Out of the basement!

Jake Locker leads UW
Huskies to first bowl win
since 2002!

Huskies Win..... Huskies Win..... Huskies Win! 

That's right folks, time for the easy covers staff to get out of the basement and start cashing in on games again.  We got tons of action at the moment with Bowl Season, NFL Week #17, NHL, and some NBA happening.  Hard to keep up!

Bowl season is all about motivation.  Some teams are super happy at the opportunity to play an extra game and others become disspointed they are in a lesser bowl and not the BCS show.  Congrats to the Washington Huskies who were definitely motivated tonight to win their first bowl game in almost a decade.  They easily covered the 14 point spread against an unmotivated #14 Nebraska.  Some money to be had out there with the Dawgs being +390 ML in this matchup - woooo-eeeee that is some good odds!

Early takes for NFL Week #17 follow in line with Bowl season.  Certain teams will be motivated to win this week than others.  See Colts, Rams, Steelers, Ravens, Bucs, Packers, and Giants in order to make playoffs or improve their seeding.  More to follow.....

Outta the Basement: Purdue @ Michigan

It’s been a while since the last College Hoops blog. The Insanity Report Staff and Easycovers Crew have been hard at work with their work in the basement, and it starts with yesterday afternoon’s Big Ten opener for Purdue and Michigan. So here goes:

(11) PURDUE 80 @ MICHIGAN 57

MICHIGAN

Solid nucleus for the future, but right now, their focus is on the abilities of Sophomore PG Darius Morris who has had a great non-conference start to the season, but yesterday looked like he has started to believe his own news clippings. He penetrates too much and forces bad shots and bad highlight passes for TO’s. He suffers from the same dribblitis that Illinois’ Demetri McCamey suffered last year. He’ll dribble east-west too much allowing the defense time to recover and shut down any passing/driving lanes.

They have OK shooting from Junior PG, Stu Douglass and Freshman Forward, Evan Smotrycz, but that’s it from Smotrycz; He’s a horrible one-on-one defender on the wing and will fall asleep leaving his man open. When his check is E’Twaun Moore, it doesn’t bode well for the Wolverines. At 6-9 the dopy Smotrycz offers zero defensive rebounding presence as well. It’s no surprise that Smo-trash fouled out yesterday. Stu Douglass is smooth and is Michigan’s most leveling presence which is key for such a young team, and hopefully Morris.

Redshirt Freshman, Jordan Morgan at 6-8 is a hustling post, but he must gain some l.b.’s to be able to consistently compete in the Big Ten. One of the main returning players in terms of minutes played last year in Junior Forward, Zach Novak, gets tonnes of minutes this year again, but he is as useless as the kid on Two and a Half Men! Novak offers no offensive upside at all and he basically fills the 5th spot on the floor so Michigan doesn’t go Hickory Huskers like when Merle fouls out. (“My team’s on the floor!)

Again, Michigan has some prospects in their freshmen class, but every one of their starters show major defensive deficiencies. Such as in Freshman Guard, Tim Hardaway Jr, who shows signs that he can get on an offensive streak, but shows UNC-like basketball IQ on defense. Michigan will have great streaky moments this year and may steal a game or two, but their inexperience will show when they’re trying to get over the hump and take over a game from one of their mini-streaks.


(11) PURDUE

Tough on Purdue to replace the versatility and basketball IQ of Robbie Hummel, once they lost him for the season with his ACL injury in the preseason. Even with him the biggest weakness for Purdue was their depth. Now that the Big 3 is no more with the loss of Hummel, it’s up to the Big Two in Senior Center, JuJuan Johnson and Senior Guard, E’Twaun Moore. The Big Two delivered yesterday with 21 and 22 point performances respectively.

Starting the game vs. Michigan, they were successful keying off double teams on Johnson and Moore as well as mismatches off of switches to get open looks for Johnson and Moore. Inclusion of other starters like DJ Byrd and Ryne Smith were non existent as Byrd was exposed on defense as well; Smith woke up late in the 1st half, and all of 2nd half to hit some open treys off dribble penetrations for a career high 17 points..

JuJuan Johnson is a huge one-on-one threat in the post coming off of those switches for mismatches and cutting towards the ball, receiving those passes in stride. He is pretty much unstoppable once he receives a pass with both feet in the paint. But he gets John Starks-like hot-and-cold streaks on his touches outside of the paint.

Moore will get his looks on open treys and he’ll be able to create drives to the hoop, IF Purdue keeps their motion offense based around the heavy screening and mismatches attained from those screens. Purdue just doesn’t have the depth to rely on other players creating their own shots or taking the opposing defense’s attention away from Moore and Johnson. They’ll need a shooter to take pressure off the Big Two like they got out of Ryne Smith tonight.

Purdue’s half court defense is solid, especially with the big body of Johnson in the middle. He’s quick enough to drop down help side on baseline drives, and has the length to alter shots. But DJ Byrd is as slow on switching and recovering off of defensive rotations as Dave Adolph is at getting Martin Short jokes. He gave up way too many open 3’s today from Evan Smotrycz. It was the battle of the 2 worst defenders on the court today.

The key for Purdue is to hide their lack of depth by working the shot clock to develop the mismatches and open lanes/looks for Johnson and Moore. Both are great free throw shooters as well, so this half-court spread should get both of the Big 2 to the line for easy points (i.e. Johnson was 10-10 from the charity stripe last night). They need those throws to limit the beatings they’ll be taking from gauntlet that is the Big Ten schedule. On D, they just have to keep doing what they’re doing and bench DJ Byrd!!!

Don’t let the score fool you, Michigan was in this game for the first 40 minutes with their peskyness, but Purdue Head Coach, Matt Painter showed many looks on offense to free up The Big Two. Painter and Purdue should ruffle some feathers in the Big Ten this year, but for Dean Smith’s sake, stay healthy!!!!

NFL Week 15 - The Week of the Quaterback

So many QB stories this week.  Which leads us to our 5 best bets heading into kickoff:

McNabb can't wait for season to end

Washington @ Dallas (-7)
That smug look on Donavan McNabb's face (to the right) says it all.  Rex Freaking Grossman is the starting QB for the Redskins.  Enough said.  Redskins 17  Dallas 35

New Orleans (Pk) @ Baltimore
After the Monday night game, not so sure anymore about the Ravens.  The Saints are hot so let's keep riding them!   Saints 33  Ravens 30

Detriot (+6) @ Tampa Bay.
Too many injuries for the Bucs after last week.  This will be a close game with the Lions having a chance to finally snap their road losing streak.

Atlanta (-7) @ Seattle.
If the Falcons are motivated they should be able to take care of busines here before their big showdown against New Orleans new week.  Falcons 31  Seahawks 20

Chicago (-7) @ Minnesota
Third string QB for Minnesota as we play this game in the outdoor stadium of the Minnesota Golden Gopher.  Bears 20  Vikings 6

Good luck this week.

NFL Week 14 - The Week of the Backdoor Cover

Week #14: AKA the Back Door Cover

Week #14 of the NFL Season definitely has a theme to it.  That theme:  The Back Door Cover.

Twice this week we got burned by some rather tragic back door covers on our picks.  First of course was one of the all time worst ever in the Colts game on Thursday.  (See our earlier post from Saturday on that one.)  But then there were a couple more.

The Redskins, who were +2 dogs at kickoff vs the Bucs were down a touchdown with only seconds left in their game.  To their Credit the Redskins had dominated the game, running all over the Bucs Defense and should have been ahead as FG kicker Gano shanked a few field goals in the game.   The Redskins somehow magically find a way to drive down for the tying TD with 9 seconds left and are an extra point away from a tie game.  Betters on the Bucs were hoping for OT and a potential cover in OT.... only to have the Redskins botch to PAT and the Bucs win by 1.  No Cover.  Exteremely fustrating for bettors. The Redskins are a bad team, but the Bucs got a lot of injuries now and will have trouble covering games the rest of the year.

With gambling gods really against us this week and kicking us with two tragic back-door covers, my Monday night pick of Baltimore -3 had me absolutely messed up.  The Ravens were up the entire game.  Much like the Colts, they were up 21 points at one point, but didn't manage the clock well either down the stretch .  Down 8 with 2 minutes left, the Ravens somehow allowed the Texans to tie this game up with 20 seconds left.   (Note to Ravens: run the ball on 3rd and 2 with 2:50 left and you might not have needed OT!  You run cthe lock at least or maybe pick up the first down!) 

Fortunately the 2-point convert worked for the Texans to get the game into OT.  Matt Shaub then bailed us out and threw a pick-6 for a touchdown to the Ravens.  The dissapointment/shock on the Texans and their fans was obvious, but we were happy.  Preventing a third straight demoralizing back-door cover from almost killing us.  The gambling gods finally took pity after a beat down weekend.

Be thankful for a bit of Monday night magic, regroup and get ready to bring it strong for Week #15.  Lines to be studied tomorrow.  D$ Out.

NFL Weather the story of Week #14

Metrodome on Sunday morning

Looks like Brett Favre may have played his last game at the Metrodome.   20+ Inches of snow has falled in Minnesota and caused the roof to collapse (see right).   Just announced that they will be playing the game on Monday night at 7:20EST in Detriot at Ford Field. (Fox).  Gotta think next week's MNF game gets moved too.

Favre has gone on record saying that he could not have played today if the game had happened, and the streak of 298 straight starts looks to be over as 30 hours more preparation isn't going to be enought to get him ready for tomorrow's game.

Both teams will be sluggish with extra travel and being taken out of their routines.  Might lean towards an UNDER in this game, depending how the total gets adjusted.

Bad weather is also in Chicago.  The tundra for the DA Bears game vs the Patriots will be frozen and covered in fluffy white stuff today.  The Total of 37 is interesting as first lean would be to take the UNDER here.   But remember that the Patriots won 57-0 last year in the snow against the Titan so that isn't an easy bet.   The difference this time will be the up to 50 MPH winds expected.  The UNDER is feeling like a good play at the moment.

Gotta luv this time of year.   Enjoy the show.... D$ Out

NFL Week #14 - Countdown to Kickoff

George St. Pierre easily took down Josh Koscheck (as expected) on Saturday and retained his title in front a crazy home crowd at the Bell Centre.

Fans who followed our picks must have felt like Koscheck does now after the Thursday night game.  An absolutely tragic back-door cover by the Titans on the last play of the game.  Bill Simmons had a great take on this game as the Titans were absolutely crazy not to kick a field goal earlier - needing two scores anyways - and try the on-side afterwards to have a chance at winning.  Even a 10 year old playing Madden would know to do this!  Having a touchdown to lose by 2 points on the last play of the game did them absolutely no good.  Brings out the 'Vegas Controlled' conspiracy theories though.

So we will rebound and come back strong this Sunday with our 5 best bets for NFL Week #14:

Oakland @ Jacksonville (-4.0)
The Jaguars have been playing surprisingly good this season - manhandled Tennessee last week running the ball and played strong defense.  Not a good spot for Oakland as they play the early game travelling from the West Coast.  The Jags want to keep there one game lead on the Colts heading to their showdown next week.  The line drops from -6.0 to -4.0 for this tilt  after a Raiders win last week which gives us some value here.   Raiders 17  Jacksonville 27.

Cincinnati (+9.0) @ Pittsburgh
Mostly a gut call here, but the Bengals are due for a unexpected win or at least will lose a divisional match up by less than 10 points.  (A few weeks ago these two teams were only separated by 6.)   Lots of injuries for the Steelers at the moment, so take the points here.   Bengals 17  Steelers 20.

Tampa Bay (-3.0) @ Washington
Again a gut call, but Washington did not put much effort last week into their divisional matchup against the Giants and won't be motivated against the Bucs.   McNabb looks terrible with no weapons around him.  A couple key injuries to the Bucs had me doubting a bit, but they proved this season that they win against the lower level teams and will rally to stay in the playoff hunt.  Riding Jassssh Freeman baby!   Bucs 28  Redskins 20.

Kansas City @ San Diego (-9.5)
Brodie Croyle is the QB for the Chiefs after Matt Cassel had an appendectomy surgery this week.  He is a lifetime 0-9 as a starter.  Enough said.  The Chargers will have revenge on their minds from Week #1 and get it and get back into the playoff hunt.  Chiefs 13  Chargers 38

St. Louis (+9.5) @ New Orleans
Keep riding the Rams who are 9-3 so far this season ATS.  Sam Bradford has this team tied for first in the NFC West and we think they have a solid chance to cover this large spread.  Upset special take the RAMS 31 Saints 30.

$5 Parlay of the week:  JAX -4, CIN +9, CLE +1, GB -7, ATL -7, TB -3, STL +9.5, NE -3, DEN -4, & DAL +4. 
(Bodog wouldn't allow the SD/KC game in any parlays as of 11:00pm on Sat. night otherwise take SD instead of DEN.)

Good Luck this week.

The Gonzaga Report: Bulldogs Still Looking For Identity

GONZAGA 59 @ WASHINGTON STATE 81

Before we get started, it was great to see old Seattle Supersonic play-by-play guy, Kevin Calabro calling this game for FSN. Calabro, calls a great game with great monikers and he'll always get big integrity props by staying in the Great Northwest once the SuperSonics became the ZombieSonics (as Bill Simmons call them) when they moved to Oklahoma City. Calab's and color commentator, Marques Johnson call a great game ala their old school days in the late '90's.

Alright, enough deflecting......sorry Paulsen, it must be said......The Zag's are rebuilding right now. They lost more, in graduating guard Matt Bouldin last year, then most people realized. At best, Gonzaga may pick it up once their WCC schedule starts, when hopefully they find their identity. The loss of the ball handling skills in Bouldin, have left the Bulldogs point guards look like their playing Marco Polo rather then lead the offense.

Soph. Forward, Elias Harris and Sr. Guard, Steven Gray are the focal points in Gonzaga's scoring, but they need that missing point guard to deliver them the rock. Instead, both Harris and Gray are needed to handle the ball which takes away from their strengths, and hence they seem just as lost as the whole team vs. Wazoo's zone tonight.

Gonzaga did make a game of it at half, by being down by 6 after chipping away a 19 point Washington State lead early in the 1st half. But as soon as they chipped away, Wazoo built the lead back to the 18-25 point lead they held throughout the 2nd half. Without the presence of a ball handler to deliver the rock to any cutters within Wazoo's zone tonight, there was no leadership coming from Gonzaga. The Zags were too bunched together on offense, making it easy for the Washington State zone defense to double-team a Zag post without any threat of a kick-out pass.

Speaking of posts, Jr. Center, Robert Sacre continues to start alright in the first half of games and then slowly implode in the 2nd half with soft post moves and slow reads on defense. Gonzaga Head Coach, Mark Few further demonstrated his search for an identity tonight, playing 10 players over 14 minutes. This is not uncommon when you're down by 20 points throughout the game, but there were many combinations of offensive looks, that Few seemed like he was grasping at straws trying to find any combination that would work.

Redshirt Freshman, David Stockton did demonstrate some quicks as did Paulsen and Adolph favorite, Kelly Olynyk. These 2 players should definitely make some appearances in a starting line-up or 2 before the WCC schedule starts after Christmas.

Right now, Gonzaga looks like it's set to relinquish their decade long dominance of the WCC, but as much as they're struggling to find an identity, they do have 10-11 players that Coach Few could mold into a threatening rotation.

WASHINGTON STATE

Wazoo will go as far as 6-6 guard-wing Klay Thompson will take them. He had over 20 points in the second half today as he was a threat on the wing of Wazoo's zone as well as en fuego from down town. But Washinton State played well during their non-conference sked last year and imploded in the Pac-10 schedule. So we'll wait and see if Wazoo is for real come January.

Thursday Night Football - Week #14

Some solid hunches from Crazydavo on Tuesday were blown up by his kryptonite team of the early part of the season - the Syracuse Orange.  He will continue to bring it strong as the season progresses and those hunches will pay out big.  Now a quick take for Thursday Night Football.

Indianapolis (-3) @ Tennessee 
(NFL Network 8:20pm EST)

Peyton Manning is the story of Colts for the past month.  He is playing some of the worst football of this career throwing INTs at an amazing rate.  The Colts do not have much of a running game at all which is putting more pressure on Peyton.

You gotta think he is gonna get some of these problems figured out over another week of film as this team needs a divisional win this week.  The Titans have been in free fall the past few weeks and having to hope that Kerry Collins will be your starting QB is not a good sign.  We like the idea of the Colts only needing to cover 3 points in prime time - when a motivated Manning is at his best.

Kudos to you, if you grabbed this game early in the week with the spread at Colts -3.  If you did not get this price, not to worry, the -3.5 shouldn't make you sweat too much!

Colts 31  Titans 21