NFL INSANITY REPORT Week 7 - #3‏

NOTE: This is Adolph's Insanity Report received via email

Ok, so, first off, D$, I love the easycovers blogspot.com site. It's a friggin keeper. I don't know how to say this, but I'm blog illiterate, and couldn't figure out how to post........Its probably staring me in the face, but for now I gotta get these picks off my chest. I'll add to the blog when I get my head outta my blog-tail. But for now, here's the last Insanity Email beore we go Blog.

Blog, it's better than bad, it's BLOG!!!!

So, there's 6 more games to go over for the team bets, but here's an update on the first games once again:

SD @ KC: Sticking to my guns. KC/SD is a divisional game and KC is at home. That is rule #1 from the first NFL Insanity Report: When in doubt, go with the home team. Lookin back at history, the past few years, SD has killed KC even in KC. But that was back when the Chiefs blew and LaDanian was LT (plus he had the facemask that had so many bars on it, it gave 6 out of every 10 people a seizure). But LaDanian Tomlinson is not LT anymore, he's just LaDanian, there's a difference. Things have changed this year. KC is not a contender by no means, but they're better then people think and SD is worse then people think. This doesn't have to be on the team Teaser Bet, but book Adolph betting money line on the Chiefs +180.

IND @ STL: Peyton with a 40th straight 300 yd game. Staying with the Colts to fold the Shams.

CHI @ CIN: Staying away from this game. Well, lets take a look: CIN is 1-2 at home. They lost to DEN in Week 1 when Gus lost his larynx. Then came back to beat PITT in Week 3 and then laid an egg last week to HOU. Da Bears by the way, on the road this year are 1-2 as well. They lost a tight game until the last 2-3 min in the Frozen Tundra of GB in Week 1, then beat the CFL version of the Seahawks in Week 3, and were in tight at ATL last week. I'd say CHI in this one, but the kicker is, CHI has a chance to come out at 1-1 in their 2 game swing on the road and the Bengals have a chance to salvage a .500 record at home in their 2 game home stand. 2 desperate teams. My gut says Da Bears, but my cold feet say stay away from putting money down on this game. Unless..........

GB @ CLEV: This was booked when Bill Simmons said the same thing on his podcast, in that GB is due to bust out from under their radar, and he also added that CLEV is due to have a Cleveland performance and come down to the status of the crappy teams with the other TB/OAK/STL/DET's of the world. GB covers. Book it.

MINN @ PITT: I wrote in my last email that it was this time last year that Favra came back down to earth, but the ol' gut says not yet this week. Maybe not at all. I may be inclined to stay with Paulsen's brother, Ryan "Turpentine" Paulsen's prediction of the Vikes as this years Super Bowl Champs. But that's been his prediction every year since we were playing Tecmo Bowl on the ol' school Nintendo game systems. My thumbs still have scars from those controllers!!!! But take the Turpentine Karma with J-Dawg's decree that Ben Rothlessthanaburger is the "Worst 2-time Super Bowl Winner" of all time and the fact that Pitt is riding a RB that has come outta no where. Favra's hot and AP is a RB that has come out of everyone's Fantasy League as the Top Pick........not a waiver wire pick-up like Rashard "Jake" Mendenhall. Oh and that Money Line pick is a juicy +170 for the Vikes. Me likey.

NE @ TB: stays the same. TB is a hapless team with no talent. Note, Billy Greene, our 2nd year UBC QB has Brady, Moss and Welker in his Fantasy League, and got 103 points alone from those 3 guys last week vs. 43 total points from the team he was matched up with!!! Whoa!!

SF @ HOU: Gonna stick with my gut on this this. SF has Frank "You're Mother's A" Gore coming back from injury against a HOU defense that can't defend the run. HOU has Andre "The Skinny Giant" Johnson against a SF D that can't defend the pass. Johnson is more of a game changer than Gore. Michael Crabtree may start for the Niners this week, and so once again, who do you take in that match-up? Johnson or Craptree? Plus HOU can stick in Steve Slaton who can get yards and keep a defense honest even though the Texans are close to the bottom of the league in Run Offense. San Fran shit the bed at home 2 weeks ago to the ATL, so even a bye-week won't help the Niners.

NYJ @ OAK: I agree with Bill Simmons, in that Mark "Dirty" Sanchez's 5 INT's last week made the spread 6 points from Vegas oddsmakers, rather than the usual 10 points vs. Oakland. But the kicker here, is that Oakland's JaFarcus Russell is still the worst football player in NFL history. He's even worse than "Batman" on Paulsen's and Adolph's bantam community football team back in Grade 10, and he was bad!!! Sanchez won't shit the bed like Donavan did last week, and NYJ's defense will have 1 maybe 2 Pick-Sixes off of Russell's ducks, to add insurance to any Sanchez miscues.

BUF @ CAR: The spreads aren't out yet as everyone waits for the report on BUF QB Trent Edwards' concussion. This game stinks, and with both teams stinking, I say just take the underdog in the teaser, as in whoever the winner is, either it'll be the underdog or the favorite but the fav won't win minus the spread and 6 pt's. NOTE: Carolina's Steve Smith said in the media this week that he's not "an asset" to Carolina anymore. And that doesn't bode well when you gotta differentiate Steve Smith who just 2-3 years ago was the best WR in football as "Carolina's Steve Smith" from the NYG's Steve Smith. With Steve Smith's gripe vs. T.O's weekly crap, this game is henceforth, THE SOUR GRAPES BOWL!!! Take the eventual underdog plus 6 points in the Teaser Bet.

NO @ MIA: It's a hunch, but I go with JDawg. Take the Fish at home. The Dolphin's Wildcat will be used to keep ball possession and Drew Brees on the bench. At +245 for the Fish, this is a juicy bet. Bill Simmon's had this take on his podcast and it sold me.

ATL @ DALL: Again, I stick to my guns here too. On sports.com, 99% of the moneyline bets are for the Falcons as well as 87% for the ATL on the spread. The Cowboys are the Bose Headphones, Ex-BOSE-ed Team of the Week. Romo will be on his choking-great passes rollercoaster and Matt Ryan will disect the heavily over-rated Cowboys D. The ATL is in at +170.

ARI @ NYG: People, and by people, that means Bill Simmon's podcast, think that the Giants secondary are all of a sudden bad because they got shellacked by the Saints last week. Well, that's not on the Football Giants' secondary being horrible, it's just that Naw'lins is that good. I know Arizona has a similar air attack in Fitz and Kurt, but not so much with the NYG at home. I'll take the NYG to cover. What do you guys think?

PHI @ WASH: Just like PHI gave OAK a win last week, WASH will give PHI an easy win this week with the whole play-calling fiasco in the Redskins' camp. Every player as well as Head Coach, Jim Zorn is saying their rattled by giving the play calling duties to Perfect Stranger, Balky Bartalkamous. It's no question that it'd rattle a head coach and team behind closed doors, but to blast one's rattled-ness in the media? This is too much of a circus for WASH to come out with a win.

So bets wise, I'm thinking of taking 4 seperate moneyline bets of KC +180, MINN +170, MIA +245, and ATL +170. It's not a lock for a parlay bet obviously, but cashing out on an upset pick has helped me these past 3 weeks with the DET winover WASH, DEN win over DALL and DEN win over SD. 4 bets is too much, so I really really like the home teams in MIA +245 v. NO and KC +180 v. SD.

Teaser-wise I'm thinking locks at:
IND -7 @ STL
CHI +7.5 @ CIN (This goes with D$'s take that CIN doesn't win big, which I agree with, so the extra half point at 7.5 helps alot)
GB -1 @ CLEV
NE -9 "@" TB
NYJ +1 @ OAK
PHI -1 @ WASH

Uhm, match-up wise these seem like locks, but EVERY friggin game is picking the road-team, that feels weird. Gimme some take fellas, What do you wanna do for the Team Teaser bet?

Other teaser games I'll go with:
KC +11 vs. SD
MINN +10 @ PITT
HOU +3.5 vs. SF
MIA + 12.5 vs. NO
ATL +10 @ DAL
NYG -1 vs. ARI
PHI -0.5 @ WAS

Holla back,
Adolph