Sunday was a tough day, bit sad to see good teams like Iona and Middle Tennessee stumble as they will no longer make the big dance. But you gotta win to get in and that what makes the tourney so awesome and provides amazing drama.
This weekend provided further confirmation that the PAC12 is really bad this year. Arizona losing to Arizona State was a big shocker, and now forces them to win the PAC12 championship to get into the big dance as their bubble has burst. California losing to Stanford hands Washington the PAC12 conference title. It is not crazy to think the PAC12 is a one bid league if Washington wins the PAC12 tourney this weekend. California now had better make it to at least the PAC12 finals to keep their at large status alive.
Michigan State getting up big and then collapsing and losing to Ohio State was a bit of a shocker. But the big news from that game was forward Branden Dawson tearing his ACL. That injury may have longer term implications on MSU making the Final 4 as many have been predicting recently. We will see how MSU adjusts during this weekend's Big 10 tourney.
Onto todays games - like a few today:
Bowling Green (-11.5) vs Central Michigan - (4:00pm PST tip off)
The MAC has been a pretty shizzo conference this year, but we see a significant class mis-match here worthy of our hard earned cash. Central Michigan (10-20 on the season) has an RPI of 290 and their 'best' win was Friday night at home to Western Michigan who's RPI is 209. Bowling Green (16-14 on the season) has an RPI of 142 and has beaten Temple and Ohio (two top 100 RPI teams) and their worst loss on the season was on the road vs Eastern Michigan (RPI#225). Bowling Green is 12-3 at home, which is where they are playing for Round #1 of the MAC tourney. They are a solid play to at least win tonight - just like they did by beating CMU by 13 points on Jan 25th - very solid in a 8 or 10 pt teaser.
Oral Roberts (-8) vs Western Illinois - (4:00pm PST tip off)
Semifinal matchup in the Summit League has #1 seeded Oral Roberts (17-1) plays #4 seed Western Illinois (9-9) tonight. The Summit League appears to be a showdown between Oral Roberts (RPI#38) and South Dakota State (RPI#53) for the conference championship, not sure if either team has enough of an at-large resume to get in the big dance, so expect a motivated Oral Roberts. Western Illinois has given ORU a bit of trouble, losing by only 1 at home back on January 12th and by 10 on the road on Feb 11th. Expect ORU to get the win tonight and advance, best to put them in an 8 or 10 pt teaser as they could win by 2 or 20 in my eyes.
South Dakota State (-12) vs Southern Utah - (6:30pm PST tip off)
This Summit League matchup shouldn't be as tight as the Oral Roberts vs Western Illinois game. South Dakota State has won both meetings vs SUU this season and is ballin' right now - winners of 6 straight and 9-1 in their last 10 games. Southern Utah got lucky as Oakland absolutely collapsed in the final 3 minutes of their quarterfinal matchup last night to give away an 11 point lead - really SUU shouldn't even be playing this game. SUU can feel happy to get the extra game, but this shouldn't be close. Strong play towards South Dakota State today in any teaser.
Davidson (-12.5) vs Western Carolina - (6:00pm PST tip off)
Davidson (24-7) is clearly the class of Southern league and should be able to punch their dance ticket with a win over Western Carolina (17-17) tonight. Davidson has played a strong season, claiming a huge win @ Kansas and decent showings vs tourney teams Duke, Vandy and Wichita State.
Western Carolina had an easy draw and is playing their fourth game in 4 nights and don't expect them to have much left in the tank vs the best team in the league. Feel good about getting to the conference finals, but they are going down hard tonight. Davidson in a teaser and may take them -12.5 against the spread, should be a big mismatch tonight.
In other games.....
Strong lean to Gonzaga (-3) to beat St.Mary's to win the WAC. Both teams are dancing, but feel Gonzaga is playing better than St. Mary's is right now and Gonzaga wants to exact some revenge for not winning the conference title for the first time in years. Sacre is a big force for the Zags that can wear down other teams. Should be a good one to watch.
Small lean to VCU (-2.5) over Drexel. This should be another great game tonight. Winner gets the autobid for the under-rated Colonial, which VCU needs a bit more than Drexel - Drexel should get an at large bid. Drexel is scary, winners of 19 straight games, and will be tough out in the tourney for whoever they match up against. Like the experience factor for Shaka Smart's team who had to run the table as an underdog last year and made it to the Final Four.
Fairfield vs Loyola MD is a coin flip MAAC championship game. These two teams split the season series with each team winning in the others building. Fairfield is the hotter team coming into this game and beat #1 seed Iona which was impressive. Loyola MD has had a much easier road beating Sienna and Niagara. Slight lean to Fairfield, but not sure you should bet this one.
Eastern Michigan (-8) should beat terrible (4-25) Northern Illinois tonight, but don't trust it. Last time these teams played it was a 3 point game. Don't get sucked it, just be happy that in two days both of these teams will be out of the running.
Good luck and enjoy the games!
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