NOTE: This is Adolph's Insanity Report received via email
K, so looking at the games, as always there are some tough calls. BUT, it seems like that every week, and this next statement may seem like nexl level shit, but the reason it seems like tough picks is that we, well I (I can't speak for all you guys) tend to overthink the picks at this time of the week, and turn off the ol' hunch-o-meter. So the next level shit is: GO WITH YOUR GUT!!! Stats do help, same goes with streaks, but the bottom line is go with the gut.
With that being said:
SD @ KC: The odds came late, and I'm thinking of riding the Cheifs on the money-line. I may stick to the original take in the first Insanity Report, and take KC as a good value bet at +180. San Diego still has the worst run defense in the league and Larry Johnson has a big game or 2 left in the tank. Point spread wise, just like 8 points was too much to give the Cowboys on the road at KC 2 weeks back, 5 points is too much to give the Lack-of-Charge-ers at KC. There is something to be said for taking care of the ball, and that's what KC does.
And one thing is not known, how a team that loses on a Monday nighter responds the following Sun with a short practice week? Anyone? Well, I say it doesn't bode well for SD.
IND @ STL: Indy covers. STL has no heart. Bob Sanders may return for the Colts this week, he's listed as questionable.
CHI @ CIN: Tough spread. The Money line is not out yet, which may lead to a pick-em. Cin is scrappy but unpredictable and I have no take on the Bears yet. None. Cutler signed his 2 year extension at 15 mill per? Ouch, talk about confidence in medicrity.
GB @ CLEV: Doesn't seem like such a gimme game for GB, but they should cover. If it's bet, then the bettor will be sweating until the last whistle. The reason is that I agree with Bill Simmons, in that Derick Anderson can win ugly, and this week may seem like one of those weeks. If the under-rated defense of GB is ever gonna show up on the perverbial radar, it better be this week.
MINN @ PITT: JDawg likes Pitt. I might too. Favra is en fuego, there's no doubt, but it was around this time last year with the Jets that he strted to come down to earth. But the Vikes are a better team than the Jets.....why? one word: AP!!!! But back to Favra's streak, he had a killer last second comeback at home v. San Fran and then followed that the next week v. Green Bay. He gets a week off with the Lions game and then barely gets by the Ravens. 2 teams playing each other that didn't cover last week. PITT is 1-5 ATS? I honestly have nothing, what do you guys think?
NE @ TB: In England!!!! This gimme game turns into a maybe game because the game is in OLD England rather then NEW England. The spread is rising at NE -15. Right now I still take NE -15. They did it last week vs. a hapless TENN team that has some talent, and they play a hapless team in TB that has no talent. I think the roll we were waiting for the Pats to go one, is happening now.
SF @ HOU: I'm rethinking my original hunch of HOU goin on a bit of a run these next 2 weeks. SF is coming off a bye week and +150 is a not bad value bet. That pretty much f's up my early week 6-pt teaser.
Anyways, I gotta get back to work, more to come,
adolph out.
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