Saturday Morning News and Notes

NCAA College Basketball:  Hummel retears ACL
Robbie Hummel of Purdue re-tears his ACL on Saturday morning - out for the season.  Check out the story on ESPN.  http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=5691032


NFL:  Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest Week #6 Now Posted
Be sure to check out what the Vegas sharps are picking in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest before laying down your cheese this week.  Check out the details here:  http://www.lvhilton.com/Supercontest

NFL: Starting QBs for Week #6
Teams with QB issues due to injuries have listed their starters for Week #6...

Browns :  Colt McCoy

Eagles : Kevin Kolb

Raiders : Jason Cambell
Packers : Aaron Rodgers (probable)
(Source  ESPN)

Saturday Night Jump Around in Wisconsin

Saturday College Football has kicked off for another week. Canadians miss out on being able to watch one of the best college traditions in sports during the #1 OSU vs #18 Wisconsin Badgers. The 4th Quarter Jump Around. (As game is on ESPNU 7:00pm EST.)

Here's hoping that the Badgers can hang tough vs mighty #1 and then we can start cheering hard for the upset. (Badgers are listed as a 4.5 point underdawg at the moment.)

If you have no idea what the jump around is - then crawl out from under your rock and check out this video. Camp Randall goes crazy with the stadium jumping around to 'House of Pain'.  The Fans, Cheerleaders, Mascots, the band, and usually even the opponent join in on the fun. Crazy good atmosphee and definitely something I think may need to be added to my bucket list. Enjoy!

DOES THE UNDERDOG PREVAIL FOR YET ANOTHER WEEK??

Alrighty then, well….lets see if the run of the underdog will hold up again this week. Something's gotta give, cuz there are some rough and tumble spreads this week.

Are there ever any easy spreads any week???? As Herm Edwards said one time, "We gamble to win the bet!!!........Hellllloooooo!?!?!?!? Uhh, uhhmm uhhhh ahhhh this whole conversation bothers me!!" There's never any easy bets, we're gambling here folks!!! To the degenerate-mobile!

STL +8.5 vs. SD
San Diego's special teams are atrocious, but St. Louis is going through the 1988 Dallas Cowboy right of passage where they are in a rebuilding phase where they will get the tar beat out of them no matter how good they are or how much talent/potential they have.  But this is still a collision of 2 ugly's, and 8.5 is too much for either team to win by. Rams cover.

HOU -4.5 vs. KC
Every bone in my body tells me to bet KC….hard!!!! But this hunch is superseded by the borderline Law of Costanza that applies to the Houston Texans and my betting on them. First off, I've laid off betting on Texans games since Week 1, but regardless of whether I bet for or against or feel that they will or won't cover, the Texans do the exact opposite. So since I think KC will win this game, and that Houston will tank, the Law of Costanza states that the opposite will happen. Unfortunately Houston covers. Cohhhh-stan-zaahh!!!

BAL +3 @ NE
I'm not a real big fan of Baltimore, but I respect these old dogs. Plus they've had a harder schedule then the Pats and the Pats are reeling from their roster changes from trading Maroney to trading Moss the Baby. When the Big Hoodie is revamping his master plan mid-season, then the Pats are in a world of hurt.

TB +4.5 vs. Nawlins
As much respect I have for The Easy Bree-zy, and that they can't tank 2 straight games, the notion of a Super Bowl Hangover supersedes the East Bree-zy respeck. Plus, this has to be the coming out party for
under-rated QB, Josh Freeman and the under-valued Bucs.

PHI -3 vs. ATL
This can go either way. And the Vick Principle still rings true even if he doesn't play. And that is, stay away. I'm going to give the Eagles one more week to scout to see if I can get a hold of where they're coming from. The home field barrage of batteries and Micheal Irvin broken-neck-boo's should reign supreme over the inconsistent Yippe Ki-yay Mr. Falcons!!

DET +10 @ NYG
LOCK LOCK LOCK of the week!!!!!!!!!!!! Who cares about the new Meadowlands and the G-Men being at home. After watching full games of the Lions, the headlines read: "Lions actually pretty good". Their D-Line is sick, maybe even sicker then the G-Men's media-hyped D-Line and QB Shaun Hill actually doesn't suck. Up in the air whether Detroit will win this game, but they'll keep it close either way, and 10 points is a rare gift from the handicappers. I even bet a rare 2 units on the Lions for this one.

CLE +13.5 @ PIT
Cleveland not as shitty as people think. Actually, they are pretty well coached. Not nearly as well coached as the Steel Curtain. But this is a divisional game and 2 touch downs is a bit too much still. But either way, I'm staying away from this game. The return of Big Ben Rothless-corner-a-co-ed-er is too much of an unpredictable variable. He can either kill it on Sunday or flop. Stayin' away.

CHI -6.5 vs. SEA
Seattle is downright atrocious on the road. Consider this the number 2 gift from the handicappers this week.

DEN +3 vs. NYJ
NYJ are a fraud. Denver is rebuilding. And the only constant is the Mile High. Whether it's the altitude, no matter how shitty a Bronco's may be, the Mile High advantage should prevail or the inconsistent Jets and Fraudchise.

OAK +6.5 vs. SF
Gift #3 from the handicappers. Alex Smith is so bad at QB, that he is venturing into JaFarcus Russell territory!!!!!!!!! And Oakland W's have been due to capitalizing off takeaways which JaAlex Smith will giveth to the Raiders!!!

MIN -1.5 vs. DAL
2 desperate OVER-VALUED teams. Going with the home team, just cuz.

IND -3 @ WAS
Although Peyton covered last week (barely) vs. KC, he won't have 2 straight sub-par weeks in a row, and Washington can pull 2 W's outta their bum in consecutive weeks

TEN -3 @ JAX
Chris Johnson bust-out game the Monday Nighter!!!
PS. This Saturday…..Doc Halladay vs. Lincicum in Game of the NLCS. How is the run total not set at 0.5!?!?!? I'm taking under 6.0 runs this Saturday.

CrazyDavo Out!!!

Another Week... Another Reporter Scandel

Jets reporters are back in the news again.  Website Deadspin posted a story which included several voicemails allegedly sent by Brett Favre to Jenn Sterger (pictured below), who worked for the Jets while Favre was with the team

Sterger now is a TV personality for the Versus network and former Playboy Playmate.  Favre tried not to let all the extra attention affect his play, but he stepped up at the end of the Monday Night game to throw a pick six to seal the deal for the 1-3 Vikings.  Killing a cover the team was on pace for - a trend seen a few times during Week #5.  (See Cinn vs TB or KC vs IND.)

The 2010 season has been all about the underdawgs.  During Week #5, the afternoon games saw the dawgs not only cover, but win outright - CrazyDavo made some serious cheese off of that play.  NFL Dawgs have been 29-15 ATS the past three weeks.  Truly Amazing.

Will the trend continue.... lets have an early look at some key matchups heading into Week #6:

San Diego @ St. Louis (+8.5)
The Rams were hanging with the Lions for the first half, but with receiver Mark Clayton going down, Bradford looked a bit lost in the passing game.  The Rams will game plan a little better and be ready to rebound at home after a blowout loss.
San Diego just came off a loss to the Raiders and is now on the road favoured by more than a touchdown.  From our blog entries from Week #5, we like the trend of the dawg getting lots of points when playing a team who just lost.  Lots of points expected here.  Bolts 34, Rams 28

Kansas City @ Houston (-4.5)
Lots of money being won with the Chiefs this season as they have looked good against some respectable teams.  Gotta feel that this team might have thrown a lot into their matchup against the Colts in Week #5 and have a chance to come out a little flat here against the Texans.  Meanwhile the Texans will be looking to continue their zig-zap trend and rebound off a beat down by the Giants.  The Texans secondary is terrible, but don't think the Chiefs Matt Cassel has the arm or the receivers to exploit it.  (See exhibit A : Dwayne Bowe)  Houston gets back Jacoby Jones and Andre Johnson's ankle will be a week more rested and should have a big day here.  Liking the Texans to win big to keep pace in the competitive AFC South.  Texans 30, Chiefs 13.

Detriot +10 @ NY Giants
Pretty scary to pick either team right now.  The Lions have been covering their games, but might be missing Megatron which affects their passing game.  Seeing this game a pass at the moment pending further review.

Cleveland @ Pittburgh (-14)
Rookie QB Colt McCoy may get the start here because of injuries - gotta like the Steelers here to win big as Big Ben is back in the lineup at home coming off a bye.  Pittsburgh 38, Cleveland 3.

Other leanings so far this week....
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (+4.5)  - Gonna watch the line this week to see which way this goes as liking the Bucs +6 or +7 as the underdawg here.  Saints are not playing well at the moment.
Oakland (+6.5) @ San Francisco  -  a team that is 0-5 should not be favoured by a touchdown.
Atlanta (+1.0) @ Philly - the dirty birds seem to be underrated this season and quietly are now 4-1.

NFL Pre-game Kickoff - Week #5

Another crazy week of college football today with #1 Alabama getting taken down by South Carolina.  Love it!  Now time to move onto the NFL and getting ready for a big Sunday.

A few updates to report as Jay Culter now has been listed as doubtful and Todd Collins (half brother of J-Dawg's favourite drink, Tom Collins) will be starting QB for the Bears.  With this unexpected turn, this is no longer a best bet this week.  I still like the Bears defense to step up and win this for them, but not enough to lock this down.  Instead....

Atlanta -3 @ Cleveland
The more I look at this game, the more I like the dirty birds to cover.  With Delhome starting and Cleveland's primary offense, Peyton Hillis, banged up this should be good chance for the Falcons to get a road win here.   ATL 31, Cleveland 13

Philladelphia @ San Francisco (-3)
Keven Kolb at QB this week for the eagles, and the Niners are now super desparate for a win here.  They should come out strong during the Sunday Night game and take down the Eagles here.  49ers 23, Eagles 17

Vegas sharps have some love for Green Bay (-3) to cover over Washington, and Liking Arizona (+7) over New Orleans.  Thinking is New Orleans hasn't been anyone by 7 this year and Arizona plays well at home and will be motivated after getting knocked out of the playoffs last year by New Orleans.

Good Luck on Sunday.
D$ Out.

Behind the bets podcast - Oct 6th

Great gambling podcast today on behind the bets with ESPN's Chad Millman. Interviewing Vegas wise guy Bryan Leonard - definitely worth a listen.
http://search.espn.go.com/chad-millman/audio/7

Dogs Rule - NFL Week #3 & #4

NFL Week #3 and #4 were all about the dogs. Week #3 dogs were 11-5 ATS and the trend continued in Week #4 as dogs were 9-5. D$ has been leaning on the favs a bit too much leading to less than desirable results. Let's see if we get this straightened out heading into Week #5.

 

Gambling lesson learned from Week #4:
Teams coming off a straight-up loss who are being favoured by more than 14 points rarely cover.   (Especially if the dog is coming off a loss.)   Classic examples of this theory can be seen this past week with Green Bay +14.5 vs Lions and the Saints +14.5 vs Panthers.  In Week #3 it was the Bills being 15 point dogs to the Patriots.  The theory behind this play is that the favoured team is not playing that well at the moment, which is why they lost, and asking them to lay an enormous amount of points may be asking too much for them.

 

Looks like we have a very tough slate of games this week. New format has D$ picking his 5 best bets each week. The idea is similar to the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest which Bill Simmons mentions regularly in his podcast. Definitely worthy of checking out on Saturday morning if you are struggling with your picks. http://www.lvhilton.com/Supercontest

 

St. Louis (+3) @ Lions  - Total 42
Sam Bradford appears to be the real deal in his first month in the NFL as he has helped the Rams become respectable and already double their win total from last year. Last week they took the Seahawks to the woodshed and beat them - nothing flukey here folks. The RAM defense is not terrible now - and don't laugh - but they have an outside shot of winning the NFC West with a .500 record. The Lions play hard every game and I would like to back them here, but they don't deserve to be laying points to anyone until they have won a game or two. With Stafford out, the Rams got quite a bit of momentum, and I'll take the points in what should be a high scoring (read: OVER) affair. Rams 31, LIONS 28.

 

Chicago (-3) @ Carolina
Jay Culter's first half in the Monday night game exposed some major issues withe Bears offensive line who played terribly.  Teams with a good pass rush will cause Culter to have to reach for the Advil bottle on Monday morning - which is why the motivated Giants won that game.   The Kitties, simply don't have any pass rush and this means a motivated Culter (he is scheduled to start), will have more time to find his receivers.  We don't see the Kitties getting up for this game as they put everything into their big game the previous week against the Saints and came up short.  This line would have been Bears by 4 or 6 a week before and I like them to keep Carolina winless in 2010.   Bears 24,  Kitties 13

 

NY Giants @ Houston (-3)
The Giants will get some love after their impressive Sunday night Culter beat down but the fact remains this team has some significant flaws.  Vegas is saying these two teams are even with the Texans only being favoured by 3, which doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense.  The Texans will get back Defensive Rookie of the Year LB Cushing after serving his suspension for taking performance enhancing drugs.  He will be extremely motivated to stop the Giants strength which is their run game.  With the Giants being unable to run Mario Williams will be in Eli's face like he was against his brother Peyton in Week #1.   Giants 16 ,  Houston 31

 

New Orleans (-6.5) @ Arizona
This matchup is too hard to pass up if you get the right side of the spread here.  If you can get 6.5 I like the Saints who will have a QB mismatch as Arizona is now turning to undrafted rookie QB Max Hull to lead them into this game.  Arizona is lucky to be 2 and 2 and we'll see a motivated Saints squad after two less than stellar performances at home.  Saints 23,  Arizona 10

 

Last game still up in the air at the moment.....

• Kinda like ATL -3 @ Cleveland, especially if Delhome is expected to be the starter.
• The 49ers have been my kriptonite, but look juicy as favourites -3 over the wounded and travelling Eagles.
• But I really like Denver to cover 7.5 vs the Ravens.   Ravens are set for a let down game and if you can get on the 'right side' of the line this could be a strong play for Denver squad that is getting lots of love from the vegas sharps at the moment.

 We'll have to examine this last game as we get closer to the weekend.

Countdown to Kickoff - NFL Week #4

Recovering after a wacky college football Saturday. Crazy finish to the LSU and Tennessee game yesterday afternoon. Now it's time to focus energy on the NFL and try to bounce back after a sub-par Week #3.

Best Bets for Week #4:

ATL -6.5 vs SFO
This was the first game I really liked this week. After watching the 49ers burn my money last week, time to get on the winning side here! The dirty birds have been at home the past two seasons and the 49ers are simply just not as good as everyone thought they were. Here's hoping walterfootball.com is incorrect with their prediction for this week. We like ATL big. ATL 31, SFO 10.

NYJ -5.5 vs BUF
Buffalo has given up on Trent Edwards and waived their starting quarterback. Wow! No wonder the Bills are the worst team in football with terrible management as they couldn't even muster a draft pick for opening day QB. As long as the Jets don't have a mental let-down after beating NE and MIA they should win this one easily. Jet 24, Bills 9.

IND -8.0 vs JAX
Jacksonville looks really bad to start the season, and with all the weapons Indy has for Peyton looks like another tough week for the 25,000 fans who will be watching this home game. Historically the last 5 meetings have been close (within 7 pts), but Jax had better teams back then and not too afraid to lay eight here. Colts 35, Jax 13


Also have leanings towards:
Ten -6.5 over Den : Not sold that Denver is good and CJ should break one.
GB -14.0 over Det : Detriot is about to run into GB buzz saw here.
STL +2.0 over Sea : Seattle not a good road squad, STL riding momentum.

Good luck this week.