of roster and who don't have any significant coaching changes stand to have an advantage as the season starts.  With less time to prepare rosters and no off season workouts it will be harder for teams with significant roster/coaching changes to catch up to others.

Happy to report that it is time to get the notebooks ready, buckle up, because here we go!!!

Can't Wait!

Are you ready for some football?

After 131 days, the NFL lockout is officially over!!

This afternoon the fans got their wish and the NFLPA and Owners held a press conference announcing they have agreed to terms to an agreement to bring back football!

More to come....

NFL.COM Link of NFLPA and Owner Press Conference

News and Notes from the past few months

May 11, 2011:

For many college hoop and sports fans the unthinkable happened as CBS did not renew Gus Johnson's contract.  Gus Johnson will be making the move to FOX.  He will be calling PAC12 College Football games this fall and it looks like he will be also announcing some NCAA games after the football season and continuing his duties with the BIG TEN network.  We can only hope that they can reach an agreement for him to announce NCAA tourney games next March otherwise it just won't be the same.

NY TIMES: Gus Johnson leaving CBS to move to FOX

June 30th 2011:

The NBA can't reach a deal with players and has caused another major lockout for US professional sports.  This one expects to be ugly and there is a real chance the NBA season may not happen in 2011-12.  The NBA is looking to re-vamp the economic framework for the game, which probably means more focus on hockey once Football and College Hoops is done in March.

NBA Goes into Lockout Mode

July 21, 2011:

After the US Department of Justice shut down some very popular online gambling domains (PokerStar, Full Tilt Poker, Ultimate Bet), two more major players in the online gambling world pulled out the USA.  BetJamica.com and thegreek.com who are trust sport books are no longer serving US customers.  Very disappointing turn of events for online gamblers.